| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change |  Raya Martin | ARS | C |
| No Change |  Alisson | LIV | C, Vs |
| No Change |  Donnarumma | MCI | C, Vs, Sus |
| No Change |  Ramsdale | NEW | C |
| No Change |  Sels | NFO | B |
| No Change |  Dubravka | BUR | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change |  van Dijk | LIV | B, Vs |
| No Change |  Muñoz | CRY | A, Sus |
| No Change |  Jurriën Timber | ARS | C |
| No Change |  O’Reilly | MCI | B, Vs |
| No Change |  de Ligt | MUN | B, Inj |
| No Change |  Thiaw | NEW | A |
| No Change |  Andersen | FUL | B |
| No Change |  Milenkovic | NFO | B |
| No Change |  van Hecke | BHA | A, £ |
| No Change |  Mukiele | SUN | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change |  Saka | ARS | A |
| No Change |  Bruno Fernandes | MUN | B |
| No Change |  Foden | MCI | A, Vs |
| No Change |  Semenyo | BOU | C |
| No Change |  Gakpo | LIV | B, Vs, Rest |
| No Change |  Minteh | BHA | B |
| No Change |  Bruno Guimarães | NEW | A |
| Up |  Schade | BRE | C |
| No Change |  Anderson | NFO | A, £ |
| Down |  Fernández | CHE | B |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change |  Haaland | MCI | A, Vs |
| Up |  Thiago | BRE | A |
| Down |  Mateta | CRY | C |
| No Change |  Welbeck | BHA | C, Rest |
| No Change |  Woltemade | NEW | B |
Paul Next this Saturday, we catch up on the member’s area statistics over the last three rounds of fixtures with our usual post-Gameweek article.
We assess the lay of the land at Arsenal as a result of Olivier Giroud’s first-team return before analysing Tottenham’s man of the moment and Manchester United’s pair of form players.
West Ham and Everton also play a part in our thinking ahead of some fine upcoming fixtures.
I took issue with a Hot Topic a few months ago, which claimed there was value in choosing a premium GK, as opposed to generally accepted wisdom of selecting a lower cost keeper who is likely to make more saves, earn more BPS, and ultimately score similarly to a more costly option (certainly when you consider the funds that could be spent elsewhere).
Here is the HT in question:
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/13969687
The basis of the comparison was the popular Foster versus the more costly Cech, as he was highlighted as the cheapest route into the Arsenal defence. The premise being that 5.5M Cech would certainly outscore similarly priced defenders.
Here are the top 10 defenders at 5.5M or less: http://imgur.com/a/Zcmzi
8 of these have at least equalled Cech's 65 points, and some have far outscored him (5 are on 71+). As FPL managers if we can't identify one or two of this top 10 then we're not doing our job.
Another assertion was that Arsenal were sure to keep far more CS than WBA, and would likely hit 20 CSs. Numerous posters dismissed this claim as completely unrealistic, but it formed the basis of the predicted score comparison.
Now, WBA have found fewer CS than Arsenal this year with only 3. But I challenge anyone to assert that with just 6 this year Arsenal will reach anywhere near the mooted 20 CSs.
Interestingly, since it was the basis on the initial comparison, Foster is currently on the exact same total of 65 points that Cech currently has, and cost a whole 1M less than the Gunners' stopper.
The purpose of this post is simply to reassert my belief that there is no value in spending big on your goalkeeper, and that our squad budget can bring far greater value spent elsewhere.
Yes. I agree.
Let's all move on.
😆
I never get expensive keepers... Never going to get you many saves, bonus points so never worth it
I can't say I've seen many teams with expensive keepers on here.
Bit long for a boast post
😆 You reckon!?
very interesting.. kinda hurts that I have only managed to own Lovren from this list as defender transfers defender and GK transfers always seem to be less of a priority..
was considering an expensive GK for the second half of the season post WC from one of the sides in contention just to pick and leave in place..
