Spot the Differential

Man City injuries could allow Mahrez to reward Fantasy owners

With many of the highly-owned players failing to deliver in recent weeks, differentials are becoming more and more important to Fantasy Premier League managers.

In Gameweek 7, the top 10 points-scorers all had single-digit ownership levels, proving that many of this season’s top performers are still hiding away.

It was another good week for this regular column though. Andriy Yarmolenko (£6.0m) and Chris Wood (£6.2m) lived up to their billing by registering a goal each.

Let’s hope for more of the same this weekend. Here are three exciting players owned by 5% or less ahead of Gameweek 8.

Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez has been in exceptional form recently

Price: £8.6m 

Ownership: 4.9% 

GW8 Opponent: Wolves (H)

A player averaging 6.4 points per game is always hard to ignore in FPL, although Riyad Mahrez (£8.6m) is much more of a hidden gem right now because he plays for Manchester City.

Had it not been for their ‘Pep Roulette’ rotation system, the former Leicester man probably would have been an essential asset weeks ago.

However, a unique opportunity has emerged which makes Mahrez a viable option, at least for now. 

With fitness concerns over Kevin de Bruyne this weekend and the risk of Bernardo Silva missing out (perhaps long-term), Mahrez seems likely to be involved from the start against Wolves.

Despite only starting four league games since August, he has registered two goals and five assists – one every 57 minutes. 

Mahrez has the same amount of FPL points as Sadio Mané despite offering a saving of £3.0m, which shows how appealing his points per million is.

The Algerian’s underlying statistics almost seem too good to be true and some may say that they are skewed. But form is all that matters to me. 

Over the last two Gameweeks, among all midfielders, Mahrez has the most number of touches in the opponents’ half (127) and the most number of touches in the final third (90). 

For good measure, he’s also had 9 attempts on goal during the same period – only John McGinn has had more. That in itself speaks volumes and boosts his credibility.

Man City are due to face a potentially fatigued Wolves team this weekend that lacks the squad depth to effectively manage their Europa League and Premier League commitments. If Mahrez starts, it would be hard to say he won’t be involved in the goals.

Andriy Yarmolenko

Yarmolenko has been in good form recently and earns a recall to the differentials picks

Price: £6.0m

Ownership: 4.0%

GW8 Opponent: Crystal Palace (H)

For this first time this season, I’ve decided to repurpose one of my picks from last week. 

Yarmolenko’s wnership has increased by 2.7% but is thankfully still below the 5% threshold and capable of propelling his owners up the rankings.

The West Ham midfielder has now registered three goals in his last four league games. For all midfielders priced at £6.5m or less he currently has the best points per game average (5.5). 

Also, during the last two Gameweeks, Yarmolenko has registered the joint-fifth most amount of touches in the final third among all midfielders (54). 

This Michu-esque form shows that he’s getting in the right advanced areas and is being rewarded for his efforts.

It is clear that Yarmolenko’s minutes were being managed in August and early September, to ease him back in after his long injury lay off but he’s now beginning to play the entirety of games. 

For this campaign, he is currently averaging a goal for every 125 minutes played, which is very respectable for a budget midfielder. 

Provided he stays fit and can maintain good performance levels he could end up with at least a dozen goals by the end of the season. 

West Ham’s next opponents are Crystal Palace. The Hammers have scored 10 goals in their last five matches against the Eagles and I expect more from them with Yarmolenko at the helm.

Oli McBurnie 

McBurnie will probably enjoy playing against Watford’s poor defence

Price: £5.9m

Ownership: 0.1% 

GW8 Opponent: Watford (A)

If you’re short on cash up top and are willing to take a substantial risk on an uber-differential then look no further than Oliver McBurnie (£5.9m). 

The Sheffield United forward has started four consecutive Premier League games for his team and, since Gameweek 6, among players priced at £6.0m or less, he has the joint-third highest number of shots on goal.

That period has pitted the Blades against Everton and Liverpool, so there’s every reason to believe he can continue to provide threat against Watford.

 Of course, it’s a concern that he’s only scored one Premier League goal during his entire career, which includes an additional 16 appearances for Swansea City. 

But last season he demonstrated his ability to find the net regularly and seems to be gradually adapting to life as a top-flight centre-forward.

In the Premier League, he clearly won’t match his goal tally from last season but I expect him to gradually improve by each Gameweek. 

