Spot the Differential

Three budget FPL differentials to consider for Gameweek 13 and beyond

Gameweek 13 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned and somewhat unfashionable picks at Watford, Brighton and Hove Albion and Burnley who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

JOSHUA KING

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £5.6m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: lei | CHE | MCI | bre | bur

Joshua King (£5.6m) has slotted seamlessly into Watford’s attack this season, and has particularly impressed following the arrival of Claudio Ranieri.

Despite a disappointing loan spell at Everton last term, where he could only find 138 Premier League minutes, he has since thrived as the Hornets main centre-forward. Prior to Ranieri’s appointment, he assisted three times against Norwich City and Newcastle United, and has followed that up with four goals in four games under the Italian, including a hat-trick at Goodison Park. It could have been more, too, as he won the opening penalty against Manchester United last weekend, only for Ismaila Sarr (£6.0m) to miss.

Notably, over the last four Gameweeks no player in any position – not even Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) – can better him for goal attempts (17) or big chances (seven), while only the Egyptian has more penalty box touches in that time.

Life at Vicarage Road has been anything but dull since Ranieri’s arrival. In his five games in charge, Watford have scored nine goals and conceded 10, with a visit to a Leicester City side up next who have failed to keep a single clean sheet since the opening day. In fact, the Foxes’ 21 goals conceded is the joint-third worst in the division, while the expected goals (xG) tally is only slightly better. The schedule to follow is admittedly tough, but eases from Gameweek 16 onwards, with games against Brentford (a), Burnley (a), Crystal Palace (h), Wolverhampton Wanderers (a) and West Ham United (h) before the end of the year.

King has delivered a string of impressive displays of late, and given his appealing longer-term schedule, could be the pick of the budget forwards over the festive period.

TARIQ LAMPTEY

Why Duffy was benched and Foden’s fine form: FPL notes from Brighton v Man City 2
  • FPL ownership: 0.8%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: LEE | whu | sou | TOT | WOL

Tariq Lamptey (£4.4m) has been Brighton and Hove Albion’s stand-out performer since returning from injury, and was unlucky not to get on the scoresheet against Aston Villa last weekend, when he was denied by a fine save from Emiliano Martinez (£5.5m).

The youngster was substituted late on, with Villa scoring twice soon after his departure, as Graham Potter continues to manage his recovery following his long-term hamstring problem. As a result, he surely won’t start every game in December, but providing you have a strong bench, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue, especially given his budget price tag.

Lamptey’s positioning since returning from injury has been hugely encouraging, playing very far up the right flank and often hugging the touchline. Because of that, since making his first start in Gameweek 11, amongst all defenders, only Reece James (£6.1m) and Ben Chilwell (£6.0m) have touched the ball more often in the opponent’s penalty area, with his four shots in the box only bettered by Chelsea’s wing-backs and team-mate Antonio Rudiger (£5.9m).

Albion now face a Leeds United side who have struggled in attack all season, scoring just seven Premier League goals in seven games in the absence of Patrick Bamford (£7.7m). Encouragingly, for those considering investing, their meeting with Marcelo Bielsa’s side marks a reasonably favourable run, too, with matches against Southampton (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (h) and Brentford (h) in the coming weeks.

Lamptey has been a real threat down the wing for Brighton in recent matches, and with an ownership of just 0.8%, could be an effective defensive differential.

CHRIS WOOD

Scout Notes 4
  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £6.7m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: TOT | wol | new | WHU | WAT

Chris Wood (£6.7m) may have had a slow start to the season, but has now netted two goals in his last three appearances.

The New Zealand international has been a model of consistency since joining Burnley from Leeds United back in August 2017, scoring at least 10 goals in each of his four top-flight campaigns.

This season, he has posted team-leading totals for goal attempts, shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances and penalty area touches, while his performances over the last three Gameweeks have helped his team beat Brentford and take points from in-form Chelsea and Crystal Palace. That’s coincided with Wood and Maxwel Cornet (£6.1m) being paired together up front, a period which has seen Sean Dyche’s side score more goals than any other team bar Liverpool.

Looking ahead to Gameweek 13, Wood could find some joy against a Tottenham Hotspur backline which is still adapting to a new style of play under Antonio Conte, while fixtures to follow against Wolverhampton Wanderers (a), Newcastle United (a), West Ham United (h) and Watford (h) offer further encouragement that he can kick-on.

Burnley appear to have moved up a gear in recent weeks, with more confidence on the ball, and given that Wood has scored two in his last three, could be a nice differential pick for our frontlines.

1,032 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Fernandito
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Chilwell to:

    A Alonso
    B Dias
    C Rudiger
    D Other

    Have James TAA and Canelo

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      C
      D Lamptey if you can put extra funds to good use

    4. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    5. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    6. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  2. Pompel
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Best 4.4m 5th mid :

    A) Brownhill
    B) Bissouma
    C) Gilmour

    Cheers!

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      C

    2. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Brighton gave nice run

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Bissouma's bail ends on 6th December...

