Scout Reports

The impact Higuain will have on Chelsea and Hazard

The arrival of Juventus striker Gonzalo Higuain (£9.5m) at Chelsea could prove a landmark moment in this Fantasy Premier League season.

Starting at the low end of the premium range among forwards there is the potential for the Argentinian international to widen the pool of viable Fantasy assets.

He is likely to have some impact on new club Chelsea, as well as Eden Hazard (£11.0m), who has divided opinion in the Fantasy community once again this season.

We have conducted research into Higuain’s recent history to assess whether he could be a Fantasy asset worth considering, while Fantasy Football Scout members can view the impact we expect him to have on Hazard.

The History

Higuain is certainly a player who has divided opinion among English football fans in recent years. The 31-year old is seen by many in the wider football world as renowned for spurned chances for Argentina at World Cups, or failing to show up in the latter stages of the Champions League.

In Italy, however, Higuain is practically revered as the ultimate goal-scoring machine, the striker to which all other forwards are compared. After all, in his five and a half years in Serie A, no player has scored more than him.

Only Lionel Messi (20.94%) has a better shot conversion rate than Higuain (19.96%) when comparing the six players to have scored 200 or more goals in the big five European leagues since the beginning of the 2006/07 season.

Since the Champions League arrived on the scene, 10 players have recorded 30+ goal seasons in La Liga, eight men have done it in the Premier League but only two have done so in Serie A. They are Luca Toni and Gonzalo Higuain, whose goals for Juventus proved pivotal in their title-winning campaigns of 2016/17 and 2017/18.

The campaign for which Higuain will be remembered most for in Italy, was in 2015/16 when he hit 36 goals for Maurizio Sarri’s Napoli side. That equalled a long-held Italian top-flight record, held by 87 years by Gino Rossetti, sparking his controversial transfer to rivals Juventus for the following season. Obviously, that was a move that upset Napoli supporters and Sarri himself, as it was Juve who had just pipped them to the Serie A title.

“I could have accepted it if he had gone to the Premier League. But not Juventus. Going there made his goodbye all the harder.” – Maurizio Sarri

However, Sarri claimed to have forgiven Higuain soon after his switch, the two of them sharing a hug before they faced each other for the first time in October 2016. Incidentally, that was a match in which the Argentinian scored the winning goal for Juventus.

“It’s a bit like when one of your sons makes you angry. You can rip into them for a few days, but at the end of the day he’s still your son.” – Maurizio Sarri

However, after two years as the chief goal threat at Juventus, Higuain, in his own words, was “kicked out” of the club to make room for Cristiano Ronaldo to come in from Real Madrid. The Argentinian landed in a loan move to AC Milan, where he initially started out well, scoring four goals in his first five Serie A matches of the 2018/19 campaign.

After that, it went downhill with just one strike in the next 12 appearances in all competitions. To make matters worse, his first league meeting with Juventus since his departure saw him miss a penalty, his replacement Ronaldo found the net, and Higuain was also sent off.

There have been suggestions in Italy that he has taken his ejection from Juventus too personally, while others will point to other factors at AC Milan for his recent downturn. Their most creative player Hakan Calhanoglu is not having his best season, while the team’s inverted wingers are more likely to come inside and shoot on their stronger foot than supply crosses for Higuain. Ultimately, it could be a combination of both.

Whatever the reason, despite his impressive past, there is no doubt Higuain does come to England on the back of a troubled period, almost certainly with a point to prove. That could go one of two ways, either he uses that frustration to hit the ground running the Premier League and solve Chelsea’s recent striker problems, or, like Alvaro Morata (£8.4m), he struggles under the pressure when things don’t go his way.

There will, of course, be hope for Sarri and Higuain, that a reunion between the pair, as well as with central midfielder Jorginho (£4.7m) could see them recreate the connection they had at Napoli three seasons ago.

