I agree. I'm going with my own opinion this season and I'm off to my best start yet. I still use A/B posts to get some external opinions, but it's YOU who knows your team and rationale best.

Great Post! I think its very important to know why you have a certain player in your time or why you are making a particular transfer and not just get the player who scored last week.

Couldn't agree more, although it has taken me all three seasons on here to learn that. The data and insight available here is extremely valuable, but people's opinions have no more worth than your own.

This season I promised myself I would try to make my own mind up and go with my gut. Have scored 90+ in the first two weeks, and the only player I selected because of on this site was Josh King instead of Callum Wilson, and we all know how that one turned out...

Well said mate. Can be painful, however, coming here on matchdays when the template team is on fire

Totally agree! Monreal to score this weekend.

Well said mate. I have created a few rules for myself this season and I'm planning to follow it.
1) No Hazard for the entire season
2) DDG in goal for 38 weeks
3) No hits at all
4) Punty gutsy captain always
5) No early transfers for prices

Even if I don't do well, I'll be satisfied that I didn't make the mistakes which I made Earlier!

Thats why I am now on my WC and selling Salah (scared, YES) because gut feeling is telling me that there is a lot of points in Hazard, DSilva,Auba and most people have Salah, Aguero.

Personally wouldn't take anything from the comments section.

I don't see how years of practice, deep thought, endeavour to understand the game etc equates to "going with your gut". Your "gut" is still based on legitimate understanding of the game. That's why "go with your gut" is such horrendous advice particularly for newer players. You're not giving anything helpful to add to their decision making where they can actually learn something.

This is a really good post but I don't understand why people equate experience and skill with "gut instinct".

Nice post.
Being proactive is the best way but is so hard to do early on. You have to spot players coming into form (not necessarily scoring the points yet) just as they are about to play a good run of fixtures. Keeping an eye on the sleepers like eriksen Kane hazard silva(David) who are all proven assets that will come good when they are about to go on a big run also sets the top players apart from the rest.

Watching the full 90 mins is not easy, but at least watch MOTD and ideally the Sky match re-runs which are longer, plus the Premier World series which has some manageable stats for the next fixture. Deep stats are great but eye test for me all day long...

Have an upvote Sir! It's baaaaaad to always follow the herd!

First of all, I want to say that your message is of course great. It is one we should (and HAVE) been reminded about a lot lately. Trusting you gut, doing your own reasearch and making your own decision is the only way that will make the game fun - and make you better at it in the long term.

That being said, I think we have seen and heard this a lot lately. Again, I think it is fine to get it repeated once in a while and try to get a few more to “follow this strategy”.
BUT, most of the people that actually want to PLAY the game and want to make their own decisions, they already do this. All the (newly created and old) accounts just spewing A/B questions and RMT will always be there, as there will always be people not wanting to get really involved with the game. They are looking for quick solutions and results for their game.

What I’m trying to say is that most FPL managers on here of course will agree with you. But the game is getting bigger and that attracts a lot of people that aren’t really interested in the game. I applaud your efforts, just don’t think it’s will change anything writing a few hot topics or saying it on the ScoutCast.

Being proactive.

It reminded me about someone said "Better be a week late to get the right player than (not sure) getting wrong player early".

Good post and like you say, actually watching the games and seeing if people pass the eye test is so important. I do feel quite a few people here rely solely on stats and don't watch enough.

The community here is helpful and I tend to use it when I'm in a quandary. Eriksen vs Mane was the perfect example. I was set on Eriksen for pre-season until a couple of days before and did all the 2017/18 research on the members area and it was a no brainer. But then I actually thought about it and only wanted one of them for 6-8 weeks ideally and went with my guy. Saw that Mane had the better fixtures and Eriksen was more of a season keeper. I gambled on the more explosive option (thanks to comments from users here) and now I am flying.

You also need to have a good noise filter.
there is some good advice available from other posters but the answers you get will depend on how you ask questions.
All managers have flaws to some degree.
some managers suffer with confirmation bias, they ignore evidence that doesn't accord with their set views. they ignore the advice their given and keep asking the same question until a couple of people agree with them instead of thinking about what solution was suggested.

