Pro Pundits

Loss aversion and why we hold on to underperforming players in FPL

In my previous article, I discussed the difficulties we often find in transferring out players who have been performing well, even when it might appear beneficial for us to do so. 

However, sometimes we hold on to players too long even when they’re not doing well. This article is the Part One of a two-piece series that will consider the possible causes for that behaviour and how we might overcome them to make better transfer decisions.

Loss Aversion

Loss aversion is a cognitive bias in humans that describes our tendency to fear losses more than we value gains. Specifically, scientific studies have shown that we fear losses approximately twice as much as we value gains. 

This probably explains why we’re reluctant to take hits on players who are unlikely to ‘explode’, but it also goes some way to explaining why we hold on to underperforming players too long.

Arguably the number one source of anxiety among Fantasy managers comes from transferring a player out who you suspect might suddenly start scoring, something that always seems to happen. 

The hundreds of thousands of managers who transferred Timo Werner (£9.3m) out ahead of his two goals and assist in Gameweek 5 can probably relate to this feeling. It is, essentially, a feeling of points lost. Because we anticipate this feeling, we fail to act as a result.

Warped Reality

In reality, players we transfer out probably don’t score nearly as often as we think, we just remember the instances when they do, thus mentally inflating their frequency. It also doesn’t necessarily become a bad action to have removed a previously underperforming player, just because that player suddenly decides to start scoring that Gameweek.

While it might feel like this kind of thing is a matter of luck, one of the key skill elements of FPL is identifying the contextual factors that influence whether a player will score or not. 

Taking Werner as an example again, he had been previously playing out of position on the left wing and a move to the central striker position seemingly improved his prospects. However, he was also playing against a Southampton team who played a high defensive line, something that suits pacy players like Werner. 

Therefore, if either or both of these conditions are removed, it’s possible that Werner will go back to underperforming. The skill, therefore, is figuring out what conditions are important to the prospects of a player, and whether they will be consistently present.

If the conditions that contributed to a player’s sudden change in form are not sustainable, managers who transferred them out should not lose sleep over their decision, particularly if it enabled a move to an alternative with better long-term prospects. The spectre of this occurring should also not deter a manager from making a move if it makes objective sense based on whatever standards they employ to make their decisions.

It’s not because of you

Most importantly, although it might feel like it, a player did not start scoring because you transferred them out. That kind of ‘magical thinking’ can quickly sabotage a Fantasy manager’s season as it removes logic and objectivity and puts events firmly into the hands of chance. 

Stick to your trusted methods and, if they happen to fail you one Gameweek, console yourself with the knowledge that it absolutely, definitely, happens to everyone.

In Part Two, I’ll be discussing the ‘Endowment Effect’, coffee mugs, and why we sometimes prefer our low performers to others’ high performers.

1,687 Comments Post a Comment
  1. BellyKlopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which move would you favour?
    A) Auba --> Sterling (play Mitchell/Taylor)
    B) Davies --> Reguilon

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A easy

    2. The Head-Ake
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

  2. JAYPEE
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who would you get rid of for Kane? Jiminez or Ings?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Jimenez

    2. Letsgo!
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Jimmy, ings will still score against everton i feel.
      Jimmy i think wont do quite well this season.

  3. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Morning Guys...........So with Hamez out injured ( I will still play ) who is first on my bench ??

    A, Brewster. ( away to LFC, and home coming v old club )
    B. Struijk ( away to Villa and already have Dallas )
    C, KWP ( home to weaken Everton )

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Probably KWP

  4. ludaslol
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez
    Lamptey Robbo TAA
    Salah Son Foden Podence
    Jimi Ings DCL

    2.6 itb.1 ft
    Mitchell, Furgesson, Zambo

    Everyone have good fixtures for next week, only worry is not having Kane.
    A) Jimi/ings > Kane
    B) Save FT
    C) Other moves?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A Ings

    2. 21VK12
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Jimmy to Kane or hold and then either do Ings/Jimmy to Aguero/Kane or Podence to Grealish next weeks

  5. mad_beer ✅
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I enjoyed that read. Thanks Simon.

