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The Premium Striker Conundrum

19 December 2016 64 comments
THE REAL RON ⚽ THE REAL RON ⚽
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As alluded to by Jonty’s recent hot topic, Fantasy Football managers could now be blessed – or perhaps cursed – with the choice of four premium strikers: Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Diego Costa, Sergio Aguero and Harry Kane.

So, how do we best exploit the scoring power of these four stellar players?

There are various options. Some will have their favourites, some will be happy to ignore one or the other. Some even may attempt to find the funds to have three of them in their strike force.

One alternative though is to ‘play the fixtures’. There are pros and cons to this method and people will rightly highlight its flaws – “burning transfers”… “ignoring form”… “fixture-proof strikers”… “planning too far ahead”… etc.

However, I think it is at least a method worth exploring in this tricky situation. The below works on the assumption that you have Kane and Ibrahimovic in place for Gameweek 18, but here is how it could be done:

GAMEWEEK 18:

No transfer.

Play: Kane (sot) and Ibrahimovic (SUN)

Avoid: Costa (ban) and Aguero (ban)

GAMEWEEK 19:

No transfer.

Play: Kane (wat) and Ibrahimovic (MID)

Avoid: Costa (STO) and Aguero (poor fixture away to Liverpool)

(You could add an extra transfer here to have Costa for one GW (STO) instead of Kane (wat).

However, I have attempted not to add too many luxury transfers to keep it a realistic number of transfers in total.)

GAMEWEEK 20:

One transfer. Kane to Aguero.

Play: Aguero (BUR) and Ibrahimovic (whm)

Avoid: Costa (tot) and Kane (CHE)

GAMEWEEK 21:

One transfer. Ibrahimovic to Costa.

Play: Aguero (eve) and Costa (lei)

Avoid: Ibrahimovic (LIV) and Kane (WBA)

(You could sell Aguero (eve/TOT) instead of Ibrahimovic (LIV/sto) depending on which fixtures you prefer.)

GAMEWEEK 22:

No transfer.

Play: Aguero (TOT) and Costa (HUL)

Avoid: Ibrahimovic (sto) and Kane (mci)

GAMEWEEK 23:

One transfer. Costa to Ibrahimovic.

Play: Aguero (whm) and Ibrahimovic (HUL)

Avoid: Costa (liv) and Kane (sun)

(You could buy Kane (sun/MID) instead of Ibrahimovic (HUL/lei) depending on which fixtures you prefer.)

GAMEWEEK 24:

No transfer.

Play: Aguero (SWA) and Ibrahimovic (lei)

Avoid: Costa (ARS) and Kane (MID)

GAMEWEEK 25:

No transfer.

Play: Aguero (bou) and Ibrahimovic (WAT)

Avoid: Costa (bur) and Kane (liv)

GAMEWEEK 26:

One transfer. Ibrahimovic to Costa.

Play: Aguero (MUN) and Costa (SWA)

Avoid: Ibrahimovic (mci) and Kane (STO)

GAMEWEEK 27:

No transfer.

Play: Aguero (sun) and Costa (whm)

Avoid: Ibrahimovic (BOU) and Kane (EVE)

So to summarise:

Fixtures played:

Striker slot 1: sot/wat/BUR/eve/TOT/whm/SWA/bou/MUN/sun

Striker slot 2: SUN/MID/whm/lei/HUL/HUL/lei/WAT/SWA/whm

Fixtures avoided:

Kane: CHE/WBA/mci/sun/MID/liv/STO/EVE

Ibrahimovic:LIV/sto/mci/BOU

Costa: ban/STO/tot/liv/ARS/bur

Aguero: ban/ban

Ten gameweeks. Four transfers. A thing of beauty? Probably not. A method worthy of serious consideration? Perhaps.

Conclusion

Whilst I fully accept this method is not perfect, no method will be. We will miss hauls and see our rivals prosper. (Or maybe we’ll get very fortunate and see injury and suspension continue to make the options obvious.)

But personally, my biggest pet hate is the fear at seeing a high quality striker with an attractive fixture… and I don’t own them. I’m not sure I’ll go with this method, and I’m certainly not campaigning for it – but one thing we can say is that this method would make that feeling few and far between and, at the end of the day, if we don’t score well, at least we won’t be feeling quite so bad about it too.

64 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    thanks for this. I'll certainly be looking at something like this to tap into the good strikers and their fixtures.

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  2. Christina.
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Kunundrum

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    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      HurriKane method

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    2. Business Cat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Ibrahimo-which?

