Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

  1. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Did Thor's Ragnarok mention anything about Luke Shaw injury status?

    1. ChampChomp
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Did he come off injured midweek?

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Not sure - just checking if rag said anything?

        1. ChampChomp
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Didn't hear anything. He seemed fine on Wednesday. I'm considering getting him in for Reguillon, but the fact he's on 4 yellows and may not yet be fully nailed is making me doubt whether it's the right move.

  2. Nightf0x
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Rashford as a cover of no ronaldo ?

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thinking about it

    2. cravencottage
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      The notion of cover makes no sense. Get Rashford for his performance, not because he "covers" someone else

    3. Pep bites Kun
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Rash is a wait & see in my book

    4. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Oh dear... cover...

  3. Strchld
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Which two to pick?

    A) Mount
    B) Bilva
    C) Bowen

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A & B but i do like C

    2. F4L
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B and C

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        How come not Mount?

        1. F4L
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          game time issues, although there's a chance Tuchel puts him the midfield 2

    3. Pep bites Kun
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      BC

  4. Colonel Shoe 肝池
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    -8 is the new save a free

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Haven't seen -16 mentioned often yet.

      1. g40steve
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Seen a couple

      2. Shineonme
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Me

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      People will be crying after their -8s

      1. Old Bull
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Some will some won’t. It’s a gamble

    3. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Love it

    4. Philosopher's Stones
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      What's a -4 then?

      1. Pep bites Kun
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Conservative/Dullard 😉

    5. BENOIT
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      In a lot of cases, it is to avoid not fielding 11, so worth it

    6. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      -4 this week and then another 4 next is the plan for me at this stage

    7. Conners
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'm on -8, about to become -12 thanks to the Jota news. Oh well.

      1. Shineonme
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I'm on -16

  5. Miguel Sanchez
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Risk Jota with Sissoko (bre) first sub or sell Sissoko for Bowen for a hit?

    A) Sissoko (bre)
    B) Bowen (bur) -4

    Ta

    1. HammersXI
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      In the long term the hit makes more sense

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B worth it going forward

  6. HammersXI
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Already wasted 2 FT with gray and jota in this week before the spurs news.

    With a big doubt on whether Vardy starts and Son being out does a -8 move to Ronaldo and Bernardo sounds sensible? Was planning to make those 2 moves next week but I’ve Lowton and Brownhill on my bench currently.

    1. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Vardy should start don't you think

  7. Pukki Party
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    So Jota had a knock from a previous game and he has played after that, the manager decides to rest him in a useless CL game, hasn't trained because well rest of the squad is travelling to that cl game and everyone is panicking?

    1. HammersXI
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I do think there was at least 1/2 training sessions they had this week prior to the game and he hasn’t featured at all. That’s the worrying thing.

  8. gomez123
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ive already made 3 transfers for -8....can I activate my free hit if i want to make any more transfers??

    1. Pukki Party
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes activate it when you want and will wipe out the -8

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes but you will end up with your previous squad next GW

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        this

    3. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You must do that -8 sgain next week...

  9. Gazza2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Would you do ESR to Silva or save the FT?

  10. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A. Mbeumo to Bowen for a hit
    B. Start Mbeumo

    1. HammersXI
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

  11. Tinfoil Deathstar
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Bottomed. Is Raphinha to Bowen worth a -4 this week? Raphinha will likely come in for Jota otherwise.

    Rest of team is fine bar Sanchez as GK but I'm not taking a hit to fix that.

    1. HammersXI
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Would keep raphinha. If Leeds somehow score it will come from him. West Ham goals are quite evenly spread amongst the midfielders

    2. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No, not for a hit

    3. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'd do that move, think Raph hasn't done enough to warrant his spot

    4. Old Bull
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      How confident are you that Bowen is going to score above 6pts?Because that’s what you’re going to need to better Raphina just being on the pitch for 60mins. Depends whether you like that gamble

      1. Tinfoil Deathstar
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Not especially. Think I’ll just leave the move for next week

    5. Pep bites Kun
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      What's your planned move next week? If nothing urgent, then don't take the hit.

      1. Tinfoil Deathstar
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        It’s the same move (Raph to Bowen) so would just be brought forward a week that’s all. I think I can wait.

  12. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Would you do Lamptey > Rudiger for -4

    Already had to take a -4 to field 11 but now Jota injured would only have 10 players unless I do the above..

  13. The Alli Way
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Son > Sterling or Bernardo?

    1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Sterling back in Pep's good book.

    2. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Sterling a fun punt but history says that chances are it won't end well

  14. 420king
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Jota to Silva for -4 or start Livramento?

