Wolves unlucky as Brighton assets prove their worth

Wolves and Brighton bust plenty of coupons between them in the opening bout of Double Gameweek 35 fixtures.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side were heavily backed for goals after the Seagulls shipped seven in their previous two outings.

For that reason, their defenders were among the most sold assets after Double Gameweek 34.

That’s why a 0-0 at Molineux on Saturday afternoon caused frustration for many a Fantasy manager.

In this latest Scout Notes article, we assess how that result was achieved and whether it should have any effect on our teams for the rest of the season.

Wolves 0-0 Brighton

Goals: None

Assists: None

Wolves were very unfortunate not to record a win over Brighton on Saturday afternoon. Nuno’s side is currently top for shots in the box out of any team in Double Gameweek 35 so far. They also emerged from the game with an expected goals score (xG) of 2.78, the second highest of any team in the round at this point. Not surprisingly their xG delta of -2.78 is the biggest negative of the Gameweek too. That should alleviate any fears that their attacking assets have lost their value to Fantasy managers for the final three matches of the campaign.

“I would be really concerned if we didn’t produce enough chances and that was not the case, I’m happy with the way we moved the ball and the chances that we created. What I will say is that we should do better with the final touch and this is something.” – Nuno Espirito Santo

Where Wolves do seem to be having problems recently is accuracy as they are joint third-worst for shots on target in the last four matches. In that time they have scored just three times, only Huddersfield, Cardiff and Brighton netting fewer.

Diogo Jota (£6.2m) was the most unlucky against Brighton as he hit the bar in the first and the post in the second. The Portuguese attacker had at least double the number of shots in the box of any other player on the pitch at Molineux, his total the highest in the league for Double Gameweek 35 so far. Meanwhile, Raúl Jiménez (£6.9m), a popular captain option for this round, was joint second both for shots and shots in the box, but could not direct any on target.

“We just needed that rub of the green really; maybe for one of those chances where Diogo has hit the woodwork to go in. I thought we played some good stuff at times but we just needed that little bit of luck.” – Conor Coady

While they were largely unlucky and were facing a Brighton defence with a point to prove (more on that later), perhaps the issue for Wolves of late has been the quality of opposition, as three of their last four matches have been against teams in the bottom six. That is a bracket they have largely struggled against since returning to the Premier League, and this latest means that Wolves have failed to score in both meetings with Brighton.

As you can see from the table above, Wolves have taken more points from matches against the top six this season than they have against the bottom six. They have scored more goals too, have a superior goal difference and lost fewer matches against the better sides. That staggering fact about Wolves does seem to be linked with their troubles breaking down sides that stick men behind the ball. It is entirely possible that Fantasy options such as Jiménez and Jota will become ones to focus on when they have harder fixtures, so all eyes will be on how they perform against Arsenal on Wednesday. However, there may be concerns about the final three matches of the season for Wolves, which sees them travel to Watford, host Fulham and face Liverpool at Anfield.

“Teams are going to come and do that, we’ve found that a few times this season. Normally, at this level, when teams do that it is hard to break down. We did dominate the ball and, unfortunately, we couldn’t find a way. It’s something that we’ll go and work on and try and create different ideas to break teams down who come at us like that, we’ve found it a couple of times this season. We have found it difficult so we’ll keep working as hard as we can and we’ve got another big game on Wednesday.” – Ryan Bennett

Wolves’ first clean sheet since Gameweek 29 largely stemmed from Brighton’s troubles in front of goal, which in spite of the positive result, has now stretched to six matches. The last time the Seagulls found the back of the net in any competition was when Solly March (£4.7m) netted against Millwall in the FA Cup last month. As Chris Hughton continues to rotate his attacking options, Jose Izquierdo (£5.9m) coming in on the left flank of a 4-3-3 after 4-4-1-1 failed against Cardiff, it is clear that the clean sheet potential of upcoming opponents Newcastle, Arsenal and Manchester City are boosted between now and the end of the season.

