Opinion
3 May 2017 1400 comments
Mark Mark
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Jesus saves our Wildcard frontlines, the champions-elect demand our attention and Sanchez and Gabbiadini find a place in our squads through fear rather than form. With this, we find closure on Gameweek 35.

The Player

There were bigger points scorers in the Gameweek, but the return of Jesus to the Manchester City line-up – and to the scoresheet at Middlesbrough – was undoubtedly significant for Fantasy managers.

During his seven-match absence we were left to wrestle with Sergio Aguero’s hefty price tag, although that was offset by the Argentine’s prolific form, all the while knowing that, once Gameweek 37 was upon us, we would likely be forced to overlook the City attack through lack of funds.

But Jesus has arrived to provide a potentially perfect solution.

Priced some 4.1 cheaper than his team-mate, the Brazilian has instantly been elevated to near-essential status as coverage of City’s remaining fixtures in our Wildcard plans.

Fuelled by their bid to seal a top four spot and fend off their Manchester rivals, Pep Guardiola’s side must surely push for victories and goals over matches with Palace, West Brom, Leicester City and Watford.

That’s a set of opponents that gifts Jesus the opportunity to continue his extraordinary ascent as a top-flight striker and Fantasy asset.

Clearly held in the highest regard by Guardiola, Jesus’ pitch time seems assured – either as a lone striker or paired with Aguero.

As last night’s Big Numbers article revealed, while Aguero remains peerless when it comes to the frequency of his goal attempts, Jesus has all the hallmarks of an even more efficient taker of chances.

Heralded for his movement and work rate by his manager, Jesus’ ability to sniff out and convert opportunities has been evident over his six appearances and will doubtless come to the fore over the remaining four.

Jesus will see out his first Premier League campaign as a key element of our squads, before becoming a major target for the new season.

The Team

If Sunday’s trip to Goodison Park was the final major test of their title-winning credentials, then Chelsea passed with flying colours.

Everton welcomed Antonio Conte’s side on the back of eight successive wins in front of their own fans, yet that fine form counted for nothing as the league leaders reinstalled their four-point cushion over Spurs at the summit with an emphatic 3-0 triumph.

The remaining schedule, which affords the Stamford Bridge outfit visits from Middlesbrough and Sunderland either side of a Double Gameweek 37 away to West Brom and at home to Watford, reads more like a procession and could barely be more conducive to Fantasy returns.

With Wildcards on the menu for many, Eden Hazard is the jewel in the crown – the Belgian has bagged points in seven of his last eight, while six double-figure hauls at home underline his armband credentials.

Yet Pedro’s return to the first XI with the opener at Everton also highlights the value to be had in the Chelsea attack. At a price of 6.8 to Hazard’s 10.5, the Spaniard offers a double-up option for those who reckon Diego Costa’s 10.3 price tag is a little too lofty for their liking.

Despite the recent clamour to acquire Man City’s Gabriel Jesus, Costa – as shown by a season-high 16 points in his previous home appearance – cannot be overlooked either. Indeed, he’s the most transferred-in Chelsea player since the weekend deadline passed, with over 45,000 snapping up his services – second only to Jesus up front.

At the back, a first clean sheet in 12 attempts served as a timely reminder of the resilience that sees Chelsea’s backline dominate three of the top four spots in the FPL defender rankings.

While Marcos Alonso’s 5.5 points per match ensures that he remains our preferred pick, the six-goal Gary Cahill has clambered to the summit ahead of his team-mate and could appeal as a double-up option for those looking to place their faith in Conte’s backline.

The one caveat in investing heavily is that the Blues boss could potentially rotate his options should the league be sewn up early.

Given that he’s on his way out of Stamford Bridge at the end of the season, we can surely expect John Terry to feature in at least one of those remaining matches, with the Gameweek 38 clash against relegated Sunderland perhaps earmarked as a suitable send-off.

Similarly, Nathan Ake – at a price of just 3.8 – may yet have a part to play in Conte’s plans if David Luiz fails to recover from the knock that forced him off against the Toffees.

Investing in Chelsea’s main men looks a no-brainer as they seek to clinch the crown, though we ultimately need Spurs to play their part and keep up the pressure for as long as possible to avoid rest and rotation creeping into Conte’s thoughts and potentially scuppering our best-laid plans.

The Talking Point

Just over a month ago, when we began speculating on Gameweeks 36 and 37 and the opportunities they would present, we had few doubts on our two top transfer targets.

Destined for two extra fixtures, Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez and Southampton’s Manolo Gabbiadini appeared essential weapons to exploit the potential on offer.

Now, weeks later and on the eve of these opportunities, our confidence in both players has all but evaporated.

Discussed at length in last night’s ScoutCast, there is every chance that both will remain part of our end of season shake-up – but mainly through our own fear and anxiety.

We will welcome both Sanchez and Gabbiadini into our virtual dressing rooms with trepidation rather than confidence.

