Eliteserien Runde 7 Hot Chip

Let’s get right down to business – I’m playing Rich Uncle in DGW7 for the simple fact that the three best teams all play twice and on paper have very winnable fixtures. I’m more concerned about goals than clean sheets this week and outside the template options I think there are some players not many people are talking about who could potentially boost my rank.

I’m deciding to let the stats guide me more this season and because of that I’m not looking at this Rich Uncle team to protect me against others (in relation EO) – I’m looking to hit it out the park, regardless of who else everyone goes for. 

My team isn’t complete, but I’m fairly set on 8 or 9 of my 11 players. That being said, let’s jump into the analysis and see what the results say:

(I’m not including values this week, rather illustrating ownership % as RU is the focus of this article)
(FP = Fantasy Points excluding BFP)
(/90 = Total minutes/90 e.g. 389 minutes = 4.32 games. Even if the 389 minutes were spread over 5 games, the player’s /90 value will be 4.32)

GOALKEEPER

XI:

• Anders Kristiansen (2.0%) – Sarpsborg won’t concede many this week and might even grab a clean sheet against Brann. Kristiansen offers save points as well as clean sheet potential and allows me to load up on Glimt, Vålerenga and Molde players in other positions

Bench:

• Sondre Rossbach (7.9%) – I don’t have the space for Kristoffer Klaesson (24.2%) and I don’t want Viljar Myhra (12.8%) so the Odd goalkeeper was the only other DGW goalkeeper to choose from. Plus, he’s quite good and while clean sheets will be unlikely, this is the Eliteserien where results have a tendency to never quite go the way they are expected to do so… 

Others:

• Nikita Khaykin (6.8%) & Andreas Linde (15.6%) – both good keepers playing for good sides. If you aren’t fielding three Glimt players already, then Khaykin could be a good choice. The same can be said about Linde, though I think Molde are quite likely to concede in both games. That is of course just my opinion!

SGW Option:

• Sean McDermott (15.5) –Has made more saves and won more points than any other goalkeeper and faces an Odd side that simply don’t look like scoring. He’s a great option that will more than likely go under the radar due to the nature of this Runde. The temptation is incredibly high to go with him, but I think Kristiansen edges him due to playing an extra game

DEFENCE

The above table lists relevant KPIs, illustrating the relative effectiveness of both obvious and less obvious choices for this DGW have been so far. The dataset is potentially skewed due to varying numbers of games played, but we can still derive enough worth to be able to identify some standout options:

XI:

• Christian Dahle Borchgrevink (44.3%) – look at all that green. He’s dominating every metric as well being on corners, throw-ins and is winning fouls for fun. The Vålerenga right-back has been the best attacking defender in the league so far and he’s a very easy pick on RU
• Alfons Sampsted (14.4%) – FP/90 is beaten only by Kristoffer Haugen and has played 5 key passes – one fewer than Borchgrevink. His edge over Fredrik André Bjørkan lies in his corner duties and affinity towards crossing the ball/trying a long pass. Bjørkan is a much better dribbler than anyone else but what have those dribbles amounted to? Both are decent options for this week, though I think Sampsted offers more in general, is largely overlooked and has been producing enough for us to consider him replacing Bjørkan in general and not just for this DGW
• Lars-Christopher Vilsvik (1.8%) – I’ve recommended him before and I’ll recommend him again – he’s a good player and despite being in a defensively suspect Strømsgodset side, he is my third and final playing defender for this Runde. His FP/90 is low but that hasn’t stopped him from playing more accurate crosses than Borchgrevink (7-6) or having the third highest xA value (0.84). They do face league-leaders Rosenborg, but the last time they kept a clean sheet was in Runde 2, conceding 10 goals since that time. We’ve already discussed how Strømsgodset have looked good attacking-wise, and the data does speak to a return or two coming Vilsvik’s way sooner or later

Bench:

