This week’s Say What is brought to you by the letter ‘I’.
Not I for intelligence – this is footballers we’re talking about here. Nor is it I for inane – the day Michael Owen makes it into this column is the day we all need to book into a specialist Swiss clinic.
No, Say What is all about I for instinct: that most basic of footballing impulses since Sharon Stone switched her legs around and showed us her world class Rabona.
So we have Hazard, Lukaku and Kane giving us the I, while Mourinho somehow manages to take the credit for everyone else’s success and Guardiola continues to insist that Aguero, much like the Beatles, is bigger than Jesus.
Hazard On Fire, No Danger
When Charles Dickens penned Great Expectations, he was clearly foretelling the Chelsea career of Eden Hazard.
The classic, after all, is about a small lad who finds his fortune in London courtesy of a mysterious overseas investor with a dodgy past.
When expectations are so high, however, disappointment inevitably seems to follow.
So while Chelsea have been a consistent source of major returns this season, the feeling is that Eden ‘Pip’ Hazard has provided plenty of hard times for his Fantasy followers.
Two seasons ago, he was our mutual friend. Last year, he was a load of Martin Chuzzlewit. But now…
“I am a better player, more complete, than I was. We are in better form as a team. Two years ago I was on fire but I can score more goals this season. I already have 10. Two years ago I finished with 14. We have a lot of games to play, so we will see.”
A superb strike against Arsenal helped the wide man to his first double-digit haul since Gameweek 18 and despite some wild price and ownership fluctuations (from 9.8 to 10.5 and 571,000 to 1.6 million), he’s far and away Chelsea’s most productive midfielder. In fact, only Alexis Sanchez can beat his 145 points for the season.
Hazard’s reasons for this are refreshingly simple.
“It’s not because my position is different now. It’s just because I want to score. People want me to score a lot of goals, so I try to take the ball close to the goal and shoot more. I think this season I’ve been shooting more than before and I think that is the key.”
The stats back up that last assertion. If we compare this campaign to his player of the year stint from 2014-15, Hazard is slightly up for attempts, shots on target and shot accuracy, and well ahead for minutes per attempt – 38.5 this season, as opposed to 45.2 two years ago.
He’s also in the top five for penalty area touches and conversion rate (among midfielders who’ve played at least 20 times) and in the top ten for minutes per goal this year.
But beyond those numbers, Hazard is rather less analytical regarding his success.
“It’s instinct. I don’t think too much. It’s instinct.”
Not that he’s keen to channel his inner Sharon Stone, preferring instead something rather more ’50 Shades’.
“When I get a lot of kicks, I really feel in the game. When people don’t touch me, that means I’m not doing well, I’m no good. I’m not saying I like to be kicked, but it’s good for me.”
Yes, Eden, you’ve been a very, very naughty boy.
And even with a likely Gameweek 28 blank against Watford to factor in, Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures – Burnley, West Ham and Stoke away, Swansea and Palace at home – suggests more pain for him, more pleasure for us.
Time To Take The Lukaku Challenge?
There’s plenty of pleasure in owning Everton’s Romelu Lukaku at the moment thanks to his four goals against Bournemouth.
You’ll never guess how he explained that feat.
“Everything I do in training is about instinct and I’m really happy that everything worked. When I was driving in to the stadium I had a good feeling. It’s just about instincts really.”
The standard instinct when it comes to owning Lukaku is to look at the fixtures, make him captain and then hide behind the sofa watching the match through the cracks in the hands that cover your eyes.
The Belgian, after all, is streakier than a packet of Best Buy bacon, scoring a hat-trick one week, blanking for what feels like an eternity the next.
And yet his worst goalless run this season lasted only four matches, which included trips to Chelsea and Southampton (back when they could defend) and a home clash with Man United.
At least a lot of that new-found consistency has noting to do with instinct, thankfully.
