Scout Reports

The impact Higuain will have on Chelsea and Hazard

The arrival of Juventus striker Gonzalo Higuain (£9.5m) at Chelsea could prove a landmark moment in this Fantasy Premier League season.

Starting at the low end of the premium range among forwards there is the potential for the Argentinian international to widen the pool of viable Fantasy assets.

He is likely to have some impact on new club Chelsea, as well as Eden Hazard (£11.0m), who has divided opinion in the Fantasy community once again this season.

We have conducted research into Higuain’s recent history to assess whether he could be a Fantasy asset worth considering, while Fantasy Football Scout members can view the impact we expect him to have on Hazard.

The History

Higuain is certainly a player who has divided opinion among English football fans in recent years. The 31-year old is seen by many in the wider football world as renowned for spurned chances for Argentina at World Cups, or failing to show up in the latter stages of the Champions League.

In Italy, however, Higuain is practically revered as the ultimate goal-scoring machine, the striker to which all other forwards are compared. After all, in his five and a half years in Serie A, no player has scored more than him.

Only Lionel Messi (20.94%) has a better shot conversion rate than Higuain (19.96%) when comparing the six players to have scored 200 or more goals in the big five European leagues since the beginning of the 2006/07 season.

Since the Champions League arrived on the scene, 10 players have recorded 30+ goal seasons in La Liga, eight men have done it in the Premier League but only two have done so in Serie A. They are Luca Toni and Gonzalo Higuain, whose goals for Juventus proved pivotal in their title-winning campaigns of 2016/17 and 2017/18.

The campaign for which Higuain will be remembered most for in Italy, was in 2015/16 when he hit 36 goals for Maurizio Sarri’s Napoli side. That equalled a long-held Italian top-flight record, held by 87 years by Gino Rossetti, sparking his controversial transfer to rivals Juventus for the following season. Obviously, that was a move that upset Napoli supporters and Sarri himself, as it was Juve who had just pipped them to the Serie A title.

“I could have accepted it if he had gone to the Premier League. But not Juventus. Going there made his goodbye all the harder.” – Maurizio Sarri

However, Sarri claimed to have forgiven Higuain soon after his switch, the two of them sharing a hug before they faced each other for the first time in October 2016. Incidentally, that was a match in which the Argentinian scored the winning goal for Juventus.

“It’s a bit like when one of your sons makes you angry. You can rip into them for a few days, but at the end of the day he’s still your son.” – Maurizio Sarri

However, after two years as the chief goal threat at Juventus, Higuain, in his own words, was “kicked out” of the club to make room for Cristiano Ronaldo to come in from Real Madrid. The Argentinian landed in a loan move to AC Milan, where he initially started out well, scoring four goals in his first five Serie A matches of the 2018/19 campaign.

After that, it went downhill with just one strike in the next 12 appearances in all competitions. To make matters worse, his first league meeting with Juventus since his departure saw him miss a penalty, his replacement Ronaldo found the net, and Higuain was also sent off.

There have been suggestions in Italy that he has taken his ejection from Juventus too personally, while others will point to other factors at AC Milan for his recent downturn. Their most creative player Hakan Calhanoglu is not having his best season, while the team’s inverted wingers are more likely to come inside and shoot on their stronger foot than supply crosses for Higuain. Ultimately, it could be a combination of both.

Whatever the reason, despite his impressive past, there is no doubt Higuain does come to England on the back of a troubled period, almost certainly with a point to prove. That could go one of two ways, either he uses that frustration to hit the ground running the Premier League and solve Chelsea’s recent striker problems, or, like Alvaro Morata (£8.4m), he struggles under the pressure when things don’t go his way.

There will, of course, be hope for Sarri and Higuain, that a reunion between the pair, as well as with central midfielder Jorginho (£4.7m) could see them recreate the connection they had at Napoli three seasons ago.

