Paddy Says
2 January 2017 983 comments
davidwardale davidwardale
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It’s time once again to take a seat in Paddy’s horse-drawn carriage and be whisked away on a magical tour to marvel at Anytime Goalscorer and Clean Sheets odds.

We stop, as ever, to first gaze upon the wonder of the enhanced offers available for new customers.

Football’s not exactly packed full of sure things – it’s why we love it so – but some things are definitely more sure than others, and one of those is Manchester City beating Burnley at the Etihad.

Paddy is offering new customers 3-1 on Pep Guardiola’s boys managing to see off a team with just the one away point to their name this season.

Or you can get 5-1 on Liverpool to beat Sunderland. The Black Cats have won three of their last four home matches, but they haven’t been anyone from the top half of the table, home or away, all season.

If you fancy your odds that little bit longer, there’s 6-1 on Manchester United to beat West Ham and the same price available on Arsenal to win at Bournemouth.

Slightly further out , we’ve got Leicester to beat Middlesbrough at 8-1. The Foxes looked much more like their old, title-winning, selves last time out, but they’ve not won on the road all season.

And if it’s an Acca you fancy, you can get 16-1 on Everton, Man City, Man United and Liverpool all to win. The Toffees are at home to a Southampton side who will have to make do without their previously ever-present defensive rock, Virgil van Dijk, for the first time in the campaign.

Be sure to check the terms and conditions on all those offers and, of course, we should state that all these specials are only available to those aged 18 or over. And if you’re going to wager, always gamble responsibly.

ANYTIME GOALSCORER ODDS – GAMEWEEK 20

PlayerTeamOdds
AgueroMCI1.33
SturridgeLIV1.80
IbrahimovicMUN1.83
BentekeCRY1.83
WalcottARS2.00
SanchezARS2.00
GiroudARS2.00
CostaCHE2.10
NolitoMCI2.10
De BruyneMCI2.10
FirminoLIV2.10
OrigiLIV2.10
ManeLIV2.10
LukakuEVE2.20
KaneTOT2.29
ToureMCI2.29
RondonWBA2.40

Sergio Aguero is back at the top of the Anytime Goalscorer pile and will be a major captaincy draw for many Fantasy Premier League managers.

But he’s still not proving to be box office gold, with two players well ahead of him in the race to be the most popular transfer target of the Gameweek. The price tag, the form of rival forwards and City’s patchy set of immediate fixtures no doubt providing the obstacles.

Burnley at home shouldn’t get much easier, hence his 1.33 price, but then there’s trips to Everton and an in-form West Ham as well as a visit from Spurs before January is done.

The Clarets are so bad on the road – one point from their one clean sheet – that it seems almost criminal not to have a punt on at least one City player finding the net. Maybe Kevin De Bruyne, who is at 2.10, will end his 14-match wait for a league goal.

Paddy again hedges his bets by offering low odds on Daniel Sturridge (1.80), but it was Roberto Firmino who played as Liverpool’s striker against Man City and his 2.10 price to score at Sunderland looks a far safer bet.

Only three teams have conceded more goals than the 15 the Black Cats have shipped at home, while Liverpool are joint-second with 20 away goals.

The Gameweek’s most signed player, Adam Lallana, is worth a look, therefore. He’s 3.40 to find the net at the Stadium of Light.

Salomon Rondon (2.4o) was benched in the win at Southampton. The smart money is on him gaining a recall when the Baggies’ teamsheet is revealed for the home match with Hull City.

Also in the West Brom camp, Matt Phillips, second only to Lallana for transfers-in this Gameweek, is at 3.75 to score in back-to-back matches.

Harry Kane (2.29) reminded us all of his prowess in the New Year’s Day lesson handed out to a woeful Watford. But Chelsea are a very, very different prospect and both he and Diego Costa (2.10) could struggle to make an impact in what promises/threatens to be a tight encounter of few chances.

The 3.50 available on Dele Alli making it six goals in four matches is probably going to be as good as it gets.

He’s certainly an increasingly popular transfer pick this Gameweek – into the top five and overhauling Costa for new managers.

CLEAN SHEET ODDS – GAMEWEEK 20

TeamOdds
Manchester City1.72
Liverpool1.90
Manchester United2.20
Stoke City2.25
West Bromwich Albion2.29
Crystal Palace2.40
Everton2.62
Middlesbrough2.62
Arsenal2.75
Leicester City2.87

The combined lowest odds on a clean sheet this Gameweek can be found in the Middlesbrough v Leicester fixture.

It’s a match-up unlikely to send many tingles down the spine – Boro are mixing it with the big boys when it comes to their defensive record at home while the Foxes, with just eight goals, have toiled on the road.

