“But beware of the dark side. Anger, fear, aggression; the dark side of the Force are they. Easily they flow, quick to join you in a fight. If once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny, consume you it will…”
REVENGE OF THE SITH (HALL OF FAME)
The Great and The Good FPL Jedi gathered round me as I warned them of the dangers of the dark side or the Hall of Fame as those not blessed with the powers of the force call them.
I had called my rebel alliance together as we readied ourselves to go into battle with Darth “Top Marx” Vader and his imperial forces. They were unenthusiastic with Az claiming he has a bad feeling about this, Joe repeatedly telling us all it was a trap and David just grumpy that I had made him wear the Princess Leia bikini. There truly is a disturbance in the force.
Whilst waiting for marathon GW32 to finally come to end I had taken control of Top Marx’s marvellous spreadsheet to see how The Great and The Good were faring against the Hall of Fame up to GW31.
OVERALL PERFORMANCE
The graph above shows the ranks of the The Great and The Good over the 31 game weeks. The vertical scale is from rank 1 to 2m. The distance between the ranks corresponds to the number of points separating them. For instance, there are 298pts between rank 1 and rank 100k and 221pts between 100k and 1m. The graph gives an idea of how difficult it is to move up the ranks as you near the summit.
The level of difficulty to reach the higher ranks has increased since the last time we looked at this back in GW21 with the gap between rank 1 and 100k only at 249 at that stage.
The average rank of The Great and The Good has got worse since GW21, which is not as you would expect with more data available. It was 97,000 at that time compared to 115,000 now.
The peak for these teams was back in GW17 when they hit an average of 47,000, which shows how damaging the second half of these season has been. Interesting to note that all have hung onto the misfiring Salah who has scored 20 points less than Mane and Sterling since GW21 who have been in the main overlooked by The Great and The Good.
Az has shown the biggest rank increase since GW21 gaining 66,000 places but still sits outside the top 200,000 and somewhere off his season high in GW4 of 50,000. Mark has been the true star performer and is the only manager in the top 10,000 whereas back in GW21 both David and Ville Ronka accompanied him in this bracket.
Mark’s season is even more remarkable considering his start to the season as he was outside the top million in GW4. Clearly there are numerous things he has done right but his tactic to go cheap upfront and pack the midfield has been a key factor, he has held Sterling consistently, has a strong captaincy record and although he has taken a lot of hits he did this towards the start of the season recognising he needed to close the gap to the top before it came a chasm.
Since GW21 he has fully exploited the double GW25 with LaPorte and that man Sterling again being crucial. Rondon and TAA has also proved cunning purchases over recent weeks but he is not infallible as he also fell for the Felipe Anderson trap.
TRANSFER SUCCESS
The table below gives us a view of the transfer success of The Great and The Good based on the data provided via FPL Statistico. This doesn’t reflect the fact that transfers are generally made with more than one fixture in mind, and that patience in an underperforming player can pay off.
Joe continues to be the transfer king based on this metric with 133 points after hits over the season which averages at 3.59 point gain per move. LaPorte in GW25 and then Mane in GW30 have been highlights but he has consistent all season and clearly has an eye for a bargain.
David was one of the better wheeler dealers at the GW21 point averaging 3.55 per transfer this now sits at 2.4 points gained and is he is bottom of the pile overall. Perhaps he should have been more aggressive in his moves, he has only taken 1 extra hit since GW21 unlike Az who has taken 5 and who improved his immediate points total from 82 to 158.
CAPTAIN PICKS
As mentioned this is where Mark has stood out with an average of 18.4 points. David was previously the Jedi Knight of the armband but now averages 16.8 compared a lofty 20.1 back in GW21 and it shows how important armband choice is to compete at the top level as this has no doubt impacted his rank.
There have been 14 different captains picked by this group of managers. Salah leads the way at 43% selection which is an increase from 38% last time but interesting to note that his 16.3 average contribution when picked is down since last time’s 18.4 – have they shown too much faith in Mo?
What is really intriguing has been the limited success when The Great and The Good have tried to look outside the mainstream captaincy choices with an average of 7 points returned from those outside of the top 5 picks – this has not been a season to be maverick in our armband choices.
THE GREAT AND THE GOOD JEDI VS THE HALL OF FAME SITH
So now to the final battle as the two groups draw their lightsabres and the rebel alliance face overwhelming odds, “help me Obi-Wan Mark Sutherns, you’re my only hope”.
