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28 December 2018 6 comments
Hutch_James Hutch_James
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Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 19 REVIEW

On average, the Superbru crowd managed 4.99 correct predictions out of 10 in Round 19, and the average crowd picks smashed that with 5 out of 10 and again there wasn’t much movement on the overall standings.

GAMEWEEK 20 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW20:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Despite losing two games in a row, Man City remain at the top of the predicted goals chart for this weekend, and Sergio Aguero could be the ideal captaincy option after his return to fitness.

Tottenham, Man United, Liverpool, and Leicester are expected to score at least two goals each, and deciding on a captain will be difficult.

In defence, Leicester are predicted to keep a clean sheet at home to Cardiff, whilst Fulham, West Ham and Watford are offering the budget-friendly options.

Here are the picks we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Brighton 1 – 2 Everton
Fulham 1 – 1 Huddersfield
Leicester 2 – 0 Cardiff
Tottenham 3 – 1 Wolves
Watford 2 – 1 Newcastle
Liverpool 2 – 1 Arsenal
Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Chelsea
Burnley 1 – 2 West Ham
Southampton 1 – 3 Man City
Man United 2 – 1 Bournemouth

6 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. asquishypotato
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 21 days ago

    Lots of goals conceded potentially, think attacking full backs or set peice players are the ones to target for this week.

  2. HVT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 21 days ago

    Fantastic article, makes me think it’s wirth keeping City Mids for another week?

  3. Reedy
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 21 days ago

    Thanks once again! Should be a fun weekend 🙂

  4. Parm43
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 21 days ago

    What do you think the chances are of Martial starting? Considering taking a 4 point hit to swap him with Pogba.... Thoughts

  5. MTPockets
      7 years, 20 days ago

      Thanks

    • NorwichCityLad
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 19 days ago

      It’s time to upgrade Rashford > Barnes by the look of it