The Monday After – GW3 and Beyond

I say “Volatile”, you say “Market!” “Volatile” …

So many great players, so little time to decide our transfers this weekend! There was a lot of pressure on us to make changes before the gameweek had even finished, and I certainly can’t have been the only one up at 2am flipping between the transfer page and a price change predictor tirelessly tinkering with my two free transfers. It seemed like every player that scored points on the weekend was rising in price regardless of what their upcoming fixtures were or how well they actually played. This weekend was definitely a minefield.

Regardless of how crazy a gameweek can get, or how difficult a transfer decision can be, we always have the fixture tracker fall back on. So I’ve picked the teams who we’re all talking about this weekend and had a wee look to see what’s what on the fixture side of things. If I’ve missed a team, I may have written about them last week. I try not to write about the same team twice in a row.

Alright! Let’s do this.

Teams to look into

Chelsea

I thought I’d get the obvious out of the way first before we crack on with the good stuff. Chelsea’s attack looked bad. Not the worst, mind you, but not particularly good. There was no real goal threat after the initial mistake by Ndidi (5.0m), and that really sucks for anyone who took a chance on Christian Pulisic (7.5m), Pedro (7.0m) or any other attacking player. As for the defence, there was a notable improvement in their backline, but after half time it looked like Lampard was tactically outplayed in midfield, and the inevitable clean sheet wipe-out came soon after. Now I am in no way suggesting you bring any Chelsea players in! Not at all. But for all those managers who own Blues assets, it’s clear that Lampard is a quick learner and will fill these holes that take a bit of game-time to find. Looking at the next 10 matches, they only play one top 6 team, LIV (H), and our Fixture Tracker puts them in 2nd place for ‘best fixture run’ in the league. So don’t panic! There’s time to right this ship. 

Everton

Another game week, and another clean sheet! If you’ve picked an Everton defender for the opening two matches, you’re now experiencing what we in the biz call a ‘set and forget’ player. The Toffees play MCI at home in GW6, but this looks like the only real test they’ll face in the first 10 game weeks except for maybe Wolves in GW4 which again is a home game. With most of their difficult fixtures being played at Goodison Park, and a very solid defensive showing so far, there’s nothing stopping Everton from keeping these good times rolling. If you aren’t currently sitting with one of their defenders, you might wanna start looking at ways to bring one in, especially Digne (6.0) who had the best stats of any Everton defender for both defending and attacking. Speaking of attacking, Silva himself stated after the game that the team isn’t quite at full power yet. Alex Iwobi (6.0m) hasn’t featured at all, and Moise Kean (7.0m) has yet to play a full match. Though when Kean did show his face for the last 20 minutes or so against Watford, he was looking tasty! He was carving up space for himself, he was dribbling well, and even had 2 more shots than Calvert-Lewin (6.0m) had in 72 minutes (which was 0 by the way). We should definitely be keeping an eye on the Italian wonderkid. Expect Everton to start ramping up the goal tally as soon as he’s fit. If you’re currently an owner of an attacking Toffee, then maybe hold out just a little while longer. They’ve definitely been unlucky not to have scored more in these last two games.

West Ham

Now we haven’t seen much from West Ham, but the Hammers have the BEST fixtures for both GW3-8, and GW3-12. So for any managers out there looking for a short term or long term budget solutions to a problem, consider downgrading to some of West Ham’s more encouraging options! We’ve got Lukasz Fabianski (5.0m) in goals who you just know will get save points, and is a great placeholder for Arsenal’s Leno (5.0m) if you’re looking to get into the Gunners’ defence on the cheap (top for fixtures from GW8-16). If you’re looking for a defender, have a look at Ryan Fredericks (4.5m) whose decided to make the oppositions’ final third his home for the last two games. He’s had even had a few touches in the box! Getting rid of Perez? How about Manuel Lanzini (6.5m)? He’s been a shining light in the West Ham attack for the first 2 games, with 4 key passes and 5 dribbles against Brighton, and an assist to boot. He looks wonderfully comfortable again, which is a great sight after all the injury stuff he’s had to deal with. I wish I could give you guys Sébastien Haller (7.0) as an option as well, but he’s had a wee knock and might not be playing for a bit. I liked what he was selling against City, but until he’s back and scoring, he’s staying on my watchlist.