Vicarage Road on Saturday could serve as an ideal opportunity for him. The Hornets have been completely woeful recently, even after their managerial change. 

McBurnie and Sheffield United could cause them more trouble after having impressed against some of the league’s more established teams since Gameweek 1.

Lessons Learned from Gameweek 7

911 Comments Post a Comment
  1. tafrère
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Salah (C) v Sterling (C).

    Debate.

    1. tafrère
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Thank you God for the top post, I know my karma has been good lately.

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Whatever you think you should do, do the opposite.

      1. tafrère
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Mhmhm, great advice, I would have score much more points this season if I had done this.

      2. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        😀 true

      3. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Then as soon as I go opposite the logical choice will win out...

    3. No_Mo_Salah?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Pukki (C)

      1. tafrère
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        You crazy! Maybe a crazy man speaking the truth ?

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        This isn't a terrible shout if you are going crazy splitting the other two.

    4. Pinturicchio10
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Sterling.
        Wolves are worse than Leicester and have had less rest.

        1. tafrère
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          What if Aguero get all the goals once again . I can't take it anymore.

          1. Pinturicchio10
              4 years, 5 months ago

              Then so be it. All we can do pick the most likely to score a goal and then after that hope for a haul. For me, that's Sterling.

        2. michudagawd
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Sterling

        3. Alonso The Great Midfielder
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          in the paper leciester hasgood form than wolves. so maybe i go for city asset before liverpool but really tight call

        4. A Fat Spanish Waiter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          sterling for me, mate.

        5. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Dice or coin if you would rather let fate call it than yourself

      • Lecky Legs FC
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        One GW punt only as I'll be bringing him after IB if fit,who to bring this this weekend for KdB?

        A) Mahrez

        B) Son

        1. Pep Roulette
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          A

        2. tafrère
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Mahrez if you think he'll start, Son safer choice.

          1. Lecky Legs FC
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            Debating if Mahrez starts now played a full 90 on Wednesday and Bilva surely starts up top with Kun & Sterling before getting his match suspension from the FA (which looks surprisingly like it's going to happen)

      • Kuzser
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        So seems Saka is nailed to start this weekend. As KDB will most likely miss the game, which option is better

        1) Hayden-> Saka
        2) save ft, accept Soy stepping it for KDB

        Pope
        lundstram Ota Taa
        KDB Mount Son Sterling
        Pukki Abraham Firmino

        Button. Soy, Hayden, Hanley

        1. tafrère
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          If you want some fun 1), it not 2).

        2. SH
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          I have just done Hayden>Saka. Risky but exciting!

      • Rash
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        the international break, which means I could do KDB to mahrez as a 1 week punt..

        Pope
        Trent otamendi lundy
        Salah sterling kdb mount
        Barnes pukki tammy

        Button cantwell montoya Soy

        Problem with possibility of wildcard is I'd probably keep at least 7 of the players I already have..

        Would love some of your thoughts please

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Any money in the bank?

          1. Rash
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            .5 1ft

            1. Miguel Sanchez
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 5 months ago

              Perhaps something dull like Montoya to Tomori to give you a better playing option this week

        2. Rash
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Not sure where the start of this long post went.. it meant to say I'm considering using my wildcard during the international break..

      • Aftermath
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Pick one:
        A. Aurier-> Cresswell
        B. Hayden-> Saka
        C. Save ft and head into IB with two fts

        Team:
        Heaton
        TAA Otamendi Lundstram
        Son Mahrez Yarmolenko
        Auba(C) Vardy Tammy

        Button Rico Aurier Hayden

        1ft,0.1itb

      • Al-Chemy
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Reckon this is worth -8?
        Aurier to Tomori
        KDB to Sterling

        Otherwise I'm playing with 10, with Aguero and Son potentially being benched

      • Tinmen
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Folks, I’ve narrowed it down, sort of lol
        1ft which one?

        Heaton
        Trent Tomori Launstrum Digne
        Sterling Mount Son KDB
        Aguero Pukki
        Button Greenwood Dend Rico

        A) Dend to Saka and bench KDB
        B) KDB and Greenwood to Yarmolenko and Abraham -4

      • FCSB
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Got KDB for 9.5, do I:

        1. KDB >> Mahrez
        2. Save, play Rico

        Thanks

        1. Glokollur nr.1
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          ugh same thing for me.
          ft or -4 for swapping kdb?

