Fixtures

Navigating updated Blank and Double FPL Gameweeks schedule

Fantasy Premier League managers need to stay on top of the schedule changes that have occurred since Gameweek 23.

In the last nine days, we’ve had important matches in the League Cup and FA Cup, which have shifted the landscape of future Gameweeks.

In this article, we will assess the impact on when Blank and Double Gameweeks will occur, as well as an update on strategy for chip deployment.

Blank Gameweek 27

Chelsea and Manchester City progressed to the Carabao Cup final, which has resulted in two postponements in Gameweek 27:

  • Chelsea vs Brighton
  • Everton vs Manchester City

None of these teams will have a fixture in Gameweek 27.

Double Gameweek 25

On Sunday, Everton announced that their postponed fixture against Manchester City had been rescheduled to Wednesday, February 6th.

This means that both Manchester City and Everton will have a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 25. Pep Guardiola’s men will host Arsenal on Sunday, February 3rd before travelling to Everton three days later. Everton will host Wolves on Saturday, February 2nd before welcoming Manchester City to Goodison Park.

Chelsea vs Brighton is yet to be rescheduled. Both clubs’ progress in the FA Cup and the Blues’ progress in the Europa League will determine when that fixture can be played.

If Chelsea reach the semi-finals of both competitions then they’ll get three Blank fixtures with only two free midweeks (in Gameweeks 32 and 35) to reschedule them to.

Blank Gameweek 31

The FA Cup had a very large effect on FPL over the weekend as more fixtures in Gameweek 31 were either confirmed or further jeopardised.

The fourth round of the competition saw Premier League teams not faring particularly well.

In the five ties that featured top-flight sides going up against lower league opposition, Chelsea were the only ‘giant’ who managed to win.

Wolves and Brighton were taken to replays whilst West Ham and Everton suffered shock defeats away at Wimbledon and Millwall respectively.

Gameweek 31 fixtures will be postponed (and moved to a different Gameweek) if either side reaches the FA Cup quarter-finals.

The FA Cup fifth round draw helps us calculate the chances of that happening for each club.

  • Bristol City v Shrewsbury/Wolves
  • AFC Wimbledon v Millwall
  • Doncaster v Crystal Palace
  • Middlesbrough/Newport v Manchester City
  • Chelsea v Manchester United
  • Swansea v Barnet/Brentford
  • Portsmouth/QPR v Watford
  • Brighton/West Brom v Derby

With those fixtures in mind, here are the Blank percentages and permutations in Gameweek 31, calculated using SkyBet’s odds for teams to reach the FA Cup quarter-finals.

We could get as many as six Blank fixtures in Gameweek 31 if Manchester United lose to Chelsea and the other six Premier League sides remaining in the FA Cup all progress to the quarter-finals.

And there’ll be at least one Blank fixture because either Manchester United or Chelsea will reach the quarter-finals.

There won’t be any fifth round replays in the FA Cup this season, so the Gameweek 31 Blanks will all be decided a week before the Gameweek 27 deadline.

Blank Gameweek 33

Gameweek 33 fixtures will be postponed (and almost certainly moved to a different Gameweek) if either side reaches the FA Cup semi-finals.

Here are the Blank percentages for the fixtures in Gameweek 33, calculated using SkyBet’s odds for teams to reach the FA Cup semi-finals.

We could get a maximum of four Blanks in Gameweek 33 if four Premier League teams reach the FA Cup semi-finals (as long as two of the semi-finalists aren’t Manchester United and Wolves).

And there obviously won’t any Blanks at all in Gameweek 33 if no Premier League sides reach the FA Cup semi-finals.

We will find out which teams will have a Blank in Gameweek 33 shortly after the Gameweek 31 deadline.

The quarter-final draw will provide more clarity on the Blanks in Gameweek 33. This will take place four or five days before the Gameweek 27 deadline.

Double Gameweeks

As I’ve mentioned in my previous articles, most of the Blank fixtures will be rescheduled to the midweeks in Gameweeks 32 and 35.

Gameweek 32 is more likely to receive the Gameweek 31 Blanks and Gameweek 35 is more likely to receive the Gameweek 33 Blanks.

This spreadsheet shows all of the fixtures in the Blank and Double Gameweeks.

Chelsea or Brighton could get a total of three Blank fixtures if either side reaches the FA Cup semi-finals.

If this happens, two of their Blanks will be moved to Gameweeks 32 and 35 and a third would be moved to a Champions League midweek (most likely in either Gameweek 36 or 37), although that wouldn’t be possible if Chelsea reach the Europa League semi-finals.