    Out of context, is Laporte(don't ask why I have had him since GW1) to Saiss on a FT this week a good move?

  6. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone without manc assets and reallyhoping westham to win prolly 1-0 haha

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No highly owned players there so not really worried as they will share points anyway.

  7. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Looks like I need Pope to channel his 19/20 form for me this GW

    1. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      LoL. That would be big ask. I dont own Kane though which is bizarre.

  8. Pukkipartyy
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez
    Chilwell Saiss Robbo
    Salah (c) Son Grealish Foden Pulisic
    Kane DCL

    Steer Mitchell Brewster Dunne

    GTG?

    1. Quan MisTaka
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      yup

    2. The Head-Ake
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yup

  9. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    KDB to Sterling or hold?

    Sterling due a rest but also loves West Ham

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I thought KDB was in training and might start.

    2. Quan MisTaka
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      hold

    3. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      KDB is back in training. A bit sideways move?

    4. mad_beer ✅
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would do it with or without KDB coming back.

    5. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      KDB will be back next week, wouldn't bother

  10. Jinkys Oars
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who is the best Wolves defender under 5.4?

    I know Saiss is playing LWB and is more likely to get amongst the points but his position in the team doesn't seem to be guaranteed with Marcal etc, is Coady the best/safest bet?

    1. mad_beer ✅
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A classic case of over thinking.

      1. Jinkys Oars
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Maybe 🙂 No point in putting in someone who's not going to play either though...

    2. Hint
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Saiss will keep his place

      1. Jinkys Oars
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Decision made, cheers 🙂

    3. Phil's Stamps
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Saiss, he's nailed. He's aslo their best defender at the mo. He'll probably slot back into centre back when the new guy is settled in.

      1. Jinkys Oars
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        That's music to my ears, cheers 🙂

    4. XABI 15
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I dont think Saiss is nailed. I was speaking to a Wolves fan and he thought he might actually get dropped as he is the worst defensively

  11. Quan MisTaka
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who would you have from GW7 onwartds

    A) Jimi and Grelaish
    B)Watkins and Rashford

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

      1. The Head-Ake
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        B

  12. Trilly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Are we getting a proper press conference from Carlo today?

  13. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Am I GTG?
    Martinez (Button)
    Robbo,Konsa,Lamptey,Chilwell (Kilman)
    Salah(C)Son,Pulisic,Grealish(Bissouma)
    Kane,DCL (Brewster)

    On a WC, so any suggestions are welcome

    1. ArseneAllTheWay
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Havertz over Pulisic maybe?

    2. The Head-Ake
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks good to me

    3. mad_beer ✅
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks good, but that's a lot of AVL def.

  14. Zlatan F.C
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What are Jimenez and Podence owners doing? Shifting to Kane or holding?

    1. Quan MisTaka
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Shfiting to kane next week or antonio gw8

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Jimi is gone for me

    3. Gromit
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Done Jimi to Kane for this GW

      Podence holding for another 2 GWs and then maybe out for Foden if he doesn't come good.

  15. makaveli70
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Bench 2:
    Dallas
    Zuoma
    Barnes
    Kilman

    1. makaveli70
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Please help

      1. fpl_tp95
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Zouma and Dallas for me. Wary of Kilman not playing though so I'd pay attention to who's first on your bench.

  16. Pukki Blinders
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Burnley don't have a fit right back at the moment... does it make Son a better option than Kane this week?

  17. ArseneAllTheWay
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wilson > Aguero

    Soucek > Barkley (-4)

    Please tell me I’m insane!

    1. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Only Wilson to Aguero. Soucek will be in most of teams by GW 9.

  18. Trippier Hazard
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Question to mods: On GW deadline days and day before - is it possible to post a tweet saying what time various articles (team news, scout picks, etc) are estimated to be posted on?

    1. No Professionals
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Decent idea

    2. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’ll ask.

    3. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Today, we've got Spot the Differential coming at lunch, Scout Picks 2:30pm, Team News round-up at 4:30pm (although many entries on the Team News Page will be done before then anyway) and the Gameweek Guide at 5pm.

  19. The Head-Ake
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Just here to remind you that:

    DEADLINE FOR TRANSFERS IS TONIGHT, NOT TOMORROW.

