Spot the Differential

Man City injuries could allow Mahrez to reward Fantasy owners

With many of the highly-owned players failing to deliver in recent weeks, differentials are becoming more and more important to Fantasy Premier League managers.

In Gameweek 7, the top 10 points-scorers all had single-digit ownership levels, proving that many of this season’s top performers are still hiding away.

It was another good week for this regular column though. Andriy Yarmolenko (£6.0m) and Chris Wood (£6.2m) lived up to their billing by registering a goal each.

Let’s hope for more of the same this weekend. Here are three exciting players owned by 5% or less ahead of Gameweek 8.

Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez has been in exceptional form recently

Price: £8.6m 

Ownership: 4.9% 

GW8 Opponent: Wolves (H)

A player averaging 6.4 points per game is always hard to ignore in FPL, although Riyad Mahrez (£8.6m) is much more of a hidden gem right now because he plays for Manchester City.

Had it not been for their ‘Pep Roulette’ rotation system, the former Leicester man probably would have been an essential asset weeks ago.

However, a unique opportunity has emerged which makes Mahrez a viable option, at least for now. 

With fitness concerns over Kevin de Bruyne this weekend and the risk of Bernardo Silva missing out (perhaps long-term), Mahrez seems likely to be involved from the start against Wolves.

Despite only starting four league games since August, he has registered two goals and five assists – one every 57 minutes. 

Mahrez has the same amount of FPL points as Sadio Mané despite offering a saving of £3.0m, which shows how appealing his points per million is.

The Algerian’s underlying statistics almost seem too good to be true and some may say that they are skewed. But form is all that matters to me. 

Over the last two Gameweeks, among all midfielders, Mahrez has the most number of touches in the opponents’ half (127) and the most number of touches in the final third (90). 

For good measure, he’s also had 9 attempts on goal during the same period – only John McGinn has had more. That in itself speaks volumes and boosts his credibility.

Man City are due to face a potentially fatigued Wolves team this weekend that lacks the squad depth to effectively manage their Europa League and Premier League commitments. If Mahrez starts, it would be hard to say he won’t be involved in the goals.

Andriy Yarmolenko

Yarmolenko has been in good form recently and earns a recall to the differentials picks

Price: £6.0m

Ownership: 4.0%

GW8 Opponent: Crystal Palace (H)

For this first time this season, I’ve decided to repurpose one of my picks from last week. 

Yarmolenko’s wnership has increased by 2.7% but is thankfully still below the 5% threshold and capable of propelling his owners up the rankings.

The West Ham midfielder has now registered three goals in his last four league games. For all midfielders priced at £6.5m or less he currently has the best points per game average (5.5). 

Also, during the last two Gameweeks, Yarmolenko has registered the joint-fifth most amount of touches in the final third among all midfielders (54). 

This Michu-esque form shows that he’s getting in the right advanced areas and is being rewarded for his efforts.

It is clear that Yarmolenko’s minutes were being managed in August and early September, to ease him back in after his long injury lay off but he’s now beginning to play the entirety of games. 

For this campaign, he is currently averaging a goal for every 125 minutes played, which is very respectable for a budget midfielder. 

Provided he stays fit and can maintain good performance levels he could end up with at least a dozen goals by the end of the season. 

West Ham’s next opponents are Crystal Palace. The Hammers have scored 10 goals in their last five matches against the Eagles and I expect more from them with Yarmolenko at the helm.

Oli McBurnie 

McBurnie will probably enjoy playing against Watford’s poor defence

Price: £5.9m

Ownership: 0.1% 

GW8 Opponent: Watford (A)

If you’re short on cash up top and are willing to take a substantial risk on an uber-differential then look no further than Oliver McBurnie (£5.9m). 

The Sheffield United forward has started four consecutive Premier League games for his team and, since Gameweek 6, among players priced at £6.0m or less, he has the joint-third highest number of shots on goal.

That period has pitted the Blades against Everton and Liverpool, so there’s every reason to believe he can continue to provide threat against Watford.

 Of course, it’s a concern that he’s only scored one Premier League goal during his entire career, which includes an additional 16 appearances for Swansea City. 

But last season he demonstrated his ability to find the net regularly and seems to be gradually adapting to life as a top-flight centre-forward.

In the Premier League, he clearly won’t match his goal tally from last season but I expect him to gradually improve by each Gameweek. 

Vicarage Road on Saturday could serve as an ideal opportunity for him. The Hornets have been completely woeful recently, even after their managerial change. 

McBurnie and Sheffield United could cause them more trouble after having impressed against some of the league’s more established teams since Gameweek 1.

Lessons Learned from Gameweek 7

911 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Taking one of my risks out. Preference?
    A. KDB to Mahrez/Son/Silva
    B. Cantwell to Yarmolenko

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      A with Son

      1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        im not sure about son after poch said about resting player

      2. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Son could be rested both this week and after the IB. I'm sure at least 1 Moura gets a game

        1. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Or Ali /Lamela

    3. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      A - Son

    4. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Should say I may be wildcarding after this week, so not fussed about return moves too much.

      1. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Mahrez if it's a one week punt like me.