It seems ridiculous to doubt Sanchez given his pedigree, and yet it’s not just his recent record of a single goal in six Gameweeks that causes alarm. In the main, it’s Arsenal’s disjointed form, fragile confidence and Sanchez’s almost awkward role in their new tactics and formation that provide the key concerns.

The Chilean is not a player that’s easily put in the corner and silenced, and yet, in recent matches opponents have done just that, with Arsene Wenger seemingly unable to extract a match-winning performance from an undoubted world class talent.

Backstage dissent could be a factor at the Emirates and it also seems likely to be playing a part in Southampton’s current malaise.

Manager Claude Puel is under pressure amid talk of fall-outs with key squad members. The Saints faithful are also far from content, disgruntled by a dismal home record which has produced just 17 goals from 16 St Mary’s matches.

Gabbiadini was bought to solve that issue but, over his last three appearances, he has struggled to mirror his explosive early form.

Puel’s decision to hook the Italian before the hour-mark on two of those three occasions has hardly helped to feed his confidence or calm dissent among supporters.

Now we approach the two double Gameweeks wondering if Gabbiadini will be given the minutes to show his worth and whether Southampton can overcome testing fixtures and rediscover a semblance of form.

Sanchez and Gabbiadini were once essential pillars that would underpin our entire Wildcard strategy. Now they appear fragile platforms on which to build our end of season plans.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

  1. Evasivo
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    What your guys thoughts on Willy>Forster for free?

    1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Nope.

    2. Kings of Lyon ★
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Madness.

    3. Sess!
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Never get your willy out

    4. Evasivo
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      he gas 2 x dgw though vs Willy's one?

      1. My Name Is Prince
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        If that's the only thing your looking at, then go for it :s

        1. Evasivo
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Not the only thing, but thought he'd outscore Willy overall... I'm surprised by the response but glad I asked!

      2. _Make
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Willy has three home fixtures in four, and all four are potential cleanies.

    5. alexmj
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Willy is the cheapest nailed option in City defence, Stephens Yoshida and Cedric both cheaper better options for Saints defence.

    6. Evasivo
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Okay lovely, thank you all 🙂

  2. Ravager
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Bottomed:

    Hennessey (Pickford)
    Stephens Bailly Vertongen (Holgate Gibson)
    Alli Hazard Sanchez King (De Roon)
    Lukaku Kane Gabbi

    0.0 ITB. Suggestions for a hit?

    Mainly want to get out De Roon/Gibson out to get some DGWers in their place.

  3. Pirlø's Pen
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Views on Gabriel (ARS) as an option, is he likely to play the next 4?

    1. My Name Is Prince
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      IMO, no!

    2. slamdunk
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Might be safe for one or two games but risky after that imo

    3. Toure The Route
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Just don't see it happening but it could .
      Mustafi might slot in or holding .
      Seems a decent punt he should start 3/4 but what are the odds of them keeping a CS with one game reduced ?
      Not too sure . They already have some tricky fixtures .
      United and Soton won't be a breezy csheet, best to have the most nailed on player .

    4. Pariße
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Should play 3 of 4 at least.

    5. Individual
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Not a fan personally. Just a dreadful defender (am a Gooner) who any team would, as Spurs did, seek to target and isolate. Am going Monreal here I think over him - 0.9 more but nailed to the mast.

  4. My Name Is Prince
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    WC draft no 768:

    Cech / Willy

    Alonso / Monreal / Vertonghen / Yoshida / Stephens

    Sanchez / Haz / Eriksen / Sane / King

    Kane / Jesus / Anichebe

    Can do lovely things in defense with Anichebe...

    1. Evasivo
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Looks lovely! I'd personally prefer Costa over Jesus, but guessing fund wont allow?

      1. My Name Is Prince
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        No, plus I love Jeeeeesus! 😉

      2. My Name Is Prince
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        0.0 in da bank...

    2. Toure The Route
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Like this idea, Anichebe gives you a solid defence and that keeper double up.
      Good thing your tv isn't too shabby either to get that midfield .
      I m looking at something very similar .
      Imo , defenders could shine this dgw as they did in gw 34/26 and the easiest slots for differentials at a cut price cost .
      Nice 3-5-2 !

      1. My Name Is Prince
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah, and easy to just bench Anichebe in GWs 36 & 38

    3. Toby Lerone
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Looking good. What defenders will you bench this week?

      1. My Name Is Prince
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Might even bench the Soton duo as they are there for 37 Bench boost... As is Anichebe...

    4. Bullet Eder
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Great team, best I've seen. Perfect template. Team value must be huge.