• Joachim Thomassen (2.9%) – If I could have Jonatan Tollås Nation (16.5%) I would, but I already have three Vålerenga players for this week and despite his good run of form he just misses out. Thomassen plays out wide for Sarpsborg and despite his age (33) he’s still capable of putting in a good shift week in, week out. His combined xG and xA value comes in at 0.73 which is actually higher than Sampsted. Sarpsborg are a team that are tough to break down and outside of the top four clubs in the division, have the best defence 
• Kristoffer Haugen (4.2%) – If he plays, I’m expecting him to score. That’s where I am right now. I’m not looking at the Molde defender to provide a lot of support and whip some nice balls into the box – I want him to get the ball and shoot. It’s that simple. My main reservation with him is I’m not too sure he plays both games and Molde really did not look comfortable against Sandefjord last season, and they come into this hectic week of football on the back of a defeat and a draw in their last two. Don’t get me wrong – I see Molde taking away at least 4pts from these games, but there’s a potential banana skin there and that combined with Haugen’s potential to play just one game makes me view him more as a backup asset rather than primary

Others:

• Magnar Ødegaard (2.6%) – Never going to set the world alight but probably the second best Sarpsborg defender to go for and will play a decent long ball or two. He gets on the ball more than Thomassen and is part of a solid defence.
• Sam Adekugbe (5.5%) & Jonatan Tollås Nation – If was going to play two Vålerenga defenders I’d go for Borchgrevink and Tollås Nation, but Adekugbe has posted decent enough stats for us to talk about him. He’s been unlucky not to register an assist yet and only Bjørkan has played more accurate passes in the opposition half/90 (27 – 31.17)

SGW Option:

• Sturla Ottesen (2.5%) – He’s having a good season isn’t he? Yaw Amankwah looks likely to miss Stabæk’s Monday evening tie with Tromsø so barring anything particularly unusual, Ottesen will start yet again. He’s in good form and I really do think Stabæk have an exciting player on their hands. Tromsø regrettably look like they’re going to concede a couple of goals every time they play, and while the home side may not score too many, they’re a compact unit who should find it easy enough to see off the newly promoted side without too much trouble. 

MIDFIELD

XI: 

• Aron Dønnum (41.0%) – You don’t need me to tell you why. The table is pretty conclusive. He’s the most dangerous-looking player in the league right now and should have more goals and assists to his name and yet he’s still been ridiculously productive. He offers threat across the board, impressing in every metric as well as taking corners and drawing free-kicks from his advancing runs. He’s a brilliant winger and a no-brainer for this week
• Amor Layouni (4.5%) – On the other wing we have Layouni. He may not be everyone’s cup of tea but statistically speaking he’s a solid pick, DGW or not. Not as productive as his teammate but still offers a decent goal and assist threat. The newly signed left winger completes my Vålerenga triple up as even if Osame Sahraoui (5.8%) is used at some point this week, his erratic form and recent injury make him an unlikely threat to Layouni’s chances of starting and besides, even if Layouni is given a mere half an hour against Odd, I’m backing him to return
• Johan Hove (2.6%) – Despite having the 7th highest RPS value, the Strømsgodset man finds his way into my team for a number of reasons. Has a respectable xG + xA value of 2.08, has created 3 chances from 3 key passes, averaging 20 opposition half passes per game and can certainly play far, far better. I’ve already mentioned Rosenborg’s defensive frailties, but I also think Bodø/Glimt are far from the finished article when it comes to defending. They are letting other teams at them more than they did last season and have already lost(!) – 1-0 vs. Odd – and in that game they failed to score a league goal for the first time since 2019. It would be a truly shocking result if Godset were able to steal 3pts away from the champions, but I think Hove has a bigger chance of getting a return in these games than most people would be willing to recognise
• Sondre Sørli (13.1%) – The numbers dictate there is more to come from this guy and I’m happy to support that hypothesis by going with him for this week. That is unless I change my mind and go with the statistically much better Fredrik Aursnes instead. We all know what role Sørli offers – running down the right wing before whipping the ball into the box hoping to find some eligible part of Erik Botheim. Like Aursnes he also takes corners, plays regular key passes and is an experienced player at this level. I think he gets into my team ahead of Aursnes mainly down to recent form over the last few games as well as being a more heavily relied upon member of the team for Glimt, than Aursnes is for Molde. If Glimt score, there’s a good chance it’s because of Sørli and I think they score in both fixtures this week
• Magnus Wolff Eikrem (9.9%) – He’s normally hard to get into your team because of his insane value, but RU means he’s in. He’s an absolute maestro and has some silly stats to back his reputation up. He’s a wonderful player to watch and the best thing about him is that even if he’s given a 20-minute cameo, he can crop up with a return or two. I’m not sure if he starts in both games but he should play in both and like I said, I’m not worried if he’s not even given 90 minutes over both fixtures – he doesn’t need it

