Pro Pundits - Lateriser

How to stop the Mane ‘bad beat’ affecting your FPL season

Fantasy Premier League and the game of Texas Hold’ Em Poker have a lot of similarities.

You’re playing a game of cards throughout the night and there sometimes comes a hand where you have played everything correctly and, statistically, the odds are in your favour.

But then the least probable outcome happens. Your Sadio Mané (£12.5m) Triple Captain goes off injured early. That’s just how the dice rolls sometimes.

In Poker, we call it a ‘bad beat’. Over the course of the night, you have about 150-200 hands to play and there will be times when you do face a bad beat; a statistically unfavourable outcome (more than once in a lot of cases).

What separates the skilled players from the normal players in Poker though are the ones that temperamentally do not get affected by the statistically improbable ‘bad beat’ and continue hammering on with their strategy and trust. Despite a few setbacks along the way, they should end the night with a positive outcome with or without minor adjustments.

Keeping your temperament in control is incredibly important. It’s very easy to go ‘on tilt’ and make a series of low probability, irrational decisions after facing a bad beat.

I was talking to Trigg from the FFS boards while writing this in the morning and he had an important point to make here. As humans, we have a tendency to want instant gratification. We want our money (FPL points) back right away and that sometimes leads to poor decision making.

Clear your head and think again.

Mane, Abraham and Vardy injury updates ahead of FA Cup fourth round weekend

My good friend from the FFS boards, Prophet was telling me about a Serbian saying that when roughly translated in English goes like this – “Mom didn’t blame you for gambling but for trying to dig yourself out of the hole”.

The digging yourself out here means first putting in 100 Euros, then 500 and eventually your house. Tilts are dangerous and we should avoid them. The good Poker players are always looking to hunt and find which of their competitors are going ‘on tilt’ so that they can exploit them for some serious money.

Sometimes, you’re not really lucky throughout the night (or your FPL season) and other nights (seasons) you will be more fortunate than normal. Don’t pay attention to the improbable outcomes. We might not even know about it but we’ve probably made a few ‘statistically stupid’ decisions ourselves that have worked out for the best but it is human tendency to remember only the ones that don’t land on your side of the court.

FPL in some ways is similar. You’re making a skilled decision for an unknown outcome. Arguably, you have more control in Poker but there are similarities. There are factors you control and others you don’t. I wrote an article earlier this season that we are making about 140-150 FPL decisions a season:

  • Initial Team + 2 Wildcards + 1 Free Hit = 4 x 15 = 60
  • 38 Captains = 38
  • 3 Chips = 3
  • 35-55 Transfers throughout the season

Naturally, the FPL chips and your captaincies are your relatively high impact decisions. There is more at stake than normal. But they are still not going to decide your ‘entire’ season. All that has happened with some of the high impact decisions not coming your way is that you have received a ‘bad beat’ in a pot in which you have invested a lot of money. It happens. We’ve seen it over the years and if you want to develop as an FPL/ Poker player, don’t let this affect you, laugh it off, clear your head and continue doing what you are doing.

I’ve faced both sides of the coin very recently. The Jamie Vardy (£9.9m) to Sergio Aguero (£12.0m) captain move which worked out spectacularly (I’ve since sold the Manchester City forward and I’m plotting to get him back). But then, of course, I Triple Captained Mané and that turned out to be quite spectacular in its own right. Just goes to see that no one can really see the future and we’re all playing a game where we’re trying to put ourselves in an advantageous position week on week is all. 

Aguero asking the question of non-owners as De Bruyne ticks over

You have to think of your current position as the starting line. AK, another good friend of mine from the FFS boards says that in Poker, whatever be the case, you have to focus on salvaging your ‘current position’. There is a lot of the game left to be played.  Most of us still have about 50 to 60 decisions remaining in the season. That is about 40% of your decision-making pool. There is a lot you can do to affect that.

  • If you’re ranked at around the 1 million mark right now, 500k is just 37 points ahead. That’s one good differential captaincy in my eyes.
  • If you’re ranked at around 500k right now, 100k is just 59 points ahead right now.
  • If you’re ranked at 100k right now, 10k is only 55 points ahead.