    5. _Make
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Almost identical to mine except

      Eriksen/Alli
      Monreal/Cahill
      Cech/Pickford

      So I like it 😉

  5. Morgs
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Any changes to this WC team? Am bench boosting in 37. 0.1 left itb

    Caballero (Pickford)
    Alonso, Stephens, Vertonghen (Bailly, Holgate)
    Sanchez, Hazard, Alli, King (Carroll)
    Jesus, Costa, Kane

    Unsold on defence (other than Alonso and Stephens). Any ideas greatly appreciated!

    1. MGD
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Downgrade Bailley and get Sané instead of King or Carroll?

      1. Toure The Route
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        He can't. Still not enough money to do that even if he gets the cheapest defender in yoshida .

    2. Toure The Route
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Would punt on Gabriel over Bailly .
      Arsenal defence willl be hugely owned similar to united's defence in Gw 34, so going without one seems like your call to make. Gabriel isn't assured of starts though but with Bailly injured slightly he could be rested in one of the games as well.

      1. Morgs
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks, I do like that. Would leave me 0.7m to upgrade Carroll to a double gameweek player for gw37 BB, but that doesn't give many options. Any ideas on other downgrades or should I just settle for Carroll?

        1. Mingo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Albrighton or JWP? I'm trying to decide between them both.

        2. Toure The Route
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Nah I think you should go for someone else.
          Can you afford albrighton ?
          He might be exactly 4.9 too.
          If he rises further you could be priced out ...or JWP, hope he plays 3/4 games . Both have more attacking threat .
          But having seen Carroll , he is due an assist to Llorente so I feel it could happen soon . He is very crucial to Swansea s tactics even though he is an Fpl cheapie . Gives those early crosses from the left so I'd be optimistic if I can't afford anyone else anyway.

  6. Erlinjo
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    GTG for gameweek 35 & 36 ?

    Dea gea

    Yoshida Stephens Holgate
    Sanchez Alli King Hazard
    Gabbi Kane Jesus

    Bench :Pickford, Eriksen, Bailly , Fabio

  7. slamdunk
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Is eriksen and anichebe to jesus and a bench fodder mid up to 4.8m worth a -4?

    Can't decide.

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      nah

    2. Toure The Route
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Doesn't look like it .
      If you do captain Jesus though and he gets 8-10 points it could pay off well.
      Also depends whether you have Alli .

      1. slamdunk
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah already have alli and Kane...have gabbi to.

        1. Toure The Route
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Looks like it could be but it could go either way .
          Tough call to make but Eriksen is in the form of his life seriously , very hard to remove him now . Although Spurs next few games are mostly away and Eriksen is known to favour home at the start of the season.
          I might do it if you're really keen on Jesus.

  8. pundit of punts
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC draft gents?

    Cech Caballero
    Azpilicueta Luiz Gabriel Yoshida Stephens
    Sanchez Hazard Alli Sane Morrison
    Kane Lukaku Gabbiadini

    1. My Name Is Prince
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I'd prefer King and Anichebe to be frank...

      1. pundit of punts
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Gabbiadini has 2 extra games though over king.

        Morrison and Anichebe are more or less same.

        1. My Name Is Prince
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Gabbi won't play 180mins

    2. liiusions
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Jesus over Lukaku imo

      1. pundit of punts
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Sorry.

        That is Jesus.

  9. Champions united
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    1)lukaku+sigyy>costa+sane(-4)
    2)lukaku+sigyy>jesus+9.4 mid

    1. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      2 imo

  10. GS456
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Looking at this now for 36.

    G2G?

    Cech

    Yoshida, Stephens, Alonso

    Hazard, Sanchez (trip c), Eriksen, Sane

    Gabbiadini, Kane, Costa

    Subs: Pickford, Clichy, Albrighton, Holgate

    Ready?

    1. Darklord_bg
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Sane to King and Gabbi to Jesus

      1. GS456
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        nahh

        1. Darklord_bg
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          You are brave 🙂

      2. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Transfer 2 DGWers for 1dgw for a hit.... your're joking surely?

        1. Darklord_bg
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Jesus in one week will outscore Gabbi in two

    2. Bullet Eder
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Start Clichy over Stephens.

  11. MallettMan
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Pickford Walker and Lukaku -> Cech Vertonghen and Jesus for a -4 this WEEK or wait on Cech for the week after??

    1. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Worth -4 imo.

  12. Bolasie
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    A, Pedro and play 3-5-2
    B, Cahill and play 4-4-2

    1. MallettMan
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      tough one. Cahill most likely to return at middlesbrough

    2. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B imo

  13. farqy
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Right....

    1. Hazard, Pedro & Anichebe
    2. Costa, Pedro & Romeu

    Cheers!

    1. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      1

  14. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Guys, please help me.

    1. Who will likely score more points for GW 36
    A. Sanchez
    B. Hazard
    C. Kane
    D. de Jesus

    2. Choice of GK for GW 36
    A. Jaku
    B. Heaton

    3. Forward for GW 36
    A. Vardy
    B. Costa

    Cheers, thx you.

