Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

  1. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Am i G2G or take a -8? 2.3m ITB. Cheers

    DDG
    TAA - James - Rudiger - Livra.
    Mount - Salah - Gallagher - BSilva
    Vardy - Dennis

    (Steele) - Raphinha - Hwang - Johnson

    1. Bobby Crush
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      looks ok that

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        thanks

    2. Cheeky Onion
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Certainly no -8, squad looks quite solid considering this weeks headaches

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        cheers i was fortunate to only have son

        1. Andy_Social
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Vardy played 90 mins on Thursday. I'd still be wary.

          1. Bobby_Baggio
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            He'll play

  2. chelseabrad
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Are either Raph > Bowen or Livra > Dalot worth a -4? Got 11 playing already..

    Will lose .1 on Raph dropping tonight, Dalot & Bowen look to be going up tonight too

    1. Bobby Crush
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I wouldn't

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Cant you do Raph > Bowen after deadline but before price drop so then you dont take a -4?

      1. chelseabrad
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        True, risky but a good shout

      2. Cheeky Onion
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Could be a good shout. Although I think this week has shown how risky early transfers can be

    3. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thinking exactly the same with Raph>Bowen as extra -4 move. Not sure yet.

  3. George James
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Already on below team for -4.

    Best option?

    A) Son >> Mount -8

    B) leave it and have Livra and Sissoko to save the day from the bench?

    1. Saosin
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. Sun God Nika
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      depends on what your actual team is now

  4. Cheeky Onion
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    On WC with 0.0 ITB

    DDG
    TAA - Cancelo - James - Dalot - White
    Salah - Jota - Silva - Bowen
    Ronaldo

    Gunnarsson - Gray - Dennis - Locadia

    Not sure about United triple up and also what to do with Jota?

    1. RamboRN
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Hard one. Jota could be mount but then you would probably want jota back for Newcastle.

  5. SuperG
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Why can’t Pep answer a straight question?

    Foden and Jesus - will they play?

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Got to love owning cit players

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        One big headache

    2. MJF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Why should he? One of the great advantages of having a squad as deep as is the opposition manager is left guessing as to the line up he'll be facing under an hour before kick off.

    3. TKC07
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No plans to change.
      No plans to impress...!!

    4. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      shock: he's not in the business of giving FPL managers team news

      1. Andy_Social
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I thought he was being quite straightforward and honest.

  6. Kodap
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    -8 hit to do Sanchez > DDG? Will enable me to field 10 at minimum, 11 if Jota/ESR play..

    Sanchez
    TAA - Rudiger - Cancelo - James
    Salah - Jota - Bernardo
    Antonio - Dennis - Broja

    Steele - ESR - Son - Lamptey

    1. Sun God Nika
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      no...

  7. 420king
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Need help:

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo James
    Salah Raphinha Son* Jota*
    Antonio King Toney*
    (Foster Johnson* Livramento Brownhill)
    2FT, 2.3m ITB

    A) Son, Jota, Toney to Bowen, Bernardo, Ronaldo for-4
    B) Son, Toney to Bowen, Ronaldo for free, start Livramento, keep Jota

  8. Defcons are for Kinnear
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Why is everyone suggesting King over Dennis?

    1. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      better underlying stats innit

      1. Defcons are for Kinnear
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Hmmm. A tough one because Dennis is bringing home the points

    2. MJF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Groupthink?

    3. hotine
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I agree. I have gone Dennis when he was only 0.1 cheaper. I think he just has better form currently. Happy to admit if I’m wrong in a few weeks but for me it’s the better pick and a bit of a differential

    4. Trane84
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      He's had a pen recently too.

  9. TomSaints
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Fernandes, I missed your opening day hatrick. Time to remind everyone of your presence with another 20 pointer

  10. Mane Mane Mane
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Which is the best move?

    My team at the moment is…
    Mendy
    Alonso, TAA, Cancelo
    Salah, Raph, ESR, Jota
    Wood, Hwang, ASM

    Foster, Liv, Son, Lamptey

    A) Mendy, Son, ASM to De Gea, Bowen, Ronaldo. (-4)

    B) Son, Jota, Hwang to Bowen, Gilmour, Ronaldo. (-4)

    C) Son, Hwang to Bowen and King

    1. Mane Mane Mane
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      With B it allows me to make further moves I forgot to add.

  11. Hazardous1983
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Best son replacement...

    Rashford sancho bowen gundogan bernardo or foden

  12. Diddi89
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Hi all, 10k rank and not used wildcard.
    I am a arsenal fan and moget not be objective here so help!

    GTG

    DDG

    Def: TAA | JAMES | ALONSO | CANCELO
    Mid: SALAH C | JOTA | GUNDO | Bsilva
    St: RONALDO | DENNIS

    BENCH: ESR, white and Perica.
    Should I start with ESR or white, for who (Dennis)?

    Believe on CS incoming and Also if ESR is fit a danger at home against caballero in goal.