        2. A Fat Spanish Waiter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          I have a similar issue. Probably 2.

      • Absolutely Flabulous
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        I usually avoid taking hits at all costs, but on this one occasion is the following a smart move?

        De Bruyne and Pukki OUT
        Yarmolenko and Aubameyang IN

        Can’t bare to leave £10m rotting on my bench.

        1. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Pukki out this week is asking for trouble

        2. Gudjohnsen
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Pukki out for a hit is a risk

      • Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Oh great, is that Cantwell definitely out?

        Looks like i’ll be taking a hit then.

        1. Fpl Richie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Sounds more like a 50-50

          1. Salah’s Sonnet
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            Still i can’t take the risk

        2. dbeck
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          whats the hit?

          1. Salah’s Sonnet
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            Not sure yet, maybe KDB > Sterling/Mahrez and Son to Yarmolenko

        3. Hart-ake
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          A minor doubt.

        4. tucaoneo
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Read he had a problem midweek but trained as normal in the last session. I'm starting him.

          1. Salah’s Sonnet
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            It’s a risk i can’t take

      • Bruno Bruno!!
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        would you do KDB -> Mahrez this GW if you could get KDB back in using 1 FT ?

        1. dbeck
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          If i have 2ft and nothing else pressing, I would do KDB to Mahrez and still have 2ft over the IB

      • Glokollur nr.1
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        replacing KDB, for a hit?

        Son or Mahrez?

        1. No_Mo_Salah?
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Mahrez

        2. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Mahrez - high risk though

      • shaz826
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Pope
        TAA, Zinch*, Lundstrum
        Salah, Sterling(Captain), KDB*, Cantwell*
        Josh King, Pukki, Abraham

        Bench: Button, Ceballos, Soyuncu, Kelly

        Already transferred barnes out to Josh King before I had heard the KDB news and have already played wildcard

        Thinking of taking KDB out for Mahrez/Yarmalenko this week for -4 and Salah or Sterling for Son & vardy for Pukki after international break for -4

        Any thoughts?

        1. dbeck
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          I wouldnt do another move

          1. shaz826
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            Do you think it would be worth playing Ceballos instead of kdb cause he played a full 90 mins on Thursday so not sure if he will start this weekend? and more than likely soyuncu and Kelly wont be keeping any clean sheets

      • KINGS
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        What are Kun owners going to do? Keep or Sell?

        1. No_Mo_Salah?
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Keeping and hoping he starts!

        2. Now I'm Panicking
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Surely not selling this week

        3. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Got to keep this week

        4. SH
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Keeping and probably captaining him every week

        5. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Tempted to sell for Auba

      • Karan14
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Seems very unlikely to me that Cantwell would be risked if he had an hamstring problem.

        1. No_Mo_Salah?
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Think they might. They need a win and its Aston Villa at home... 2 weeks for him to rest after.

          1. Karan14
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            He's been called up for England U21's so that won't be possible if he starts tomorrow.

        2. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          What if he has a problem that is no longer a problem on Saturday?

          1. Baps hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            He has been training already imo

        3. A Fat Spanish Waiter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Trained today though. Tough call

      • AmeliesDad
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        2 FT but unsure where to go. A few sideway moves so who is most urgent to remove...

        Pope
        Maitland-Niles, van Dijk, Robertson, Lundstram
        Son, Sterling, Salah, Mount
        Pukki, Abraham
        Heaton, Greenwood, Dendoncker, Lascelles

        1. AmeliesDad
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Maybe Lascelles -> Tomori

        2. Glokollur nr.1
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          maitland-niles out with bellerin coming back

          1. AmeliesDad
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            thanks

      • michudagawd
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Pope
        Lundstram Mings Otamendi Burn
        Salah Cantwell Sterling
        Auba Pukki Haller

        Button - Nakamba Söyüncü KDB*

        1 FT, 0.7 itb

        Anyone wanna talk me out of Burn + Haller ➡ Tomori + Abraham for a -4?

        1. Ambrosiana Inter
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Chelsea will struggle

          1. michudagawd
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            You think so? Southampton aren’t exactly airtight at the back.

            1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
              • 12 Years
              4 years, 5 months ago

              yeah but think chelsea will concede too

              1. michudagawd
                • 11 Years
                4 years, 5 months ago

                They may well do but Tomori looks good for the foreseeable with his fixtures coming up. Debating whether to get rid of Haller is the only thing I’m mulling over at the minute.