    1. MallettMan
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      A
      A
      B

    2. Darklord_bg
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      D
      A
      A

    3. Expected Toulouse
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B
      B
      A

  15. Wildcard Algorithm
    J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Fantasy Football Scout daily hot topic

    Wildcard/Double Gameweek Algorithm

    As discussed on last night’s Scoutcast I have started to use a very basic algorithm to assess the best player prospects for the season run in - a time of double Gameweeks and wildcards in play for many.

    This aims to focus purely on Fantasy form, fixtures and factor in whether a player is in a team that is already on the beach or has something to play for/still motivated.

    I decided to do this to put my selections into perspective and help me realize that even with two games, a player may be a poor choice (eg Gabbiadini)

    It is basically adding/subtracting three figures to come up with a score for GWK 36 -38 (note not FPL score)
    Above 40 being exceptionally good
    Above 30 very good
    Above 20 ok
    Below 20 poor

    The three figures it adds/subtracts are

    1.Points from the last four (excluding appearance pts)

    2. +/- 4 points on whether they are on the beach or not.

    3. Fixtures*

    *Fixtures 36-38 – based on reversing the numbers via the FPL site – so 1 (easy) becomes 5, 5 (hard) becomes 1. This essentially factors in Dgwks.

    Here is a selection of teams I was interested in – feel free to do more and use this method to compare two players you are considering.

    Chelsea 17 (4,4,4,5)
    Arsenal 17 (2,3,4,5,3)
    Man City 16 (4,4,4,4)
    Southampton 14 (2,2,4,2,4)
    Tottenham 13 (4,2,3,4)
    Leicester 12 (4,2,2,4)
    Bournemouth 12 (4,5,3)

    Here’s some examples of ones I’ve already looked at.

    Strikers

    Costa – 43
    Jesus – 38
    Kane – 34
    Gabbiadini 13

    Midfielders

    Hazard 37
    Eriksen 34
    Pedro32
    Sane 31
    Ozil 29
    Josh King 29
    Sanchez 28
    Tadic 15

    Defenders

    Cahill 38
    Monreal 31
    Charlie Daniels 29
    Robert Huth 23
    Yoshida 21

    1. Kings of Lyon ★
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I really really like this alogrithm

    2. Klopp For The Kopps 😆
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      This Clearly shows how Gabby and Kane are more important than Kane also considering their Price
      Either have all 3 or Drop Kane

      1. Klopp For The Kopps 😆
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        *how Costa and Jesus are

        Sorry, My Bad.

        1. diesel001
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Ville Ronka has gone without Kane.

          1. alexmj
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 7 months ago

            And me

          2. Luca Brasi
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 7 months ago

            And is on track for his worst ever finish.

    3. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Great work Jonty!

    4. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Needed this last week 🙁

      1. Kings of Lyon ★
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        +1

      2. Darklord_bg
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Same here

    5. Pirlø's Pen
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Getting more and more dragged towards the Ozil, Sanchez double up.

    6. Individual
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      haha heavily trailed last night... great work.

    7. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Alonso vs Cahill? Hmm......

      Just got a feeling Alonso is going to rip it up against someone.

    8. Gnu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Teams as listed, I have.
      3
      3
      3
      3
      1
      1 Sunderland ( Pickford)

      Very useful but a bit blinking late. 🙂

    9. Trovsmash
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Vert 41 if my maths is correct

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Very much doubt that....unless he's playing up alongside Harry?

        1. Trovsmash
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          eep

      2. Springbank
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Vertonghen =37
        (20pts from last 4 fixtures + 4 + 13)
        Still best value for money defender and nailed on

    10. Gnu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Where's Fernandinho ? 😯

    11. Hungry Singh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Bearing this data in mind, is it therefore reasonable to assume that Jesus will outscore Lukaku by more than 4 points, for the remainder of the season?

      1. Toure The Route
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Seems so . I'd punt on that even without data .

        1. Hungry Singh
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Would you take out Lukaku this week or next?

          Very wary, considering it's Swansea and Watford, and he's chasing that Golden Boot!

    12. My Name Is Prince
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Where's Dele?

      1. Annie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        5 less than Eriksen

        1. Annie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Fewer

          1. My Name Is Prince
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 7 months ago

            ?

            1. Annie
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              8 years, 7 months ago

              5 fewer

              1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 7 months ago

                Essential?

          2. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 7 months ago

            Essential?

        2. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Essential?

          1. Annie
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            8 years, 7 months ago

            Catching your pitiful ass up 🙂

            1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 7 months ago

              Your red arrow suggests not

              1. Annie
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                8 years, 7 months ago

                Can won't score for you again, muppet

    13. My Name Is Prince
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      So this doesn't take into account rotation? For instance, Dele vs Sane, 29 vs 31, but Dele is a lot safer pick surely!

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        It sort of does...eg Pedro still gets pts even from 20 mins off the bench.