“It was my best year as a player and (Jorginho is) a wonderful midfielder who contributed to that. He’s also a very good friend of mine so it’s been a real pleasure to once more be joining up with him, and I hope we can achieve great things together again.” – Gonzalo Higuain

The Comparisons

2018/19 unless stated Mins per goal Mins per shot Mins per shot in the box Mins per shot on target Goal conversion (%)
Higuain 213.33 22.9 38.8 71.1 10.7
Morata 188.6 26.9 33.7 58.9 14.3
Pedro 157.7 30.7 42.5 69 19.4
Hazard 176.2 30.4 46.4 70.5 17.2
Willian 504 35.2 58.2 88.9 7
Giroud 631 28.7 31.6 90.1 4.5
Higuain 15/16 -> 17/18 115.3 21 30.6 46.9 18.1

Comparing what Higuain has done in Serie A so far this season with his new Chelsea colleagues does actually raise some concerns initially. First of all, his minutes per goal of 213.33 is significantly worse off than Morata, who has found the net every 188.6 minutes between Gameweeks 1 and 23.

If Fantasy managers were put off by Morata’s accuracy, then they might not be so keen on the fact that Higuain’s minutes per shot on target is also worse than the Spaniard’s. At AC Milan he has recorded one every 71.1 minutes in Serie A, compared to Morata’s accurate effort every 58.9 minutes in the Premier League. Not surprisingly, the Argentinian’s goal conversion is also below that of his new colleague’s.

The only area where Higuain has outperformed Morata this season is minutes per shot, his one every 22.9 minutes better than 26.9. It should also be pointed out that, for attacking threat, Chelsea’s new centre-forward is largely ahead of Olivier Giroud (£7.7m). He has outperformed the Frenchman in every attacking area in the table above, with the exception of shots in the box, Giroud having one every 31.6, Higuain every 38.8.

Whether these statistics at AC Milan are a result of mitigating factors, as referenced above, or the fact that Higuain himself is declining as a player is hard to tell.

That’s why the real hope for Chelsea fans, or Fantasy managers looking to sign him, lies in how impressive Higuain was between 2015 and 2018. Across the 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18 campaigns he scored 76 times, averaging a goal every 115.3 minutes, which is better than any of his new colleagues can boast this season.

Furthermore, he had a shot every 21 minutes, one in the box every 30.6, and an accurate effort every 46.9. All of those numbers are considerably better than Morata, Giroud, Hazard and the rest of Chelsea’s current attacking options. Also, the only Chelsea forward player with a better goal conversion rate in 2018/19 compared to Higuain’s best three seasons is Pedro (£6.3m), with 19.4%.

The Prospects

The fact that Higuain arrives in England priced at £9.5m does present an exciting opportunity for Fantasy managers. If he does hit the ground running he could redefine the template, especially when it comes to the allocation of funds up front. With Harry Kane (£12.4m) injured and budget options abounding, premium strikers are largely out of fashion currently, with the possible exception of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.3m). Meanwhile, Roberto Firmino (£9.3m) is currently the only viable option in his position above the £7.5m mark. Furthermore, at £1.5m cheaper than Hazard he has the chance of being a real alternative to the Belgian when it comes to covering Chelsea in the future.

With Bournemouth (away) and Huddersfield (home) Higuain’s first two Premier League opponents, after a potential FA Cup debut against Sheffield Wednesday, the schedule is definitely favourable enough for Chelsea’s new signing to make a statement early on. The Gameweek 26 trip to Manchester City might be off-putting and it is still a possibility that Sarri’s men won’t have a fixture in Gameweek 27 when the League Cup final takes place.

For that reason, it might be in our best interests to wait and see with Higuain. After all, as we’ve seen above, there are one or two concerns about the player as he arrives at Stamford Bridge.

While we can be fairly confident that he’ll start games ahead of Giroud and Morata, there are still question marks over his form and state of mind following Ronaldo’s switch from Real Madrid to Juventus. As with most players who join FPL with no experience of the Premier League, it is worth monitoring how they settle in.

Of course, the fact that Higuain has worked with Sarri, and Jorginho before, with great success, might be enough justification for some Fantasy managers to dive in and sign the striker straight away.

However, to assume that Chelsea will turn into Sarri’s 2015/16 Napoli side over night would be somewhat naive. Even as Higuain arrives in England, Sarri and Jorginho are relative newcomers and having problems of their own settling into the Premier League. The central midfielder especially has been pinpointed as one of the reasons for Chelsea’s recent slump, as his lack of mobility makes him an easy target for opposition looking to apply pressure. If the Italian continues to be stifled in the middle of the pitch, it is hard to see him being able to help Higuain out without making improvements of his own.