If you look at the game this way, you realize that you can still have the rub of the green, have some decisions working in your way and who knows where you will land at the end of the season.

I’d recommend not looking back at what has already happened; instead, plot further ahead (or just take a break and enjoy the FA Cup football over the weekend) and salvage your current position.

The game is more fun that way. Make yourselves immune to the ‘bad beats’. If you’re far away from your actual goal, experiment with some new strategies for the next season. Re-condition your mind to the changing nature of FPL, or check if your current strategy will take you through this night (season) of FPL Poker and go past the bad beats.

Don’t forget it’s a game that we’re playing for fun based around a sport we watch for enjoyment (supposedly!). Don’t make it anything else. I’m currently sitting at an overall rank of 528 and I definitely intend on having fun with the privileged position I am in. Let’s see where it takes me.

Here’s to no more bad beats.

1,630 Comments Post a Comment
  1. michudagawd
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Norwood (Sharp)

  2. Skalla
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Boufal G
    Ings A

    VAR check...

  3. PL Ball
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What a cracking goal by Boufal.

  4. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Saints equaliser.
    Ings assist!

  5. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Boufal G
    Ings A

    Southampton 1-1 Tottenham

  6. Cto
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Spurs being spurs

  7. Baps hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Son looks decent again, even though tired.

    1. _Ninja_
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      And looks like an extra cup game to play now as well.

  8. Skalla
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Son takes a knock and looking tired guess my 1st sub is sorted 🙂

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Seven days to recover or have I missed something? The replay is after ten days?

      1. Skalla
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        No nothing missed he will play but Mahrez my 1st sub atm and with him looking tired it makes that swap easier for me.

  9. Scholes Out For Summer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Lo Celso looks great again... Potential mega differential option?

    1. ritzyd
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Moura is cheaper

    2. Skalla
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Potential yes but just need Jose to hint at him being nailed...

    3. JustPark
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Assist the assister?

  10. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Burnley vs Watford confirmed as the first PL game for GW31

    1. pulpy77
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Keeping Pope keeps on giving.

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Triple BUR and WAT on FH looking tasty 😉

      1. Klaren
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Very likely to be a boring match with one of them winning 1-0, no idea which one though.

  11. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    West Ham lose to WBA whose two central midfielders were Brunt (35) and Barry (38)

    1. Skalla
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Brunt is an FPL legend though so no shame in that!

    2. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Didn’t know Bareth Garry was still playing 🙂

    3. Jullepuu
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      West Ham to concede zero goals against Liverpool

      1. Skalla
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Will take that with two Ramsdale pen saves and hattricks by Noble and Haller 🙂

  12. Skalla
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Should have been red(2nd yellow) for Bertrand.

  13. SuperDan
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Pick one:
    A) Mahrez & Gomez
    B) Traore & Robbo

    1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

  14. Scholes Out For Summer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Son looks knackered

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Good one week rest

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Son is Jose’s donkey now kane is out. He will break him.

  15. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    If you want max BGW / DGW carnage, then you want Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd and Tottenham to win their R4 ties now.

    1. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd and Tottenham won't get a DGW34 if they are still in the FA Cup, what we need is a few of them to be knocked out/drawn against one another.

      1. diesel001
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        That is for the R5 and R6 draws though. First thing is to get them through.

  16. Coys96
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC draft? (1.9 itb)

    Henderson - Button
    Trent - Robertson - Baldock - Fernandez - Stephens
    Salah - KdB - Grealish - A.Traore - Fleck
    Aubameyang - Jimenez - Ings

    Leaving strong bench for BB. Not WC activated yet

    1. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lovely team but I would say that. That's near on exactly the same team I WC last night

  17. L'Aeroplanino
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Less time for FPL this season. Should I play my WC?