“We are lacking a little bit of confidence in front of goal, getting into those areas, creativity. We are finding it hard to score. That is the next bit but if we can show that type of determination in all the games, we at least give ourselves a chance. We were on the back of two very disappointing results. The reaction was right and shows we are not such a bad team.” – Chris Hughton

The visit to Molineux was unlikely to be the match in which Brighton scored again. After the humiliation of conceding seven times in two outings against Bournemouth and Cardiff, Chris Hughton was always going to set his team out in a well-organised defensive shape in an attempt to contain Wolves, especially given their well-documented struggles against such sides.

While there was an element of bad luck in the blank that Wolves drew in front of their own fans, huge credit has to go to Mat Ryan (£4.4m), Shane Duffy (£4.8m) and Lewis Dunk (£4.4m), who were shunned by many stung by them in Double Gameweek 34. The two centre-backs formed a big part of the resistance to Wolves’ attack, while Ryan made some incredible saves to earn one additional point and two bonus. Their efforts helped Brighton to just their second clean sheet in their last 13 matches in all competitions, and it was their first in an away Premier League outing since the Gameweek 9 trip to Newcastle. The Magpies are Brighton’s next opponents in Gameweek 36, and given they are in the bottom four for shots in the box and big chances in the last four away matches, holding onto and starting the likes of Ryan, Duffy and Dunk could be a shrewd move.

“To have a clean sheet is credit to everyone. I can only make the saves the defence allow me to. When they are busting a gut and throwing themselves at everything, it’s making the opposition work extra hard to create those opportunities. It was a fantastic effort to not give them too much space. It enabled me to help the team and get there in the end.” – Mat Ryan

“I’m just hoping we can take value from the manner of the result. We knew it was going to be very difficult against a side that has had a very good season, got a lot of gifted players. We had to show that type of work ethic, determination. If we had shown anything less we wouldn’t have got a result. I’m really pleased with the reaction and hopefully, we can take that through to the end of the season.” – Chris Hughton

Obviously, there is still another match to go for Brighton in Double Gameweek 35 before making final decisions on their assets. They will have to make a few tweaks to the side that defended so bravely at Wolves. Davy Pröpper (£4.8m), who was forced off at Molineux, has been ruled out of the trip to Spurs by Hughton, mainly due to the quick turnaround.

“We’ll assess him. At this moment he’s not too bad as regards soreness. We will scan him which will give us an assessment of how bad it is. We don’t think it’s a bad one but of course it’s very fresh. Certainly as regards the (Spurs) game it’s too quick.” – Chris Hughton

It has been confirmed by the Brighton boss that Beram Kayal (£4.4m), who came on for his Dutch colleague at Wolves, will start against Spurs. Hughton handed him praise for coming in and doing a job on Saturday despite not making an appearance in the league since a five-minute cameo in Gameweek 29.

“Credit to him. He’s not featured as much as he would have liked but it’s part and parcel of the game. It’s about a response and an opportunity when you play. When he came on I thought he did really well. Irrespective of anybody playing more or less games than they thought, they are always part of a squad that’s fighting. The moment somebody thinks that opportunity is not going to come for them, invariably it does and they have got to be ready for it.” – Chris Hughton

Right-back Bruno (£4.4m) had to come off at Molineux too, but Hughton is less concerned about him. He insists the veteran defender is not injured but given his age and role in the side this year, it would be a surprise if he started against Spurs.

“Bruno’s not too bad, probably just a little bit of a precaution. He was just feeling his thigh. The feeling is it isn’t an injury, maybe just that little bit of fatigue, two games in a short period of time. So as regards him being fit, then yes he is.” – Chris Hughton

Wolverhampton Wanderers XI (3-5-2): Patrício; Boly, Coady, Bennett; Jonny (Vinagre 67′), Moutinho, Neves, Gibbs-White (Dendoncker 73′), Doherty (Traoré 84′); Jota, Jiménez.

Brighton and Hove Albion XI (4-3-3): Ryan; Bong, Dunk, Duffy, Bruno (Bernardo 70′); Pröpper (Kayal 10′), D Stephens, Groß; Izquierdo, Murray, March.