        I wouldn't if you want KDB back next week tho. That's a bit daft

  2. Twisted Saltergater
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Starting to realise that my gut is a bit high maintenance. It doesn't want to dine out on freebies but instead goes for the -8 option.

    Pope
    TAA ■ Otamendi ■ Tomori
    Salah ■ Sterling ■ Mount ■ Saka
    Aguero ■ Abraham ■ Pukki

    Adrian ■ Lundstram ■ Cantwell ■ Dunk

    1. Gooner Kebab
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Nice team, a LEI player would make this even better.

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        I had Tielemans last week. The only Leicester mid not to register any attacking return - including Ndidi - I kid you not.

        Might be able to work one in if I move Aguero out for Aubameyang in a couple of weeks.

    2. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      -8 to bench Lundstram? 😮

      Poor Aurier!

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Everyone should captain Lundstram. He's one for another haul on my bench 🙂

        1. Rainer
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          😆

    3. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      You could easily make 8 points back. Lundy on bench where he belongs. Good team

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        thanks Pumpkin, fingers crossed

  3. Eastman
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    AWB > Tomori or Lundstram?

    1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      tomori got better fixtures

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Tomori, lundy at 4.5 now doesn't appeal to me as much

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Tomori

    4. Murder On Zidanesfloor
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Lundy. Attacking mid

  4. Daghe Munegu
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Play

    A: Guendouzi
    B: Rico
    C: Pukki or Wilson -4

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Wilson

    2. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Wilson

  5. Hybrid.power
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Pointless post: I'm .1 off doing Dendocker to Yarmolenko for free....that's the sort of thing that really twists my nipples.

    1. Gooner Kebab
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      balls

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Especially when he rose 0.1m this week.

      How about a punt on Saka?

      1. Hybrid.power
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        I haven't heard of him until now. Any use?

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          By no means nailed so you'd probably be better served with McGinn.

  6. Tempestic
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Is Tomori likely to keep his place medium to long term?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Depends on form but at the moment he's Frank's 1st or 2nd choice CB (in his words).

      1. Tempestic
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Oh I suppose its when Rudiger is back that he'll become a rotation risk

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 5 months ago

          Yep, you'd think Rudiger is first choice.

    2. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Frank says he is, but there are a lot of injuries at the bank for Chelsea ATM.

      1. Tempestic
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Tbf I think hes better than Zouma and Christensen no?

  7. Murder On Zidanesfloor
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Greenwood likely to start?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Rashford should start no?

    2. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      As likely as the last 7 weeks.

  8. Alonso The Great Midfielder
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Is otamendi in a risk when stone come back after ib?

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Yes, another defensive liability wont help City.

    2. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      No

  9. fr3d
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    If Pukki blanks tomorrow. Do you keep him?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      might move him on to Vardy

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      If he can't score at home then next week away is a write off

    3. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Depends on the rest of your team and what needs changed. I will keep Pukki.

    4. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      instant sell

    5. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      if cant score at home against Aston villa then think need to ship out

    6. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Probably as will have to remove one of my other players that are bound to get injured or sent off instead.

    7. JohnBlack
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Seasonkeeper

    8. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I'm getting rid for Wilson either way next week

    9. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Out on wc next week for Wilson I think..

  10. Surfeit of Lampteys
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Six flags in my squad yay. Gonna be a rollercoaster week!

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Nice!

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Ouch

      1. Surfeit of Lampteys
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Ikr. 4 red, one orange, one yellow. Teams looking like a shelf full of sunny delight.

  11. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Speaking at his pre-match press conference, Guardiola said: “Tomorrow he is not fit. After the international break he will be ready. It is not a big problem.”

    How are people getting “Sell KDB” from this?

    Does no one have a bench anymore??

    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      My bench is cack, but I'm not selling KDB. He's a season keeper barring long term injuries.

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Exactly. I assume people have some value in him from price rises as well, getting rid for one GW is crazy

      1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        This it depends on value. You can buy him back fairly quickly...

    3. Manani
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I assume a lot like me have greenwood and dendocker, so not ideal

    4. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Bench players aren't great for some.

      In my case it's Dendoncker or AMN or Soyuncu. You'd figure Mahrez would score considerably more than any of those 3, so it becomes a case of either keeping a FT and KdB on bench and getting 1 or 2 points from your autosub or get Mahrez and potentially double digit points from him this weekend.

      The fact that KdB could drop over the next 2 weeks has to factor into it too.

      I'm considering the move myself for free as I need points this week.

  12. Pukki Blinders
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Cantwell losing his place when Hernandez comes back? Would you get rid on a WC next week?

    1. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I probably would if funds were needed yes - Norwich supporting friends say he could do with a rest or rotation

    2. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Ooh, this is a good point...

  13. yakirh
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Will Saka start?

    1. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Once not injured, he should.

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Saka not Sakho lol

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      He was left out of the EL squad, so here's hoping.

    3. SH
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      After that performance against ManUtd, he should.

  14. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Feel a bit sick doing KDB/TAA to Sterling/Tomori ... just don't think Liverpool look at it defensively and going without Sterling makes me sicker still...

  15. The Train Driver
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Start Cantwell and risk few minutes cameo or start Montoya?