Others: 

• Fredrik Aursnes (43.0%) – Again, look at the numbers. The guy is great and no wonder he’s wanted by Atletico Madrid. The question is would I rather have him over one of Sørli or Hove? Honestly, it’s a tough decision. I’m inclined to suggest Aursnes has been a tad fortunate to get as many returns as he has done whilst simultaneously implying that a Hove-haul is on the horizon. I can see more upside of backing Hove for these games and if that decision comes back to bite me then so be it
• Ola Brynhildsen (10.7%) – Been a regular this season and has been quietly scoring a good number of points. He’s another Molde attacking midfielder that offers a lot of potential and there’s certainly merit in going with him over Aursnes

SGW Option:

• Kristoffer Zachariassen (50.6%) – If you aren’t going to load up on DGW players than Zachariassen is obviously the guy you want to fill that gap. I do believe he is overperforming and his current form is unsustainable, however. I can see better options for the double, but I can also understand why people will be scared to go without him. I’m going all in here and looking to optimise wherever I can and that means going without the highest scoring player in the game for this round. He’s in form and could easily get a couple of goals this week but at the same time if he blanked I probably wouldn’t be too surprised. That being said, he’s still clearly the best SGW midfielder to choose from.

FORWARDS

XI:

• Ohikhuaeme Omoijuanfo (27.4%) – Yeah, this guy is good. Even if he blanks two games in a row, you take him out at your peril. He may not score every week, but he’s got more braces and hat-tricks in his game than anyone else in the league. He’s the kind of Fantasy asset you leave in your team without concern, knowing full well that sometimes he’ll score you 2pts, while other times he’ll score 20. Good stats, good form and good fixtures (kind of). He’s the standout forward for this DGW
• Erik Botheim (50.4%) – A lot of people are going to be disappointed when this guy stops scoring every week. And I think that’s going to happen sooner rather than later. He’s another player that’s overperforming but in lieu of any competition for that second forward spot, he has to be included. He’s a talented player that’s taking his chances and while I do believe his goalscoring run will come to a rather abrupt end at some point, he represents good value for returns this week

Bench: 

• Fred Friday (7.0%) – Has two fixtures and doesn’t look awful. That’s the gist of this decision. Has Hove behind him and leads the line for a very attack minded Godset side. Hove gets the starting place in my XI as I think it’s quite obvious he has more to his game than Friday, but both are certainly decent choices

Others:

• Ibrahima Koné (3.5%) – Probably should have more than one goal and actually offers decent assist potential. He’s had more shots than any of the other forwards but actually has the worst shooting accuracy (25%). He’s also played 5 key passes (joint top) yet has failed to create a single viable goalscoring chance. He’s potentially a good choice and If I was a braver man I’d play him ahead of Botheim this week, but a combination of productivity and fixtures makes that quite difficult for me to see past the Glimt man

SGW Option:

• Veton Berisha (28.9%) – He’s playing better than most people are giving him credit for and isn’t offering inflated numbers in regard to his returns. Berisha remains a top striker and can score against absolutely anyone on any given day. There’s more to come from this guy, that’s for sure

CONCLUSION

Whatever you do, make sure you understand why you’re doing it. Sounds simple, but sometimes we overcomplicate that logic. I’m playing Rich Uncle because I wasn’t happy with the amount of DGW players I had in my team and had planned to do this from GW1. I’m also approaching RU as a way to make a lot of points other people will miss out on, rather than consolidate my position. This is potentially quite risky, but I feel as though I’ve mitigated enough risk as well as maximising potential gains elsewhere.

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