“When he (Ronald Koeman) came in, he had these ideas, and concepts of players, so for us we had to adapt because we worked under Roberto Martinez and it was a totally different style of football. But I think we adapted well, we are seventh in the league and everything is positive. It’s been good. The consistency is still there, but like I said there is room for improvement. I think there is a little change, obviously, players going and coming. Obviously the atmosphere is a bit different because you are entering the second half of the season when all the teams are getting into the rhythm.”
Everton are certainly in that rhythm – unbeaten in seven matches, including that 4-0 win over Man City in which Lukaku scored. Small wonder then that his ownership has remained above the million mark since Gameweek 9.
In fact, it’s more surprising that it’s not gone a lot higher than a Gameweek 12 peak of just under 1.5 million.
Everton’s guaranteed Gameweek 28 home match with West Brom, together with further Goodison fixtures against Sunderland and Hull and a trip to Middlesbrough over the next five Gameweeks, will surely push Lukaku’s ownership towards the two million mark.
He’s certainly talking the talk.
“I want to improve every day and deliver more and more. So the challenge is there and I want to take it.”
There’s a strong sense that we should take that challenge too.
The Kane Gang Is Shrinking
Someone just two goals behind Lukaku at present is Tottenham’s Harry Kane.
Why mention him here? You’ll understand when he explains what goal scoring is all about.
“It’s instinct, natural. When that ball drops to me my body takes over and my mind is just blank really. I couldn’t tell you what is in my head at that moment because, really, there is nothing, only focus. Then the goal is pure joy. But how does it happen? We don’t really know…”
That’s it. The word ‘instinct’ will not appear again in this article. Guaranteed. Rest assured. You have my word.
Although talking of instinct, ours has been to distrust Kane this year. He’s never managed to hit the million mark for ownership this season despite delivering 14 goals from just 19 starts.
That makes him a differential, of sorts. Well, as much of a differential as someone with 20.4% ownership can ever be.
But he has the form – six goals in his last six matches – and fixtures on his side. Tottenham travel to Liverpool this weekend and then their schedule up to Gameweek 35 is so easy that you’ll have to check it out for yourself to make it at least feel a little bit like hard work.
And even the one potential spanner in the works – missing Gameweek 28 because of the FA Cup quarter-finals – might not occur. Spurs are away at Fulham in the fifth round, which is arguably the toughest tie any of the Premier League teams still standing in the competition will face.
The instinct of Fantasy managers is to ditch Kane – he’s the Gameweek’s third most popular transfer out. Not far behind him is Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and yet the Swede costs 0.3 more, will definitely miss Gameweek 26 (which Kane won’t) and is likely to have a Gameweek 28 blank as well if United can overcome Blackburn in the FA Cup.
Okay, so United’s schedule is just as pleasant as Tottenham’s in the short to medium term.
But Kane is cheaper, in arguably more explosive form and owned by 20% fewer managers than Zlatan.
So it might be wise to ditch the instinct and stick to the facts.
How Low Can Sergio Go?
One striker with even greater ownership issues is Sergio Aguero.
He’s currently in just 17.8% of Fantasy squads and has only been less popular when he was serving a four-stretch for his studs-up meet and greet with David Luiz’ upper body.
Sergio is currently nestled between Harry and Zlatan for transfers out this week for two reasons:
1) Jesus
2) Jesus! City are almost certain to miss Gameweeks 26 and 28
But Pep Guardiola is still insisting that reason number 1 is no reason at all.
“I understand the debate but there is no doubt about the quality of Sergio. I can say how happy I am with what he did – except the seven games when he was banned. Sergio remains the most, or one of the most, important players in our squad. Without him it will not be possible. This guy (Jesus) arrives, he played good. That’s why he was playing but they can play together. Gabriel can play on the left. Now I have many options up front.”
There’s more than a whiff of a charm offensive about Guardiola and Aguero at the moment. In fact, in the next comment he manages to be both charming and offensive.
“It has not been easy for Sergio, but there are five guys in this position and he remains one of the most important players in our squad. He’s going to play with and without Gabriel, but today I decided to stick with the three guys up front because they played so well against Palace and West Ham. His reaction to not starting today was perfect. Don’t worry about that. It is difficult to leave players like Bravo, Fernando, Otamendi and Kelechi out because they all deserve to play.”
