Learning from the Great and the Good – Pro Pundits Special

“Mama always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.”

This FPL season has been very much like a box of chocolates in its unpredictability, although most of the gameweeks seem to have left a bitter taste in the mouth.

In order to guide us through these confectionery conundrums the FF Scout team have identified Pro Pundits to provide advice and wisdom to ensure we all have a sweet finish to our seasons.

It has not gone unnoticed by this writer that they have borrowed the talents of Az and Andy from The Great and The Good but what of these other Pro Pundits? The Pro Pundits are FPL Hints, Simon March, Tom Freeman, Sam Bonfield, Holly Shand, Zophar, Luke and Lateriser.

Therefore, I have decided to apply my own quality control on these new-ish faces and used the power of The Great and The Good spreadsheet to assess their season to date to understand what we might hope to learn from them.

Overall Performance

First, let’s look at performance to date and the table above shows how they compare up to gameweek 12 against The Great and The Good. The girls go “together like peas and carrots” as Sam Bonfield’s strong start to the season means she is only one point behind Jules Breach who has led The Great and The Good since gameweek 6.

So, what has been the secret of Sam’s success? Kevin de Bruyne has been a key factor and like Jules Breach she has been without Sterling all season preferring Salah and of course Kane to be her premiums of choice. This mixture has proved effective to this point, but one wonders whether Mane will find a way into her affections over the coming weeks.

Sam also had Lundstram from the start, brought in Abraham as his fixtures turned, and her decision on when to leave a party is outstanding as she gracefully shifted from Pukki to Vardy in time for the 9-0 mauling of Southampton.

FPL Hints has had the most turbulent of seasons, Ash was sitting pretty in gameweek 2 at 120,000 but the wheels fell off in gameweek 4 as he scored only 29 points (after a 4 point hit) against an average of 57 points which saw a drop of 1.4 million places, his failing was the lack of De Bruyne, Aguero or Alexander-Arnold plus the added sting of a Zouma own goal.

He took a proactive response with a wildcard in gameweek 5 to bring in those aforementioned players and then played his triple captain chip on Aguero in gameweek 6 which netted him 27 points.

With four consecutive green arrows he has now moved back to a respectable 471,000 and going into the International break he surely will finally give up on Aguero and bring in some of the Liverpool attack?

Transfers and Hits

As you can see in the previous table there are very different approaches to transfers and hits, Zophar has only made nine transfers all season, the lowest of all the managers.

He also provides an example of a well-played wildcard as whilst the immediate results in gameweek nine were poor he has since climbed 820,000 places by shifting his emphasis from big at the back to big in the middle.

Obviously, Luke was told to “run, Luke! run” as he can’t seem to stop, having made 21 transfers and taken 11 hits so far this season.

Az may want to have a quiet word with his fellow Top Gun and ask him to step away from the keyboard as he has also already played his triple captain chip with Sterling for a measly 3 points, this high-risk strategy sees him lurking round the bottom of the combined table.

Having said all that, he has gained over 750,000 places in the last two weeks with his -8 hit for Tomori and Vardy paying off in gameweek 12, maybe there is method in his maverick madness.

Simon March has been much more patient and has yet to take a hit, his ability to stand still whilst others don’t has proved wise particularly with his persistence with Wilson and Haller at the start of the season.

Although perhaps it held him back from going with Vardy and De Bruyne earlier than optimum, however he has sat consistently around the 300,000 to 350,000 since gameweek six and looks well set for the next few weeks, his purchase of Ings also caught my attention.

One person it may be worth taking transfer tips from is Lateriser, his calculated upside chasing approach makes him the most successful in terms of immediate points with 68 gained from his moves to date.

He is also the only manager who has not fallen outside the top 600,000 and sits at 45,000 and his strategy of switching the big hitters according to fixtures appears to be working with his City triple becoming just Sterling last time round as Mané/Vardy both scored on their debuts for him.

Captain Picks

This is where Tom Freeman comes into his own with a 14.3 average for his captain picks higher than all of the other Pro Pundits and The Great and The Good, this has been one of the contributing factors to his current 20,000 OR.

Now “I’m not a smart man” but I know a good FPL manager when I see one and with his track record, I don’t think this will be the highest rank he’ll achieve this season even if he does have Walcott in his squad.

He has also remained true to his word from his “Meet the Manager” interview with Joe and ignored value with his squad worth a mere 101.4 proving price does not always equal points.

Holly Shand has not been so fortunate with her captain picks with an average of 9.5 points, since a good start in gameweek 1 her armband pick had failed to score until game week 10.

However, Vardy has now been drafted into her squad and since his arrival in gameweek 11 she has had two green arrows to bring inside the top 750,000. Also, worth noting the gap between top and bottom is very small with only 80 points between Holly and Jules at the top of the table so plenty of opportunity to rise up the rankings.

Conclusion

Going back to Forrest Gump and his box of chocolates I think that is also a fair way to describe the Pro Pundits to this point each with their own flavour and approach to game. I will certainly be paying more attention to Lateriser’s transfer plans, Tom Freeman’s captaincy choice and trying to match some of Simon March’s patience in the coming weeks.

Ultimately though FPL is a pick and mix and “you have to do the best with what God gave” and play your own way but this little delve into the Pro Pundits collective psyches has given me ideas to consider whether that be to jump more merrily between big hitters, be more carefree with my hits, not give a jot about team value and even dare to consider bringing Danny Ings back into my squad.

The Great and The Good will be back next week but I will continue to scout the Pro Pundits progress intermittently during the season to see if they are worth of The Great and The Good name when the transfer window opens at the end of the season.

Anyway, that’s all from me for now and remember don’t have nightmares.

For those effected by any of the topics raised in the above article they can find me on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Greyhead19