How does this affect my FPL team?

It makes sense to use your Free Transfers before Gameweek 27 (and maybe even one or two hits) to prepare for the upcoming Double and Blank Gameweeks caused by League Cup final.

Manchester City and Everton will play twice in Gameweek 25 and Man City, Everton, Chelsea and Brighton won’t have a fixture in Gameweek 27.

In my previous article, I suggested that a sensible strategy for FPL managers who have all their chips (including Wildcard) remaining would involve playing their Triple Captain chip in a Double Gameweek outside of Gameweeks 32 and 35.

Triple Captaining a Man City player in a Double Gameweek is a risky move as it’s hard to predict which of their attackers will start both fixtures.

Some analysis was recently conducted into the most likely starters, so make sure you read that content before the Gameweek 24 deadline.

It would make sense to Triple Captain one of these players if you believe that they’re likely to score more against Arsenal (home) and Everton (away), with the threat of rotation, than a player with a favourable Single Gameweek fixture, like Mohamed Salah (£13.6m) at home to Huddersfield in Gameweek 36.

Chelsea will almost certainly get two fixtures in a Gameweek outside of Gameweeks 32 and 35 if they reach the FA Cup semi-finals.

Triple Captaining Eden Hazard (£11.0m) in a Double Gameweek would probably be a safer option than Triple Captaining a Manchester City attacker, but according to the odds, there’s only a 40% chance that Chelsea will reach the FA Cup semi-finals.

If you’ve already played either your Wildcard, Bench Boost or Free Hit chip, you’ll find it easier to come up with a chip strategy that involves playing your Triple Captain chip in either Double Gameweek 32 or 35.

If possible, you should aim to save a free transfer in Gameweek 26 because the Gameweek 31 Blanks will be confirmed in the gap between Gameweeks 26 and 27.

Once the Gameweek 31 Blanks have been confirmed, you should commit to a strategy and come up with a transfer plan.

Either save your chips for the Blank and Double Gameweeks after Gameweek 31 and focus on preparing for the Blanks in Gameweek 31, as well as possibly Gameweek 33, using free transfers.

Or, if you have a lot of players who will Blank in Gameweek 31, you could choose to play your Free Hit chip in Gameweek 31 and focus on bringing in players from teams who will Blank in Gameweek 31 and potentially play twice in Gameweek 32. This strategy would make more sense if you’ve already played your Wildcard.

It’s important to see the bigger picture though. It may not be wise to use all your transfers between now and Gameweek 31 to prepare for an upcoming Blank or Double Gameweek.

For example, Son Heung-min has returned from Asian Cup duty and offers great value for money at £8.6 with Spurs’ enticing run of fixtures.

If you decide to prepare for Gameweek 31 using your free transfers, it makes sense to come up with a transfer plan that involves selling players who’ll Blank in Gameweek 31 when their fixtures get tough and also involves bringing in players who’ll play in Gameweek 31 when their fixtures become easier.

A popular transfer in Gameweek 27 will be to swap Lucas Digne (£5.3m) for Ricardo Pereira (£5.3m); Everton’s fixtures from Gameweek 27 to 31 are Blank, Cardiff (away), Liverpool (home), Newcastle (away), Chelsea (home), while Leicester play Crystal Palace (home), Brighton (home), Watford (away), Fulham (home), Burnley (away). The Foxes will also play Huddersfield away in Blank Gameweek 33.

If Arsenal get a Blank in Gameweek 31 (due to Wolves reaching the FA Cup quarter-finals) then you could aim to sell Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.3m) in Gameweek 29, when Arsenal play Spurs away from home before hosting Manchester United in Gameweek 30.

Some of the other top-six teams who might have a Blank in Gameweek 31 have favourable fixtures in the Gameweeks leading up to the FA Cup quarter-finals, but you won’t have to disrupt your team too much if you aim to save a free transfer in Gameweek 30.

That would allow you to make two transfers without a hit in Gameweek 31 and you can obviously bench four players who won’t have a fixture in the Blank Gameweeks.

If you’re planning on following the strategy below, you could aim to leave players on your in bench in Gameweek 31 who are likely to play in Gameweek 33 (based on the FA Cup quarter-final draw).

  • Free Hit in Double Gameweek 32
  • Wildcard in Gameweek 34
  • Bench Boost in Double Gameweek 35

For regular updates on Blank and Double Gameweek information follow Ben Crellin on Twitter, or visit his constantly updated FPL Calendar spreadsheet HERE.

