Pro Pundits

Loss aversion and why we hold on to underperforming players in FPL

In my previous article, I discussed the difficulties we often find in transferring out players who have been performing well, even when it might appear beneficial for us to do so. 

However, sometimes we hold on to players too long even when they’re not doing well. This article is the Part One of a two-piece series that will consider the possible causes for that behaviour and how we might overcome them to make better transfer decisions.

Loss Aversion

Loss aversion is a cognitive bias in humans that describes our tendency to fear losses more than we value gains. Specifically, scientific studies have shown that we fear losses approximately twice as much as we value gains. 

This probably explains why we’re reluctant to take hits on players who are unlikely to ‘explode’, but it also goes some way to explaining why we hold on to underperforming players too long.

Arguably the number one source of anxiety among Fantasy managers comes from transferring a player out who you suspect might suddenly start scoring, something that always seems to happen. 

The hundreds of thousands of managers who transferred Timo Werner (£9.3m) out ahead of his two goals and assist in Gameweek 5 can probably relate to this feeling. It is, essentially, a feeling of points lost. Because we anticipate this feeling, we fail to act as a result.

Warped Reality

In reality, players we transfer out probably don’t score nearly as often as we think, we just remember the instances when they do, thus mentally inflating their frequency. It also doesn’t necessarily become a bad action to have removed a previously underperforming player, just because that player suddenly decides to start scoring that Gameweek.

While it might feel like this kind of thing is a matter of luck, one of the key skill elements of FPL is identifying the contextual factors that influence whether a player will score or not. 

Taking Werner as an example again, he had been previously playing out of position on the left wing and a move to the central striker position seemingly improved his prospects. However, he was also playing against a Southampton team who played a high defensive line, something that suits pacy players like Werner. 

Therefore, if either or both of these conditions are removed, it’s possible that Werner will go back to underperforming. The skill, therefore, is figuring out what conditions are important to the prospects of a player, and whether they will be consistently present.

If the conditions that contributed to a player’s sudden change in form are not sustainable, managers who transferred them out should not lose sleep over their decision, particularly if it enabled a move to an alternative with better long-term prospects. The spectre of this occurring should also not deter a manager from making a move if it makes objective sense based on whatever standards they employ to make their decisions.

It’s not because of you

Most importantly, although it might feel like it, a player did not start scoring because you transferred them out. That kind of ‘magical thinking’ can quickly sabotage a Fantasy manager’s season as it removes logic and objectivity and puts events firmly into the hands of chance. 

Stick to your trusted methods and, if they happen to fail you one Gameweek, console yourself with the knowledge that it absolutely, definitely, happens to everyone.

In Part Two, I’ll be discussing the ‘Endowment Effect’, coffee mugs, and why we sometimes prefer our low performers to others’ high performers.

1,687 Comments Post a Comment
  1. aaroncfc
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bench one:
    Chilwell
    Reguilon
    Digne
    Kilman
    Foden
    Barkley

    1. Jönny
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Probably Reguillon

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kilman or Chilwell

    3. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kilman

    4. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Chilwell

    5. aaroncfc
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks guys

  2. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone think KDB wasn’t really injured and Pep was just giving him the rest he’d asked for?

    1. Maddamotha
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No

    2. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Do you think he would start this weekend ? Is it good to hold him?

    3. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Zero chance

    4. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Possibly, I dont think the injury was too bad if he was cycling with the Belgian squad the next day

    5. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If Pep wants to rest or bench/sideline you, he doesn't need to lie about it. He's already known for doing it and is currently doing it to some players (Zinch and Bilva, Mendy warming up)

    6. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nah

  3. Jönny
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    All good to go?

    Martinez (Steer)
    Robertson, Saiss, Lamptey (Kilman, Struijk)
    Mane (c), Son, Foden, Harrison (Poveda)
    Aguero (vc), Kane, DCL

    1. No Totti No Party
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      WC ?

      1. Jönny
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yep

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not convinced with the Harrison and Poveda picks. Nice captain pick

      1. Jönny
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Leeds fan... I think for 4.4, unlikely to need him, has looked good coming off the bench.

        And I like Harrison, plus have team loyalty making me want at least one Leeds attacker just because I've never been able to pick them before!

        1. No Totti No Party
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Harrison playing to deep for me, maybe risk with Lookman ?

          1. Jönny
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Really? I haven't noticed that so much when watching him... he was pushed back a bit in the second half against Wolves, and to be fair I would slightly worry about losing minutes to Raphinha going forwards, but in the other games he has been very attacking.

            1. No Totti No Party
              • 12 Years
              3 years, 5 months ago

              he helps a lot in the back imo

              1. Jönny
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                3 years, 5 months ago

                True.. I think they all do at Leeds.

                Didn't realise Lookman was only 5.0... I will have a look, man.

                Thanks for the input.

  4. Ze_Austin
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    The league's current worst defences according to big chances conceded in last FOUR matches are Man U (14), Liverpool (12), Man City (11) and Arsenal (10, joint 4th with West Brom and Fulham)

    Bottomed, so reposting

  5. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Sat with Mitchell and Taylor (Mitchell starting). Sell Taylor for Lamptey and bench Mitchell?