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  3. Sjaugen
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Harry hasn't been lethal to keep once Kun is back.

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  4. John t penguin
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    can I set it up to auto transfer each week

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    1. THE REAL RON ⚽
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      😀

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  5. Karan_G14
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Aguero is basically nailed in this!

    I'd avoid Kane and do this between Costa & Ibra.

    Nice piece of information great work!

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  6. greghammer95
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Nice article.

    But as you alluded to, I'm one of those that will be ignoring Kane for a while, Aguero also.

    I'm a little bit priced about by Aguero having got Costa in at 9.5m. Also, premium strikers and Premium fixtures, given the last two weeks, are we bothered?

    Form > Fixtures

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  7. tisza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Hard part for many is finding the 1st 1.5m to do Kane to Aguero in GW20.

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    1. Vman
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      I will be doing that from a defender

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  8. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    I probably will wait with Kun and won't bring him for GW20

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  9. Mick J
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Great article!

    However, I’ll probably do something like the following.

    Avoid: Kane (any opponent bar SWA/SUN).

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  10. MadMarcelo
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    I thought Aguero was back for the Liverpool game on GW19 no?

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    1. GreenArrows
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      same

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    2. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Have tweaked that. He means avoid as Aguero has a bad fixture then.

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      1. Licious Lizard
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 11 months ago

        The Pool defence would beg to differ...

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        1. J0E
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 11 months ago

          They concede, but not much. Certainly not the best fixture to bring him back for compared to Burnley at home.

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          1. Licious Lizard
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 11 months ago

            No I completely agree. But I am not sure Kane, as he looks now, will outscore him away against Watford...

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            1. J0E
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 16 Years
              8 years, 11 months ago

              As he says he's just trying to avoid luxury moves and play the fixtures.

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              1. Licious Lizard
                • 12 Years
                8 years, 11 months ago

                Sure sure. Was just making a joke about the Pool define 😉

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  11. AA33
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Great article!

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    • Kun Tozser
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Big players score in big games

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      1. Exeter Gently
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 11 months ago

        where was ozil yesterday?

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        1. thes7s
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 11 months ago

          Keyword: Big.

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          1. Kun Tozser
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 11 months ago

            This and he's over priced this season

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    • Spockazulu
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      If the streaky Trollkaku gets on a run he could be a differential to this method. Fixtures are mixed short term, but ease up mid January. Plus the "tough" fixtures are against Pool, City, Lei which are not exactly water tight defenses this season.

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    • Crystal
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      What about injuries and bans to the rest of your team?

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    • Sangomango
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      To me, currently, it feels like the problem is not with the 4 premium forwards but with spurs/Chelsea attacking players. I have 2 options:
      -Kane & Hazard
      -costa & Eriksen + 2m

      I am not feeling comfortable with 2 Chelsea or spurs attacking players. So it's 1 of each.

      Ibra vs Aguero: I will be thinking about it in a couple of gw.

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    • bibi
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      As you said: "There are pros and cons to this method and people will rightly highlight its flaws – “burning transfers”… “ignoring form”… “fixture-proof strikers”… “planning too far ahead”… etc."

      Frankly mate good try but you should have stopped right there, and you cannot ignore the whole team and just focus on the strikers, and I must disagree with Kane, except for his price tag he is not at the same level as the other three, not even close.

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      1. Pooodle
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 11 months ago

        I think the point is that it is just looking at the strikers - it wouldn't work well if he tried to look at every single position and possible combination across the whole team...!

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        1. Sunny 😎
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 11 months ago

          There lies the problem, in fpl we have 15 players to look at and not just 2 striker spots.

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          1. L S P
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 11 months ago

            this strategy doesn't require you to make FWD transfer every week. as he said: ten gameweeks, four transfers. that allows plenty of FTs to address other areas.

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    • Pooodle
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      This is a nice idea but one major problem - price rises.

      I like the idea of planning ahead to catch the fixtures, but the problem is that if one of the 4 explodes in a given gameweek then his price is going to rocket. If you then end up trying to play the fixtures you'll likely price yourself out of making a lot of these moves, if for example you sell Ibra at 11.3, and he is 11.5 when you next want him in.

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    • Marauders
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Ah the pro-City bias. You forgot to account for the next time Aguero lunges/slaps/commits another dirty foul, and misses 5 games this time.

      Also, Kane is not so good this season. Penalties and the occasional goal really. But it's good that you're mis-advising people by getting them to ignore two of these.

      I'll play Ibra, Costa and Aguero throughout (until Aguero gets banned/injured, i.e.)