Boro are at 2.62, and Leicester 2.87, to keep goals out of the equation. Aitor Karanka’s men look the more likely of the two to actually do it, as the odds suggest.

Man City are the Gameweek’s runaway favourites to record a shut-out, even with their frankly awful defensive record this season.

The reason? Burnley’s truly appalling two goals scored in eight away matches. Swansea City have had more managers than that and we’re halfway through the season now.

Time for the 16.8% of managers still on John Stones to cash in, you suspect. Their loyalty deserves reward, but will Pep even pick him? Either way, it’s little wonder that a defence with only one more clean sheet than multi-managed Swansea are priced so low to add to their ‘haul’ against Burnley.

Liverpool, meanwhile, have now kept three clean sheets in their last four fixtures and a trip to Sunderland could garner another.

Two Reds defenders (Nathanial Clyne and Dejan Lovren) are among the top 30 players targeted this Gameweek, and Sunderland’s second-worst total of 17 goals scored this season tends to back up the wisdom of buying into the Liverpool back four.

A price of 1.90 is available for the Scousers to keep Sunderland’s attack all gums and no teeth.

983 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. SPECIALMOU
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 25 days ago

    Who is the best Boro defender and why? Thinking on Gibson (Bonus Points potential) or Barragàn (cheaper).

    And then bye bye Holebas

    1. Futbol Heritage
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 25 days ago

      No love for a Friend?

      1. SPECIALMOU
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        Why would you prefer him to the other two? Apart from the price.

    2. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 25 days ago

      chambers even cheaper

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 25 days ago

      Friend - very attacking and captain, nailed now when he's back from injury

      1. NATSTER
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 24 days ago

        Just Vice captain, I read somewhere.

  2. Futbol Heritage
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 25 days ago

    Got lost on old post.
    So been wasting my work hours mulling this

    A. Payet to Phillips (-4)

    B. Origi to Rondon (-4)

    C. DONT TAKE A HIT WITH ROTATION IMMINENT

    No WBA attacking cover, Have Lallana and Origi from Liverpool

    1. t4thomas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 25 days ago

      B if forced, but C.

    2. MTPockets
        9 years, 25 days ago

        c

      • Lone Wolf FPL
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        time with fpl is not wasted especially if it's work time and you get paid for it 😉
        C

        1. Futbol Heritage
          • 16 Years
          9 years, 25 days ago

          haha truth 😀 Cheers, Ill stick with the no hit 🙂

      • Futbol Heritage
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        Thanks guys.

    3. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 25 days ago

      Chambers over Friend right?
      Friend too risky pick considering his last games with Fabio there too.

      1. Whazza
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        Got friend in, captain should be nailed

        1. Lone Wolf FPL
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 25 days ago

          why did he played less in previous games? fabio isn't a risk?

          1. SPECIALMOU
            • 16 Years
            9 years, 25 days ago

            This is my main concern about Friend

      2. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        Friend, was eased back from injury, but now back, attacking and captain

        1. Lone Wolf FPL
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 25 days ago

          cheers for that guys

    4. t4thomas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 25 days ago

      Any good?

      Valdés
      Alonso | Lovren | Evans
      Sánchez | Hazard | Sigurdsson | Rodriguez
      Ibrahimovic | Costa | Rondón

      1. BB-8
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        Gtg

        1. t4thomas
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 25 days ago

          Cheers Broo.

          1. Doar1986
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 25 days ago

            Will Rondon be back in today then?

      2. Pompel
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        Siggy -> Phillips if you fancy. Otherwise G2G

        1. Doar1986
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 25 days ago

          I've done that transfer

    5. Whazza
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 25 days ago

      This might sound crazy, but anyone considering a punt on Bojan?

      - Been promised more gametime in Jan. Not only because Diouf, Bony and Sobhi are going to AFCON, but that was part of reason he recently extended his contract/decided to not leave in the transfer window.
      - Only 5.5
      - Possibly OOP
      - Likely starter this gw due to playing 30min vs Chelsea
      - Could still have penalties
      - WAT, Sun coming up

      Thoughts as 4th/5th mid? Phillips could be the other 4th/5th

      1. :
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        I get your point but I had him at the start of the season and. I swore never again.

    6. corderz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 25 days ago

      Kane > Aguero

      Which transfer to accommodate?
      A) Alonso > 4.4 defender
      B) Hazard > Lallana (Don't have Costa)

      1. t4thomas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        No.

        1. corderz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 25 days ago

          Keep Kane then?

      2. MTPockets
          9 years, 25 days ago

          Don't like either

        • Salah Fingers
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 25 days ago

          Not for a hit and defo not by weakening those two

        • Pompel
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 25 days ago

          Wouldn't do that

      3. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 25 days ago

        1)chances of these getting a rest: valencia,holebas,philips,sanchez,carroll?
        2) Benteke or baines? who do u expect to score more this gw?
        3) Benteke (-4) or carroll?