    1. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wait for a week.

      1. The Handsome Hunk
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Would sell Mitchell before Taylor.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If FT, just save

  6. Feed tha Sheep
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Would generally never take a hit for a defender but I have wanted to get Davies out for three weeks now and never have a FT to do so. It prob won’t come off this week but should over next few..would be someone up to 4.9...thoughts please? Otherwise will have to play Mitchell...

    1. No Totti No Party
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I did a hit for Kilman, chasing price and points 🙂

      1. Feed tha Sheep
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Have saiss so would prob be for Villa def or Lamptey..just not sure if worth a -4?

    2. Jönny
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think taking hits for the long term is sensible. Playing Mitchell this week not the worst, but he may not start - depends on your other defenders, but Lamptey could be a good move if you don't already have him.

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        This for me - make sure the player is nailed and has good upcoming fixtures

        1. Feed tha Sheep
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Villa def or Lamptey?

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Targett and use the money elsewhere

    3. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Konsa

  7. drughi
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Mccarthy
    TAA Robertson Lamptey
    Jrod* Salah(C) Son Grealish
    Watkins Kane DCL

    Forster Ayling Soucek Douglas

    Was all set on saving transfer before jrod news. What to do now ? still save ?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      save, good bench

  8. farmerfat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Mane to outscore Salah this weekend?

    1. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Let me check my crystal ball

      1. farmerfat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Let me know the results 🙂

        1. Flair
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Haha

          I back Mane but fear that Salah gets a pen

      2. tiltkamp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Jota probably taking most of Manes minutes this week

        1. Flair
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Nope

          1. tiltkamp
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Icing his knee when subbed off vs Ajax. — Jota look magnetic when he came on. — SHU playing with two left feet.. just a hunch Jota sees more gt than him

    2. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think it's probably Salah's gameweek.

    3. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

  9. Maddamotha
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Best Palace defender to pick on WC? Ward?

    1. Crystal Alice
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Cahill until PVA back

  10. Bezdon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Hold J Rod and have to play Bissouma this week

    OR bring in Foden (or another) before inevitable price drop on Jamez

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold

    2. cheeky moses
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Got a similar dilemma. I don't fancy downgrading Hames. For me it's an upgrade or hold.

      1. Bezdon
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks for the advice both.

        Yeah I’d have 8.8 to spend...havertz/mahrez/etc not floating my boat yet and can’t reach premium. I’ll leave it, use the double transfer to free funds and upgrade if needed next GW

  11. Crystal Alice
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Pereira > Zaha -4
    Y/N

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No - Pereira on set pieces and can provide an assist to the two CB.

  12. cheeky moses
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    need some advice here,

    A) Hames and PVA > Bruno and Kilman (-4)
    B) Hold, play Bissouma and hope PVA gets a start

    1. Indpush
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold and play Hames with Bissouma on the bench

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        +1

      2. cheeky moses
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        cheers

  13. Indpush
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Have Reguilon, PVA, Saiss, Chilwell, Kilman playing three at the back.

    Who am I starting this week?

    1. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      R, S, K

    2. aaroncfc
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Similar predicament to me, I have Digne Chilwell Reguilon Kilman to pick from. Kilman probably favourite for the clean sheet out of those but the attacking returns potential of the others makes the decision really tough! Currently I’m benching Kilman.

    3. Dosh
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      That's a hard one, surely you could bench another mid?

      1. Indpush
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        My mids, Son, Salah, Grealish, Zaha with Jorginho first on bench

    4. Ronniie
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      First three.

    5. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Difficult one. The only nailed players are Reguillon and Chilwell. Other 3 might start.

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Other 3 might not start

  14. El Magico5
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone else not saying a word about fpl in their group chats until 6:35pm? Will be a few boneheads who forget!

    1. No Totti No Party
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah 😀

    2. Von Lipwig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      haha, evil genius

    3. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      100%!!

    4. Rolls-Royce
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Most people are being spoon-fed about deadline reminders. Probably won't matter much.

  15. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which defender between 4.5 to 5.5 would you recommend only on the basis of attack potential? Have Lamptey and Dallas as of now in that bracket.

    Thanks a lot!

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      KWP likes to get forward for the saints.

      I have got one eye on Bellerin as a potential Trent downgrade in a couple weeks time.

      West Ham boys - Masuaku/Cresswell/Coufal look like good options too

      1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I am looking at Bellerin too. Or even Tierny. How about Reguilon?

        1. ElliotJHP
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah Reguilion is a great shout, I don't think I will go there myself as I will be looking to change GW8 and Spurs fixtures change for the worse shortly after.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Creswell and Keane

  16. ElliotJHP
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Shame tonights game is a PPV, should be a good watch.

    Don't think PPV will last this current batch of fixtures tbh, hasn't seemed to be too popular

  17. balint84
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A) play ASM from bench
    B) sell Rod to Zaha for a hit

    Hw long James Rod will be out?