Why didn't you post this last week when I was on WC bringing in Cech? :/
Erm.... Sorry? 🙂
😉
I'd like to see this analysis against Courtouis or DDG and a bunch of cheap goalkeepers tbh. Foster (with Heaton) the stand out cheap option and Cech (I imagine) the worst performing premium gk. Interesting analysis but not comprehensive, sorry.
To be honest mate, I was only dismissing previous analysis, which was just as narrow in it's scope.
Fair point though.
You're completely missing the point of the post.
I'm sure I could go back and find some predictions where you were wrong and take your predictions out of context.
Arsenal were an example, the point was it could be the way forward aswell as save some money.
Cech was an example of a premium goalkeeper who I thought would do well, maybe Courtious has offered good value?
This. Courtois and most 4.5 options will have probably beaten Foster and a Chelsea defender, especially since you can bench a cheap defender more often than a cheap 'keeper.
I always go for 2 cheap keepers. Worked ok for me for the last few years.
Same 🙂
Hindsight is easy.
the point is that there are 6 big teams and 14 make up the rest. you know for certain that 2 or 3 of the 14 GKs will score well, however you can't know in advance which. you have that guarantee with a premium GK .
Indeed. To be honest, my point was, even if you don't hit on one of the 2/3 GKs that outperform the premium options, the difference in points tally at the end of the year is usually so small that you were better investing elsewhere anyway,
I'm in the cheap keeper camp, it just seems more fun to try and pick defenders with the chance of attacking returns, until there's a penalty taking goalkeeper.
Also I remember reading that clean sheets tend to increase in the second half of the season. Not sure if that impacts this analysis though.
Mate the point of that post was to look at 5.5 keeper and 4.5 defender compared to 4.5 keeper and 6m defender (cheapest Arsenal) the point was you could save .5million.
Clearly in Hindseight I was wrong about Arsenal but they are merely just an example.
Well that point doesn't work either. Cheap keepers are matching the expensive keepers but expensive defenders are outscoring cheap defenders. Clearly the 4.5m keeper and 6m defender is giving more points. The margin is easily big enough to justify the 0.5m difference in my opinion but you're fully entitled to think differently
Tbf Coutious and say Ake vs Heaton and 5.5 would be close, in Hindseight you can see it was wrong but at the time the point was everyone wanted a WBA defender and Arsenal keeper and my suggestion was .5 cheaper.
Fair play for defending your view. Its harsh to criticize with benefit of hindsight and I didn't make a comment on the original hot topic so can't claim any superiority on this. Personally I like a good cheaper keeper but it would be boring if everyone did the same thing
Yea that's true, I could still be right as I was looking at 5.5 keeper+4.5 defender and vices versa and seeing which is better.
Fair enough. To be honest, the only reason the post stuck in my head was because of the assertion that Arsenal would get 20 CS this year.
A keeper has only kept 20 or more CS 3 times since the Premier League was incepted, and no more than 18 since 2009. I just felt this was an very unrealistic premise, so have kept an eye on it.
I wasn't intending to have a pop at you. I just wanted to revisit the topic partway through the season, now we were able to test the theory.
Yea clearly I was wrong about Arsenal but as I said it wasn't the point.
In hindsight Courtious may have been a better example but the actual post wasn't about Arsenals defence, it was about saving money (lots of people wanted Arsenal defence).
Aye, fair enough. I suppose I just personally prefer to have defenders who offer some sort of attacking threat or BPS potential too, since CS are so hard to predict or rely on. This normally means not buying the cheapest entry point to a specific team's defence, e.g. Daniels > Francis, Walker > Vertonghen.
You make a point that Courtois has offered great value, but I think if you are spending big on a keeper you need to get the right one, the one who's going to get CS like Chelsea have. Because when you don't, you don't accrue much else.
Heaton has kept pace with the premium keepers (in fact, eclipsed all but Courtois) because of saves and bonus, and he did the same last time Burnley were in the Prem too.
