Using Fantasy Points Against to excel in FPL

My name is Rich (@RichP_LFC on Twitter) and I’m addicted to FPL. There, I’ve said it. If you’re reading this, chances are you are as well. I’ve been playing Fantasy Premier League now for 14 years, starting in the 2006/07 season. I finished in the top 90k that season, followed by finishing 2020th in the 07/08 season. Since then, it’s been more of a casual hobby where I focused on winning my mini leagues, as opposed to focusing on overall rank. So only two top 150k ranks as my best seasons.

This season is the first season where I’ve started spending more time on it, trying to absorb as much information as possible from places such as Fantasy Football Scout and podcasts such as The Scoutcast, FPL General, WGTA and Planet FPL.

I’m essentially looking to gather as much information as possible, in order to make the best decisions, to try and finish as high as possible.

In addition to FPL, I also play NFL Fantasy Football. A tool that is used in that game, is something called FPA – Fantasy Points Against. This tool ranks the teams 1-32 in terms of which team gives up the most points to which position. So when looking at players to play, one of the considerations is using a player who is playing a team that gives up the most points to players in that position.

I first made the link of using FPA as a metric for FPL data courtesy of @FPLKernow on Twitter – well worth a follow if you find this interesting. I’ve noticed that no one else really uses this as a metric for FPL, so it could be a powerful tool/advantage to consider in addition to other statistics.

The aim of this is to try and find some standout picks at each position for the next few Gameweeks. It could be useful for short term punts as well. I’ve created a spreadsheet to track this and have been doing so since Gameweek 10 roughly. Part one of the article is split between Forwards and Midfielders, with part 2 focusing on Defenders and goalkeepers.

Let’s Begin

Up to and including Gameweek 24, this is a table of Fantasy Points conceded to forwards by each club. As you can see (and I guess some would say somewhat obviously, your forwards are not likely to score many points against Liverpool/Manchester City (red), but they will likely do well against Norwich/Aston Villa (green) etc.

This information on its own can be quite one dimensional. It doesn’t take a genius to work out if your players are playing one of the big boys, they likely won’t fair too well. However, by plotting it against the fixture list, it gives us our very own ‘FPA Ticker’ for each position. So you can use four different tickers to show good or bad runs of fixtures at each position, rather than just per team like the FPL fixture difficulty rating. It can give you something like this:

*Please note: Fixture tickers are not excluding any blanks yet*

Now that you can see it like this – it can be a helpful tool to identify players you want to bring in. So the clear forward pick between Gameweek 25 and Gameweek 29 would be Roberto Firmino.

Now I wouldn’t use this solely as a way of identifying targets, its worth using the stats that are available in the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area to try and aid your decision. Other candidates could be: Danny Ings (excluding Gameweek 25), Callum Wilson and Neal Maupay.

Midfield

Again, we are looking to target players who will be playing teams in green, or near to this bottom 5:

So using this on its own, aside from Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah, I feel like there is less of a clear pick. Players to target between Gameweek 25-39 could be: Nicolas Pépé, Nathan Redmond, Jack Grealish, Ashley Westwood (punt!), Leandro Trossard and Aaron Mooy.

Forwards

But this isn’t the only way we can use this information. We also can take into account how many points these teams SCORE. So I’ve plotted this for Fantasy Points For (FPF). This table could appear a bit more obvious, as we all know the best performing players in FPL. Let’s have a look anyway and see what we find:

As we can see here, Arsenal top this table, with Southampton, Man City and Wolves hanging around. Burnley, surprisingly (or not depending on how much attention you pay) are second. A consideration here, is that Arsenal, Burnley and Wolves all start the majority of their games with 2 forwards, so if we wanted to drill down into even more detail, we could look at points per forward for those teams, and compare them with teams such as Leicester, Man City and Liverpool, who usually only deploy one FPL forward in each game. So in addition to Sergio Aguero, Danny Ings, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Raul Jimenez, Chris Wood could be a shout. Now that we have our highest scoring teams at FWD, let’s revisit the Ticker:

Based on this alone, you could rule Jimenez out. However for me, I feel he is fixture proof. In fact, I’ve already bought him into my team at the expense of Haller, who was a one week Double Gameweek punt.

Burnley and Newcastle rank just outside of the top five Fantasy Points against allowed to forwards, so Aubameyang is also worth a shout. Aguero, if you like the gamble against rotation, also a fine shout.

Chris Wood has already scored against Man Utd and so could continue scoring against “weaker opposition”.