        Sane can get pts from the bench too.

    14. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      You should also factor if the opponent is on the beach

    15. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Chelsea 17 (4,4,4,5)
      Arsenal 17 (2,3,4,5,3)
      Man City 16 (4,4,4,4)
      Southampton 14 (2,2,4,2,4)
      Tottenham 13 (4,2,3,4)
      Leicester 12 (4,2,2,4)
      Bournemouth 12 (4,5,3)
      Burnley 12 (4,4,4)
      Hull 11 (5,4,2)
      Liverpool 11 (3,4,4)
      Swansea 11 (3,4,4)
      Sunderland 11 (4,4,2,1)
      Man Utd 10 (2,1,3,4)
      Everton 10 (4,4,2)
      WBA (3,1,2,4)
      Stoke 9 (4,2,3)
      Palace 8 (2,4,2)
      Watford 8 (3,2,1,2)
      West Ham 7 (2,2,3)
      Middlesbrough 6 (1,3,2)

    16. alexmj
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      If that only Costa above 40 then? And not in many wildcards on here.....

      1. Pieterke30
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        his 16 points vs Soton (biggest haul of the season) helped

    17. merin
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      This is great! Thanks!

      Can you elaborate a bit more on how you do 2.?

      Is it +4 if the team has something to play for and -4 if not?

      And how do you consider if they have something to play for or not?

      1. Sjaugen
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Arsenal -4, can't catch Spurs 😛

      2. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        That's very subjective.

        Up to you really.

        So for example I consider Southampton and West Brom on the beach so a -4.

        I consider Spurs and Chelsea still having something to play for +4

        Then there are those that on current form are still finding motivation - despite heading for mid table obscurity. That's subjective. So for me I consider Bou a +4 as they are playing as if they have something to play for. Others may consider them a -4.

        This system is really flexible and up to whoever uses it to decide.

        1. merin
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Thanks! I'll be trying this out for sure 🙂

    18. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Who is not on the beach? Can we agree a list. I reckon:

      - Chelsea
      - Spurs
      - Liverpool
      - Man City
      - Man Utd (? - EL might be priority?)
      - Arsenal
      - Hull
      - Swansea
      - Palace
      - Middlesbrough (? - perhaps they will be though soon enough so discount them)
      - Burnley(?)
      - West Ham(?)

      Bottom two teams (Burnley / West Ham) are closer than you think to relegation. If West Ham lose their remaining three games (and not exactly kind fixtures) they could be dragged into this. A lot rests on Swansea beating Everton this weekend though

    19. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Excellent

    20. Le Limpar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Something wrong with your algorithm when x3 Charlie Daniels games outscores x5 Alexis Sanchez games.

      HTH

      1. Springbank
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Daniels points last 4 vs Sanchez affect criteria no 1. Totally makes sense

        1. Le Limpar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Cool. Let's see who scores more til e/o season.

          1. Springbank
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 7 months ago

            As in you cannot compRe defenders and attacking players points tally! 50- 60 pts difference between top 3 def and top 3 mid/striker. Just saying algorithm is logical

      2. Springbank
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        As Jonty said this is not FPL projected points.. just an indication of pts potential within their particular position. Course Sanchez will score more than Daniels - hope so- but within the defenders category Daniels remains a good pick

    21. Asaam
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Nice method. I would always double check with underlying stats of the player but this selection basically aligns with form shown by stats.
      I'm going for Siggy in GW36 (scores 27 using this method) and probably switch to Pedro/Sané for GW37, based on their appearances.

    22. roflmaofc
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Anyone buying this? Jonty will get Sanchez and cpt him in gw 36.

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        I've had Sanchez for weeks and as discussed on last night's scoutcast will be captaining him as I don't have the balls to go for an Arsenal defender like Koscielny or Monreal (the only two I think may significantly outscore him).

        1. roflmaofc
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          This means u dont trust your system ? 😉

          1. J0E
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 7 months ago

            Cheeky! 😉

            As said I just don't have the downstairs spheres to captain a defender. Maybe I should though...I honestly think, as we have seen with the likes of DDG and Bailly and even Grant - it is often the defenders that prosper most in DGWKs

            I remember those days of Vidic and BAE hauls in doubles well.....and yes, I didn't captain either of them sadly.

            Tho I think the Vidic one may have been the week when Rooney got 64 (c) pts.

            1. roflmaofc
              • 13 Years
              8 years, 7 months ago

              Hehe, I think the most of us is just waiting for a Sanchez haul, and we're all afraid not having him in team while many others 3 x cpt him.. My point with the OR was if youre chasing or not. At this time I think you have to gamble big if your chasing/have nothing to lose 🙂 Not intended to be rude 😉

              1. J0E
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 16 Years
                8 years, 7 months ago

                Ah, I see. Well in my case - yes I'm chasing. But its more nuanced than that. In my mini lg many rivals are Sanchez less and already wildcarded - so sanchez is a differential for me.