Jorginho’s recent isolation might increase the onus on Higuain to drop a little deeper and involve himself in the build-up to Chelsea goals, although this is not an area he is especially confident in. As an advanced forward, his career has seen him make runs behind defenders finish moves off. 12 league assists since the beginning of the 2015/16 season offer some potential for sporadic assists, but it would be difficult to predict a creative streak in him on the same level as a Hazard or Firmino would.

Also, the fact that Higuain has shot more often than any of his new attacking team-mates but has a worse minute per accurate effort than Morata, Pedro, and Hazard suggests he might not be a friend of the Bonus Points System (BPS). At full-time, baseline bonus points are deducted for off-target shots, which could punish Higuain if he does not rediscover his ruthless streak from his best years.

Furthermore, frustration has boiled over on occasion for Higuain in his time at AC Milan, picking up four yellows and a red so far this season. If those feelings carry over to his Chelsea loan spell, and things don’t necessarily go his way either, then his discipline could also hamper his bonus potential.

Higuain’s impact on Hazard

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1,360 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    leicester fixtures are a dream for gw27, whats the situation with their mid ? has maddison been dropped ? who s that harvey barnes ? either one of them could be the perfect replacement for richa who blanks this gw. thanks 🙂

    1. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Jota. Maddison has done nothing much

    2. Bragazeti
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Barnes was initially out on loan, and having scored on his debut he should be getting decent gane

      1. Bragazeti
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        *Decent game time. Currently on my watchlist

    3. Amey
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Don't know about the midfielder.
      But Digne to Periera in gw27 Transfer is no-brainer for me.

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        This is my plan

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          😉

    4. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      We know Leicester will have no DGW's but they have beautiful fixtures and I am definitely considering Perriera, Vardy and either Maddison or Barnes. Weeks 27 to 35 are a chance to make points over players who won't consider Leicester due to no DGW's

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Vardy has a potential to be a devastating Differential.
        But he has been awful this season when I had him for his last 'easy' set of fixtures.

        1. Eze Really?
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Outside of Salah, Robbo, Son everyone has had poor periods.
          As you say, no guarantees but Vardy could be great.

          1. Amey
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Yep.

  2. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    If GW25 is a DGW, good time to play FT chip?

    Will there be a better time?

    1. Lazaretti
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Some blank GW maybe better for FH.

    2. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      no

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'd definitely wait for later blank/dgw

      However with the possibility of Chelsea having Brighton and Huddersfield at home tc on hazard or higuain is not out of the question .

    4. Amey
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      No imo.
      FH can be better utilised in bgw31 or dgw32.
      But if Chelsea gets dgw25 I'm most probably going to TC Hazard.

    5. Whats the Huth
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      How soon would we know if it’s a double

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Near the Deadline of gw24 as per a video I saw on FPL scout page.

      2. danishdynamite
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        By monday, I'd have thought

        The FA are clearly already talking to the clubs concerned, so given the need for rearranging policiing / travel arrangements, I suspect that they'd say somethign immediately after the FA Cup games this weekend to maximise the time fans have to prepare

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          This would be great 😮

        2. Eze Really?
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          The police to prepare is key too.

    6. danishdynamite
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I assume you mean FH chip?

      I think the answer depends upon who gets the DGW. If both Chelsea and City have a DGW, and you have no players from either, then bringing in 6 big hitters could work well

      There aren't any other odd-ball games that week, where you'd want to be shot of say Utd / Liverpool so assuming you already have a one or two from both, so I can't see the benefit of FH

      TC, OTOH, that's what looks appealling right now

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Chances of 4 players (2 ManU and 2 pool) playing against each other in GW27.
        All one needs is a couple of injuries in your squad and you cannot possibly play FH chip.

        1. danishdynamite
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Leaving aside for one mo that this conversation is about GW25 ..........

          "All one needs is a couple of injuries in your squad and you cannot possibly play FH chip." : What are you talking about?