Mentioning Aguero in the same breath as Claudio Bravo? Get your agent on the phone, Sergio, it’s time for a move.
Jesus, meanwhile, has been busy buttering up the boss.
“He’s crazy about football, like me. Twenty-four hours a day! When I’m not training or playing, I’m watching football or watching something football related on my phone, or about our next rival. We have that thing in common. I play football video games too. He’s a good guy. For the short time I’ve been here I’ve realised he’s a really good guy. He deserves everything he has won in his career.”
If we’re talking video games, Jesus is currently Pro Evo 4 and Aguero is Chris Kamara Street Soccer.
But the point about who should be starting might well already be a moot one.
The likelihood of just two matches in the next four for City is bad enough, but the three fixtures after that involve Liverpool at home and Arsenal and Chelsea away.
So really, the 136,000+ who’ve bought into Jesus this week should be castigated for their short-termism, while the 17.8% still holding on to Aguero really need to look elsewhere.
Because however good Pep’s men are suddenly looking again – and Jesus has to take plenty of the credit for that – two blanks and then three tough tests in a row means the message from the City is crystal clear: sell, sell, sell!
I’m Still Special, My Team Less So
The message coming out of United, meanwhile, is a typical Mourinho mash-up.
Firstly, Jose decides to thank himself for everyone else’s excellence.
“My team is playing very well. But for many, many years in my career – especially in this country when my teams were ruthless and when my teams were phenomenal defensively and very good on the counter-attack – I listened, week after week, how that was not enough in spite of winning the title three times. It looks like, this season, to be phenomenal defensively and in counter-attack is art, so it is a big change in England.”
Ahem. Bitter much, Jose? Bitter enough to claim that a Chelsea side he no longer manages is a mere 14 points clear of a United side he currently does.
But he’s soon off the subject of his own brilliance as art’s creator and on to the limitations of his team.
“Some of our players from these attacking creative positions they could – they should – score more goals. When you see the number of goals we score, there is not a true relation between our attacking production and the number of payers we put in attacking positions and the number of goals we score.”
The three goals United put past Leicester at the weekend was only the fifth time they’ve scored more than twice in a match all season.
Small wonder, then, that only Zlatan (41.4%) finds himself in the top ten owned strikers or midfielders among United players. In fact, he and David de Gea (33.9%) are the only two Red Devils owned by more than 10% of FPL managers.
United have scored 36 goals this season, which puts them seventh in that particular league table. That sounds okay, but such gung-ho, all out attack outfits as West Brom have managed 32 with considerably less attacking assets at their disposal and Tony ‘Defence Is The Best Form Of Attack. And Defence. And Everything’ Pulis at the helm.
So who is to blame for this situation?
Zlatan is the obvious target. He’s had more attempts (95) than any other striker this season. A lot more, actually – second placed Diego Costa has managed just 68.
Their respective conversion rates says it all. Costa turns 22.1% of his chances into goals, Ibrahimovic 15.8%. In fact, only five regular strikers have a worse rate than Zlatan’s and they’re all in teams in the bottom half of the table.
Over to you, Jose. Stick the knife in.
“When you speak about Zlatan’s goals you should always add 14 goals and one penalty in 31 matches played in England in all competitions. You should always add that extra item.”
No knifing there. How about the man himself? Will he fall on his sword?
“I know there were many people who said I wouldn’t even score 20 but that is nothing I focus on. I have 20 goals and seven assists.”
Nope. Not a bit of it.
So United aren’t scoring enough and yet nobody’s to blame. To be fair to Zlatan, he’s managed 15 league goals for his huge FPL following.
But as mentioned above, it could be time to sell the Swede – at least in the short term.
Gameweek 26 is already a goner and Gameweek 28 is likely to follow suit unless United can’t find their way past a Blackburn side currently three points from safety in the Championship.
Because while it’s true that a striker has got to be in the right place to miss chances as well as take them, not even Zlatan is good enough to score in a match that’s been postponed.
Although he’d probably tell you otherwise.