                If I was higher up and chasing lots of Sanchez owners then yep I probably would captain Monreal as I'd have nothing to lose.

    23. Springbank
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Super helpful great stuff Jonty.
      As with YMA however the limitation of this system is that the last 4 fixtures - influencing criteria no 1 - can be a run of easy fixtures or in the case of Jesus dating back to months ago from a player coming back from injury

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Yep....But it can be tailored to each person that uses it. You could try comparing last six points for example between two players.

        1. Springbank
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Hehe interesting

    24. roflmaofc
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      This is bu-llshi-t. What is your OR Jonty?!

      1. Springbank
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Utterly useless comment my friend

        1. roflmaofc
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          At this time OR decides if you should gamble or not. If he is chasing and also trusting this algorythm, then he should avoid sanchez and cap in ex Costa ? Get it?

    25. Creedey
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      aaah.. I like the look of these numbers.

    26. tm245
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Interesting approach - definitely puts form and fixtures into some context and fills me with even more dread about Gabbiadini...

      I'm wondering if you could have just used 1 and 3 for the formula as those wouldn't be as subjective as 2 (applying "on the beach" only to the player's team and not the player's opponent is arbitrary at best). Also, not sure why appearance numbers/rotation are being removed since they are important actual FPL points.

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Yep...feel free to add in appearance pts. I wanted to focus on actual goals, cs etc as there are players like Pedro who can still score well off the bench so discounting 1pt will probably still give the same sort of score.

    27. The Rumour Mill
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Very interesting! Already played my wildcard, but will be interesting to compare the team I went for (very cheap in defence/gk, heavy in midfield, Kane/Jesus/Gabbi up front) with the "template" from the algorithm.

      Team value is a big factor here too of course, mine isn't brilliant, so the money saved by me downgrading Sanchez to Erik/Ozil for example would only have financed me upgrading Maguire to Cahill, or pickford to Coutois anyway, for example.

    28. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      This is great... although confirms my WC team already pretty much so let's see! (Ex Alli who I can't bring myself to ditch). But it should be realised this is static and the scores are dynamic i.e. if Arsenal lose the next couple and their opponents for top 4 win, they will then change to being "on the beach" and resting for the cup final. Would change dramatically.

    29. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Not to c-c-c-c-c-c-combo break on the Jonty love fest, but I honestly don't like this. Seems far too subjective to me, but I'm happy to be proven wrong.

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Actually take that as a compliment as it's designed to be subjective and tweaked to each manager's own thoughts - eg you can reduce, increase or ignore the beach factor.

        Or you can assign your own rating for each fixture .

        For pure objectivity the RMT tool is ideal.

    30. Kuro-o
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      may I ask, how to calculate appearance pts?

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        1 point for each match in which the player plays less than 60 minutes, and 2 for each match in which he plays 60 minutes or more.

    31. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I see no reason for ignoring appearance points. They reflect the fact that some players are more likely than others to play at least 60 minutes.

      The algorithm also does not appear to allow for some players being more subject than others to rotation or injury.

      And it puts too much emphasis on the last 4 matches, whilst completely ignoring the season as a whole (as well as underlying stats), so it is based on insufficient data. Sanchez may be on a bad run, but he is still the top points scorer over the season as a whole, and is therefore far more likely to score big in the last 3 game-weeks than another player who has been equally bad over his last 4 matches but far worse than Sanchez over the whole season. And that is why he is still favourite for this week's armband.

      I like the Fixtures bit though - a very useful refinement. But how reliable are the Fixture Difficulty Ratings, and should they apply equally to defenders and to attacking players? If both sides are expected to score, then it is possible that the match might be good for the team but poor for a defender - or poor for the team but good for an attacking player.

      1. Kuro-o
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        thanks RL!

      2. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        As said - it's designed to be flexible - so for you perhaps add in a long term performance premium when comparing players .

        Or an injury reduction

    32. timPgoodwin
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Has anyone created a template of a team that has the highest accumulative points based on this algorithm? With a team value of say 104/5?

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        That's one for the computer boffins - I'm a pen and paper kinda guy.

        Be great to get this built though ... with options to add in extras - e.g. Injury reduction.

    33. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Son: 26+13+4=43
      Alli: 17+13+4=34

      Alonso: 12+17+4=33
      Jagielka: 23+10=33
      Bailly: 18+10+4=32

    34. Caine & Co.
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      oh my dog..

      points from the last 4: dear dog.. regression to the mean say anything? last time pedro scored 2 in a row he went 7 GWs not scoring. nice indication of 'form'.