    Mccarthy
    VDD TAA Rico Aurier
    Martial Maddison Salah Alli
    Abraham Vardy
    4.0 Ings Douglas Luiz Kelly

    Thanks

    1. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      yes

    2. antis0cial
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No

    3. Skalla
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Depends on your rank, will say yes if chasing but that is still a good team.

    4. L'Aeroplanino
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks all

    5. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I would and i did last night

  18. Klaren
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Burnley - Watford (confirmed)
    Newcastle - Aston Villa
    Wolves - Bournemouth
    Norwich - Everton

    Based on likelihood of winning, these are the most likely fixtures in blank GW31. Unless teams face each other in 5th Round or there are some major upsets, looks like FH will be needed.

    Of course too early to tell though, we should have a good idea on Monday.

    1. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Both Burnley and West Ham being knocked out of the FA Cup today also means we now have our first confirmed game for BGW/DGW34 as they play each other that GW.

      1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Are you saying they play in the blank GW and also have a double in the DGW?

  19. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Team demolished using my wc , 11 changes

    Old

    Pope Button
    TAA Soyuncu Tomori Lundstram Hanley
    Salah Mane Grealish Moura Cantwell
    Vardy Ings Haller

    New

    Henderson McCarthy
    TAA VVD Stephens Lascelles Williams
    Salah KDB Son Grealish Perez
    Jiminez Ings DCL

    Thoughts?

    1. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Like it

    2. Skalla
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Looks good but I have Grealish ahead of Son atm so only one worth thinking about.

      1. Skalla
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Lol nvm see you still have Grealish... 🙂

    3. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Agree, nice WC team

    4. BrutalLogiC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah like it

    5. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      But what front 7 do you play each week gives you a slight headache.

  20. suddenorgan
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Am I right in thinking that I don't need to worry about Henderson not playing against Man Utd in GW31 as that's when everyone will be playing FH anyway? Think he's my Gazza replacement

    1. Skalla
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Well depends if you are also playing the FH chip 🙂

      1. suddenorgan
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        ha yes I guess I was wanting confirmation that that's looking like the best option

        1. suddenorgan
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          thinking potential minus point is that he won't play both games of a double

  21. FPL Bond @ Twitter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/en.as.com/en/2020/01/25/football/1579949621_458111.amp.html

    Mane out for atleast 3 weeks. So will miss the matches vs West Ham,Southampton & Norwich.

    1. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Is this reliable?

      1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yes. As per the scan results. Mass exodus incoming..

    2. Do I Not Like Orange
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Would leave me in a bit of a quandary. In theory that means he comes back just in time for WHU wat BOU, and there aren't any mid options that I really fancy in the meantime who I don't have already.

      1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        With the PL title virtually sealed now, Klopp will not rush him back even after he becomes fit with UCL also being there..

        1. Do I Not Like Orange
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          So who do you get when your midfield already has Salah/KDB/Grealish (Cantwell)? Sterling having a crap FPL season, Spurs looking insipid, Maddison off the boil & taking Mane out for Fleck/Traore just feels wrong 🙁

          1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Fleck & Traore are good options. WC is also an option.

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      If Salah pulls up in a shock 0-0 vs West Ham - does that leave the door ajar for city to claw back a few points from that massive gap?

      1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Punt on Aguero

    4. OleGGMU
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Id prefer to hold out for official word from pool or klopp himself before making any decisions to ship Mane, especially given the money investment.

      If , like me, you got him at 11.5 and have an sv on him of 11.9, at current price, it is a 0.5 you can never get back unless Mane dips below 12 which could happen but is doubtful to bank on should Salah drop in form

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Same as Vardy, Lundy & others

        1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Ya. But it's better to start with 11 starting players..

  22. Rhodes your boat
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Suggestions here please with 1FT 0.5itb willing to take a hit too to sort it out

    Guiata button
    Taa Lund soy Cathcart kelly
    Salah mane kdb moura dendo
    Vardy ings dcl

    1. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      If they are confirmed out Mane and Vardy to Son and Aguero.

      1. Rhodes your boat
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Good idea thanks, also moura to grealish making it a -8?

