Relegation battling differentials

Price Change Predictions

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	A, Vs
Up	Thiago	BRE	A
Down	Mateta	CRY	C
No Change	Welbeck	BHA	C, Rest
No Change	Woltemade	NEW	B

Risers

Fallers

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Foden	MCI	8.4m	239.3%	Very Likely
Thiago	BRE	6.8m	142.6%	Very Likely
Bruno G.	NEW	6.8m	132.2%	Very Likely
Raya	ARS	5.9m	132.7%	Very Likely
J.Timber	ARS	6.4m	118.3%	Very Likely
Neto	CHE	7.2m	110.0%	Very Likely
Guéhi	CRY	5.1m	109.5%	Very Likely
Casemiro	MUN	5.5m	101.9%	Very Likely
Saka	ARS	10.1m	80.9%	Unlikely
Roefs	SUN	4.7m	89.1%	Unlikely
Burn	NEW	5.1m	83.2%	Unlikely
Gvardiol	MCI	5.8m	77.9%	Unlikely
Mitchell	CRY	5.0m	82.2%	Unlikely
Truffert	BOU	4.5m	80.7%	Unlikely
Cullen	BUR	5.0m	79.1%	Unlikely
Matheus N.	MCI	5.3m	77.8%	Unlikely
Rogers	AVL	6.9m	68.2%	Unlikely
Szoboszlai	LIV	6.6m	71.4%	Unlikely
Tavernier	BOU	5.5m	74.8%	Unlikely
Chalobah	CHE	5.2m	62.0%	Unlikely
Lacroix	CRY	5.1m	70.8%	Unlikely
Cash	AVL	4.7m	49.8%	Unlikely
O.Dango	BRE	6.0m	65.7%	Unlikely
Verbruggen	BHA	4.4m	67.4%	Unlikely
J.Palhinha	TOT	5.5m	69.5%	Unlikely
Petrović	BOU	4.5m	67.6%	Unlikely
Sánchez	CHE	4.8m	64.6%	Unlikely
Livramento	NEW	4.9m	66.4%	Unlikely
Dúbravka	BUR	4.0m	63.8%	Unlikely
Muñoz	CRY	6.1m	52.2%	Unlikely
Amad	MUN	6.3m	61.2%	Unlikely
Dewsbury-Hall	EVE	5.0m	43.3%	Unlikely
Barnes	NEW	6.4m	58.3%	Unlikely
Ballard	SUN	4.6m	54.6%	Unlikely
King	FUL	4.5m	54.5%	Unlikely
Schade	BRE	7.0m	51.5%	Unlikely
De Ligt	MUN	5.0m	51.6%	Unlikely
Sessegnon	FUL	5.4m	47.3%	Unlikely
Anderson	NFO	5.4m	47.5%	Unlikely
Merino	ARS	6.0m	42.0%	Unlikely

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Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Mateta	CRY	8.1m	150.4%	Very Likely
Tonali	NEW	5.4m	158.9%	Very Likely
Semenyo	BOU	7.7m	137.2%	Very Likely
Georginio	BHA	5.7m	128.7%	Very Likely
João Pedro	CHE	7.4m	122.2%	Very Likely
Mbeumo	MUN	8.5m	104.6%	Very Likely
M.Salah	LIV	14.1m	107.7%	Very Likely
Vicario	TOT	5.0m	114.2%	Very Likely
Tel	TOT	6.3m	106.7%	Very Likely
Maguire	MUN	4.4m	106.7%	Very Likely
Gabriel	ARS	6.3m	102.6%	Very Likely
Kerkez	LIV	5.7m	104.4%	Very Likely
Coppola	BHA	4.3m	99.7%	Likely
Darlow	LEE	4.0m	99.7%	Likely
Dorgu	MUN	4.2m	97.1%	Likely
Isidor	SUN	5.6m	95.4%	Maybe
Botman	NEW	4.9m	97.2%	Maybe
Christie	BOU	5.0m	97.7%	Maybe
Mainoo	MUN	4.7m	95.9%	Maybe
Dixon	EVE	3.9m	96.4%	Maybe
Welch	EVE	3.9m	95.5%	Maybe
Martinez	AVL	5.1m	98.3%	Maybe
Baleba	BHA	4.7m	93.1%	Maybe
Pedro Porro	TOT	5.4m	93.7%	Maybe
Ortega Moreno	MCI	4.8m	93.3%	Unlikely
Mac Allister	LIV	6.3m	92.6%	Unlikely
Boateng	BUR	4.8m	94.5%	Unlikely
Okafor	LEE	5.5m	94.4%	Unlikely
Young	AVL	4.4m	92.2%	Unlikely
Arrizabalaga	ARS	4.2m	91.2%	Unlikely
Obi	MUN	4.3m	90.0%	Unlikely
Byram	LEE	3.9m	89.5%	Unlikely
George	CHE	4.9m	90.4%	Unlikely
Travers	EVE	4.4m	91.2%	Unlikely
Pinnock	BRE	4.3m	90.9%	Unlikely
Alderete	SUN	4.1m	88.2%	Unlikely
Matete	SUN	4.4m	89.4%	Unlikely
Akinmboni	BOU	3.9m	89.6%	Unlikely
Enzo	CHE	6.7m	82.8%	Unlikely
McGill	BHA	4.0m	87.0%	Unlikely