  15. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Don't go bonkers Lukaku, can't get you 'till next week, cheers!

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You going Lukaku over CR7?

      Good luck. Has not looked his best yet this season

      1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thing is you could argue Ron is not the player of old. 🙂

  16. Bavarian
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Who to (C)?
    Salah or CR7?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Salah

    2. Philosopher's Stones
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Don't do this to yourself

  17. Thomas Magnum
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Better punt, Sancho or Rashford?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Rashford

    2. Lieutenant Frank Columbo
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Rashford

    3. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Sancho.

      Cavani is back soon.

      1. BENOIT
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Reckon he plays the old boys up front together?

        1. Piggs Boson
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Against certain teams, yeah.

      2. Thomas Magnum
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Great point, didn't consider this actually. Little cheaper as well

    4. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Let's say Sancho.

  18. Philosopher's Stones
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Start one:

    A: ESR
    B: Mbeumo

    1. SKENG
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

  19. Jacktastic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Any update on Jesus? Can’t find one

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
        4 years, 1 month ago

        No mention at all annoyingly

        1. Jacktastic
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Ffs

    2. Manani
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      which 2 to start?
      A. ESR
      B. Jota
      C. Raphinna
      D. Gallagher

      1. Pukki Party
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        A B

      2. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        B and D

      3. Lieutenant Frank Columbo
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        AB

      4. SKENG
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        BADC

    3. Jimmers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Bring in a keeper for -4 (have both Sanchez/Foster) or go withour a keeper and do Rapha to Bilva instead for -4?

      1. SKENG
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Think of them separately. I'd take the hit for the keeper, not for Bernardo.

    4. AnfieldLad
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A) Jota -> Bilva
      B) Save

      1. Railwayman
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I would save since they play Wolves. If it was some poor team, then maybe. You will need Jota this month.

    5. Railwayman
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Is it worth bringing in Ramsdale for a hit? I have no GK for this week? Brighton has 2 blanks in the next 9 weeks and Che and United to play.

      A) Yes

      B) No

      1. SKENG
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        A

      2. F4L
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah, Arsenal's fixtures are good

    6. SKENG
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Can I please get your thoughts on this?

      If Jota does not play, I'm fielding this 11:

      Ramsdale
      TAA Cancelo Alonso
      Salah Bowen Mbeumo Brownhill
      Ronaldo Antonio King

      Foster JOTA Livramento Williams, 0 FT, 2.7M ITB

      A) Williams > James -4 pts (keep Jota, play James instead of Brownhill)
      B) Don't take any hits (keep Jota, play Brownhill)
      C) smth else (maybe get rid of Jota for a -10.5M mid -4 pts)?

      1. Railwayman
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        B

      2. Peter O'Hanraha-hanrah…
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        B for me

      3. SKENG
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks all!

    7. Royal5
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Raph/Jota > Bowen/Bernardo 2FT's seems too obvious.

      People selling Jota?

      1. MikeS
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Is Jota confirm our now?

        1. Royal5
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Don't think so.

      2. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Not me

    8. lewis274
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      worth doing raphinha -> jota for a -4?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Jota may not even play this Gw

      2. Holmes
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        No, delay the move. He is doubtful.

      3. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Jota might not play.

    9. F4L
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If you have a decent first sub, best to bench Jota instead right? Rather than be punished with a cameo

      1. Do I Not Like Orange
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        What are these 'decent first subs' that you speak of?

        1. F4L
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Mbeumo, maybe he can finally repay the faith after all this time 🙂

      2. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Supersub.

      3. Peter O'Hanraha-hanrah…
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I have Gallagher first sub and am still starting Jota, feel like he'll start or not play at all

      4. F4L
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        cheers all

      5. themaindanger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I am so jealous of people who have a bench this week. I have 5 players out due to Covid and 2 flagged (Foden & Jota). Even if I take a -8 I can't get 11 players for sure.

    10. chrislt4
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Pick one…

      A) Mount & Ramsdale

      B) Gundo & De Gea

      1. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        B

    11. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Worth downgrading Mbeumo to fodder to upgrade Sanchez to DDG? -4

      Sanchez
      TAA James Cancelo Alonso
      Salah Jota ESR
      Ronaldo Antonio Dennis

      Steele Mbeumo Gallagher Livra

      1. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        No don’t think so

    12. Oggle22
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      G2G? Who to captain?
      Ramsdale
      James Trent Livra
      Salah Bowen Mount Bilva
      CR7 Dennis Antonio

      Foster Luiz Johnson Reg