Pro Pundits - Lateriser

How to stop the Mane ‘bad beat’ affecting your FPL season

Fantasy Premier League and the game of Texas Hold’ Em Poker have a lot of similarities.

You’re playing a game of cards throughout the night and there sometimes comes a hand where you have played everything correctly and, statistically, the odds are in your favour.

But then the least probable outcome happens. Your Sadio Mané (£12.5m) Triple Captain goes off injured early. That’s just how the dice rolls sometimes.

In Poker, we call it a ‘bad beat’. Over the course of the night, you have about 150-200 hands to play and there will be times when you do face a bad beat; a statistically unfavourable outcome (more than once in a lot of cases).

What separates the skilled players from the normal players in Poker though are the ones that temperamentally do not get affected by the statistically improbable ‘bad beat’ and continue hammering on with their strategy and trust. Despite a few setbacks along the way, they should end the night with a positive outcome with or without minor adjustments.

Keeping your temperament in control is incredibly important. It’s very easy to go ‘on tilt’ and make a series of low probability, irrational decisions after facing a bad beat.

I was talking to Trigg from the FFS boards while writing this in the morning and he had an important point to make here. As humans, we have a tendency to want instant gratification. We want our money (FPL points) back right away and that sometimes leads to poor decision making.

Clear your head and think again.

Mane, Abraham and Vardy injury updates ahead of FA Cup fourth round weekend

My good friend from the FFS boards, Prophet was telling me about a Serbian saying that when roughly translated in English goes like this – “Mom didn’t blame you for gambling but for trying to dig yourself out of the hole”.

The digging yourself out here means first putting in 100 Euros, then 500 and eventually your house. Tilts are dangerous and we should avoid them. The good Poker players are always looking to hunt and find which of their competitors are going ‘on tilt’ so that they can exploit them for some serious money.

Sometimes, you’re not really lucky throughout the night (or your FPL season) and other nights (seasons) you will be more fortunate than normal. Don’t pay attention to the improbable outcomes. We might not even know about it but we’ve probably made a few ‘statistically stupid’ decisions ourselves that have worked out for the best but it is human tendency to remember only the ones that don’t land on your side of the court.

FPL in some ways is similar. You’re making a skilled decision for an unknown outcome. Arguably, you have more control in Poker but there are similarities. There are factors you control and others you don’t. I wrote an article earlier this season that we are making about 140-150 FPL decisions a season:

  • Initial Team + 2 Wildcards + 1 Free Hit = 4 x 15 = 60
  • 38 Captains = 38
  • 3 Chips = 3
  • 35-55 Transfers throughout the season

Naturally, the FPL chips and your captaincies are your relatively high impact decisions. There is more at stake than normal. But they are still not going to decide your ‘entire’ season. All that has happened with some of the high impact decisions not coming your way is that you have received a ‘bad beat’ in a pot in which you have invested a lot of money. It happens. We’ve seen it over the years and if you want to develop as an FPL/ Poker player, don’t let this affect you, laugh it off, clear your head and continue doing what you are doing.

I’ve faced both sides of the coin very recently. The Jamie Vardy (£9.9m) to Sergio Aguero (£12.0m) captain move which worked out spectacularly (I’ve since sold the Manchester City forward and I’m plotting to get him back). But then, of course, I Triple Captained Mané and that turned out to be quite spectacular in its own right. Just goes to see that no one can really see the future and we’re all playing a game where we’re trying to put ourselves in an advantageous position week on week is all. 

Aguero asking the question of non-owners as De Bruyne ticks over

You have to think of your current position as the starting line. AK, another good friend of mine from the FFS boards says that in Poker, whatever be the case, you have to focus on salvaging your ‘current position’. There is a lot of the game left to be played.  Most of us still have about 50 to 60 decisions remaining in the season. That is about 40% of your decision-making pool. There is a lot you can do to affect that.

  • If you’re ranked at around the 1 million mark right now, 500k is just 37 points ahead. That’s one good differential captaincy in my eyes.
  • If you’re ranked at around 500k right now, 100k is just 59 points ahead right now.
  • If you’re ranked at 100k right now, 10k is only 55 points ahead.