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FPL Fixture Ticker

Watchlists

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Raya Martin	ARS	C
No Change	Alisson	LIV	C, Vs
No Change	Donnarumma	MCI	C, Vs, Sus
No Change	Ramsdale	NEW	C
No Change	Sels	NFO	B
No Change	Dubravka	BUR	C, £

Last updated: 6 Dec, 2025 12:36am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	van Dijk	LIV	B, Vs
No Change	Muñoz	CRY	A, Sus
No Change	Jurriën Timber	ARS	C
No Change	O’Reilly	MCI	B, Vs
No Change	de Ligt	MUN	B, Inj
No Change	Thiaw	NEW	A
No Change	Andersen	FUL	B
No Change	Milenkovic	NFO	B
No Change	van Hecke	BHA	A, £
No Change	Mukiele	SUN	C, £

Last updated: 6 Dec, 2025 12:41am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Saka	ARS	A
No Change	Bruno Fernandes	MUN	B
No Change	Foden	MCI	A, Vs
No Change	Semenyo	BOU	C
No Change	Gakpo	LIV	B, Vs, Rest
No Change	Minteh	BHA	B
No Change	Bruno Guimarães	NEW	A
Up	Schade	BRE	C
No Change	Anderson	NFO	A, £
Down	Fernández	CHE	B

Last updated: 6 Dec, 2025 12:48am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	A, Vs
Up	Thiago	BRE	A
Down	Mateta	CRY	C
No Change	Welbeck	BHA	C, Rest
No Change	Woltemade	NEW	B

Relegation candidates always seem to perform much better during the last few games of the season. We often see dramatic great escapes from the likes of Sunderland and Newcastle, which leads to an increase in goals, assists and clean sheets from unexpected low-owned players.

This article will take a look at the last two campaigns to find out whether Premier League relegation batters are a good place to look for season run in differentials.

I have decided to review the averages statistics of relegation battlers in 2015 and 2016 Gameweek 32-28 vs Gameweek 1-38

Teams

2014/2015 Sunderland. Aston Villa, Hull and Burnley

2015/2016 Sunderland, Newcastle and Norwich

2015/2016

	Average goals per game		Average conceded per game		Average clean sheets per game
	GW 32-38	GW 1-38	GW 32-38	GW 1-38	GW 32-38	GW 1-38
Sunderland	1.71	1.26	1	1.63	0.43	0.18
Newcastle	1.86	1.16	1	1.71	0.43	0.21
Norwich	1.00	1.03	1.86	1.76	0.00	0.13

Summary

The statistics were more comprehensive than I expected when indicating improved performance at the season end. Newcastle and Sunderland would of scored nearly 70 goals if they had maintained their goal scoring form over the season and only just behind Chelsea 73 and Arsenal 71. The clean sheets chance also considerably improved to 16, which is only one behind Chelsea.

2014/2015

	Average goals per game		Average conceded per game		Average clean sheets per game
	GW 32-38	GW 1-38	GW 32-38	GW 1-38	GW 32-38	GW 1-38
Sunderland	1	0.82	1.29	1.39	0.43	0.34
Aston Villa	1.57	0.82	2.14	1.50	0.29	0.26
Hull	0.57	0.87	1.14	1.34	0.43	0.26
Burnley	0.29	0.74	0.57	1.39	0.43	0.26

Summary

A similar picture is painted, with Aston Villa nearly doubling their goals output from 0.82 to 1.57 goals per game, which equates to a potential 59 goals over a season ( top four performance levels). The three clean sheets out of seven for Sunderland, Villa and Burnley are double their average and are at a title winning level if maintained over a season.

Conclusion

I think based on the results that looking beyond the top four teams over the remaining games could be vital in catching our mini league leaders. There are risks with this as a strategy as you may miss out on high owned players points and this would have a more negative impact on your overall rank not just your mini-league.

A key conclusion is the improved defensive returns among relegation scrappers, which indicates defenders from Middlesbrough, Swansea, Hull and Sunderland could be key differentials for those looking to catch mini-league leaders.

Player Recommendations

Hull – Maguire, Robertson, Clucas, Hernandez and Markovic

Sunderland- Pickford, Kone, Denayer, Janzaj and Anichebe

Middlesbourgh- Brannagan, Gibson, Valdes, De Roon and Negredo

Swansea – Fabianski, Naughton, Fer and of course Sigurdsson

Clifford☯

8 years, 7 months ago

Cheers. Nice article.
Already brought Gibson & Negredo for the DGW.

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Thanks Kryten. Any reason why you're not recommending Defoe?

Kryten
8 years, 7 months ago
I admit I forgot to list Defoe . If I am honest I prefer defenders from the relegation candidates eg Kone as the attackers in the top teams potential explosiveness will out weigh potential consistency of relegation strikers like Defoe
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1. Toast
  8 years, 7 months ago
  Don't forget the attackers though. I have fond memories of Townsend at Newcastle. Crouch at Norwich. There is always something more rewarding about unearthing a hidden gem.
  
  Out of the above Sunderland fixtures are the best. I think todays game will be key. I'm playing Pickford in the hope of a turnaround. I would also fancy Hull and Swansea to do well. Middlesbrough fixtures look awful though so I'm ignoring them apart from this double GW as I can wildcard them out after
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  1. Kryten
    8 years, 7 months ago
    Yeah maybe middlesbourgh are down. I have Pickford he needs to start replying my faith in him and started getting as many points of Heaton. I agree with you hull and Swansea should see a big form increase so I decided to start McGuire in hope he starts
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