While not all lower cost keepers will keep pace with more costly options, I believe that the points differential for keepers is very minimal. You can include the top 14 keepers in FPL, and all are within 10 points of Cech. You can make that 15 if you increase the threshold to 11 points (and that's only because Pickford has missed 4 games).
I just think that the GK position is the best place to spend little and still keep pace with other options, or the impact of not keeping pace is minimal.
LOL an i have Courtois 🙂
And he's been a great buy this year. Although he was 1M more expensive than Heaton and has just 5 points more. Heaton has form for this too. He was one of the top scoring keepers last time Burnley were in the Prem.
Ludicrous display.
Don't they play in Bulgaria
😀
Dolphins?
Arsenal in disarray? Time to triple up then, surely. 12 match unbeaten run coming up to cement that top 4 spot.
Could be a great differential for the next 5 at the least
That is Giru-Sanchez and a defender.
One day I will own Charlie Daniels and the dark, rain-filled clouds will give way to blue skies and the joy of the sun's happy embrace.
I want him badly now Ake's probably off.
Jonty always trusted Daniels
Have to give him credit for that in the scoutcast
Currently 4th highest defender if I'm not wrong
+1
855 currently qualified for Last Man Standing.
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/01/06/last-chance-to-enter-the-last-man-standing-competition-2/ for more details.
Made it to the halfway stage 🙂
You'll do well to survive another 10 GWs.
I'm usually out by GW3 😆
Was gonna have a bet on Both Teams to Score in this game as odds have shortened or else over 2.5goals...
Is it looking likely gents??
Cant get a radio link to listen in from Ireland...........
Bournemouth manager Howe on Nathan Ake's Chelsea return: "It looks like that will be the case, it's not 100% finalised yet." #CFC
If you own Nathan Aké & 3 Chelsea players, when he goes back this month the next transfer you make will have to be a Chelsea player out
Can this be hulked?
Bollox.
Well maybe not that bad if Ake is played but that hardly a guarantee, was thinking Alonso out anyway, but would prefer to keep him and not have to spend non existant funds replacing Ake.
An extra FT should be tollerated for those with Ake 😮
Not good.
Does anyone think he will be a Chelsea regular?
Do you think his price will go up or down because of this?
Will Ake play though? Smith a good option again?
We're playing Bayern Munich next month.
Don't worry
Walcott will score a hattie
Going out on the away goals rule after a heroic come from behind win at the Allianz.
You will lose the first leg convincingly then put in a valiant effort in the return leg where you lose by one the sole away goal
On WC, currently with Alonso and Ake. Best to switch to Baines and Brunt now?
You should have Baines and Brunt anyway
+1
and why are you ona WC now instead of waiting for DGWs?
more points to be gained in the coming weeks with the right setup rather than banking on a DGW imo.
interesting.. was your team shook? would love to be playing with a WC at the moment 🙂
wasent too bad, but I wanted to go 3-5-2 and shake up the defence bigtime. Cant escape the 100k region this year and think its time to start pushing
best of luck with it.. id deffo have Brunt, Baines and Rose in my backline... is it Ibra and Costs/ Kun up top?
cheers. Yeh I'm going with Ibra and Costa up top
i have all 4
What's up with Alonso now?
I'd deffo have Baines and Brunt if I were you though
Rotation risk
Because of Ake's return???
So annoying that I brought in Aké...
He hasn't left yet and the chances are he won't
Bournemouth manager Howe on Nathan Ake's Chelsea return: "It looks like that will be the case, it's not 100% finalised yet."
Just seen that. I am sure Howe do his best to keep him for the remainder of the season
Howe just said he has as good as left 🙁
Must be mixed feelings for Ake. Nice to be wanted but I'm sure he'd rather be playing week in/week out.
Yeah. Would have been better for him to play and improve. Maybe Conte sees him as an improvement over Alonso.