To compare the two groups, I have taken the best Career Hall of Fame managers not signed up by The Great and The Good. Therefore, The Hall of Fame line up looks intimidating and as follows: Grant Barclay, Matthew Jones, Marlen Rattiner, Owen Walker, Richard Clarke, Paul Gee, Lester Cheng, Kenneth Tang, Rick Beamish, and Bruce Savage. The table below shows the total points and position for each group of managers.
The results are controversial, and we may need to seek guidance from Master Yoda to separate the teams as whilst The Great and The Good have a better average rank of 115,000 to 121,000 they have a worse average point score of 1816 to 1817. The recovery by the Hall of Fame has been led by Owen Walker who has risen 120,000 places over the last 10 game weeks and they now boast 3 managers in the top 15,000 compared to the lone warrior Mark for The Great and The Good.
So, what have we learnt from this exercise? To quote a well-known FPL manager “consistency is a differential” and whilst there will be highs and lows the season is a full 38 weeks and the only rank that really matters is at the end of the season. There is plenty of opportunity in the next weeks especially with those with chips in hand to make ground up on the leading pack.
We have also learnt that maybe fear of missing out (FOMO) should not govern our decisions and I do wonder if more had decided to go without Salah then would the results have been different.
Finally, a message for Top Marx and the Hall of Fame “You can’t win, Top Marx. Strike me down, and we will become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.”
Anyway, may the force be with you and normal service will resume later in the week as we look back at GW32 and remember don’t have nightmares.
TOP MARX’S POST-MATCH INTERVIEW
“There is no escape. Don’t make me destroy you.” That’s perhaps a tad extreme, although if I’m going to represent the Dark Side then I may as well play my part. Truth be told I feel more Dark Helmet than Darth Vader.
Although unlike Dark Helmet I am certainly not surrounded by [word removed by moderation]! The Hall of Fame’s steady progress this season is encouraging and I expected nothing less from this elite group of FPL managers.
However there remains room for improvement. The HoF have been relatively poor in picking captains this season in comparison to their TG&TG counterparts. No HoF manager has more than 500 captain points whereas Mark has a hugely impressive 538 and David 520. Owen Walker is our best performing FPL manager with 499.
Even their worst performing manager for captain picks – Az – still performs better than three HoF managers: Marlen, Lester, and Kenneth.
Marlen has a remarkable four top 1,000 finishes in his FPL career and is within touching distance of his fifth. Currently ranked 5,425 it was surprising to discover he has only gained 394 captain points this season. Had Marlen matched Mark’s captain score he would be in the top 10 overall.
Another surprising aspect of Marlen’s season is that he’s only made 89 immediate transfer points after hits (39 transfers, 44 points in hits). Compare this to Bruce Savage who has gained 183 immediate transfer points after hits (43 transfers, 56 points in hits). Yet in spite of his success, Bruce finds himself languishing at 189,670 overall.
What are we to make of this finding? An obvious conclusion is that immediate transfer points does not necessarily equal a good rank. Looking deeper, perhaps Bruce has bought players and then after a Gameweek or two they have stop performing? Perhaps Marlen has bought players too early and has been rewarded in later Gameweeks?
I feel when we construct the story of this season, odd findings such as this will help explain why many FPL managers have struggled. Career Hall of Fame number three, Matthew Jones, averages 4.84 points gained per transfer (immediate transfer points after hits). The best average in the HoF team. And he would surely be on for his eighth top 10,000 rank if he had earned more than his 406 captain points this season. Great at making transfers, below average at picking captains this year.
One FPL manager who has not struggled this season is TG&TG supremo Grey Head, currently ranked a magnificent 139 overall. What’s impressive is that he’s achieved his three-digit rank without being outstanding in any metric – 472 captain points and 138 immediate transfer points after hits. Very good totals but one might expect more at such a lofty rank.
Perhaps the leader of the Rebel Alliance will kind enough to show us the true nature of the force? (or perhaps just share some tips for success?)
To take on a more sinister tone: “Give yourself to the Dark Side. It is the only way you can save your friends.”
5 years, 22 days agoGreat read! I really look forward to these. Good work both.
I've been closely watching all of these managers and Greyhead's continued rise to the top has been fun to watch!