“It was my best year as a player and (Jorginho is) a wonderful midfielder who contributed to that. He’s also a very good friend of mine so it’s been a real pleasure to once more be joining up with him, and I hope we can achieve great things together again.” – Gonzalo Higuain

The Comparisons

2018/19 unless stated Mins per goal Mins per shot Mins per shot in the box Mins per shot on target Goal conversion (%)
Higuain 213.33 22.9 38.8 71.1 10.7
Morata 188.6 26.9 33.7 58.9 14.3
Pedro 157.7 30.7 42.5 69 19.4
Hazard 176.2 30.4 46.4 70.5 17.2
Willian 504 35.2 58.2 88.9 7
Giroud 631 28.7 31.6 90.1 4.5
Higuain 15/16 -> 17/18 115.3 21 30.6 46.9 18.1

Comparing what Higuain has done in Serie A so far this season with his new Chelsea colleagues does actually raise some concerns initially. First of all, his minutes per goal of 213.33 is significantly worse off than Morata, who has found the net every 188.6 minutes between Gameweeks 1 and 23.

If Fantasy managers were put off by Morata’s accuracy, then they might not be so keen on the fact that Higuain’s minutes per shot on target is also worse than the Spaniard’s. At AC Milan he has recorded one every 71.1 minutes in Serie A, compared to Morata’s accurate effort every 58.9 minutes in the Premier League. Not surprisingly, the Argentinian’s goal conversion is also below that of his new colleague’s.

The only area where Higuain has outperformed Morata this season is minutes per shot, his one every 22.9 minutes better than 26.9. It should also be pointed out that, for attacking threat, Chelsea’s new centre-forward is largely ahead of Olivier Giroud (£7.7m). He has outperformed the Frenchman in every attacking area in the table above, with the exception of shots in the box, Giroud having one every 31.6, Higuain every 38.8.

Whether these statistics at AC Milan are a result of mitigating factors, as referenced above, or the fact that Higuain himself is declining as a player is hard to tell.

That’s why the real hope for Chelsea fans, or Fantasy managers looking to sign him, lies in how impressive Higuain was between 2015 and 2018. Across the 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18 campaigns he scored 76 times, averaging a goal every 115.3 minutes, which is better than any of his new colleagues can boast this season.

Furthermore, he had a shot every 21 minutes, one in the box every 30.6, and an accurate effort every 46.9. All of those numbers are considerably better than Morata, Giroud, Hazard and the rest of Chelsea’s current attacking options. Also, the only Chelsea forward player with a better goal conversion rate in 2018/19 compared to Higuain’s best three seasons is Pedro (£6.3m), with 19.4%.

The Prospects

The fact that Higuain arrives in England priced at £9.5m does present an exciting opportunity for Fantasy managers. If he does hit the ground running he could redefine the template, especially when it comes to the allocation of funds up front. With Harry Kane (£12.4m) injured and budget options abounding, premium strikers are largely out of fashion currently, with the possible exception of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.3m). Meanwhile, Roberto Firmino (£9.3m) is currently the only viable option in his position above the £7.5m mark. Furthermore, at £1.5m cheaper than Hazard he has the chance of being a real alternative to the Belgian when it comes to covering Chelsea in the future.

With Bournemouth (away) and Huddersfield (home) Higuain’s first two Premier League opponents, after a potential FA Cup debut against Sheffield Wednesday, the schedule is definitely favourable enough for Chelsea’s new signing to make a statement early on. The Gameweek 26 trip to Manchester City might be off-putting and it is still a possibility that Sarri’s men won’t have a fixture in Gameweek 27 when the League Cup final takes place.

For that reason, it might be in our best interests to wait and see with Higuain. After all, as we’ve seen above, there are one or two concerns about the player as he arrives at Stamford Bridge.

While we can be fairly confident that he’ll start games ahead of Giroud and Morata, there are still question marks over his form and state of mind following Ronaldo’s switch from Real Madrid to Juventus. As with most players who join FPL with no experience of the Premier League, it is worth monitoring how they settle in.

Of course, the fact that Higuain has worked with Sarri, and Jorginho before, with great success, might be enough justification for some Fantasy managers to dive in and sign the striker straight away.

However, to assume that Chelsea will turn into Sarri’s 2015/16 Napoli side over night would be somewhat naive. Even as Higuain arrives in England, Sarri and Jorginho are relative newcomers and having problems of their own settling into the Premier League. The central midfielder especially has been pinpointed as one of the reasons for Chelsea’s recent slump, as his lack of mobility makes him an easy target for opposition looking to apply pressure. If the Italian continues to be stifled in the middle of the pitch, it is hard to see him being able to help Higuain out without making improvements of his own.