717 Comments Post a Comment
  1. tilope
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Play one from Deeny, Doherty and Wan B

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Deeney

      1. tilope
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Suggestion or correcting my spelling haha!
        Cheers, I’m siding with him too right now.

  2. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Danilo worth considering for DGW?
    Also, as I already have Sane, probably the best way is to keep Hazard and avoid double up with Sterling?
    Probably dont want double S long term. 😉

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      If for free and doesn't stop you getting XI out in GW 27

      1. Atimis
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Can easily do for free Shaw to Danilo or Hazard to Sterling. Would get rid of Danilo after DGW.

        1. avfc82
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          I'm tempted by Danilo, see my post on the last page. Would have to be short term though.

  3. glufs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Is there a hivemind consensus on which Budget striker to go for (for benching)?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Ings or Niasse for me

  4. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Who else is waiting for the klopp presser fully knowing he gives either no information or false information?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Think he is trying mind games as the pressure of a first Liverpool title in 30 years increases

  5. Bojaninho
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Would you keep Rondon and bench for next 2 or switch to Ings (if I can spare the transfer depending on VVD news and my impulse doesnt make me do Kun>Auba)

  6. NUFCAndrew
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on my 3-5-2 WC team?

    Ederson Boruc

    Robbo Digne Doherty WB Bednarek

    Salah Sterling Sane Pogba Richarlison

    Rashford Jiminez Success

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Not sure about Success...

      1. NUFCAndrew
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Who for a budget bench striker then?

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Niasse if you can stretch or Solanke and wait

  7. Cabellafan
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    So TC Sterling or Sane for their dgw next week? If not who are you planning to TC?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Maybe one of those or Hazard in DGW or Salah in SGW

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Don't trust City anymore.

  8. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Play Bennett or AWB? On Bennett at the moment

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Ben

  9. Bring the Cavalry
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    5.9itb so fraser to ??

    A) Sterling
    B) Son

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      B Son, Spuds really need him back.

  10. Dirty Harry
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Pick one to bench:

    1. Doherty
    2. Shaw
    3. Digne
    4. Rich
    5. Felipe

    1. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      4 or 5.

      Prob 5

      1. Dirty Harry
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        FFF tells me Rich
        FFS tells me Felipe

        Mmmm

    2. tilope
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Tough! Probably Doherty but could easily backfire

      1. Dirty Harry
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah he was my first pick to bench. The double Wolves defence is killing me of late.

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      4

  11. Invincibles
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Worth doing VVD to Laporte this week? 3 games (potentially) v 1 over next 2 gwks.

    Good move?

    1. Teomi
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      IMO don´t think it´s worth it.
      If both cityand liverpool keep 100% clean sheets before the blank vvd will most likely get 18 p and laporte 24.
      To be fair I think liverpool have a better chance of three cs next thre games than city have on 4 games.

      1. Invincibles
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Still think that if vvd doesn’t play tonight?

    2. ㅤRising
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I went with that also, and thinking the same with 3 games vs 1-2, but I had Trent who is 100 percent out, while VVD is not confirmed out yet

  12. farmerfat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Can the Gw hurry up and start already !

  13. Reacher
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Hi guys, advice needed

    A, Firmino & Hazard to Sane & Auba

    or

    B, Alonso & Camarasa to Digne & Richarlison

    Thanks

    1. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      B

  14. Tom
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Not sure on whether to pull the trigger on Haz --> Sane

    What are people's thoughts?

    1. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Already done it.

      1. Jontharon
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Same here

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      not yet - Hazard loves playing Bournemouth. See how he gets on playing with Higuain

    3. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Wait one more GW. Newcastle are tight, Bournemouth aren't.

      1. Gregor
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Wait till he’s playing Huddersfield at home?

        1. fr3d
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          Wait till City has a double?

          1. Gregor
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Touché! Yeah, it does make sense to wait, the downgrade allowed me to fund Aubameyang as well to be fair.

    4. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Wait till next GW

    5. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'm waiting a week, want to see how Hazard performs with Higuain before deciding whether to ditch.

    6. pilgrimchris
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      its a close one but i'm giving him one more week. keen to see if him moving back out wide helps

  15. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Given the template forming my team this week is:

    McCarthy
    Son
    Ings

    1. Mo Mané Mo Problems
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Ha, mine is Alisson (double Liv def), Fraser, and Kun.