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Shhh

    2. The Hunt
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mods...please delete this post. Mini league rivals missing Friday deadlines are some of the highlights of my year.

      1. PompeyUpNorth!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Agreed. Deadline reminders should be banned imo

  20. Mr. O'Connell
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Back end of last season Leicester matched Arsenals 3-5-2 formation. Barnes started on the bench. Given he played 90 mins last night, do we think this will happen again?

    Probably a moot point as I think I will sell regardless.

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Increases Justin's appeal if thats the case

    2. ElliotJHP
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Ah urge to take the hit to move to Grealish is increasing.

      Vardy could be out, maybe Barnes up top - wishful thinking!

  21. Live Lad
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    who should be the first sub?
    (1) Mitchell
    (2) Bissouma

    1. JaydenLFC87
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      That order

    2. The Head-Ake
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      2

  22. JaydenLFC87
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I’ve the the spare cash to do Bamford to Kane this week for free, no brainer right??

    The alternative is Davis > Werner but that would mean dropping to the bench Mitchell Chilwell or Jota who is think will start this weekend

    1. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I would.

    2. mad_beer ✅
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Easy decision. Go for it.

  23. drughi
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Jrod>Foden for free or save transfer and have ayling come in for Jrod

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Save. Foden will frustrate

      1. drughi
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        probably the case yes could do well against west ham though

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Jrod to foden is backwards imo

      1. drughi
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Sure is but leaves money to get chilwell next week. I really wanna keep jrod though, hope its minor as I will most likely keep

    3. 21VK12
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Ayling I would say. Jrod good for long term and decent fixtures

      1. drughi
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        cheers

  24. 21VK12
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    On WC, Team:
    Martinez - Steele
    Lamptey - Ayling - Kilman - Digne - Targett
    Mane - Salah(c) - Son - Rodriguez - Bisouma
    DCL - Brewster - Aguero
    0$ itb

    A) gtg and do Mane to kdb next week
    B)Mane + Brewster --> Grealish/Zaha + Werner
    C)Mane --> Bruno + 1$ ITB for more flexibility the next week(s)

    1. The Head-Ake
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B imo

      1. The Head-Ake
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Didn't see A, so A

  25. Mr. O'Connell
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Barnes 》 Grealish [3, 5, 2]
    Barnes & Brewster 》 Soucek & Kane (-4) [3, 4, 3]

  26. The Head-Ake
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    1 FT and 2.2 ITB. Save for 2 FT?

    McCarthy
    Lamptey | TAA | Walker-Peters | Mitchell
    Mahrez | Salah (c) | Havertz | Son
    Werner | DCL |

    Martin | Bissouma | Davis | Justin

  27. Rinseboy
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    team look ok for this week?

    Martinez
    Lamptey Robbo Saiss Semedo
    Son Salah Grealish Jrod
    DCL Kane
    Steer Barnes Mitchell Brewster

    1. The Head-Ake
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yep

    2. JaydenLFC87
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Good team similar to mine

  28. FPL_BUCCANEER
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    McCarthy Steer
    TAA Taylor Justin Mitchell Vinagre**
    Salah Son JRod* Soucek Bissouma
    Kane Werner DCL

    1FT 0.6 ITB

    Plan was to do Vinagre -> Lamptey, and I still think it makes more sense given JRod could start either this week or definitely next week?

    Still have WC but not planning to use yet..

  29. MallettMan
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    G2G? 0.2 ITB and 2FT

    Martinez (Ryan)
    TAA Justin Mitchell (Taylor, Dunne)
    Son Mane Auba Zaha (Diangana)
    Wilson Bamford Ings

    Shall I sort the defence out somehow?

    1. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Wildcard tbh

      1. MallettMan
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        oh god dont say that ive already used it , was fairly happy with team

    2. FPL_BUCCANEER
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      With 2FT I'd be getting in a City/Villa attacker, or Kane.

    3. 21VK12
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Auba and Mitchell to Grealish and Robbo/Digne and use money next week for upgrade ?

  30. JaydenLFC87
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Start who should start ?

    A) Castagne

    B) Chilwell