          1. Eze Really?
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Sorry bud. I was talking about GW27.

  3. Eze Really?
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    The free hit chip.
    I personally think it has relatively little value.
    It is quite easy to manipulate 11 players playing in a limited GW and generally are poor gameweeks anyway with premium players usually not playing. keeping the WC is more important IMO.
    After a free hit your team reverts back to normal and you still have to move out injured players or those with poor form.
    Double GWs are also not that productive with a lot of rotation. I have seen in the past people changing players for a DGW player only to find out their initial player performed better. I also see the manipulation of bench boost to get 15 DGW players yet to get 15 players who are likely to score is sacrificing other players who will outperform.
    To be quite honest, I would like all the chips outside of WC taken from the game.

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Morning 🙂
      I was thinking about using FH in BGW 31.
      But if Chelsea get a dgw25 I am looking for TC Hazard.
      By doing that I thinking about preparing my team for BGW's 31 & 33 with subsequent Free transfers & use FH in dgw32 to make it more effective.

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        GW25 the key but I am prepared to show my bxm in Wollies if there is a DGW in GW25

    2. Whats the Huth
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      You don’t have to remove SGW players for a DGW player.
      A mixture of the two is good.
      Plus you can put out the weakest none playing bench possible and pump all your money to your starting 11

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Sure there are advantages but I think it is exaggerated. An extra 12pts average (last year) for free hit chip should not impact in a whole bunch of weeks. My ML rivals gradually lost ground to me in the last 10 weeks by "engineering" teams relating to chips. To make matters worse for them the DGW's and FH's were often epic fails.

      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Agreed, chips are overrated. The Free Hit is probably the best of the 3, but as you mentioned it is very limited. You get your team back after a week and have to face injuries and suspensions yet again.

      Many managers fall into the trap of thinking about big gains and green arrows during the DGWs but completely ignore the negative effect on the team in previous GWs.

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        This big time.

    3. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      It allows to add dross players just for 1-week while keeping your main assets who are going to blank instead of using FTs to get them and then use FTs to get rid later on plus sticking with them for longer than required. We can forget about planning for BGW where FH is supposed to be used and concentrate more on GWs around them.

      Thats the only advantage I feel it has...

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Agree entirely. I am not saying they are no good at all but definitely overrated.

    4. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      It’s not the number of points you get in a week, its the number of points you get more than the average (for your rank). You can get 20 extra points quite easily in a GW irrespective of the quality of players available.

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Of course it is.
        Let us say there are 3 games in a GW.
        Liverpool and Leicester have a good chance of being there unless there is a game they play against a team who progresses through the FA cup.
        I will naturally have 3 pool and 2 Leicester anyway.
        Chances are I will have another 3 players anyway.
        If i don't use a FH chip my opponents could have a 3 player advantage and probably dross.
        This thing about not needing a bench with a FH chip is not so accurate. Anyway my TV is 2.5mil over average and I would rather have that than no bench on a FH

        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          I am not sure why so many on here only look at the specific gameweek swing or benefit of a FH, when there are other considerations ...

          When a blank has dross teams (as in 31 last year) and a bad selection choice, using the FH allows you to plan your actual team in the weeks before and after the blank by ignoring the blank, which means your transfers are for premium players for the upcoming fixtures.

          Those that don't use the FH are gradually bringing in some of the dross (Walcott etc last time round) a few gameweeks in advance, and are then stuck with them, forced to take hits to remove them or play an WC to swap them all out.

          There is a bigger picture the chips than normally expressed on here 🙂

      2. danishdynamite
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Correct.

        Plus, the chips aren't just for those who read FFScout

      3. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        My free hit chip last year I was 8 points below average 10k. Considering how many used it then I don't consider it a train smash.

        1. mik-hail-tal
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          They are not overrated when we talk about their potential, which is huge if you use them correctly imho. They are overrated in a way that people think it's gonna be a guarantee of an easy green arrow.

          1. Eze Really?
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Sooooooooooooo This

    5. Runaway
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      My best GR (12K) last year was in FH35 and I jumped from 13K to 6K in OR
      My best GR (4K) the year before was BB37 and it rocketed me from 30K to 10K in OR
      So I believe that both FH and BB chips can be very very useful especially the FH one if you use it in a sandwiched blank/double week like DGW32 this year.
      Having said that, I would not disagree if all chips are removed from the game, it was more fun before chips.

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I am not questioning that.
        But if used in another area would you not have improved also.
        On top of this you were using when a lot of others were too. To get such a ranking boost suggests you improved not just down to the FH chip.