Man City

There’s been pandemonium in the FPL community since Kevin de Bruyne’s (9.6m) assist brace on Saturday. Teams are being ripped to shreds as managers scrape the cash together to afford him. City have the third best fixture run in the premier league from now until GW12, and KDB won’t be the only one to benefit. Raheem Sterling (12.1m) is on fire right now, and is well on his way to becoming the highest owned player in the game. Oleksandr Zinchenko (5.5m) has cemented his place in the starting XI after Pep’s comments regarding Mendy’s (6.0m) fitness in last week’s press conference. Although he had a bit of an injury scare at the end of the Spurs game, Zinchenko seems fine as of Monday morning, ready for the next block of fixtures, ready to reach that clean sheet potential we all know City have! To conclude, I think you’d be crazy not to have 3 city players in your squad with the fixture run they have coming up, and the performances they’ve had.

Teams to be wary of

Leicester

Although we knew the opening fixtures weren’t too kind for the Foxes, I’m sure many expected them to do much better than just 1 goal in two games. That faint clicking sound you can hear is tens of thousands of managers simultaneously banning Ayoze Pérez (6.5) to the shadow realm. You can hardly blame them, considering that Leicester play MUN (A), TOT (H) and LIV (A) in their next 6 matches. They did stand a good chance of getting another few goals past Kepa and the boys but it wasn’t to be, leaving Jamie Vardy (9.0m) owners struggling to decide whether to bin him as well or hope for the best against their next two opponents: SHU (A) and BOU (H). He didn’t look too bad after all. Either way, it’s a tough road for owners. Looking at 10 games ahead, Leicester are 11th in our Fixture Tracker and will only start to see a good run of fixtures from GW9 onwards.

Liverpool

Everyone who started the season with double LIV defence is now thinking about ditching one of them. Everyone who started with just one LIV defender is thinking “ well at least I didn’t double up”. The Fixture Tracker agrees with the idea of dropping one, as the Reds have the 4th worst fixture run from now up to GW12. The only problem is, not having 3 players from the champions league winning side is a very foreign concept to us FPLers. It’s foreign territory that they are 0/2 for clean sheets to begin with! So who could we get in other than a defender? Well Roberto Firmino (9.5m) is a cheap alternative way into the attack, but we all know it’s Sadio Mane (11.5) we should be bringing in. Can we justify downgrading multiple positions for him? Or do we swap out Mo Salah (12.5) and leave ourselves open to the ownership punishment? Do we get Bobby in as a taster and return to this dilemma on our Wildcards? Regardless of the decision we make, it’s clear that Liverpool aren’t keeping their defensive end of the bargain, and the fixtures aren’t going to be helping matters for a little while yet.

Brighton

So we finally saw our boy Leandro Trossard (6.0m) start, and owners everywhere rejoiced! But that was it, really. Wasn’t it? No clean sheet. No real hope of achieving the same scoreline as GW1, and no amount of running from Martín Montoya (4.5m) could tempt us to defy the dismal fixture run they have coming up from GW4-10 (Spoiler alert, they’re dead last for fixtures). Whichever way you slice it, if you own their assets, defensive or attacking, you’re probably okay with giving them one last game for old times sake, before looking for pastures, or uh… players, new. If you absolutely have no choice but to keep ‘em, then just assume the worst against City in GW4, hold for BUR (H) and NEW (A) for GW5 and 6, and by that time, Burnley have a great little fixture run you can transfer over to. 

Barnes / Pukki

I’ve added this little bit at the end here because I’ve had too many questions to count about the striker pair. Should we be jumping to bring them in, even though they have bad fixtures and have risen in price? The simple answer is – I haven’t. I’m a big time fixture hunter, and they just don’t have the fixtures to justify the transfer. However, I’m sure there are just as many successful managers who swear by Form that have already snatched them up. There’s more than one way to play FPL. For me, there’s plenty of time to decide if we want them in (because let’s face it, if their form continues then they’ll still be valuable at 7.0m), but for now let’s make sure our other fires are covered in our teams before jumping on another points chase. Pukki (6.7m) won’t be scoring hattricks every week and Barnes (6.6m) has just a few bad games before a really decent fixture run. Unless their ownership goes up so high they become shields, they aren’t players you should be worried about. 

And that’s a wrap!

Looking at the fixtures from GW3 and onwards, it’s clear who we should be focussing our efforts on. I’ve tried to highlight the best assets on each team who have good fixtures, while also warning you off a few teams with poor fixtures. Again, if I’ve missed a team you were looking to read about, check my previous article, or just tweet me and ask about ‘em. I’ll no doubt have an opinion. Happy tinkering! See you next Monday.
 
(All fixture difficulties are assessed using this fixture tracker. The difficulty rating of each team fluctuates per match depending on performance.)