What to expect from the best teams

Immanuel Kant was a real pissant who was very rarely stable, I wouldn't pay any attention to what he says.

:). Good piece on the xG family though. The Opta on here makes FFS a steal.

No problem, but still a great article.

But it isn't just this season.

Brendan Rodgers was appointed Leicester manager on 26th February 2019.
Before his appointment, Jamie Vardy had scored 8 goals in 23 Premier League matches.
From 26th February on he scored another 10 goals in 11 Premier League matches.
And this season he has already scored 11 goals in 12 Premier League matches.

I don't know what his xG was for his last 11 Premier League matches last season, but his goal scoring rate since Brendan's appointment looks very much sustainable!

And who can forget his scoring in 9 PL matches in a row in 2015/16, a record for a single season (Ruud van Nistelrooy's 10 in a row were spread over 2 seasons)?

Just checked - His xG for GWs 28 to 38 last season was 6.62, giving an xG Delta of +3.38 in only 11 GWs.
This season so far he has an xG of 4.75 and an xG Delta of +6.25 in 12 GWs.

So compared to the end of last season, his xG has dropped and his xG Delta has increased, but his Goals total has hardly changed.

And another factor that has helped to improve his sharpness compared with previous seasons is that he retired from international football after the 2018 World Cup.

So when it comes to Jamie Vardy, it's best to ignore his xG and xG Delta and just enjoy the goals!

I agree, understanding what the stat is telling you - and what coaches and managers are doing - is really important.

As mentioned in the article, managers recognise who their best finishers are and will develop tactics to make sure those players get chances that take advantage of their abilities. So as you rightly point out with Mané he's very good with his head, therefore it makes sense to have full/wingbacks who can deliver a great cross. Headers are statistically a difficult chance to score for the average player, and xG records if the shot was a header or not. This is one reason why Mané has improved his xG Delta over last season and this season - because he scores goals with his head.

So when you find something interesting in the stats, work out what it is reporting - what's the story? what's the reason it's happening?

The only slight problem I have with xG is that it can be hard to grasp what it is telling you because it's not obvious to everyone what factors produce the numbers. And how these different factors are weighted? And what factors are not included?

If a stat is going to be useful you need to understand exactly what it is telling you.

I find it fairly useful, I have some idea of what it is saying - Bowstring wrote two very interesting articles on the subject in the summer https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/06/14/expected-goals-part-one-what-is-xg-and-how-is-it-measured/ & https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/06/18/expected-goals-part-two-the-pros-and-cons-for-fpl/

In my opinion Mané's improved xG Delta is sustainable, while Vardy's is not. And that's not to say he and Leicester won't continue to exceed their xG - Rodgers is clearly a good manager who has developed excellent tactics for his players - but it won't continue at the level it is now. If Leicester were to continue exceeding their xG at the same rate, they would have an xG Delta of +41.10 at the end of the season. Which would be unheard of.

It might happen that Leicester continue scoring at the rate they are currently but improve their xG, therefore reducing their xG Delta. That is possible. In relation to that, Leicester's non-shot xG could offer some clues. Expected goals quantifies the value of shots, but not every brilliant attack results in an attempt at goal. Non-shot xG gives a value to those attacks. This is also something the eye test can help with.

You also ask about penalties and set-pieces: penalties will certainly boost xG numbers. And penalty misses will have a negative impact on xG Delta. It's certainly something to keep in mind when looking at the stats, but I think it's a mistake to exclude penalties - we can't ignore the advantage penalty takers have. 

Hi Topmarx,

Spurs looks to have improved a lot instantly. People may think it’s about Mourinho, but it is more about Daniel Levy from my point of view. Sacking Poch is the absolute right decision. Poch was exceptional in previous years, but I find several of his comments highly questionable this year. Once he said he could leave Spurs if they won CL. It’s no difference to say he wanted to leave his job. Making such comments publicly was a very direct way to alert other teams to lure him away. Another time he said he didn’t know how to motivate his squad anymore. These kind of comments and attitude will act like a toxin, damage the team and induce negativism to the players. So for me, he must go. This is evident by the fact that Spurs as a whole team without direction this season, and out of focus during many matches they’ve played.

Although I think many coaches could do a better job than the current Pochettino, Mourinho is still the best for Spurs under current circumstances. This squad is full of exceptional talents, at their prime age, keep the PL top 4 status for consecutive seasons, being a CL finalist, so step by step there is good possibility for this team to win trophy in near future. However, key players such as Eriksen wanted to leave. The floodgate will start. You could feel that Alli, Son, Kane, could also leave sooner or later. If this team has a high chance to undergo a wholesale change after one or two seasons no matter who is the coach, then deploying Mourinho to target for instant success is actually the best strategy. I guess Levy, as a businessman, would see things like this, and have made the decision right this time.

Psychologically, Mourinho also fits the needs of current Spurs. After the lose of CL, Poch comments meant that he doesn’t believe the team can win trophy, and the players may think the same. What they need now is a winning mentality, so the confidence and arrogance of Mou is something the players deadly need now. Kane, Alli and Eriksen have been hugely underperforming this season. The fit and threatening Moura is often overlooked or underused by Poch. Any new coach with the right skill to instill the confidence and belief back to them should be able to get them back to their normal performance level. That said, Mou just needs one conversation to make Alli back to his normal is very amazing.

So, I think simply the sacking of Poch will rejuvenate the potential of all Spurs assets. While the employment of Mou should make the attacking assets less appealing (but still far far better than Poch’s time) and make the budget friendly Aurier and Gazzaniga a steal. I won’t get too excited by the high scoring WHM and CL match. Every team could score three goals vs WHM as long as Roberto is the goalie, and CL is never a good indication of how PL works out.

To judge who is attractive in Spurs, my angle will be mostly on value on money. So I find Kane to be most attractive. Assume he plays his normal standard under Mou from season start, he is a 25/30 goal guy, so he should be worth 12.5m. Now he’s just 10.8m. Such undervaluation makes him the most attractive premium to own, better than not just Auba and Aguero, but also Sterling/Salah/Mane in terms of value.

If I compare the expected price and the current price of other players, I also find great value in Aurier (5.5/6m vs 4.8m), Moura (8m vs 7m), Alli (9m vs 8.4m) & Gazzaniga (5m vs 4.5m). About Son, he is the only one keep performing since season 16/17 and so the game hasn’t underpriced him this season. I think 9.7m is very close to how much he should be priced, so I don’t think he become more attractive by Poch-Mou change, but he was attractive to own as always.

Sorry for the long reply. But I just want to put more effort to write this reply, as a way to say thanks for your kind words when I was deeply sick.