        2. A Fat Spanish Waiter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          what about just doing Haller to Abraham? Chelsea may indeed concede, but they are sure to score this week, and next.

          1. michudagawd
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            Yeah not a bad shout. I can always get Tomori in next gameweek.

      • Ambrosiana Inter
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Big opportunity to make up points, since this is a point game I m gonna bank 0.2 and sell kdb...
        Kdb to Salah (C)
        And
        Son to Lanzini

        1. fr3d
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Kane (c)

          1. Ambrosiana Inter
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            I am on him atm

            1. fr3d
              • 6 Years
              4 years, 5 months ago

              I know

              1. Ambrosiana Inter
                • 6 Years
                4 years, 5 months ago

                🙂

        2. Eleven Hag
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Is lanzini back for this GW?

          1. Ambrosiana Inter
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            Would think so, played 24 mis last week

      • Gooner Kebab
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Lol at those who swapped Sterling for KDB

        1. Ambrosiana Inter
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Yup

      • Barca_Rover
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Bring in nDombele or yArmolenko ?

        1. Ambrosiana Inter
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Y

          1. Ambrosiana Inter
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            No context

            1. Barca_Rover
              • 8 Years
              4 years, 5 months ago

              trying to sell KDB and release funds for Auba

        2. fr3d
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          nO

      • andres
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Pope
        TAA Pieters Lund
        KDB Sterling Mount Cantwell
        Kun Tammy Pukki

        Ceballos, Kelly, Soy, 1FT, 2.9M

        A kdb to salah
        B kdb, ceballos => son, mahrez (-4)
        C kdb, ceballos => mane, yarmo/mcginn (-4)

        1. Gooner Kebab
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          B

        2. linkafu
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          A or C but I don't like -4

      • Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Bilva feels like a filthy differential if you are brave or WCarding next week

      • Hart-ake
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        What to do here? May be relying on Kelly if Cantwell doesn't play. Save?

        Pope (Button)
        TAA Otamendi Lundstram Tomori (Kelly)
        Sterling Salah Mount Cantwell (KDB)
        Abraham Pukki (Greenwood)

        1. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          I’d save - it’s tricky because your other 2 subs Kelly & Greenwood are so weak / cheap you’ve got nowhere up go price wise in terms of transferring one to a useful starter for this week

          1. Hart-ake
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            Kelly should play at least but I'm not expecting anything more than 2 points.

      • Coys96
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        1FT, do I?

        A. Get Zinc out (probs to Tomori)
        B. Dendoncker -> Yarmolenko (have Cantwell so he wouldn't have to start)
        C. Save

      • Cto
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        i don’t get it... why would Poch even think about resting Son for this game?

        1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          did he said it? not in general where son might play

        2. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          What makes you think that he has thought about it?!?

      • fc_skrald
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Hmm want to change KDB but I guess two free transfers over the international break is worth more?

        1. Ambrosiana Inter
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          More then the points?

          1. fc_skrald
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            Points win of couse - but Tomori or Rico could do the job for me...

      • Arsenal97
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        My wildcard team :
        Pope
        TAA Perreira Otamendi
        Sterling KDB Mount Yarmolenko
        Auba Abraham Wilson
        Sub: Button Lundstram Rico Cantwell

        Thoughts on the team ?

        1. Hits from the Bong
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Nice. You could choose McGovern as back up keeper as he’s playing at the moment. Likewise Son for KDB as a placeholder

          1. Arsenal97
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            I didn't want to lose money on KDB
            I tottaly forget about McGovern thnx

      • NorwichCityLad
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        For -4 are these decent transfer
        Kdb,barnes > aguero,mcginn

        1. Hits from the Bong
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Yes

        2. Alonso The Great Midfielder
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          i go for auba because aguero is risky transfer for now

          1. Coys96
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 5 months ago

            This. And I'd rather have Yarm over McGinn if not owned

            1. NorwichCityLad
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 5 months ago

              Thanks

      • Wally711
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        This is a boring question but who to play greenwood or dendo? KDB injury and doing an early transfer screwed me.

        1. Coys96
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Greenwood

      • Philip Jones's Diary
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        When will we find out about the Bernardo ban?

        1. Now I'm Panicking
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Has until the 9th to appeal, so guessing a decision will be made one way or another during the IB.