Danny Ings, post Liverpool, has excellent fixtures and is also strongly worth considering.

Lets look at our picks from FPA as well. Starting with Liverpool and Firmino, it shows that Liverpool are not far from the bottom 5 teams. As we know, Salah and Mane contribute the most in terms of goals, so Firmino would be somewhat of a gamble. However, we could see an uptick in his fortunes with Mane out and he is generally the only FPL Forward deployed.

Danny Ings was flagged earlier, and so he stays.

I’m going to remove Callum Wilson at this point. Bournemouth are out of form, their FPF is middling and their fixtures after Villa do not make me confident in him as a mid-term pick.

I’ve also dropped Maupay as it currently isn’t happening for him.

So our shortlist is:

• Roberto Firmino
• Danny Ings
• Sergio Aguero
• Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
• Raul Jimenez
• Chris Wood

Back to Midfielders

No surprise to see Manchester City and Liverpool at the top here, however Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea also rank highly in this category. However, Spurs run is quite poor in terms of teams that give up points to midfielders, so that combined with their general form would see me avoiding them. Same applies to Chelsea and Leicester. The team with standout fixtures is Liverpool, whilst City are pretty much fixture proof anyway. However, the rotation is strong with Pep Guardiola, and so players like Riyad Mahrez, Bernardo Silva, and David Silva, could well be in and out of the team. With the Mane injury, it’s not a surprise to see Salah was the most transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 25.

Something interesting here is that Arsenal midfielders don’t score much in the way of FPF at all, as they rank just outside the bottom five. Pepe could still be worth a shout but proceed with caution. Looking at this from an FPF point of view, could essentially rule out earlier picks such as Westwood as well. Following Trossard’s benching last week I’m eliminating both him and Mooy despite potentially favourable fixtures.

Jack Grealish, on form and with Villa just outside of the top 5 for FPF, is still worth consideration.

After Liverpool and Southampton fixtures improve, so despite them being lower down the FPF table, I’ll be keeping Redmond on the shortlist:

• Mohamed Salah
• Nicolas Pépé
• Jack Grealish
• Nathan Redmond

The last, and potentially most interesting (if you’re still with me and haven’t fallen asleep) is splitting all of this between home and away fixtures:

The first thing I notice here is Southampton. They give up the 4th least points overall away from home, yet they give up the MOST points overall at home. That is a stark contrast. 

Liverpool, Leicester, Man City and Wolves all rank in the top 5 for least FPA both home and away, with Manchester United taking the last spot at home (Southampton take the 5th spot away as above). Bournemouth, Burnley and Norwich are in the top 5 for most FPA both home and away, with Watford and West Ham joining them for home fixtures. Newcastle and Manchester United make up the top 5 for most FPA allowed away from home.

Looking at FPF, you notice that whilst Everton are in the top five for FPF scoring at home, they’re in the bottom 5 away from home. Once again, this applies to Southampton, which is really interesting, and indicates that from an FPL point of view, their assets are likely to perform better away from home.

Norwich are in the bottom five both home and away, and the only team to feature in both for FPF.

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Southampton total the five at home, with Aston Villa, Everton, Manchester United and Watford making up the numbers away from home.

To conclude, I’m going to reevaluate our picks that have made it through both the FPA fixture list and the FPF vs FPA fixture list against the home and away fixture tickers, to see if we really have some standout picks for the next few game weeks.

Firmino

NOR (A) – this is classed as a top five fixture based on overall FPA and Norwich give up the second most points to forwards at home.

WHU (H) – this is classed as a top five fixture based on overall FPA and the Hammers give up the third most points to forwards away from home.

WAT (A) – Watford are just outside the bottom five for FPA allowed to forwards, but they are just outside the top five for FPA allowed to forwards at home.

BOU(H) – Bournemouth are just outside the bottom five for FPA allowed to forwards and are pretty stingy on Forwards when playing away from home, ranking 4th for least points conceded to the position. However, they are in the top five for points conceded to forwards when they play at home.

Liverpool are just outside the bottom 5 for FPA scored by forwards, and are middling both home and away.

Ings

BUR(H) – Burnley give up the third most points to forwards on their travels and are just outside of the five teams that give up the most points to forwards overall.

AVL(H) – Villa give up the most points overall to forwards and the second most when playing away from home.

WHU(A) – West Ham give up the fourth most points to forwards at home and fourth most points overall.

NEW(H) – Newcastle give up the fourth most points to forwards on their travels but are middling overall.