      Presume, Robbo, Digne, Doherty, Salah (c), Haz, Pogba, Rash, Jimi don't count?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Have all those mentioned except Jim

  16. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Current team (repost)...

    Button
    Robertson Digne TAA*
    Hazard Salah Richarlison Pogba
    Rashford Jimenez Auba
    Subs: Guaita - Doherty - AWB - Camarasa

    No money or transfers, so will risk the goalkeeper absence sadly.
    Not sure about line up with defence. Any suggestions?

    1. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      In the same boat. TAA wont feature imo.

      1. Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Play him just in case?

        1. 007 [RoboKlopp]
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          I put TAA on my bench, afraid of cameo.

          1. 007 [RoboKlopp]
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            But its ok if you want to play him just in case

  17. olidooley
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Hey guys....Ederson in with a FT....bench order ok though?

    Ederson
    Robertson TAA Doherty Digne
    Salah Sané Pogba
    Aubameyang Jiménez Rashford

    Patricio AWB Fraser Hojbjerg

  18. Hansel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Richarlison -> Sané or keep Richarlison and have 2FT for DGW?

    1. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Roll it.

    2. Emp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      id do it but would prefer to transfer a non dgw player out

    3. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Roll

  19. nicecat
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Kola, Doherty, Jonny, WanB, Schindler
    Sane, Sterling, Pogba, Richa, Anderson
    Firmino, Rash, Wilson

    Firmino > Auba (C)?

    1. hiawatha
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Pavkov. : )

  20. FPL AXE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    No news on Trent Alexander-Arnold being involved this game week yet?

    1. olidooley
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Seems unlikely by Klopp comments I think

    2. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Most likely out

    3. CliveTilds
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      He’s not. Anfield Express are never wrong and they confirmed he’s not playing.

    4. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Klopp press conference in an hour.

  21. Projected points tool
    Olivier Bernards watch
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    LONG POST WARNING!!!

    I've been wanting to construct a simple `expected utility' or `projected points' model of captaincy choice for a while, and since this is a week where a lot of people are struggling on the Auba vs Salah problem, i thought this would be a helpful time to do so and post the results, so here we go.

    The idea behind the model is the following. For each possible outcome O, multiply the probability of O occurring with the number of points the player would get if O occurred, then sum the results to get the projected points for the player. For Mids, I consider 8 possible outcomes, for forwards only 4 (where CS stands for clean sheet).

    Mids

    0 goals + no CS = 4
    0 goals + CS = 6
    1 goals + no CS = 14
    1 goals + CS = 16
    2 goals + no CS = 24
    2 goals + CS = 26
    3 goals + no CS = 34
    3 goals + CS = 36

    Forwards

    0 goals = 4
    1 goals = 12
    2 goals = 20
    3 goals = 28

    Clearly, i'm making some big simplifying assumptions here. Most importantly, i'm not modelling potential bonus points or assists, since they'd make the model a bunch more complicated and i don't have the time or patience. I'm also disregarding the possibility of 4 or more goals, which is not such a big deal since the probability would be negligible. Oh, and I assume that clean sheets are not correlated with goals for mids.

    With this setup, you get the following equations for projected points, where P(CS) = probability of clean sheet, P(1) = probability of scoring at all, P(2) = probability of scoring more than 1, P(3) = probability of scoring more than 2, P*(1) = probability of scoring exactly 1 = P(1) - P(2), P*(2) = probability of scoring exactly 2 = P(2) - P(3)

    Mids: ((1-P(1))(1 - P(CS)))4 + ((1-P(1))P(CS))6 + (P*(1)(1 - P(CS)))14 + (P(1)*P(CS))16 + (P*(2)(1 - P(CS)))24 + (P*(2)P(CS))26 + (P(3)(1 - P(CS)))34 + (P(3)P(CS))36

    Forwards: (1 - P(1))4 + (P*(1))12 + P*(2)20 + P(3)28

    Let's apply this to the Auba vs Salah debate. Here, I use probability estimates derived from from bet365's odds but you could obviously plug in any other bookie.