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A - 90 mins every week (nothing else mind)

      1. Pompel
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Nailedness most important, as 5th mid mostly stuck on bench anyway

    4. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      C

    5. RogDog_jimmy
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I’d get Gilmour if it was picking now i think.

    6. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Txs guys - Gilmour seems the most popular!

    7. The Riders of Mohan
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Bought Gilmour in at GW6 didn't play for 6 games. Transferred out last week and he got 5 points.
      May be playing now under Smith.

  3. RogDog_jimmy
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Lost in the old post….any ideas for hits?

    Did the Chilwell>James move already so I don’t forget before the rise.

    Ramsdale
    TAA, Cancelo, James, Duffy
    Salah, Jota, Raphinha, Gallagher
    Vardy, Jimenez

    (Foster, Antonio, Brownhill, Livramento)
    1.8itb, 0 FTs.

    Start Antonio over Duffy?

    Anything worth a hit?
    a/ Brownhill > Cornet (bench Duffy)
    b/ Duffy > Alonso
    c/ ???

    1. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Don't think there's anything worth a hit, I'd play Antonio over Duffy.

      1. RogDog_jimmy
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers. I think it’ll be more fun doing that for sure.

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      no hit needed imo

    3. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No I would hold, but if you don't fancy Antonio then B

  4. Crunchie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I am sorry, been completely out of the loop this week.

    So I made an early transfer as I knew I would be, for the only 2nd time in three years), and went Dias>James for price swing.

    Then I hear Chilwell is out, poor lad. But his price hasn't gone down yet

    So that transfer has backfired a bit because of my bench

    Any news on how long Firmino and Chilwell are out for or is it still speculation? I guess we have to take Chilwell out until Jan for now?

    Ramsdale, Foster
    TAA, James,Cancelo (Chilwell, Livramento)
    Salah, Gallagher, Foden, Saka (Normann)
    Kane, Jiminez (Broja)

    I think i will do Alonso for -4

    But if Foden is not fit, then Jota -8.

    This season is getting silly lol

    1. RogDog_jimmy
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Chilly was close to a rise when he got hurt so I guess he’s needed a lot to get all the way to a drop.

      Still no official work on his timeline - but so far ligament damage has been mentioned. Even 2-3 weeks is a lot of games at this time.

      No idea on Firmino, but Jota was on the bench for UCL so must have been fit enough.
      Chilly > Alonso is a fun move for me.

      Rough luck with the injuries!

      1. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yes lol, I suppose if Foden is out and not playing no.9 it stops the pep roulette.

        Keep taking hits every week at the moment 🙂

        Thanks for the Chilwell heads up. It does sound like January doesn't it.?

        AT least I can wait until tomorrow, I hope foden is fi as it is an easy -4.

        But I just can't bring Broja, Livra or Normann on this week 🙂 I think Jota could get 4 more points than Normann or Broja and the same with Alonso with Livra.

        Thanks for responding

        1. Dammit_182
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Hi Crunchie,

          I just did foden - Jota as it looks like Jota might rise. I’m holding on chilwell until tomorrow’s press conference but realistically he will be out for a long time. Really feel for him and hope he can make a speedy recovery

  5. GoonerSteve
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Best move here? 2fts 0.2 bank.

    Ramsdale Foster
    TAA, Cancelo, James, Chilwell*, Livramento
    Salah, Gallagher, Raphina, Sarr*, Douglas L
    Toney, Antonio, Ronaldo

    A) Sarr to ESR, Chilwell to Alonso (bench Antonio)
    B) same as above but Rudiger
    C) Chilwell to Lamptey, Sarr to Jota.
    D) something else.

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  6. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    1. Benrahma/Antonio-> Jota/King (-4).
    2. Chilwell-> James.
    WC intact. Can make the Chelsea move next GW. Leaning 1 atm.

    Sanchez.
    TAA, Cancelo, Rudiger.
    Benrahma, Salah, Raphinha, Gallagher.
    Antonio, Jimenez, Vardy.
    McCarthy, Bissouma, Livramento, Chilwell.
    1ft, 0.4m ITB. WC available.

    1. RogDog_jimmy
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Probably Chil > James then bench Bennie for me.

  7. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Sá, Chilwell to Ramsdale, R.James for -4?

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Just JAmes

    2. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Alonso for free

  8. Crystal Alice
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Is Jota’s price rising tonight?

    1. More Cowbell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Gonna be a close one, see what happens in the next hour

    2. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Are you Martin Long's Daughter? 🙂

  9. More Cowbell
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    How do people feel about Foden > Jota

    Sensible or just hurting/points chasing from the weekend gone?

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I am just waiting for team news as I am already on a -4 in all probability

  10. 03farmboy
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    How long is chilwell out for?

    Who to swap for James or Alonso

    1. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Not confirmed buts suspected to be a few weeks at the very least and could be allot longer. James.