        1. Runaway
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          For FH, it is not really ideal to use in another week. Of course it may improve the ranking any given GW but the rationale behind the chip is navigating blank-double-blank (vice versa) issues without making hockey cokeys between same players and saving from hits. The real value is not destroying your team for a specific blank/double week not only the individual GW point or ranking.

          For BB, using it in a DGW is just increasing possibility. I got around 25 points in average from my BB chips in last 3 years. It will not be different this year probably. If I used it in GW19 this year I would get 27 but I would never have known that without the hindsight so I would have never played that week. It is apparent when you play it in a DGW after WC that you will have 7-8 players on bench rather than 2-3.

          Before the chips, many players were still playing their WC before the big DGW so nothing changed there as well. My point is people are not playing their WC at the very end of the season only for using their chips more efficiently, it was like that already.

      2. Pluge
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I would assume that there is a huge chance that you gain OR when you use a chip, because sure, other people may be using their chips at the same time, but there are always going to be other managers who have used theirs already or don't play a chip that week.

    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Dear FFS community, are there any obvious weaknesses in that side?

    0.3m itb, 0FT.

    Patricio
    Doherty Jonny Shaw Digne
    Salah(c) Hazard Sane Pogba
    Firmino Rashford

    Fabiański AWB Rondon Hojbjerg

    I was thinking maybe Rondon>Llorente for a hit and play him ahead of Jonny but unsure about the Tottenham striker's minutes and potential. Any thoughts will be very much appreciated 🙂

    1. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Triple Wolves defence is a weakness for mine. I wouldn't be getting Llorente in for a hit.

      Personally I would start AWB over Jonny.

        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        That's a good shout, actually - wouldn't bet against a Palace CS at St. Mary's.

        Triple Wolves at the back are very uninspiring but at least the fixtures are on their side, I guess.

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      No need to take hit IMO.

    3. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      My team
      Same Robbo Doherty Same
      Same Same Same Same
      Jimi Same
      Same Same Ings Lamela
      We might differ by 4 points average per week so no is the answer.

  4. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    The main advantage of fh is to avoid planning.weeks in advance for a forthcoming blank or dgw. Loads of people used it for the week when Salah scored 4 goals last season so in effect as long as you had Salah the effect of the fh were probably smaller than expected. I personally like it especially with so many bw and dgw.in the game . But just because you use fh or tc or BB doesn't mean your team will do well. 2 seasons ago I scored 175 points in my tc week,last year I think I barely got 80 points with BB, my tc didn't even get an assist I think. You must be old school haha 🙂 ps been playing since 2006 so am a bit old school myself 😉

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      D oh ! Reply fail for kookloppers !!!

    2. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      All sooooooooo true. of course they are better than not having them. The point you make with Salah is so true. Most of us have the prime targets in our teams already. No DGW for Salah but he will probably be in my side to season end. FH or no FH

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      That game week those that used FH in that BGW on average scored about 20 points more, similar to GW35 blank FH

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        I used GW8 and more through luck than judgement scored 24 points more than my original side. I had particularly bad fixtures. (41 points potential) Went for good fixtures. Kane failed which was a big reason I used it. I got 65 points abd my original side 41 (the same as the potential on FF Fix) Not many will make up a 24 point deficit.

        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          but you did not use any transfers for your original side, and a -4 for two transfers would have swung things differently

  5. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Morning dzzz, being a patient Alonso owner has been tough and now he is likely dropped just when i thought he is a good differential. Thoughts here? got 1ft and 2.9m

    Fabianski -- Button
    Alonso Digne Doherty --- Holebas Schindler
    Pogba Salah Hazard Anderson Rich
    Rashford Jimenez -- Kamara

    A: Alonso >> Kola, then Rich + Kamara >> Puncheon + Auba in gw26
    B: Anderson >> Sane/Mane/Eriksen and keep Alonso for now. if he is def dropped, then do Alonso/Anderson >> Bedranek/Mane to go for a power mid but means it becomes very diff to get Auba

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A looks good but save FT this week to assess

  6. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Emerson performed like we expect Alonso to, think former will be in the team going forward.

    Save until the weekend games are played.

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Reply fail to above 😉