  16. Manani
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    dendocker > Yarmelenko for -4
    or
    play greenwood

    if I do the transfer, I can't do Haller > Abraham after IB

    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Greenwood will get nothing again. I'd do the swap.

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Being stuck on double WHU doesn't sound good

  17. De Gea is GOAT
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Willing to take a hit this week to field 11. Which move would be best? Thanks all

    KDB to Mahrez (value ties up in De Groin)
    Hayden to Saka

    1. SH
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I did Hayden>Saka. Hayden on a 3 match ban, KDB is likely be back after one gw

      1. De Gea is GOAT
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Yep done it also. Gl to us 🙂

  18. Stimps
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Will Bernard Silva play this weekend? When would he get banned if he does?

    1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I think he does which makes the Mahrez punt all the more risky.

    2. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      i read somewhere that he is only getting 3 banned if he plead guilty and maybe starting at gw9

    3. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Any ban would be after appeal deadline has passed which is next week

  19. Lecky Legs FC
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    I'm gonna risk it a little this GW thoughts on Ceballos & KdB> Pepe & Yarmolenko for free? I bank 0.8 and get Kev back in after IB if fully fit?

    1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I have to say that Pepe looked just terrible last week.

      1. Lecky Legs FC
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        He did but that was against a stubborn United away he's still adjusting to the pace and quality of the league like

  20. Coys96
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    1FT, do I:

    A. Get Zinc out (probs to Tomori)
    B. Dendoncker -> Yarmolenko (have Cantwell so he wouldn't have to start)
    C. Save

    1. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      probably B

  21. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Which option?

    A. KdB to Mahrez (play Rico)
    B. KdB and Greenwood to Yarmo and Tammy (bench Rico)

    Thanks

    1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      b if you want a secure starting player

    2. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      B looks good for one week, but that's a difficult switch to unwind for a one week punt.

      1. TeddiPonza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Still have wildcard

  22. KingOllie
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Honestly, all of you are transfering out the best value player in the game for a 1 week punt? Transfers are worth 4 points, so you need your punt to score atleast 10 to break even (assuming u want KDB back after the IB)

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Didn't want to sell KdB ideally, but is Pep going to be more cautious with his pitch time following another injury?

      Have sold for Sterling.

      1. KingOllie
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        I think selling for sterling is OK if you plan to only go with 1 city mid.

        Hmm i doubt it, he seems to play whenever fit - they have noone else that can really fill his role like he does

      2. Pukki Blinders
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        I doubt he'll be more cautious, people said that after he returned from his long spell on the sidelines and has played mostly full games since.

    2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Might get limited minutes v Palace away who they struggled with last time out.Every team has a different circumstance with benches etc...

      1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Cantwell flagged is a key issue

    3. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      It's an interesting point you raise. However, if you have 2 transfers and nothing else appeals, then why not?

  23. Jubilanus / BSC Small Boys …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    What happened to Emerys conference? Was scheduled for 2pm, and nothing on the tweets yet? But we have about a dozen Farke updates! Its nearly 5pm and there is no Arsenal team news on the site at all. WTF?!

    1. KingOllie
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Good Ebening

    2. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      He walked out at 2.01pm when asked why Pepe has been so bad

    3. Rainer
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      The Thursday night boys don't usually hold a press conference.

    4. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Farke has a dozen out

  24. sirmorbach
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Saving my FT. Safe to keep Cantwell having Maguire/Lundstram (who?) as first sub?

  25. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    KDB and Aurier to Mahrez and Otamendi -4?

    Current team

    Pope
    TAA Tomori xxx
    Salah Mount Son xxx
    Vardy Abraham Haller

    Button Cantwell* Soyuncu Hanley*

  26. Weasel Boy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Got KDB and Cantwell
    My bench is Guilbert Rico Dendonc.

    Should I sell KDB for Mahrez?

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      No!

    2. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    3. KingOllie
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      Nope, Guilbert is a good pick this week.

      And id rather play Rico for 1 week than lose KDB

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        He can just reverse the transfer next time, no one wants 10m on the bench

    4. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I'd move one on yes - anything in the bank?

      1. Weasel Boy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 5 months ago

        Zilch in the bank.
        Cant even buy KDB back unless he drops in price.

    5. Boss Hogg
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I would.
      He might be down to 9.8 again by the time he plays next so easy enough to get him back later.

  27. Pukki Blinders
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Who to play?
    A) Mings (with Heaton)
    B) Greenwood
    C) Montoya

  28. payetisgod
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Seen one or two concerns around mount looking tired/ potentially rested... any more savy people within the community know if there is any substance to this or just scare mongering ha!

  29. zelio78
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    A) Mane and Kun

    Or

    B) Salah and Auba

    I own Sterling and plan to captain him.

    Thanks

    1. Boss Hogg
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I like b

  30. Boss Hogg
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 5 months ago

    Is this worth -8 points?

    KdB, Barnes and Aurier OUT
    Yarmolenko, Auba, and Fredericks (or another 4.5m def) IN

    ???

    1. zelio78
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 5 months ago

      I had a similar issue and then pressed the WC button.