Be also good to hear from any members that have constructed their own goals imminent tables - perhaps looking at a shorter time frame of say two weeks to see if that ups the prediction factor.

The big problem I have with this table is it discounts players who have scored more than one goal in last 10gws or whatever it is.

There is absolutely nothing which says a player is less likely to score because he scored last week and the week before.

It's like roulette, if 0 comes up this spin it is just as likely to come up next spin.

So why would I look at these players over someone who has better stats and is scoring regularly? I don't want someone who hasn't been scoring and might score next week. I want someone who is most likely to score next week. Whether they were scoring previously or not makes no difference.

It's a concept called variance. Look it up and you will understand the failings of the goals imminent table.

The problem with shots on target is that it doesn't account for, say, big chances missed, and whether getting the chances is a good thing or missing them shows confidence is shot.

Ibra in the stoke game is case in point. More shots on target, but chances like that one in the first few minutes are harder to miss the target than hit it. In that case, an SOT is almost a bad thing, because it looked timid, like a player who doesn't trust he can score with his feet from open play - which, unless I'm mistaken, he's only done twice at United so far (once from in the box).

Whilst I agree that adding Big Chances Missed does improve the table, I think it's quite difficult to jump to any major conclusion without actually seeing these chances. They might have all been spectacular saves from the goalkeeper, or they may have missed the target from 8 yards out. I think that seeing lots of big chances missed is reassurance that Ibra is getting some very good chances, and as we all know that he is a fantastic striker he will start putting them away.

Cheers to Jonty and everyone who has contributed to this thread - really good stuff.

So to recap there is obvious value in finding out why certain players are scoring well, whether its putting away big chances or shooting frequently and on target.

One Stat to Rule them all - http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/my-stats-tables/view/11275/

Balders' Hot Shots - http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/public-stats-tables/view/12374/

There's also value in looking at who is messing up, to see if they have any good stats to convince us they can turn it around. This table also contains information about those who are scoring AND messing up. This table is particularly interesting as when sorting by last four gwks a player I was tempted to get in is actually really messing up his chances. Could that mean he is capable of scoring far more? Or is losing confidence?

Can't Hit a Barn Door - http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/my-stats-tables/view/16995/

Then there's goals imminent that strips out goals scored to showcase only those who are getting lots of chances but failing to convert them. This then takes out those like the player I mentioned above who are scoring as well as messing up. See article for link.

Conclusion - I think there is value in all three but ultimately the best predictor of goals, as has been said before over the years here, is likely to be goals scored- as that indicates a confident player, with good all round attacking skills playing in a good side.

What these statistics all lack is the factoring in of opposition strength.
When only considering the last Four matches a players statistics are
likely to be wildly different if their last Four fixtures were Utd City Arsenal and Tottenham
than if they were Hull, Bournemouth, Stoke and Boro

The table has always done well, so don't forget that. You had the correct main stats. You could say which on the table is likely to come off it and which aren't. So just colour code the better options

"Dimitri Payet’s one shot on target didn’t bode well but nevertheless he still scored. His shots on target to goal rate over the last few games doesn’t look sustainable. But he is a player with such accuracy from set pieces that he could be an anomaly in terms of the table."

This is the problem with relying on any one table or any one metric (as has been observed above).

Payet actually has the 3rd highest number of goal attempts among midfielders (4 weeks). You say that "his shots on target to goal rate over the last few games doesn’t look sustainable" but his attempts to goal rate looks more than sustainable (1 goal from 17 attempts). Last season he put around 40% of his attempts on target and scored 9 goals from 28 on-target efforts. If there is a reversion due here it may actually be towards a better SoT percentage and more goals, not less.

It is true that Payet's attempts are more often from outside the box than with some others. But his set piece expertise is such that this may also matter less than with others (as you observed). In addition, the volume of attempts show how central to West Ham's attacking play he is.

Finally (and here's the point) he also leads among all midfielders for chances created. Almost double any Liverpool mid for example (19 to 10). This may not make him "goals imminent" but it does make him "points imminent". And points is what we are after, whether they come through through goals, assists or BPs is less important.

I would suggest you also add a 'threat' column , just like big chances missed.