  18. Zenith UK
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I made this wildcard team this week;

    Martinez
    Chilwell, Lamptey, Kilman
    Salah, Rashford, Son, Rodriguez, McGinn
    Kane, DCL

    Steele, Cresswell, KWP, Brewster (0.3M itb)

    However it now seems that Rodriguez is out for at least one week. My bench for this week isn't exactly suited to replace Hamez so do I one week punt someone and if so, who? This does however mean losing 0.1M on him as he's 8.0 right now and my sell value is 7.9

    Thoughts please?

    1. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hold and play Brewster

      1. Zenith UK
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I did think about this (even though he's third on my bench)

    2. Podorsky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I am in the exact same position. Thinking on doing a 1 week punt on Zaha, has a good fixture, on penalties etc.

      1. Zenith UK
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I'm feeling this option quite a bit, appreciate that

  19. Zlatan F.C
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Guys what do i do with this team? 5.5m in the bank 1FT

    Martinez
    Saiss Robbo Lamptey
    Salah(c) Foden Son Grealish Podence
    DCL Jimenez

    James Brewster Ferguson

    1. Gooner Kebab
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Brewster to Kane?

      1. Zlatan F.C
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Not enough. Could do Brewster and Podence to Kane and Bissouma (-4)

    2. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Podence > Bruno

      1. Bubbles1985
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        This.

  20. Teror
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which 5.5 mid to get on wildcard? Podence or Harrison?

    1. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Harrison

    2. FISSH
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Just get soucek

    3. Jebiga
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Saka

  21. Gooner Kebab
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Need a 4.5 def to replace Dunne (have Lamptey and Taylor)

    a) Targett
    b) Konsa
    c) Ayling
    d) Dallas

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Targett (Konsa is 4.6)

  22. FISSH
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which player do I start?

    A) Dallas (avl)
    B) Chillwell (mun)
    C) bissouma (WBA)

    1. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      C

    3. Pukkipartyy
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      b

  23. Bubbles1985
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Squad

    Martinez
    TAA Lamptey PVA
    Son Sterling(vc) Salah(c) Barkley
    Jimenez DCL Brewster

    Forster Ayling Soucek Masuaku

    I have 0.1itb left with 0ft

    Thoughts please?

    Cheers!

    1. Gooner Kebab
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      gtg

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      GTG

    3. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      That's what i thought!

      GL!

    4. tiltkamp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      PVA back this week?

  24. Heisenberg W. W.
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Pick one:

    A) Castagne (Arsenal away)
    B) Mitchell (Fulham away)

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Castagne - nailed to start

    2. Gooner Kebab
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B if he plays

  25. Bielsa Murderball
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Barkley or Trossard, and why?

    1. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Barkley - greedy fukker

    2. Zenith UK
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Neither. McGinn

  26. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Why, just why is Lampard playing Pulisic on the right... is it that difficult to play your best LW at LW? Baffling manager.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Loves Mount

    2. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      To accomodate Mount I suppose, that should inevitably change once ziyech is fit to start possibly even this week

      1. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Lampard would fit Mount in a front 3 even if he had the options of playing C Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski and Mo Salah.

      2. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Should be accommodating pulisic over mount every day

  27. Pukki Party
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anything worth a transfer or gtg? 0.9itb 1ft. Starting 11 and bench correct? Thanks

    Martinez
    TAA Robbo Ayling
    Salah Son Pulisic Trossard
    Jimenez DCL Watkins

    Button Soucek Lewis Taylor

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      GTG

      1. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers.

  28. stu92
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A) Hold Mings (0.1 value in him, hoping for another price rise)
    B) Get Konsa
    C) Get Targett

    On a wildcard so can go any one.

  29. thomashl
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Final WC draft – what's wrong with it?

    Martinez
    Chilwell Robbo Kilman Lamptey
    Son Salah(c) Grealish
    DCL Watkins Kane
    (Verrips - Bissouma Cresswell Rodriguez) 0.3 itb

    1. thomashl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Watkins –> Antonio in GW8 is the plan.
      Quite fancy a two-week punt on him with those fixtures

      1. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Nice team, i also punted on Watkins last week with Antonio transfer in mind.

        1. thomashl
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Thanks mate! At least I like the look of the team now, whereas I hated it before, haha.

    2. stu92
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks good, will get points. Would maybe go Maupay etc over Watkins if you already have Grealish but don't htink you can afford.

      1. thomashl
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers mate. Yeah, Maupay is just out of reach unfortunately.
        For two weeks I'm not that bothered, might be a differential double up.

        Bring the gameweek on!!

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks fine to me

      1. thomashl
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Ah, relieved to hear that, thanks!

    4. Zenith UK
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Triple Villa is my only concern

      1. thomashl
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        See what you mean, but Watkins is only a two week punt, will bring Antonio in for GW8 (if fit ofc).

        The alternative is going down to Brewster, but wouldn't quite know how to spend the money as I would want to keep Rodriguez anyways.

        1. Zenith UK
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Makes sense mate, we've both completed our WCs this week with 0.3M left 🙂

          1. thomashl
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            That's a good omen, bruv!

  30. MrCloppity
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Pereira out
    Barkley in
    -4?
    Thoughts

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No