Others are guilty of anchoring - refusing to change their mind about a player when the facts have changed.ie King 2 years ago to King's playing position this season.
I was also guilty of putting too much weight on his pre-season form myself.

Mine in the past has been choosing players with good fixtures over someone in great form.
You've got to adapt to the circumstances each season

Recognize, too, that different managers have different philosophies of playing. Some take risks, some are conservative. Case in point - answers to the question as to who is best 5.0 MID. Conservative managers are most likely to say Kante. Risk takers might plump for Brooks, Hughes etc. You could be getting opinions from managers that approach the game very differently to you.

Excellent post. I agree with everything you say apart from calling it going with your gut. Well done!

I would call it doing the research, thinking for yourself and owning your own decisions, rather than following the herd, relying overmuch on the opinions of others, and then blaming others if it doesn't turn out well.

What do you think of the new title "Don't be a sheep- think for yourself!"?
Might "Making your own decisions" be even better?

just play the game how you want.
Don't see the point in playing how other people do if you're not enjoying it. I want to look at my team and know it's mine and not somebody else's. I don't want to copy Ronka's or Egerserdoff's teams I want to try and beat them 🙂
Personally i take hits and a few risks. Sometimes it pays off. Gut feeling is a big part of my playing. e.g. I've gone Ings for King not because he's cheaper but he's a good player who works hard and is hungry with a point to prove.

Two big scores from Kane and Auba and wheels will be turning. All Salah is the greatest and scary and other talks are because you can do well (for now) with Arnie, Wilson and so on (or so it seems). Two braces from Lukaku and no more Salah + 4.5 mio mid talk. Mane+Richa, Mkhi+Haz...Salah was great last season, he will be this season but he is 13mio. If he does not deliver like last year (or even if he does), a lot of funds locked. And it is ok for now since no hauls from Auba, Kane, Lukaku...this is the only thing that keeps this game almost "template" from the start (at least in comments). Everybody is Mane vs Salah (and "Mane can't keep it up?!"), "must have", "budget forwards are ok", 4-5-1...i am just waiting for two braces from THE forwards and storm to start.

Couldn't agree more. I used to use the comment section a lot more. Have found a lot of it very repetitive and binary recently, so have spent a lot more time in the members area - really helpful when you delve into it. Gives you confidence in your hunches too.

Main thing that's v easy to ignore (and I've been guilty of this before) is that there are a million ways to play this game. Money in defence, three big hitters up top, 5 at the back, loads of hits, chips in SGWs etc. A guy won it 2 years ago not picking a Liverpool player all year because he was an Evertonian! Last week this place was full of chat about death of the premium strikers and then Aguero scored a hattrick. There are about 25 players I want in my team currently, a team can be v different from yours and still great.

Agree with every point made. After buying membership for the first time this season, I Cannot recommend becoming a member highly enough, made the decision to choose between mitrovic, Wilson and ings far easier

This is the best post of the season so far. Couldn't have said it better.

Incidentally, it's what Jay Eggersdorf (world number one, nearly always top couple of thousand) also says. He has one of these Patreon.com accounts and he explicitly says on his YouTube video, he is not going to just tell subscribers who to pick - not only is that pointless for them since they will never beat one of his team and he may have a bad season himself anyway - but he will tell them what kinds of things and stats he looks at, the decision making process. There are too many people on this site - and in the world generally - looking to avoid all responsibility and looking for a scapegoat (but never giving credit to Scouts when they make a good call either).

Such a great post.

If you do the research and make a decision based on your own, reasoned logic, if it doesn't work out you only regret the outcome not the decision itself. Personally for me that means not following a 'gut' feeling, or taking a punt. I follow the Joe (Jonny) approach, form, fixtures, and ownership.

A) Agree with this post
or
B) Disagree with this post

First to 5 wins

Doesn't this post kind of promote quitting this site and not seeking advice from others and just playing on gut? Who hulked it? 😆

Completely agree with your sentiments.

Question: what indicators determine your "gut" instinct? Is there certain data you look for or something else?

Akin to a racehorse coming into form, how do we assuage a footballer doing the same for ff purposes?