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12 January 2018 23 comments
Hutch_James Hutch_James
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Each week we are reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the Fantasy Football Scout league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).

GAMEWEEK 22 REVIEW

The first Double Gameweek of the season was something of a let-down, with Spurs striker Harry Kane’s illness restricting his pitch time and and Hammers frontman Andy Carroll emerging as an unlikely top-scoring striker.

Here are the Gameweek 22 results in descending order of predictability:

Well done to Adam Bonynge, aka The Chief, from Australia for winning the Yellow Cap in Round 21, with four exact score picks, and nine correct result picks out of 11.

Mr Crowd Wisdom – using the aggregated predictions of the crowd – moved up again, now into 46th place.

The aggregated predictions of the community are making better predictions than most individual players in the game, suggesting that there is credibility in the Wisdom of the Crowd concept.

GAMEWEEK 23 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in Gameweek 23:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Manchester  United sit atop the predicted goals chart this week, which will encourage everyone that is bringing in their number 10 Jesse Lingard, whilst Red Devils striker Romelu Lukaku looks like a possible armband option.

United are also expected to keep a clean sheet, with Newcastle’s defence also predicted to perform well at home stop Swansea.

Is there anything that catches your eye in these predictions?

Good luck!

23 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Cheers for this. Yet more pressure on me to get a Manchester United player in 😉

    1. Pep Pig
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      How rude saying the Foxes will score against Chelsea. Silly crowd 🙂

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Vardy factor isn't it. He loves to score against the big guns.

        1. Pep Pig
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Indeed mate.

  2. The Overthinker
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    According to this, there will be only 1 cs which contradicts with the scoutcast gang ...

    1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Average over a large sample is always likely to be 1

      1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        *1 minimum

      2. Jarnathan
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Why do you think that?

    2. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      The forecast is actually that the 10 meanest defences will concede about 8 goals between them, indicating at least 2 clean sheets, but they don't know which of these 10 will concede the 8 goals.

      Only one of these teams is considered more likely to keep a clean sheet than to concede a goal, but the other nine are all more likely to keep a clean sheet than to concede more than one, and collectively they are expected to concede 8 goals between them.

  3. Eze Really?
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    All the 1 1 draws will never happen.
    They might be decent call but I favour more away wins.

  4. Eze Really?
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I would be interested to know the ratio of away wins over the last 3 years. Is counter attacking more productive these days?

    1. Hutch_James
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Looking at last season:

      Home win: 36%
      Draw: 40%
      Away win: 24%

      This season so far:

      Home win: 43%
      Draw: 27%
      Away win: 30%

    2. Reedy
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      It was 1 : 1.58 home wins : away wins over 5 prem seasons ending in 2014/15. Not exactly what you asked, but close enough 🙂

  5. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Obviously not my main players on my WC, but better set of players:
    A). Ramsey, Richarlison, Ayew (bench)
    B). Son, Albrighton, Quaner (bench)

    1. Jarnathan
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I'd say A. I think eventually Son will lose his place as Spurs return to a 3-4-2-1. Albrighton won't bring in regular points and the stats suggest Richalison will. Ramsey may take a while though to regain form

  6. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    'Is there anything that catches your eye in these predictions?'

    1 CS :-O

  7. fusen
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    so many dull teams playing each other than everyone has defaulted to the easy 1-1

    Really goes to show the state of the premier league this season

  8. Jelder
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Got one a bench conundrum and can't decide who to play/bench - thoughts?

    Pope
    Azpi Otamendi Jones Alonso
    Sterling Son Lingard Salah
    Kane Firmino

    Got Richarlison on the bench but can't decide whether to replace him with someone or not, and I do who for?

    1. Warmsy
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I would save then do Richarlison + 1 to DDG + 1

      1. Jelder
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        As I’ve already got jones, I was going to save this week and get rid of Son and Rich in for KDB and a cheap midfielder

  9. Patch
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Way too many ppl with Klopp gravs.

    Man City are going to steamroll those guys - ouch

  10. Allthepresidentsmen
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I've never seen goals conceded for Newcastle so low.

  11. Sadio
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Which GK to start:

    A) Adrian
    B) Pope