    Salah: P(CS) = 0.52, 1 - P(CS) = 0.48, P(1) = 0.63, P(2) = 0.29, P(3) = 0.1, P*(1) = 0.34, P*(2) = 0.19

    (0.37)(0.48)4 + (0.37)(0.52)6 + (0.34)(0.48)14 + (0.34)(0.52)16 + (0.19)(0.48)24 + (0.19)(0.52)26 + (0.1)(0.48)34 + (0.1)(0.52)36 = 15.24

    Aubameyang: P(1) = 0.73, P(2) = 0.4, P(3) = 0.16, P*(1) = 0.33, P*(2) = 0.24

    (0.27)4 + (0.33)12 + (0.24)20 + (0.16)28 = 14.32

    So Salah wins by almost one point. Interestingly, these projections are very close to those given by the RMT tool, so maybe one of the lessons of this is that the RMT tool seems to give a pretty solid captaincy choice method, for those who can't be bothered with all the maths. I'd like to extend this to include defenders at some point.

    In short, captain Salah 🙂

    1. Emp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      thanks great work! the gambler in me still wants to cap abamayang though 🙂

      1. Olivier Bernards watch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        sure, i get it. the difference between the two is thin, and given the number of additional factors which can't be easily modelled, it's not unreasonable to trust your gut in a split decision like this.

    2. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      A++ for effort

    3. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'm sticking with my bad decision made a long time ago to not have Salah in my team at all, so far it's not working out! So Capt Auba for me. Sterling and Sane ready already for the DGW.

    4. Captain Kakaroto (I blame R…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Nice post. It will be intersting to see how this model resultes in the next GW.
      Also could be love to read the extanded version that includes DEF

    5. Olivier Bernards watch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      cheers all. i'll probly post this again later tonight to get some more feedback, and i'll defo generalise to include defenders at some point.

      1. Olivier Bernards watch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        ah, HT now, so no need to repost 🙂

    6. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      You mention that the equations don't allow for bonus points - but they also don't allow for assists, cards or the chances of playing less than 60 minutes.

      1. Olivier Bernards watch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        i did mention that they don't allow for assists, and acknowledge that's a significant simplifying assumption. Certainly, cards and the possibility of playing less than 60 minutes are also significant, but typically not so when we're choosing our captain -- players like salah and auba rarely get booked or taken off early, if they did we wouldn't all be captaining them. More generally, it's obvious that the model could be significantly improved by adding further complexity, but so could any predictive model that's at all practical to use.

    7. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I use a method similar-ish to this, and I have them both pretty much level this week. I don't have Auba, but I think if I did I would go for him due to his lower EO this week.

    8. vibhormbic91
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I have a similar algorithm which includes Playing time, assists, goals, clean sheets and negative points for multiple goals. The only things missing are yellow/red cards points, save points and bonus points.
      The model is extended to players in all positions and is based on expected goals.

      For this week, my algorithm also favours Salah. Pogba is second and Aubameyang is third. The difference is almost 1.2 points including the captaincy

      1. Olivier Bernards watch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Awesome! A couple of questions, if you don't mind giving away your secrets.

        (1) how do you get estimates for the probabilities of assists (and bonus points), since most bookies don't seem to offer odds on assists?
        (2) what do you assume about the correlation between assists and goals, and between bonus points and clean sheets/goals/assists?

        1. Olivier Bernards watch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          ah i guess you just use expected assists -- that makes sense I suppose. But the problem with XA/XG here is that they aren't fixture specific, unlike the betting odds.

          1. vibhormbic91
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Yes, I did use xA. But there's a twist that makes it
            slightly more reliable. Let me explain the steps through an example from Arsenal v Cardiff this GW:

            1. Use all games played this season to forecast xG at a team-match level. My algorithm predicts that Arsenal will score 2.73 xG

            2. Distribute the xG on the basis of xG90 for the players in the predicted starting lineup. Auba's xG90 stands at 0.67. For this game, it scales up to 0.98.

            3. Calculate xA at a team level. Roughly 70.5% of all xG is assisted. So, Arsenal's xA should be 1.93 (2.73 * 70.5%)

            4. Distribute Arsenal's xA at a player level. This is similar to the redistribution of xG. The only difference is that we account for the goals Auba himself would score. Auba's xA90 stands at 0.15. After the adjustment, it becomes 0.18

            5. Convert all of these to points. 2 + 4 * 0.98 + 3 * 0.18 = 6.46

            In the actual model, I have also adjusted this for the average minutes Auba plays whenever he starts (84). The final xPoints comes out to be 6.12

            Any suggestions are welcome. Thanks for taking the interest

            1. Olivier Bernards watch
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              5 years, 2 months ago

              oh cool, that's an interesting approach! A couple of (probably naive) questions out of interest:

              (1) what kind of algorithm do you use to get the forecasted xG at team-match level? Is it a regression model or something?
              (2) How do you get the scaling effect so that Auba's xG90 increases for the Cardiff game? is the idea that you express his xG90 as a fraction of arsenal's overall xG90, and then take the same fraction of your xG90 for this specific match?
              (3) how do you manage to get all the relevant up to date data into a usable format for data analysis? or do you just look in the members area and plug the stuff in by hand?