If you look at the game this way, you realize that you can still have the rub of the green, have some decisions working in your way and who knows where you will land at the end of the season.

I’d recommend not looking back at what has already happened; instead, plot further ahead (or just take a break and enjoy the FA Cup football over the weekend) and salvage your current position.

The game is more fun that way. Make yourselves immune to the ‘bad beats’. If you’re far away from your actual goal, experiment with some new strategies for the next season. Re-condition your mind to the changing nature of FPL, or check if your current strategy will take you through this night (season) of FPL Poker and go past the bad beats.

Don’t forget it’s a game that we’re playing for fun based around a sport we watch for enjoyment (supposedly!). Don’t make it anything else. I’m currently sitting at an overall rank of 528 and I definitely intend on having fun with the privileged position I am in. Let’s see where it takes me.

Here’s to no more bad beats.

1,630 Comments Post a Comment
  1. BrutalLogiC
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Would you wildcard this? Currently in free fall. Have 2 FT.

    Guaita McG
    TAA Soy Holgate Rico Lund
    MANE Salah KDB Cantwell Madd
    Maupay Vardy Ings

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not yet. If Mane and Vardy are out, then maybe.

    2. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Better to wildcard. Mane,Vardy,Cantwell & Lundstram may miss the next match.

    3. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Rank?

      1. BrutalLogiC
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Down to 50k

        Thought Mane was confirmed out no?

        1. Karan14
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          He's not confirmed out yet.

          You have a good rank don't make any hasty decisions. If I was in your position I would probably wait.

  2. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Vardy+Sidibe to Aguero+O’Connell?

    1. Throwback
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yep

  3. El Presidente
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Would you use your Wildcard to face possible absences of Vardy, MAne, Cantwell, Tammy and potentially Lundy´s or try to navigate through it maybe with 2 subs (and a hit)?

    1. BrutalLogiC
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I think it depends who else you have

      1. El Presidente
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Herderson;Rico,TAA,Lascelles,Williams;Salah,KDB,Martial;Ings

        Plus the ones mentioned

        1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Better to wildcard & set a good team looking at the next 4-5 fixtures.

          1. El Presidente
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Cheers! Probably will do if Vardy confirmed out (I´m sure Mané will be out)

  4. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Is going with Gomez instead of VVD and upgrading somewhere else better.?

    1. Klein
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Maybe but not sure how nailed gomez is with matip back.

    2. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      VVD will get those 15 pointers which will make him worth it over Gomez long term and he is 100% nailed.

  5. Klein
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    So lord is not the first choice anymore? Was important match today.

    1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lord most likely to get 1 pointers off the bench now..

    2. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Hopefully not 🙁

      Would you go O’Connell instead?

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Lots of fringe players in that side today

    4. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Only 5 of them were first team players

  6. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Seems like Lundstram is finished. Unlucky owners

  7. Wensink
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Have there been any definitive updates on the injuries to Mané or Vardy?

    1. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not yet, but its quite likely Mané will be out for 2-4 weeks. Vardy seems less serious but still probably miss GW25. Good thing is Rodgers will have a presser soon.

      1. Bury94
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        How do you possibly know this?

    2. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Mane out for three weeks vardy will be fit

      1. Holmes
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        *facepalm*

    3. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Rumored in FFS comments section that Mane is out for 3-4 weeks

  8. Eytexi
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Boring WC questions:
    Rico or a 4.1m def (Williams?)?
    Lundstram or a 4.5m def (Egan?)?

    Will wait to see SHU team in EFL cup.

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      You mean FA cup? Its already played.

      Go Rico, Lundstram for now.

  9. Strchld
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Would you WC this? Have 2FT so maybe mini-wc could save it. Problems are Mane, Vardy, Kiko and Lundstram. Also would like to get Maddison and maybe Soy out.

    McCarthy
    TAA - Soy - Kelly
    Salah - Mane - KdB - Maddison - Grealish
    Ings - Vardy

    (Button - Greenwood - Lundstram - Kiko)

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      2FTs and couple of hits will solve the problem. Sit tight for now.