      'on the beach': bournemouth has nothing to play for, king wtf. arsenal have/had high stakes in play for top 4 finish, sanchez why you don't score.

      the fact you have likes of pedro and costa in top of your list, facepalm. you have basically compared the recent fpl points returns and used them to predict future returns. nice algorithm

    35. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      1. I'm not convinced by the adjustment of +/- 4 for whether teams have something to play for or are on the beach.
      This is already partly reflected by the player's Form over the last 4 matches (which ought to be adjusted according to the fixture difficulty of those 4 matches).
      And it might be better to adjust the Fixtures factor instead by adding or subtracting a point (or perhaps half a point) to the FDR for each remaining match depending on whether or not the player's team still has something to play for, and adding or subtracting a further point or half-point depending on whether or not the opposing team still has something to play for.

      2. I think the Form and Fixtures totals ought to be multiplied rather than added.

      3. Is there any evidence that a player is likely to score the same number of FPL points in two matches with FDRs of 4 as in a single match with an FDR of 2 - or four more points in a match with an FDR of 1 than in a match with an FDR of 5?
      It would be interesting to know the average numbers of goals scored and conceded and clean sheets obtained for matches in each of the 5 FDR categories - does anyone have records of FDRs for matches already played this season?
      But are the FDR ratings any more or less reliable anyway than looking at the goals scored and conceded in recent matches by each team and their forthcoming opponents - or do they just simplify the calculations?

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        According to the algorithm, a player with two matches with FDRs of 4 would expect to score the same number of points as a player with a single match with FDR of 2.
        But if you add back the appearance points, then the player with two matches should outscore the other by 2 FPL points.

      2. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        If the FDRs are converted into Multiplication Factors as follows:
        FDR 1 -> Multiplication Factor 1.5
        FDR 2 -> Multiplication Factor 1.25
        FDR 3 -> Multiplication Factor 1.0
        FDR 4 -> Multiplication Factor 0.75
        FDR 5 -> Multiplication Factor 0.5
        then the following formula should produce a better forecast of FPL points for the remaining matches IMO:

        Form (points from last 4 matches, excluding Appearance Points, adjusted for Difficulty) multiplied by Average Multiplication Factor for remaining matches (possibly adjusted for on-the-beach-ness) multiplied by Number of remaining matches
        plus
        Average Appearance Points per match in last 4 matches multiplied by Number of remaining matches.

        This is however still heavily reliant on the player's last 4 matches, which is only a small dataset, and ignores many other factors (form over a longer term, rotation, positional changes, regression, underlying stats etc).

  16. Trovsmash
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    A. Azpi, Pedro, Maguire, Gabbi

    or

    B. Huth TCaroll Costa Yoshida

  17. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    G2G?

    Cech
    Maguire - Vertonghen - Alonso
    Siggy - King - Alli - Hazard
    Jesus - Kane - Costa

    Caballero - Yoshida - Carroll - Holgate

    Will do Maguire to Stephens using my GW37 FT and BB.

    1. Baz
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I'd just play yosh and get stephens on the bench this week. gives you another transfer in case of injury or for a double transfer for GW38? Other than that looks g2g - obvious gamble without sanchez but you cant have em all!

    2. MTPockets
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Honestly, not very clear where Sanchez money has gone.

        1. Toure The Route
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          It's gone into Costa .

      • Baz
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        can you do Siggy to sane?

      • Toure The Route
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Looks great!...even without Sanchez.

    3. BigAsGiroud_
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Best Midfielder below 6.0 for DGW..
      a)Redmond
      b)Capoue
      c)JWP
      d)Albrighton
      e)other

      1. MallettMan
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        c or d but id get king if you havent over all

    4. MGD
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      1. How nailed on is Gabriel?

      2. Who is more safe to start over the 4 GW's? Stephens or Yoshida?

      1. rnrd
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        1- probably will gets 2 or 3 games max out of 5.
        2- Yosh

      2. Baz
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        1. he isn't
        2. Yosh

    5. Jimjam
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Heaton, Jakupovic
      Valencia, Davies, Robertson, Stephens, Wilson
      Sanchez, Hazard, Alli, King, Carroll
      Kane, Vardy, Jesus

      Chasing 30 pts in ML. No WC.

      I have TC and BB. Which to use this week?

      Feel a bit reluctant to TC Sanchez on current form, and feel there are better options next week (including Sanchez's fixtures).

      However, to play BB this week, I'd have to take a -4 to upgrade Wilson to a playing defender, plus Valencia has a tough fixture (and could be rotated).

      I think my hand is forced into TC this week and BB next. Do you agree?

      1. MallettMan
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        I'm in same position. Sort of forced to TC Sanchez this week and BB next despite the better fixtures being next.

        Nice team

        1. Jimjam
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Thanks mate - it makes me wonder whether there are better TC options in GW38, but I guess no DGW then, and entirely unpredictable as to who will be playing for anything.

    6. lordkippe
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      is okazaki a decent shout as a budget striker for bb 37 ?