Southampton are in the top 5 overall for FPA scored by forwards, as well as being in the top 5 both home and away.

Aguero

WHU (H) – West Ham is classed as a top five fixture based on overall FPA and the Hammers give up the third most points to forwards away from home.

LEI (A) – Leicester, despite sitting in the bottom five overall are just outside the top five for most FPA conceded to forwards when playing at home.

BLANK GAMEWEEK

MUN(A) – United are bottom five for FPA allowed to forwards overall, just outside the bottom five when playing at home as well.

Man City are in the top 5 overall and when playing away, but just outside it when playing at home

Aubameyang

NEW (H) – Newcastle give up the fourth most points to forwards on their travels but are middling overall.

EVE (H) – Everton give up the most points to forwards when they’re away from home and also in the top five overall for FPA allowed to Forwards

BLANK GAMEWEEK

WHU (H) –  West Ham is classed as a top fiove fixture based on overall FPA and the Hammers give up the third most points to forwards away from home.

Arsenal top the ranking overall and are in the top 5 both home and away

Jimenez

LEI(H) – Leicester are bottom five for FPA allowed to Forwards when playing away, and overall.

NOR(H) – Norwich are top five overall for FPA allowed to forwards and just outside the top five when playing away from home.

TOT(A) – Spurs are middling when playing at home and overall.

BHA(H) – Brighton are just outside the top five for FPA allowed to forwards overall and middling when playing away from home.

Wolves are in the top 5 overall for FPF, middling at home and top 5 away from home

Wood

SOU (A) – Southampton give up the third most points to forwards at home, fifth most overall

BOU (H) – Bournemouth are just outside the bottom five for FPA allowed to forwards and are pretty stingy on forwards when playing away from home, ranking fourth for least points conceded to the position. However, they are in the top five for points conceded to forwards when they play at home.

NEW (A) – Newcastle are in the bottom five for FPA allowed to forwards when they play at home and middling overall.

TOT (H) – Spurs just outside the top five both when playing away from home and overall.

Burnley are in the top 5 overall, home and away

Salah

NOR (A) – Norwich is classed as a top five fixture based on overall FPA and Norwich are just outside the top five FPA allowed to midfielders when playing at home.

WHU (H) – West Ham is classed as a top five fixture based on overall FPA and the Hammers are just outside the top five for FPA allowed away from home.

WAT (A) – Watford are just outside the bottom five for FPA allowed to midfielders, and they are middling for FPA allowed to midfielders at home.

BOU (H) – Bournemouth give up the most points to midfielders overall and also the most points to midfielders when playing away.

Liverpool are top 5 for points scored by midfielders overall, home and away.

Pépé

NEW (H) – Newcastle give up the third most points to midfielders on their travels and are top five FPA allowed to midfielders overall.

EVE (H) – Everton are middling when they’re away from home and also in the bottom five overall for FPA allowed to midfielders

BLANK GAMEWEEK

WHU (H) – West Ham is classed as a top five fixture based on overall FPA but the Hammers are middling for FPA allowed to midfielders away from home.

Arsenal are just outside the bottom 5 for each of the 3 metrics when looking at fantasy points scored by midfielders.

Grealish

TOT (H) – Spurs are just outside the bottom five overall and middling when playing away.

SOU (A) – Southampton are just outside the top five overall and give up the most points to opposing midfielders when playing at home

BLANK GAMEWEEK

LEI (A) – Leicester are bottom five overall and bottom five at home for FPA allowed to midfielders.

Villa are just outside the top 5 overall, inside the top 5 when playing at home, and middling when playing away.

Redmond

BUR (H) – Burnley are second overall for FPA allowed, but middling on their travels.

AVL (H) – Villa are middling overall for FPA allowed and middling when they play away from home.

WHU (A) – West Ham are top five both overall and when playing at home.

NEW (H) – Newcastle are top five both overall and when playing away.

Southampton are middling overall for their midfielders, being in the bottom 5 at home and middling away from home.

Conclusion

So after analysing all of that FPA/FPF data, I’ll pick a few candidates who should do well between now and Gameweek 29.

Salah is the clear choice in midfield, and a punt on Redmond could work well.

With forwards Firmino, Ings and Jimenez are looking the best options.

Lets see how these guys get on over the next few weeks! Remember, use this as part of a well balanced diet of numerous different statistics, rather than just using it as the holy grail. Let it help you make decisions or justify ideas, rather than placing all of your faith in it. It could be a very useful tool.