  11. Garfield1001
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    James or Alonso as chilwell replacement?

    1. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      James

  12. Bishopool
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    a) Callagher
    b) Rowe

    I have Saka.

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Gallagher.

  13. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    What does everyone make of Pukki as an option over the next few weeks?

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Not much thought given so a no for me

    2. ChelseaKTBFF
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Ew

    3. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Im glad with him already in team last week, more 8 pointers incoming

    4. Dammit_182
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      He is a cheap punt and should play most games over Christmas.

  14. ChelseaKTBFF
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Antonio Havertz Dunk > Jiminez Jota James -4

    Yay or nay

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      yes as long as you're happy playing Jiminez for just two games.

      1. ChelseaKTBFF
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Why just 2 games

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Pool and City after.

    2. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yeh

  15. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    thoughts? have kane, thanks

    son and livra/williams to James and jota -4?
    doing livra allows me to get alonso for christensen the following week?

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I dont understand, sorry

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Don't like the hit that much but I'd sell Livra just to lose Christo.

      1. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Oh i get it now lol.

        Do livra as there is no point keeping this week

  16. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Chilwell to?

    A Alonso
    B James

    1. ChelseaKTBFF
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      James

    2. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I think 90% have said B

    3. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    4. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    5. FPLMACKEM
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Cheers. Its pretty unanimous.

    6. Bruin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

  17. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Anyone knew if foden trained today ?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Don't think City trained.

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Ok thanks yeh can’t see anything - unclear about foden

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Guesswork and Pep, 50/50 probably.

  18. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Are people doing chilly to James tonight to avoid price rise?

    1. RogDog_jimmy
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Just did yep.

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yeh makes sense ta

  19. 03farmboy
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I have two free transfers this week, what’s the best moves?

    Chilwell out for James/ alonso
    Foden or Raphinha out for jota

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Chilly to james and foden (if injured) to jota

  20. jia you
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    My least appealing hit in a while is Chilwell to Mitchell just now, what the 'ell, GL for the GW all 🙂

  21. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Bench one?

    A Duffy
    B Antonio

    1. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. DycheDycheBaby
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  22. Bezz82
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Do we think Chilwell will drop in price tonight? I know he’s only on around -70% for the drop but I’ll lose 0.1.

    Would rather wait an know the full scale of the injury in the hope it’s not as bad as everyone is reporting

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Probably survives tonight. How long or how many GWs would tempt you to keep?
      Chances are he's out longer than what your threshold is.

      1. Bezz82
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        If it’s only a few weeks then I’ll keep him in. Although I can’t see it being any less than that!!

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          A few weeks is like 5 GWs, has to go.

    2. jia you
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      never mind the 0.1...a playing bench and no other injuries and you're fine to wait...I've pulled the trigger as only have Livra as playing sub atm and also have Foden who is a doubt.

      1. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah me too. Might be a -8 this week

  23. nikzgfx
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Azpi and Antonio to Cancelo and Benteke? Leaves me enough in the bank to do Mbuemo to Bowen soon. Already have James.

    1. nikzgfx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      For -4 this week.

    2. Vlekz
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Not bad.

    3. Nightf0x
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Sanchez (foster)
      Matip rudi cancelo taa (white)
      Town mbeumo salah raph
      Vardy jimi (antonio)

      Which?

      A) town to bsilva/mora/galagher
      B) town mbeumo -4 to bsilva/mora galagher
      C) matip to james/reglion/davies/alonso
      D) matip town -4 to jota/bsilva reglion/davies or moura alonso/reglion/davies.

      1. nikzgfx
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        C with James

    4. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Chilwell to Alonso ( have James already) and Foden to Jota for a hit?

      1. Vlekz
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Dont have anyone else for jota? If you have someone like raph I would do chilwell to Reguilion and raph to jota

        • TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          If you think Foden is useless now.

      2. Vlekz
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Is Antonio+sissoko to foden + king worth -8?
          (Gives me king + livramento as bench options through the busy december period instead of sissoko + livra)

          If I don't do it this week I will definitely do it for a -4 next week

          1. Fulchester's New Centr…
            • 6 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Noo

        • jia you
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          McArthur + Chilwell + Havertz to Cornet + Mitchell + Bowen (-8)
          Doesn't look great on paper does it but at least I've gotten rid of a couple of players who look like being out for some time.

          1. TorresMagic™
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Deadwood out wins.

          2. RogDog_jimmy
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Can you hold on McArthur > Bowen one week (or three).

            1. Crunchie
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              2 years, 4 months ago

              Bit early for Bowen for me

        • FPLMACKEM
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Is James likely to go up in price tonight?

          1. Il Capitano
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            yep

        • HD7
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          I am thinking about Dier as a Spurs defender... talk to me

          Need the money to put Ronaldo next to Kane very soon. Im not selling Kane before GW18

          1. TorresMagic™
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Don't expect clean sheets.

            1. FPL Pillars
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 4 months ago

              This 🙂

        • Pep Roulette
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Jesus or Benteke?