Jorginho’s recent isolation might increase the onus on Higuain to drop a little deeper and involve himself in the build-up to Chelsea goals, although this is not an area he is especially confident in. As an advanced forward, his career has seen him make runs behind defenders finish moves off. 12 league assists since the beginning of the 2015/16 season offer some potential for sporadic assists, but it would be difficult to predict a creative streak in him on the same level as a Hazard or Firmino would.

Also, the fact that Higuain has shot more often than any of his new attacking team-mates but has a worse minute per accurate effort than Morata, Pedro, and Hazard suggests he might not be a friend of the Bonus Points System (BPS). At full-time, baseline bonus points are deducted for off-target shots, which could punish Higuain if he does not rediscover his ruthless streak from his best years.

Furthermore, frustration has boiled over on occasion for Higuain in his time at AC Milan, picking up four yellows and a red so far this season. If those feelings carry over to his Chelsea loan spell, and things don’t necessarily go his way either, then his discipline could also hamper his bonus potential.

Higuain’s impact on Hazard

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1,360 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Alan The Llama
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Barkley's been immense. Might get him again.

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      No he hasn't. He's been one of our worst players...

    2. puhd
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      He’s been shait

  2. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    If we would have DGW25, Hart Shaw/Digne to Button Luiz sounds good? Or rather City def over Luiz?

    1. BOATIES FC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      No point losing digne if he's getting two games in the DGW

      1. Atimis
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        So maybe Shaw

  3. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Imagine doing such a terrible job that the club decide it's better to reappoint the predecessor who was sacked two months earlier. Total humiliation for Henry.

    1. Rihanovic
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      What happened???

      1. It’s gonna Ben Mee
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        He’s suspended by the club until further notice. Really weird.

        1. Rihanovic
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Shame.

    2. puhd
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Got sacked. Fabregas must be feeling proper bad!

      1. Rihanovic
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Sacked???

  4. Denis Tueart on the wing
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Is dgw25 for Chelsea? I'm completely out of touch

  5. Sergio Giorgini
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Didn't Guardiola say referring to the DGW25 in an interview? Like as if he's had some contact about it with the PL?

    1. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Did he literally say 'DGW25'?

      1. Mysterion
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Yes he then proceeded to wish all potential TC'ers the best of luck with this expression on his face https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dtf0ohTXgAETAb0?format=jpg&name=large

    2. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      He said they could move the Everton game between the Chelsea and Arsenal game. He said the prem league will let them know.

      1. Sergio Giorgini
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Exactly, might be jumping all over it a bit but it kind of indicated to me he'd heard something about it.

      2. Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Would that mean DGW25? Havent checked

        1. Richd
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          If that happened yes

          But for there to be a chance we need city and Everton cup games at the weekend to avoid a replay according to Ben Crellin. Otherwise there won’t be space for that fixture as a premier league game.

    3. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      All managers know that its only Mr Guardiola who can talk about fixtures, who can talk about referees and nothing happens. This is fact.

      1. Sergio Giorgini
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        True, just worth considering his comments that's all. I'm saying this with a view to TC Hazard

        1. Richd
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Well hazard and Chelsea is a different kettle of fish.

          I suppose it shows the fixture slot is possible but that will mean Chelsea have to win tonight and as I write that it’s 2-2 on aggregate. Then Chelsea and Brighton to avoid any cup relays.

      2. Mysterion
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Pipe down Rafa

    4. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Potentially but other obstacles may be in the way (i.e a draw at Emirates tomorrow night)

      1. Richd
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Not true.

  6. mixology
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    How did the Ben Davies injury look? Cheers

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Groin-ish.

      Dropped to the ground, he knew he was done.

    2. Denis Tueart on the wing
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      doesn't go off for nothing, holding groin the hammy from what I saw!

      1. Denis Tueart on the wing
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        .. then hammy

    3. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      He didn’t even attempt to keep playing, so I guess he’s out for a little while

    4. mixology
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks everyone

  7. FPL Forward Thinker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    DGW 25 thought:

    If Arsenal and Manchester United draw and go to a replay it will be played WEDNESDAY 6 FEB

    Both city and united play league matches Sunday 3 feb so won’t play tue 5 Feb
    - City and united won’t both play in Manchester on the same night (tue rules out and wed ruled out for city if united v Arsenal play)

    1. FPL Forward Thinker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Hopefully someone can translate that into better sentences lol

      1. Sergio Giorgini
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Just what I was thinking - what does this mean for FPL

        1. FPL Forward Thinker
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Gunners / United draw tomorrow rules out City v Everton in GW25 and would need played sometime else

    2. tambourineman
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      It's Everton at home to Man City

      1. FPL Forward Thinker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Oh (red face)

    3. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Everton is in Liverpool.