    Thanks for feedback.

  13. Releasebreaks
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Which one to go for long term, especially over festive period
    Money no problem

    A- Bernando
    B - Jota

  14. DAZZ
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Raph > Bowen -4 makes sense to bench Jota and play Bowen?

    1. I Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'm considering it.

    2. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thinking the same without Jota.

  15. Gandalf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Got ESR and Jota and only 1 starting sub.

    A. Hold and hope ESR plays
    B. Johnson > Dalot -4
    C. Jota > Mount -4

    1. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      D. Jota > Bowen

    2. BlzE_94
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'm in the exact same position and I'm going to hold.

      de Gea
      TAA Cancelo James
      Salah Jota B.Silva Bowen ESR
      Vardy King

      Steele Livramento Reguilon Locadia

  16. damiang2233
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on who to bench? Currently on this

    Ramsdale
    TAA Dalot Cancelo
    Salah ESM Silva Bowen
    Dennis Antonio Vardy

    Sanchez Rudiger Bissouma (game off) Johnson (Injured)

    So basically should I play Rudiger for someone? Thoughts?

  17. Stranger Mings
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Bench a) jota or b) ESr? Basically which is most likely to play?

  18. Kane Train
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Best bench cover?

    A) Sissoko
    B) Gilmour

  19. Hazardous1983
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    How does this look

    Sanchez (steele)
    Taa cancelo james (alonso livra)
    Bernardo jota smith rowe salah (c)
    Ronaldo dennis king

    Done a -4 should.i do another -4 anywhere

  20. Nightf0x
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Rashford good differential ?

  21. Royal5
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Is Jota confirmed out?

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Apparently they will train today. Stay tuned for pictures.

    2. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Not confirmed but orange flagged now on FPL

  22. winchester
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    hey lads GTG or anything worth a hit? cheers.

    ramsdale
    taa - cancelo - james - livra
    salah(C) - bernardo - jota
    antonio - dennis - hwang

    (foster - gilmour - reguilon - son)

    a) GTG
    b) jota -> bowen
    c) son -> mount/bowen?
    d) hwang -> watkins

  23. Redranger
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A) Vardy & Gundo > Ronaldo & Bowen
    B) Vardy, Raph & Rudiger > Ronaldo, Bowen & Dalot (-4)
    C) Vardy, Raph & Antonio > Ronaldo, Bowen & Broja/Benteke (-4)
    D) Play WC

  24. HD7
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    On -4 currently. Cornet news doesnt look good for this GW

    A) Take another -4 Cornet to Bowen/Gallagher

    B) Play Livra and hope Cornet is ok for Watford midweek

    Ramsdale
    Trent Rudi Cancelo James
    Saka Salah Bernardo Cornet*
    Antonio Ronaldo

    Steele Livra Sissoko Scarlett

  25. fijuhmon
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Put in order: Watkins, Raphinha and Livra.

    1. fricky_
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Raph, Livramento, Watkins

    2. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Watkins, Raph Livra for me
      Id always favour the attackers in this sort of scenario
      1 goal usually takes out the defender whereas an attacker may assist OR score
      Granted Livra is attacking

  26. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Teams a mess
    Thoughts? 2FT 0.3itb
    Guatia
    Taa Cancelo James Reguilon* Johnson*
    Salah Jota*Foden* ESR* Bissouma*
    Wilson Kane* Davis

    A) Kane/Foden/B.Johnson > King/Bernardo/Dalot 3.0m itb
    B) Kane/Davis/Reguilon > Cr7/Broja/Dalot

    Or any other thoughts

    1. Scotty Dog
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Can you not do
      Kane,foden, Johnson > cr7, bsilva/bowen, dalot

    2. Scotty Dog
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Could also be an opportunity to bring in ddg

  27. Gr3g
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I have been away for a while and I seem to face some problems with members area and premium members articles.
    For articles I'm asked to pay for premium membership, which I have done.
    When I click on members area, it's as of I'm logged out and can't login.
    Anybody is facing similar issues?

    Thanks

  28. space
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    It's ridiculous how the team news section is never up to date on this site on a Friday afternoon. Half the teams haven't been updated since Wednesday!

  29. Fit_to_drop
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    No hits taken, 2 transfers in Bilva and DDG

    Is Jota to Bowen/Mount for a -4 likely to play dividends in the short term?

    1. DAZZ
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Depends if Jota is fine for Newcastle game

      1. Fit_to_drop
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers - ill just leave him in there for now but fear mount might haul.

  30. JONALDINHO
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramsdale
    Trent • Cancelo • Dias • Alonso
    Salah • Son • Foden • Jota
    Antonio • King
    (Foster / White / Brownhill / Davis) 1FT 1.4ITB

    Son and Jota -> Mane and Bowen(-4)? Or do I just do Son to Bowen for free and risk Jota. I’m just worried about his mins with Firmino back