        1. MTPockets
            9 years, 25 days ago

            No idea
            Benteke
            Carroll

            1. Lone Wolf FPL
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 25 days ago

              this

        2. laveshp
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 25 days ago

          Hi Guys, quick help concerning WHO TO BENCH PLEASE (OR IF AOA IS WORTH IT):

          Phillips (HUL) - Lallana (SUN) - Allen (VS a woeful Watford) - Alexis (BOU) - Alli (CHE)
          ---
          Kane (CHE) - Costa (TOT) - Lukaku (TOT)

          My initial instinct is to bench Alli / Kane vs CHE as I believe Allen will do quite well. Worth the AOA? THanks guys!

          1. MTPockets
              9 years, 25 days ago

              I'd certainly do AOA before benching Alli/Kane.

          2. BB-8
            • 9 Years
            9 years, 25 days ago

            Good to go?

            Heaton
            Alonso - Pieters - Holebas
            San(c)hez - Alli - Lallana - Siggy
            Ibra - Costa - Rondon(vc)

            Pick* de Roon Ake Amat

            1 FT, 4.0 ITB.

            1. Pompel
              • 11 Years
              9 years, 25 days ago

              Would play Aké over Holebas, otherwise G2G

              1. BB-8
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Ta

            2. Arteta
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 25 days ago

              Good to go! Even though you never know what to expect from Ake, no matter who he plays against.

              1. BB-8
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Can't play him against my Arsenal. 😉
                Might yet come on if Alonso ruled out as rumoured

            3. MTPockets
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Yep. Also pondering Ake/Holebas. Can't realistically see Ake getting more than 2, whereas Holebas seems red/black. Going Holebas.

            4. Pompel
              • 11 Years
              9 years, 25 days ago

              Brunt in for a hit this GW? Or is he a rotation risk? Would be for Cedric or Holebas. I know one is not supposed to take hits for defenders, but this rule of thumb has left my defense to rot during last few GW's....

              1. BERGKOP
                • 14 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Just hold and play Cedric.

                1. Pompel
                  • 11 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Thanks - still tempted despite common sense though 🙂

            5. _Ninja_
              • 15 Years
              9 years, 25 days ago

              Costa -> Kun? (got costa late at 10.6)

              Heaton
              Baines / Jones / Evans
              Sanchez / Hazard / Eriksen / Phillips
              Ibra / Costa / Origi

              Pickford / Allen / Holebas / Amat

              1. MTPockets
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  I wouldn't

                • BB-8
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Could work if you're chasing

              2. Arteta
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Probably the last match for Siggy in my team. Great start and then blank after blank. May he score a goodbye brace for me.

                1. BB-8
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  +1

                2. Samurai Blue
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 13 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Don't know if I should keep Siggy for this last match or else get Pogba. But to get the latter I need to make Alderweireld > Brunt for a minus 4 as well.

                  1. Arteta
                    • 10 Years
                    9 years, 25 days ago

                    Keeping is reasonable but no one would blame you for doing these moves. I just feel that he's gonna do "Kane" and punish the sellers. I don't expect 16 points but something around 10 is realistic.

                    1. Samurai Blue
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 13 Years
                      9 years, 25 days ago

                      And I don't like the minus 4s in a GW where anything could happen. And I got burned by Kane after Southampton!

                      1. Arteta
                        • 10 Years
                        9 years, 25 days ago

                        Then just keep and hope for the best. Gylfi is their best player and Palace rarely keep a clean sheet.

              3. Manchester 17
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Hey guys,
                Jaku/Heaton
                Alonso/Kosc/Jones/Amat/Francis
                Mane/Haz/Sanchez/Snoddy/De Roon
                Kane/Ibra/Anichebe

                2FT

                What to do with the 2 transfers?
                Who to captains?

                Cheers!

              4. Kalou
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Bench one:
                A.alonso
                B.Williams

                1. WVA
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  B

                2. Samurai Blue
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 13 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  B

                3. Sjaugen
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Would play both. Don't bench Alonso

              5. Effendi007
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Any reason to keep Sigs for today?

                1. WVA
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Nope I got rid for Alli

                  1. Effendi007
                    • 9 Years
                    9 years, 25 days ago

                    Nice, I already have alli thinking of stanislas or Mkhitaryan

                  2. ChristoBisto
                    • 10 Years
                    9 years, 24 days ago

                    That is next week's transfer for me. Would rather have Siggy (cpl) than Alli (CHE) for this gameweek.

                2. Samurai Blue
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 13 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  One last haul before saying goodbye.