      1. FPL Forward Thinker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Soz

        1. Richd
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Haha it’s ok.

          I had to double check 😉

          Everton at home that is. Not the geography

          1. FPL Forward Thinker
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            EVE (H) 3 - 1 Already happened !

  8. fenixri
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    How does Hazard play?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Well. Scored a goal.

    2. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Runs with his feet, fends off players with his fat arse. Want to know more?

      1. Denis Tueart on the wing
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        doesn't dive either

    3. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      One foot in front of the other babe

  9. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    OMG Llorente

  10. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    FERNANDOOO

    Rose assist

  11. Syd.
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Llorente scored

    WTF

    I will say it again

    WTF

  12. Ógie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Llorente 2 goals from 2 games now.

  13. Cookie Kid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    GOALLORENTE

  14. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    If spurs win can they get a dgw25?

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      They can.

    2. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Technically.

      Although Ben Crellin thinks as they’d play Burnley it’s harder to get it into GW25 due to travel

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Hmm interesting thanks. Son and Rose would be good options with a decent gw26

  15. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Le Donk misses golden chance

  16. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Lolrente essential? Knows how to get the ball between the sticks.

  17. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Llorente scores in the right net this time.

  18. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    I regret buying Llorente last week, I don’t regret rage selling his sorry arse immediately after the last game.

  19. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Away goals dont count for this one, right?

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Only if it goes to Extra Time.

      1. Richd
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        It doesn’t go to ET

        1. Rainer
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Exactly 🙂

        2. Kiwivillan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          You right. Straight to pens then?

          1. Richd
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Yeah straight to pens. No away goals at all.

          2. Epic Fail
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            They measure peen size. Largest average goes through.

            1. Fergus1107
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              Showers beat growers.

            2. Majestic Chanka
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              Chelsea through then.

              Spurs have a Winkle bringing the average down

            3. Mysterion
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              Seems a fair tiebreaker this is a semi after all

      2. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Extra time then pens no? No away goal rule?

    2. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Correct

    3. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Correct. It’s scraped for the first time. Straight to pens.

      1. Syd.
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Is it not different in the Semis?

        1. Richd
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          It’s 100% no away goals and straight to penalties. This the first year it’s been like this.

          1. Syd.
            • 14 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Are you sure 😉

            1. Richd
              • 11 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              No

  20. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Sarri yellow

  21. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Sarri YC -3 BPS

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      LOL

  22. Goat
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Llorente same price as Barnes. Interesting

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      'interesting'

    2. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Would you rather eat a dog poo or a horse poo

  23. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Rose struggling now. KWP wagon incoming?

    1. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Wrong side no?

      1. Piggs Boson
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Can play both sides.

  24. Syd.
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    A few leg breakers

  25. Fergus1107
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Kante and Hazard do sod all for me in the league....

  26. gonzalocampos
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    If they tie, Spurs wins because the goal difference? or that does not apply in this cup?

    1. gonzalocampos
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Spurs win because they scored away?

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Straight to pen if tied overall at FT.

      1. gonzalocampos
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        thx

    3. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Penalties

    4. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Doesn't apply.

    5. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      @DetectiveFlapJack

  27. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Another dgw questioner: can city and Chelsea (c'mon, we know it'll be Chelsea) play their dgws in different gameweeks to one another?

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    2. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    3. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      What do you think is the answer?

      1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Who knows with TV licensing or some sense of parity in terms of stacking games before the final. I assume there's some rule that won't make sense, but looks like there isn't. Thanks all.

  28. DEEGTADKMC
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Emerson to take Alonso's spot?

    1. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      No

    2. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Think he already has it after tonight.

    3. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Confirmed

    4. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      hows he looked 2night

    5. Majestic Chanka
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      He’ll take Alonso’s spot on the bench, yeah

  29. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Haha Kante was waiting in the 6yard box

  30. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    If selling Alonso would you rather get TAA, Bednarek or someone else?

    Current defence of Robertson _____ Doherty Digne AWB.

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      If you dont plan on getting Mane or Firmino then TAA