This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.
Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 22’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same.
The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.
Success
What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFScout Captain poll. A monthly average will also be worked out to find the cumulative points to see if this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful.
On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:
- Explosive = 10+ points
- Success = 7-9 points
- Average = 4-6 points
- Fail = no attacking returns
The articles top pick in Gameweek 21, Olivier Giroud delivered an ‘average’ success of five points according to this method. He was substituted with an injury after 59 minutes, curtailing his potential attacking returns somewhat. Arsenal went onto score two goals after his withdrawal so he may well have picked up further points.
The clean sheet potential table fared much better, the top four in the table (Tottenham, West Ham, Arsenal and Chelsea) all kept clean sheets where fifth placed Manchester United conceded just the one goal against Liverpool, via a James Milner penalty.
Let’s take a look at Gameweek 22’s results:
Form
Rank | Player | Total PPG | Goals | Assists | Home PPG | Away PPG |
1. | Ibrahimovic | 8.75 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11.5 |
2. | Sanchez | 6.75 | 2 | 1 | 4.5 | 9 |
3. | Lukaku | 6.5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
4. | Hazard | 5.75 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | 4 |
5. | Costa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 |
6. | Coutinho | 3.75 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
Fixtures
Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals conceded | Big Chances Conceded | Goal attempts in box conceded | Total |
1. | Coutinho | Swansea (H) | 4 | 12 | 31 | 47 |
2. | Ibrahimovic | Stoke (A) | 9 | 5 | 32 | 46 |
3.5 | Hazard | Hull (H) | 4 | 6 | 31 | 41 |
3.5 | Costa | Hull (H) | 4 | 6 | 31 | 41 |
5. | Lukaku | C. Palace (A) | 2 | 6 | 32 | 40 |
6. | Sanchez | Burnley (H) | 3 | 2 | 29 | 34 |
Results
Rank | Player | Form | Fixture | Total |
1. | Ibrahimovic | 1 | 2 | 3 |
2. | Coutinho | 6 | 1 | 7 |
3. | Hazard | 4 | 3.5 | 7.5 |
4.5 | Lukaku | 3 | 5 | 8 |
4.5 | Sanchez | 2 | 6 | 8 |
6. | Costa | 5 | 3.5 | 8.5 |
Taking form and fixtures into account, Zlatan Ibrahimovic is the most likely to deliver attacking returns, according to this method. The Manchester United forward has the highest PPG out of anyone in the list with an impressive 8.75 from the last four Gameweeks and an equally impressive 11.5 PPG from his last two away games. Couple this with Stoke’s recent poor defensive record, where they have conceded nine goals in the last four Gameweeks, and this makes the Swede the standout option this week.
Phillipe Coutinho offers this weeks’ differential captain, the Liverpool front man has the best fixture, certainly on paper this week, where he faces a Swansea side who have conceded 12 big chances in the last four Gameweeks and 31 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame. His form statistics are taken from his last available games before injury but still place him bottom of the table. Couple all this with a midweek start against Plymouth, it remains to be seen whether Jurgen Klopp starts the Brazilian from the first whistle.
At first glance this article urges caution captaining Alexis Sanchez this week. In the overall form table, his home PPG of 4.5 is the second lowest on the list. In addition, the Arsenal man surprisingly sits bottom of the fixture table this week in terms of last four Gameweeks as Burnley have conceded just three goals and an impressively low two big chances over that period. With Olivier Giroud back in training, the Chilean may well find himself back on the wing, which certainly may hamper his attacking potential.
However, it is worth pointing out that the Clarets are a different beast on the road and their last four Gameweek statistics include three ties at Turf Moor. Burnley’s last four away games have seen them concede seven times, concede three big chances and give way 34 goal attempts in the box. That Combined total of 44 would raise the influential Gunner to third place in terms of fixtures and just behind Ibrahimovic as this week’s best captaincy choice.
Clean Sheet Potential Table
Rank | Team |
1. | Chelsea |
2. | Arsenal |
3. | Southampton |
4. | West Brom |
5. | Liverpool |
7 years, 3 months ago
Thanks again for this. I still think I'll go for Sanchez - having looked at Burnley's last four away form he looks far stronger than if looking at last four - as that has three home games. Burnley are a classic example of a team where home and away really does matter and those 10 goal attempts in the box conceded away to WHU and 13 conceded at Spurs tell the sort of story I like as a Sanchez captainer.
Will prob captain Ibra in Sky though in case I'm wrong. 🙂