                  1. Effendi007
                    • 9 Years
                    9 years, 25 days ago

                    He hasn't performed in games where he should've gotten something. Palace will be looking to keep it tight with big sam

              6. shirtless
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Start Foster and Evans ahead of Heaton and Can? Prob selling Foster after this week to raise cash so thinking he might as well have a fairwell as its Hull! Sick of Can's 1 pointers too.

                1. Samurai Blue
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 13 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Yes

                  1. shirtless
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    9 years, 25 days ago

                    Thanks.

              7. Flying Nugget
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 16 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Really wanting to bring in Brunt this week for a -4 before WBA's good run of fixtures. However, his injury record is putting me off. Anyone else think he is unlikely to start 2 games in 3 days?

                1. Ferris Bueller
                  • 14 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Not for a -4

              8. WVA
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Is anyone else captaining Rondon?

                1. cruzex
                  • 13 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  i am thinking about that...

              9. cruzex
                • 13 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Origi will start?

                1. the dom 1
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  hoping so as he was rested last GW

                2. WVA
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Rumours were he and Sturridge could both start so probably

              10. squintykid
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                WC team for week 20 gtg?

                Valdes
                Lovren, Mustafi, Brunt
                KDB, Lallana, Antonio, Phillips
                Kun, Ibra, Costa

                Bench
                Jaku, Barry, Ake, Holgate

                0.7m ITB

                seems a risk taking Sanchez out, but 90 pts behind in ML and need a few differentials.

              11. the dom 1
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Would u do Antonio > Pogba for -4?

              12. cruzex
                • 13 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                De bruyne or Rondon for (c)?

                1. Syd.
                  • 16 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Kevin

                2. WVA
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  If I had KDB I'd go with him but I don't so I'm going Rondon!

              13. -SB-
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                I'm trying to get in Aguero.

                I can only do that by removing Ibra. Is that a risk considering he's on form?

                I have Costa already.

                1. The Left Duke #3
                  • 11 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  I think it's a move we are all fighting with whether it be Costa, Ibra or Kane out for Kun. At the moment he is not in better form than any of them so I think no......but Burnley at home is a plum captain fixture and Kun is Kun

              14. The Left Duke #3
                • 11 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Feel like I want to make about 6 transfers but only have the 1FT (0.1m ITB, OR 46.5K, TV 104.6m).

                Thoughts on where to begin?

                Foster Jaku
                Alonso Jones Holebas Amat Williams
                Sanchez Hazard Siggy Payet Capoue
                Kane Ibra Diomande

                1. squintykid
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  downgrade siggy, upgrade 3rd striker?

                2. Yellin' in my Ear
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Siggy to Philips popular round here

                3. diesel001
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Stick then think about bringing in Sterling, Phillips and Lallana for Siggy, Capoue and Payet IMO. Nice front 7 then.

              15. ☻ Jon Snow ☻
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Thinking about Ibra to Kun is going to be the best move or if it will backfire.

                1. -SB-
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  I'm in the same boat as you.

                2. Pompel
                  • 11 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  Wouldn't do that mode. I might be doing Kane -> Kun, though 😉

              16. Emiliano Sala
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Sorry guys I know it's annoying but I promise it's last time I'm asking

                Which one is better ?

                A) valdes + craig dawson(west brom rb)
                B) mannone + brunt

                Thanks guys

                1. diesel001
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  A for me - Sunderland are rubbish and hit by AFCON departures

                2. Yellin' in my Ear
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  I prefer A, Middlesbrough's defence better than Sunderland's

                3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  A imo. Mannone useless

              17. Yellin' in my Ear
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Been struggling with this for a while, bench two:
                A) Evans HUL
                B) Alonso tot
                C) Walker CHE
                D) Jones whu
                E) Bellerin bou
                F) De Roon LEI
                Thanks

                1. draftcup
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  C and F

                  1. Yellin' in my Ear
                    • 10 Years
                    9 years, 25 days ago

                    That's what I'm on atm, cheers

              18. Kaneyonero
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Worth doing Kane to Kun for a -8 hit would involve getting in phillips too

                1. Sjaugen
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  It isn't worth a -8

              19. hillbillypete
                • 16 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                A. Brunt and De Roon

                or

                B Robertson and Stanislas

                ???

                1. Sjaugen
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 25 days ago

                  A if de Roon is your 5th

              20. Jam0sh
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                9 years, 25 days ago

                Morning fellas. Save FT and bench order right?

                Foster
                Brunt, Jones, Alonso
                Phillips, Antonio, Lallana, Sanchez
                Costa, Ibrahimovic, Aguero

                subs: Heaton --- Holgate, Ake, Clayton --- 0.0 ITB

                1. MTPockets
                    9 years, 25 days ago

                    Yep