Should FPL managers replace Vardy with Aubameyang?

Fantasy Premier League managers are considering selling Jamie Vardy (£9.9m) for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.7m) ahead of Gameweek 25 – an understandable move to consider.

I have been looking into some of the numbers posted by the two players this season to see whether or not it’s a good idea.

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I am certainly considering making the switch to Aubameyang, if nothing else, but to take a different approach to recover after a pretty frustrating Double Gameweek 24.

Sometimes you can make completely rational decisions like placing the Triple Captain Chip on Sadio Mané (£12.4m), only to see him walk off after 32 minutes in the first game of a double Gameweek.

This kind of bad luck happens, it’s part of the game. I’ll laugh it off and move on.

That gets more difficult though when you are making lots of bad decisions to go along with the unlucky ones, like spending four points to bring in Jack Grealish (£6.7m) for Adama Traoré (£5.8m), despite the Wolves man having averaged 5.7 points per game from Gameweek 17 to 23.

The above sums up my problem right now. It feels like I’m making lots of bad decisions, quite simply because I am, and I’m sure some of you reading will be able to relate to this. I’m not trusting my instinct or even listening to what I’m saying to others. Every decision is being second-guessed and I’m definitely guilty of overthinking.

That brings me to my transfer thoughts for this week. As the rank continues to slide (and I’m glad I’m writing this before Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) makes it worse against that West Ham defence), I’m looking for something different to do. Almost to the point where I’ll take something different just for the sake of it. Anything to turn this season around.

The current team looks like this.

There aren’t many glaring issues I don’t think, and the Season Ticker within the Members Area isn’t showing me many teams with good upcoming fixtures where I don’t already own players, or quite frankly just don’t want them.

Vardy is one player I’ve considered potentially selling. I’ve seen other FPL managers talk about this as well. For me, it’s mostly fixture driven with Chelsea (home), Wolves (away), and Manchester City (home) to come in the next three Gameweeks for Leicester.

The Leicester front-man hasn’t scored in the league since Gameweek 18, and managers are starting to become frustrated. When you start looking at the context behind the lack of returns, it doesn’t seem so bad.

Liverpool in Gameweek 19 was always going to be a tough game, the following two fixtures were missed through injury. That was followed by an assist against Southampton, a penalty miss at Burnley and an early injury versus West Ham.

He’s certainly not been value for money but had he converted that penalty as he usually does (in the Premier League he has scored 17 out of 21 taken), then I’m not sure FPL managers would be so keen to get rid.

We also have to take into consideration that Wilfred Ndidi (£5.0m) missed the Southampton and Burnley games and didn’t start against West Ham either.

To show the importance of Ndidi I looked at interceptions, tackles and tackles won for all positions over the course of this season. He’s joint top for interceptions (56), third for tackles (119), and second for tackles won (86).

On the surface, this would be a big plus to the defensive players for Leicester but it also helps with their attack. With Ndidi in the team they are more likely to win the ball back more often, this allows quicker transitions to attack with the creative outlet of James Maddison (£7.6m).

That being said, perhaps in the short term, the more difficult fixture run could be taken advantage of.

One player I’ve been looking at is Aubameyang. Is this being different for different sake, or is there a genuine differential to take advantage of?

The Arsenal forward has only missed two games this season and they were through suspension. He’s about as nailed as they come and has 17 attacking returns in 22 games so far this season. Talk about consistent.

He’s one of those players I’ve never had space for this season, but with Burnley (away), Newcastle (home), and Everton (home) to come in the next three I’m tempted by a punt over Vardy with the view I can always get the Englishman back as and when needed.

Comparing the two over their last four matches it is quite positive for Aubameyang.

He’s had twice the number of shots inside the box, and although the Expected Goals are similar, that is different when you look at xG Open Play where Aubameyang comes out on top. This is because of the penalty against Burnley that Vardy had.

Over the season, however, Vardy has been out-performing Aubameyang in big chances, shots inside the box and Expected Goals.

The key question we need to ask ourselves is will Vardy recapture some of that form that saw him score eight weeks in a row. Let’s not also forget that while Aubameyang has a mammoth 17 returns in 22 games, Vardy has 23 in slightly less minutes.

His goal-scoring prowess may not fully emerge over the next three but beyond that the future looks bright with a solid fixture run for Leicester.

Arsenal’s next opponents Burnley have conceded the higher number of shots in the box over the last four matches but it is worth noting they’ve played Leicester, Man United and Chelsea in that time.

When you look back a bit further over the last six matches all of Arsenal’s next three opponents are in the top six for shots conceded in the box.

And while that does look good for Arsenal, their own goal threat hasn’t been ideal recently. Looking back again at the last six matches and only Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Burnley have had fewer shots in the box than Mikel Arteta’s men.

Looking at the above it does seem unlikely that Arsenal will fail to score in their next three matches, and if they do it’s likely Aubameyang will be involved. He’s got a 52% goal involvement record so far for this season and that puts him in the top 5 of all players who have played at least 1,000 minutes.

Is that enough though? If we don’t expect any big wins then is Aubameyang at £10.7m worth it, when other cheaper strikers like Danny Ings (£7.0m) and Raúl Jiménez (£7.6m) continue to steadily bring in the points.

One concern there might be is if Alexandre Lacazette (£9.3m) plays, then the Gabon international often finds himself on the wing as more of an inside forward which on the surface doesn’t sound great from a returns point of view, but having looked at games where he’s started on either wing it looks more promising.

• Centre Forward – 14 games, 7 goals
• Right Wing – 3 games, 3 goals
• Left Wing – 5 games, 4 goals

It looks like Aubameyang is primed to get more goals over the coming weeks, but how big of an FPL score will he rack up?

This may be one of those situations where sitting back and doing nothing could be the answer. Vardy looks to be fit for Gameweek 25 after playing a part against Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup. We know he’ll be nailed for 90 minutes, has penalties, and with Ndidi back we could see Leicester perform well even with the tougher fixtures. I’m just not sure there’s enough I’ve seen that tells me Vardy will continue this goal-drought over the long term.

While Arsenal’s fixtures from Gameweek 29 are good so are Leicester’s, and it might just be worth saving a transfer if you think Vardy can get some returns over the next three. It’s also worth noting that with Leicester’s loss to Aston Villa they’ll play in Gameweek 28, whereas Aubameyang will miss out if Manchester City beat Manchester United in the other semi-final.

Lastly, I’d consider when you might play your Wildcard. If that’s around Gameweek 29 or 30 then it’s probably better to take advantage of the fixtures. If it’s likely to be later in the season then holding on to Vardy and spending transfers on other moves might be the better option.

I’m still tempted though, mostly because it’s different, and if it pays off it could be the kick-starter I need and let’s be honest, I’m starting to run out of time to save this season.

There is inspiration to be gleaned from the recent Sergio Aguero (£12.0m) heroics for FPL managers where he propelled them up the rankings in a short space of time. But I’m often reminded that if you’re unsure it’s probably best to do nothing, save a transfer and reassess the following week. That seems rather boring when your rank is closer to 1,000,000 than it is to 1 though…