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      1. Forza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 11 months ago

        Having a different opinion is mis-advising? 🙄

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        1. Marauders
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 11 months ago

          Clearly seems to be bad advice when Costa and Ibra cannot be dropped at all on current form. And for a 3rd striker, Aguero or Kane could rack up explosive returns. Mis-advising because he's banking on Aguero, who clearly has a sending off or two under him under the tutelage of the nutsack in your DP.

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      2. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 11 months ago

        Look at shots on target last number of games, kane is racking up some great numbers just like Ibra was before he clicked.

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        1. Marauders
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 11 months ago

          I'd captained him twice based on that, but watching him play, he doesn't look like scoring. A bit like with Firmino, where stats are on his side but FPL points are going to Lallana and Mane

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          1. Dino
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 11 months ago

            These are the guys you need to be bringing in to do well in fpl long term. You can't get Eriksen big haul by bringing him in after he scores. Ibra is a perfect example, if you keep bringing in the player that scored well last week you won't get anywhere.

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            1. Marauders
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 11 months ago

              Won't get anywhere with Ibra? I got Costa early on so I I think I can spot the ones who stay easy. I actually opted for Ibra instead of Eriksen and got 12 points so yeah.
              Firmino isn't giving you anything until Coutinho returns so your "these guys" example is flawed to begin with.

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              1. Dino
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 16 Years
                8 years, 11 months ago

                Firmino scored fat better without coutinho in the tan last season and his stats are the same without coutinho in the team so coutinho is not the difference it is just that he hasn't been putting the chances away so maybe confidence dips a bit like what happened to Ibra earlier this season.

                All it takes is one goal and he could explode again like Ibra has. You might say I'll buy him back then but as we've seen with hazard and sanchez by the time you get them back in their next "hot run" might be over again.

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    • harvard
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      You'll miss not just hauls but price changes seriously

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    • Lazarus Star
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      I like this and exactly with my thoughts moving forward for the top two heavy hitters.

      Effectively you will have 24M to fulfil two slots made up of Kun, Costa, Kane and Ibra.

      With Sanchez and Hazard sat behind them (collectively ~21M) and perhaps Coutinho when fit or Erikson (8.5-9M) gives a dedicated outlook of 53.5-55M on 5 (potentially essential) positions for the end of the season.

      With 45M on the remaining 10 players (avg 4.5M each) means some initial investments and the likes of Anchibe, Fletcher and De Roon being default picks.

      The only caveat for me is obviously Injuries and Bans and those mid price gems at the 6.5-7.5 mark who will probably bring the most ROI.

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    • Plutocracy
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      The downside I see is that premiums often don't follow fixture logic. Kane just showed us that, blanks against minnows, probably brace against the better sides (more frenetic games/more seemingly at stake...equals penalties, which he can actually score)

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    • Sonic Huth
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Is getting Benteke for gameweek 18 a right choice? He has some nice fixtures ahead

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    • j4bax
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Makes sense but i've had Costa from the start. Selling him now would mean i couldn't afford to buy him back without sacrifice in midfield.

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    • OneDennisBergkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      what about player values though? like if i transfer costa out it will cost me an extra 0.4m to put him back in due to the value I have built up? is it worth it?

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      1. OneDennisBergkamp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 11 months ago

        Anyone?

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    • Shultan
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      I get the idea behind this but by buying costa at a low price its hard to justify selling him then paying more to buy him back..
      Costa stays unless big injury/ban. Its the second spot thats going to be rotated.
      At the moment its ibra but could be aguero. Kane just hasnt looked good this season

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    • Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Lol.

      Rotating premium strikers? They are generally fixture proof. Look what happened with Kane at HUL & BUR

      Laughable.

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    • Pinky Blinders
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Just a random update:

      Not sure if you can count GW 18 since both Costa and Aguero were banned but the Kane + Ibra combo got a combined 19 points
      GW 19: Kane + Ibra = 19; Costa+Aguero = 8
      GW 20: Aguero + Ibra = 15; Costa + Kane = 4

      So far, so good.

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    • GreenArrows
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Just had a look at fixtures.

      League Cup final is 25th Feb....

      Currently prem fixtures for Saturday 24th Feb state:
      Arsenal vs Man City
      Man Utd vs Chelsea

      With City and Arsenal in the Semi-Final of the league cup, if Chelsea and Man Utd get through tonight, there is a strong chance we could be facing a free hit chip during the 24th Feb as both prem games could be cancelled.

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