Did you see Koemans interview post match? Seems very annoyed with boards progress with signing players.
Probably a way of pushing hard to sign one of the United duo...
Or both of the united duo
Interesting.
BTW, has anyone commented on how aptly you named you are today with the site constantly crashing...
Its been me pulling the plug for my own amusement
What a surprise.
Do we have any feeling as top when we will be considering using our WCs?
Over the years the winter weather has caused havoc but we look to have made it through the worst of it this year.. Are we going to be relying on cup games causing DGWs?
DGWs
When was the last time there were DGWs because of weather?
few years back.. never forget the year of Tevez captain when only about 3 games went ahead! 🙂
The next time I use mine will be post gw1 2017/18
We surely are. Be nice to start planning after the league cup semis.
If you haven't got to January with a squad you are happy with then What on Earth have you been doing since the start of the season?
If I recall, last season a bunch of peeps saved their WCs for the DGWs and ended up unsatisfied in the long run because it screwed up their teams. I argue that there is really no right or wrong time to use them. It can go either bad or well regardless. DGWs usually end up with only a few guys that really go big in the end, so I wonder how valuable it is to hold onto WC for such a scenario vs performing surgery on your team now and perhaps benefiting big over a long stretch of multiple GWs.
A lot of people used their second WC last season before the DGW and used BB or TC for the DGW itself and most were extremely happy!
I was among that sort of crowd. I did amazing without the help of a WC. Triple captain Sanchez bagging me a cool 75 definitely helped! I think there was a DGW before that where Austin and Benteke each had a party. I scored big there too with both of them. End of season run -n was awesome for me last year in general. Took a very woeful OR and at least made it semi-respectable by season's end.
Alonso owners: Switch to Charlie Daniels. Bag yourself a cool million in the process. Done.
Baines or Brunt???
Them as well. I will have Daniels, Baines and Brunt most likely here after my transfer plans come to fruition.
Nice, looks like I just got a Chelsea defender without using a transfer. Pity he wont play 🙁
Will his price go up or down because of this, W.R.?
Down I'd imagine. You won't want a Chelsea spot held by a bit-part player
Somebody better pop your cherry soon
Who's this?
Ake - loan to Bournemouth likely to bw cancelled
Why would they cancel it, they don't need to?
Cover for defence
Ake > Holgate.
LOL
I own both
Trust you.
Bournemouth defence without Francis and Ake.. Oh dear..
Despite the relatively suprising number of CS, I think most were relying on attacking points...
Sylvain Distin to the rescue!
Adam Smith can come in for Ake. not sure about Francis' replacement.
You mean Brad Smith? Adam Smith already plays in the first eleven.
Ah didn't see he was dropped... my bad
Best mid for 9.2? have eriksen alli and sanchez
I would say Pogba. Cout when he is fully fit again
Ramsey goal
Ramsey goal
What do you think of Donald Love (4m) - he has played for SUN for the last few games, has played today as well for the FA, I see him as an enabler.
Obviously there isn't many 4.0M defenders out there getting regular minutes, and Love seems ok (I already have Amat)
I think he plays for Sunderland. That would be my main concern
He's alright, starts occasionally and comes on for 1 point quite often. The one time he was called upon in my team he had played a few minutes and delivered one point.
Ramsey wagon.
How likely do we think this Ake recall thing is to happen?
Almost certain
Please read above.
I just started watching and we scored in ten seconds. I will keep watching.
can't ake replace moses?????
Would be better. I heard he played left back in Watford?
Rambooooooo
Perez looks so much like Ramsey
This is why we take the time to say Welsh Rambo..
He reminds me of Heinrich Himmler. Looks wise, obviously.
I rage transferred Cedric to ake early this week!!
Ox is a donk.
What a ball Ake that is. Only bought him last week. Had enough for Daniels as well but thought I would save some cash :-(I
Which is the safest Chelsea defender to own now Luiz?
Dave
azpi as well
Court
Ake can play in goal too