              1. vibhormbic91
                • 8 Years
                5 years, 2 months ago

                1. My approach is a derivation from this. Although it has many more components https://statsbomb.com/2018/11/introducing-the-schedule-adjusted-league-table/
                2. Yes
                3. I have a scraping algorithm that I run after every GW. It pulls data from understat.com and FPL's official website. Unfortunately, I'm not a paying member of the FFS community

                1. Olivier Bernards watch
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  5 years, 2 months ago

                  ah i see, cool, and thanks for the link. i'd be really interested to know how your model does long term, please consider posting some results at some point in the future!

                  1. vibhormbic91
                    • 8 Years
                    5 years, 2 months ago

                    Sure. All the best for the GW today.

  22. Tabbara
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on Alonso starting,
    Don't have a great bench, worried he won't start, would you bring Laporte for him this GW?

    1. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Looks like a good move

    2. Rains of Castamere
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I'm starting him with AWB first sub. I expect Emerson to play and then he'll be getting shipped out for a DGW defender.

      1. Teomi
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        just did alonso to kola. makes me upgrade midfiled.

  23. John Colby (Capt)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Alli owners - are you tempted to save a transfer this Gameweek for DGW 25?

    1. tokara
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      saving...just cap Salah we be fine

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I brought back the prodigal Son

  24. wolves_simmo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Is Kolasinac nailed now?

  25. el polako
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Looks like Pochettino declared himself out of potential Man Utd job with his comments how trophies are just ego boosters and top 4 finish is all that matters.
    Cant imagine that such big club like Man Utd would be intrested in someone without ambition.

    1. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Ole Gunner is the man anyway

    2. Rostah
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Awks if Spurs finish 5th & OGS signs the contract

    3. Emp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      I don't think he doesn't have ambition just a clear sense of what his priorities are.

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        His main priority should be to make Spurs fans feel happy and proud again.
        The want to mix with big boys and yet they havent seen a single trophy for over a decade.
        Who the hell he thinks he is to write off FA Cup like that.

        1. noquarternt
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          He's deflected onto himself. Now everyone is talking about him rather than the Spurs players and their performance.

          Great managers do this all the time.

          His job is to keep the chairman happy and the chairman is happy when they get the CL money.

          Fans are ecstatic at being even considered in the same breath as teams like Chelsea and Man City. Need to get some perspective.

          1. el polako
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 2 months ago

            Ask Wigan fans if they would swap FA Cup win for staying in PL ?

            Trophies & titles is how clubs, players & managers are rememberd - not number of seasons with top 4 finishes.

    4. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      He’s lost in transition of what he’s said imo. He’s basically saying financial stability is important for club. Won’t make sense to play if trophy isn’t a target

  26. soupeh
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Need some second opinions if anyone fancies giving me a hand!
    GK - Alisson
    DEF - Jonny - Robertson - Lindelof - Wan-Bissaka - Doherty
    MID - Salah (C) - Hazard - Pogba (V)
    FWD - Aguero - Ings
    Bench - Patricio - Kante - Deeney - Sissoko

    I'm thinking about going Kante > Lamela, and possibly taking a -4 for Hazard > Sterling but unsure on that one.

    1.6m ITB.

  27. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    A) Alli ➡ Siggy
    B) Alli ➡ Son
    C) Save FT and play Bednarek

    1. Ohh1454
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      C

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Ohh

    2. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      B

  28. Ohh1454
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Which one ?
    A. Bilva
    B. Dilva
    C. Kdb

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      To bench?
      To play
      To buy?
      To sell?

      1. Bubz
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        To marry, to kill?

        1. La Roja
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          :mrgreen:

      2. olidooley
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        To buy this weekend, next week?

      3. Ohh1454
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 2 months ago

        Buy

        1. La Roja
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 2 months ago

          KDB

    2. olidooley
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Flip a 3 sided coin

    3. Rains of Castamere
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      Bilva seems the most nailed.

    4. The 5% Team
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 months ago

      C

  29. FPLEL
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Ryan -> Ederson (Fabianski benched)?

    Mainly for DGW prep.

  30. Valar(Keith)
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone punting on Arnie? Good fixture tnite and no blank for the foreseeable