        1. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Its not confirmed till its confirmed by reliable sources 😀

          1. OleGGMU
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            THIS! Someone get Kloppie on the tele , anyone can send one of the pl today peeps to hunt him down

  23. bitm2007
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Both Burnley and West Ham being knocked out of the FA Cup today mean we now have our first confirmed game for BGW/DGW34, as they are scheduled to meet each other that GW. Burnley will also now have a game in BGW31 against Watford.

    1. Fred54
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      So I should keep Haller then?

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Wood time

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Tranmere will surely beat Man Utd to confirm a second GW34 fixture too

  24. Coys96
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    1. Robertson, Perez, A.Traore
    2. C.Taylor, Fleck, Son

    Have Trent, Salah, Jimenez. No Leicester or Spurs

    1. FPL Blow-In
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      1

    2. FPL Theorist
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      1

      LIV fixture run too good to not have 3

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      VVD, Fleck, Grealish imo (Tralee is good too though)

      VVD won’t get rotated at all & Robbo has just had two of his worst ever Liverpool performances back to back - still probably gets a haul vs West Ham mind you 🙂

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        *Traore

      2. Coys96
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Have Grealish

  25. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Bathsuayi G

    Hull 0-1 Chelsea

  26. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on the wildcard..?

    Henderson McCarthy

    TAA VVD Lascelles Lundstram Williams

    KDB Grealish Salah Traore Fleck

    Aguero Jiminez Wilson (placeholder for ings)

    0.2 ITB

    Thanks!..

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I think Taylor instead of Williams?

    2. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I like it. I'd probably switch Williams to Taylor as well though 🙂

    3. BrutalLogiC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Looks good

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks both 🙂

  27. Coys96
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Think I'll wildcard. Think I'll gain more points now than if I wait till later in season...

    Thoughts? (0.4m itb)

    Henderson
    Trent Robertson Fernandez
    KDB Salah Traore* Grealish Perez*
    Aubameyang Jimenez

    McCarthy Baldock Ings Cahill*

    I put stars by players I'm not sure I'll own yet. Thanks in advance 🙂

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      The earlier you wildcard, the more gameweeks over which it can gain you points - a well deployed earlier WC can dwarf a good DGW score simply by getting points little by little over 10-12 weeks

    2. BrutalLogiC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Thinking of it also, tough times recently

  28. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone looking at Baldock to join Henderson & Lundstram for this SHU fixture run? Or Fleck?

    1. BrutalLogiC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Fleck sure

    2. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      On wildcard considering Hendo, Stevens & Fleck triple up.

      1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Me too..

      2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Do you reckon the writing is on the wall for Lord Lundstram?

        I’m afraid I don’t think I could ever sell him considering his “”PP” on the transfer screen is still 4.0 🙁

        1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Unfortunately yes. Seems like the Lundy party is over now..

        2. Karan14
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          I personally don't think that he has lost his position in the starting 11 completely but I think it is possible that we might see a bit more rotation for him.

          It's more to do with my rank and the fact that he seems to be doing less attacking work now. Since his last attacking return his touches in the final 3rd and passes received in the final 3rd have almost halved per appearance when you compare it to the first 13 games.
          Also I think Stevens has been unlucky not to get more attacking returns.

    3. LSK
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I bought him in for Soyuncu. Don't have Henderson though so it's still just a double up rather than a treble.

    4. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maybe no Lundstram. He is not nailed now.Both Baldock & Fleck are good options..

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        It’ll be such a shame if Lundy loses his place

        I’ll still keep him in my squad even if he does though as a mark of respect

        Kind of like Milan retiring Baresi’s shirt number 🙂

        1. The Polymath
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Oh come on, no room for sentimentality in FPL. ;-D

          1. Shineonme
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Hahaha true though. I bought him @ 4.0 so I'll be gutted to sell him now but if he's not nailed he's got to go.

  29. Horlicks esq.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    2 weeks in a row.

    25+ points on the bench.

    Gross.

    1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Really unlucky mate..

  30. Karan14
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    When are the 4th round replays?