    7. okan58
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      0FT
      Bank: 2.8

      Heaton
      Walker - Rannochia - Alonso - Daniels
      King - Eriksen - Coutinho - Hazard
      Jesus - Kane (c)
      Subs: Jakupovic, Negredo, De Roon and Ake.

      Any suggestions?

      1. RealSocialDads
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Get rid of walker

      2. Positive vibes
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Walker to Ben Davies, and use the funds for else where, maybe Negredo to Vardy? As Vardy play DGW in 37.

        1. Positive vibes
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Or Walker to other player than Spurs and let Alli in.

    8. RealSocialDads
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      For GW37 and 38 only:

      A. Vert and Cook (-4)
      B. Bailly and Huth
      C. Kompany and Smith (-4)
      D. Clichy and Daniels (-4)

      Rest of defence is:
      DDG Pickford
      Yoshida Robertson Holgate

      and plan to BB in 37

    9. jam
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Anyone saving their WC for 38? Could be a killer move!

      1. rnrd
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        GW38 is the queen of Line-up surprises. WC on 38 might be the worst move ever

        1. jam
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          There'll be 3 or 4 teams that really have to win. Possibly against teams that couldn't care less.
          Week 37 teams are all the same anyway, look at them. Everyone will have the same teams for 38. Huge differential opportunity.

      2. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Eh, no.
        Only kills the player who holds his WC till GW38.

        1. jam
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          SWA vs WBA, BUR vs WHA, MAN vs CPA (if there's a Europa cup final approaching) won't have any surprises but could be very one way.

      3. Toure The Route
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        It doesn't look like anyone is planning it but if you are it's going to be a big punt .
        Not saying it can't pay off but good luck if you're trying this .
        You ll be a genius if it works and a fool if it doesn't, so very thin lines there .

        1. jam
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Hah I've used mine! But if I hadn't I'd be tempted.

    10. Ibracadabra9
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Monreal&Sané or Gabriel&Eriksen?

      Rest of team:
      Caballero - Pickford
      Alonso - Davies - Stephens - Holgate - X
      Sanchez - Redmond - Hazard - King - X
      Kane - Costa - Jesus

      1. rnrd
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        M&S

    11. lordkippe
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      IF I only Had a wildcard i would make this team

      Caballero/Boruc

      Alonso / Monreal / Huth / Stephens / Holgate

      Sanchez / Hazard / Eriksen / King / Chadli

      Kane / Costa / Jesus

      1. walkman666
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        I used my wc about 5 weeks ago, too, and while I improved from it, there was a risk, and it bore out. I have four injured guys. I am therefore going to have a couple of whiskeys Friday evening, and then go -12 to fix it and have the team I need and hope for the best.

    12. tbhogal
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Alonso or Cahill guys?

      1. bitm2007
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Alonso, better chance of attacking points

      2. Toure The Route
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Alonso
        Unless Cahill does a Mawson or a jagielka and scores 3 in a row .
        Been one odd season so I wouldn't be surprised if Cahill does go onto get another goal .
        That said Alonso seems safer and is due a goal himself and he had one explosive week in 22 , everyone here at ffscout will be hoping for a repeat .

    13. CC22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Chasing in a mini-league (currently 2nd by 45 points) and got lured into wildcarding last week, which rather spectacularly failed. Currently got the following:

      Willy, Pickford
      Alonso, Monreal, Davies, Holgate, Stephens
      Sanchez, Hazard, Alli, Sane, JWP
      Kane, Gabbiadini, Afobe

      The leader who I'm chasing has no chips left, and also doesn't currently have Sanchez, Kane or Hazard in his team. I suspect he'll take a hit this week. Is it worth doing Afobe & Pickford out for Anichebe & Cech for a hit...then playing Cech over Willy this week, then having both ready for BB in 37?

      1. Toby Lerone
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        May as well gamble. Roll the dice my friend!

    14. 7 from 3
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      WC Team,

      Cech, Pickford,
      Huth, Alonso, Stephens, Evans, Holebas,
      Ozil, Sanchez, Hazard, Alli, Ward-Prowse,
      Gabbiadini, Jesus, Rashford.

      Any Suggestions?

      1. Toby Lerone
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        No to Evans and holebas... Rashford and Gabbi could be rotated

      2. Toby Lerone
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Maybe anichebe for rashford and upgrade gabbi. Evans to holgate may give you costa

        1. 7 from 3
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Thanks for the info

    15. Hodg55
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Pleading for some advice on my WC team...

      Willy (Heaton)
      Azpi / Robertson / Yoshida (Holgate / Davies)
      Pedro / Sanchez / Sane / Alli / King
      Kane (c) / Jesus (Anichebe)

      0.0 ITB

      1. 7 from 3
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Would you not go for a second DGW goalkeeper?

        1. Hodg55
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          I should... didn't even consider that!

      2. Toure The Route
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Boruc over Heaton for a punt ?

      3. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Pickford