    2. UTD - HATED, ADORED, BUT NE…
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not at all. Looks good. Couple of fts at most imo if Vardy and Mane are ruled out for a period (worst case scenario)

  10. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Hi....any thoughts on this wildcard please? Fixtures work to bench boost 26 - 29 to....

    Hendo McCarthy
    Taa robbo Stevens Stephens lascelles
    Salah kdb grealish traore fleck
    Auba jiminez maupay

    Maupay is a pre existing player and becomes ings for gw26

    Thanks

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Cant see any faults, good to go.

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      If Villa has a blank in GW28, then I would change Fleck to Cantwell

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks. Yes will need slightly rethink if villa v Sheffield postponed . Cheer s

  11. melvinmbabazi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Would you wildcard this? 1FT 0.6 ITB

    McCarthy-McGovern
    TAA-Aurier-Lundstram-Williams-Rico
    KDB-Mane-Martial-James-Cantwell
    Vardy-Firmino-Ings

    Thanks

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I would, especially if Mane is out.

    2. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Nope, I wouldn't

    3. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      yes

  12. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Thinking of bringing C Wilson in for Vardy and capping next week. Thats what its come to

    1. The_Fish
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I like players that have given up. Makes it easier.

  13. DontPiqueTooSoon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    This is probably the alcohol within talking but with the injuries stacking up I just might activate. OR 360,225. Sitting second in my two mini-leagues by about 30-50 points.

    Current team with highlighted players I might need to move on:

    Ryan* (Button)
    TAA, Chilwell*, Lund*, Rico*, Kelly*
    Salah, KDB, Mane*, Grealish, Cantwell*
    Vardy*, DCL, Ings

    Would use your wildcard or sit tight for more Vardy/Mane news? Using it now would make it harder to traverse the future double game weeks but by then it might be too late anyway...ahhhhh decisions. Head says wait.

    1. AuFeld
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      It is to my understanding, that it is usually best to play your WC for the dgw's ahead.

    2. I Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I wouldn't use it. You can deal with Mane if necessary and bench quite a few of the other problem players.

  14. Slitherene
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Ryan
    Holgate Robertson Egan
    Mane* Salah KdB Grealish
    Aubameyang DCL Ings

    0 FT, 0.1 ITB

    Should I take a hit?
    But, who to get in?

    1. I Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Need to see your bench.

      1. Slitherene
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Kabasele Dendoncker Fodder

    2. AuFeld
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A hit for who?

      1. Slitherene
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I wish I knew 🙁

  15. Pilgrim62
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Who do you prefer:
    Grealish or Adama ?

    1. AuFeld
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Adama. Player aside, Adama is surrounded by a better quality of players.

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Grealish is fantastic too, though.

  16. OverTinker
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Henderson (Button)
    Trent Lundstram Holgate stephens Lascelles
    Salah Mané KDB Grealish Dendo
    Vardy Haller DCL

    1.6 itb 1 FT
    Best Mane replacement here??

    1. King Sheep
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      martial

  17. iCon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What's up with Lundstram?

    1. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      has been Benched for two games in a row for Besic and Besic has scored too

      1. iCon
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah, but it was City and FA Cup; was benched for previous City game too IIRC

        1. OverTinker
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          I really hope its just because of that but it seems unlikely to me.

          1. Nomar
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Minutes being managed as he’s just a kid still.

  18. The Reptile
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Are people selling Abraham - and if so to who?

  19. jimmy.floyd
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Kun or Auba on WC?

    1. iCon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Trying to make the same decision albeit not on WC...leaning towards Aubameyang I think

      1. AuFeld
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Love Aguero's output, but you can't get points if you don't play. Auba imo.

        1. iCon
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Main reason I'm favouring Auba; Pep knows the league is done so I can see Jesus getting plenty of game time

          1. AuFeld
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Is Jesus the best pick?

            1. iCon
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Nope; for the same reason

    2. The Reptile
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      How about Jiménez? can't afford Auba with 2 - 3 changes only 1FT

      1. The Reptile
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Without

      2. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Jimi is an excellent pick anyway.

  20. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Tomori G
    Barkley A

    Hull 0-2 Chelsea

  21. fantasyfog
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    when are the dg weeks?

    1. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Blanks: GW28 and GW31
      Blank and Double: GW34
      Double: GW37

      1. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        that makes GW 34 an ideal gw for freehit right?

        1. diesel001
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Depends how blank and double GW34 is. It might be better to FH in GW31.

        2. El Presidente
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Yes, FH 31 or 34

      2. fantasyfog
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        where can I see this, teams blanking teams with doubles?

        1. The_Fish
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          You can’t yet.

  22. Legohair
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Mane&Tammy to Pepe&Auba for a hit?

    1. iCon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Too much Arse!

      1. Legohair
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Fantastic fixtures coming versus others top 6 teams...

    2. The_Fish
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Pepe? Really?

      1. Legohair
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        I have strong believe in arteta efect

    3. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not worried about blank GW28 with those 2?

      plus City and Lei/Nor/Avl/Shu players

      1. Legohair
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        What teams likely play in gw 28?

        1. FFSbet.com
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          City - Arsenal and one of Norwich - Leicester or Aston Villa - Sheffield Utd is blank.

          Depends who go to final from Aston Villa - Leicester

          1. Legohair
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I have 3 leicester players so guess i have to wish that aston villa go to the final. Yeah pepe seems not that great idea anymore.

  23. King Sheep
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    McCarthy, Ramsdale

    TAA, Soy, Lund, Kelly, Williams

    Mane*, KDB, Moura, Maddison, Cantwell*

    Vardy*, Abraham*, Firmino

    4 injuries and a few I'm not happy with.

    Would you

    A - WC

    B - Mane/Abraham > Salah/Ings

  24. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Grosicki G

    Hull 1-2 Chelsea

    1. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Could be a Kovacic own goal. Took a big deflection off him.

  25. FFSbet.com
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Serbian saying that when roughly translated in English goes like this – “Mom didn’t blame you for gambling but for trying to dig yourself out of the hole”.

    Haha yes very famous saying but very hard to do.

    When you have bad streak and lost most of money get up and walk away,try again next time.

    Sadly most gamblers lose most of their money this way,irrational decisions after losing and impulsive bets.

    Thats why in casinos there are people who give money with 10% daily interest rate,urge to get your money back is strong.

  26. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Set on my WC, just this little piece I'm undecided on

    DCL or Wood?

    1. King Sheep
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      DCL

  27. Nomar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Got some interesting decisions to make in the next 6 days.

    Ryan, Button
    Söyüncü, TAA, Aurier, Lundstram, Kiko Femenia
    Mané, KdB, Grealish, Martial, Traoré
    Vardy, Firmino, Ings

    2FT, £1.1m ITB

    I could keep Firmino, downgrade Mane and get Auba/Kun for Vardy.

    I could do straight swap, Mane to Salah but not enough to get Auba or Kun

    I could keep Mané on bench and play Grealish and Traoré till Mané returns, as they aren’t a bad pairing to use.

    There are so many possibilities.........

  28. King Kohli
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Does this team need a WC?

    McCarthy Stek
    TAA Soy* Lundy* Rico* Williams
    Mane* Salah KDB Martial Cantwell*
    Vardy* Ings DCL

    1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yes.

  29. Bavarian
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Would you wc this?
    McCarthy-Button
    TAA-VVD-Soy-Lund-Kelly
    Mane-KDB-Mad-Grealish-Cantwell
    Vardy-Ings-Jimenez
    1FT - 2.6 itb

    1. Bavarian
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Vardy-Mane 》》 Auba-Salah -4?

    2. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No

  30. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Evening all!! Anyone care to run their eyes Over my team and give advice as to where to improve moving forward greatly appreciated!! Did Söyüncü to Lascelles with my free this week!!
    Henderson
    TAA Lascelles Baldock
    Salah Mané KDB Martial
    Vardy Ings Deeney
    Subs- Fabianski Hayden Lundstram Stephens