Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

  1. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramsdale
    TAA, Cancelo, James
    Salah (c), Foden, Raphinha, Son
    Wilson, King, Antonio

    Foster, Livramento, Duffy, Brownhill

    1.2 itb 1ft

    With my second ft it was going to be a simple son to Jota. With the news that jota is a doubt that is now out if the question.

    So son to

    A Bowen
    B Bernardo
    C Rashford/Sancho
    D Smith-Rowe

    1. 420king
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      It's a punt, but I'd try with C since you already have City and Whu cover but no United.

  2. BENOIT
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on this for -8?

    Sanchez, Son, Raphinha, Toney ----> DeGea, Rashford, Bowen, King

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Would save 4 points and keep Raphinha over Rashford

      1. Tanaka'd
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Agree with this

        1. BENOIT
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Thanks All. Just gor a hunch about Rashford versus a depleted Norwich side...

    2. I Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'm looking at selling those exact players for a -8 but getting Ronaldo and Saka instead of Rashford and King.

    3. 420king
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Think -4 is enough. Keep Sanchez or Raphinha for one more round.

      1. I Member
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        You need to look at the moves in isolation though. If Sanchez to de Gea is a good hit and Raphinha to Bowen is a good hit then he should do both, shouldn't matter that it's -8 total. They are two separate -4s.

        1. 420king
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I always am and in this case you are right, specially if it saves you from taking a hit in the future.

  3. 420king
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Would you do Jota to Bernardo for -4 with this team?

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo James
    Salah Bowen Raphinha Jota*
    Ronaldo Antonio King
    (Johnson* Livramento Brownhill)

  4. Better Call Raul
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A) Son -> City MID (-4)

    B) Start White(SOU) and transfer Son out next week

    1. Bonus magnet
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

    3. JPSpurs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B if your bench is strong enough

    4. 420king
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Depends on the other issues in your team. I'd do a -4 now if it saves you one later.

  5. richarlison2348
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    On WC, keep Jota or swap with Antonio?

    1. JPSpurs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Different positions?

      1. richarlison2348
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Dead players in other spot

  6. Wolfman180
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Even more confused after team news now.

    A) Jesus to Ronaldo
    B) Normann to Gray
    C) Neither

    1. Wolfman180
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      D) Jota to Mount

    2. FPLrookie2009
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

  7. Party mode
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Guaita
    James TAA Cancelo
    Salah Jota Bowen Mbeumo
    Antonio King Benteke

    Foster Livra Brownhill Duffy
    7.5 itb

    Swapped Son for Bowen. Keep Benteke or get Ronaldo for the other FT?

    Getting Ronaldo limits replacements for Mbeumo.

    Thoughts anyone?
    Cheers

  8. Old Wulfrunian
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Wc time or take some hits?

    Sanchez*
    Taa/Cancelo/James/Rudiger
    Salah/Raphinha/Jota*/Gundogan
    Ronaldo/Toney*

    Steele/Brownhill/Johnson*/Davis
    1ft 0.6itm

  9. Peter Ouch
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Who do I play
    A Bernardo
    B King

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Both

    2. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Both ideally.

  10. JPSpurs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    What’s the score with Jota all of a sudden? Haven’t taken a single hit all season but is -4 Jota to BSilva required?

    Guita
    TAA, Cancelo, Rudi, James
    Salah, Jota*, ESR*, Bowen
    Antonio, Dennis

    Sanchez*, Hwang, Livra, Son*

    1. xvavl
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I was considering taking Jota out for (-4), but have + 0.2 on him, so if I wanted him back would need to get him for 8 and I do think he’s definitely a long term asset especially with Mane & Salah in afcon soon. So opted against it

  11. xvavl
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Hi all,

    Little help pls:
    Martinez
    TAA James Cancelo Livra
    Salah Bilva Gallagher ESR*
    Vardy Dennis

    Bench: Sanchez* Jota* Toney * Omoba

    0 FT, 0.7 itb

    A) no hit and pray ESR plays and so does everybody else
    B) Toney -> King(-4)
    C) Omoba -> Dalot (-4) this would give me also a 5th def for the future

    Thanks

    1. JPSpurs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Both B & C seem sensible longer term strategies but B for me, Dalot still feels to much of a punt.

      1. xvavl
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks, yes Dalot is def nailed for this week, but might be rotation risk when AWB fit….just like the way he played last game . Still few hours to make a decision

  12. seewhyaxe
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Guys, Foden & Vardy to Bowen and Ronaldo for -4?

    I also have Jota.

    Rams
    TAA, Alonso, Cancelo, James
    Salah, Foden, Jota, Bilva
    Vardy, Dennis

    Foster, Livra, Armstrong, Brownhill

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Not for me

      1. seewhyaxe
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks! I might just do Foden to Bowen for free then

  13. smix
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A. Gallagher to Mount (-4)
    B. Raphina to Mount (-4)
    C. Hold

    The best move ?

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      C

  14. TheYogaDaddy
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ramsdale (Foster)
    Cancelo TAA James (Duffy) (Livramento)
    Salah (C) Jota* Raphinha Mbuemo (Brownhill)
    CR7 King Antonio

    0 ft, 0.3 itb

    Worth making any other moves?
    And captain Ronaldo or Salah?

  15. Millie7
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Can only afford Bilva if i use my 2 free transfers.

    A) Raphinha > Bilva + Mbuemo > 5.4
    B) Raphinha > Mount

  16. Kobrakai
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Hmm, I was locked but this Jota news somehow upsets me.
    Already used 2FT's

    Current team:
    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo James (Reguilon, Livramento)
    Salah Bilva ESR Jota Mbuemo
    CR7 Dennis (4.4)
    3.3M ITB

    ESR & Jota doubtfull, Reguilon not playing.

    I had my eye on both Mount & Bowen, I might consider ESR -> Bowen?
    I also want to get rid of a non playing bench fodder for the Christmass period, my actual plan was to get the 4.4 to Antonio and then I need to downgrade somewhere 0.2M. That will be off the table (for now) if I upgrade ESR to Bowen/Mount.

    I am a bit worried with Mount getting full 90 CL minutes, his minutes might be managed this weekend?

    Advice?
    Thanks!

  17. TheBiffas
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Got Cornet and Jota and no bench, prepared for another poor gameweek

  18. Sakib.jafar
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I have ASM as first sub.

    Do I start ASM or start Jota?

    1. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I think ASM has more chance of starting to be honest. But I also think both start on the bench this week.

  19. Jebiga
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    1. DDG, Grey and Dennis

    or

    2. Guaita, ESR and King

    ?

  20. Manani
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    thoughts on Watkins?

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Like him but not this week

    2. Jebiga
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Its not the same Villa like last year...

    3. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Great player, only needs a sniff, pure striker.

  21. Flynny
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Who to start please?

    A....jota

    B....mbeumo

    Thanks

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I’m starting Jota

  22. phuang
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Hi guys, I brought in CR7 and Josh King for a -4 as earlier transfer. With news that Jota is 50/50 and Brighton fixture’s is postponed, I literally have no playing GK for this GW (backup GK is Steele)

    What choices do you reckon?

    A: Jota out Bernardo in for a -8
    B: Jota out Bowen in for a -8
    C: Jota and Steele out Bernardo and Bachmann in for a -12
    D: Jota and Steele out Bowen and Bachmann in for a -12

  23. Grounderz
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    With the news on Jota, seems I'ma start Broja ahead of Jota then.

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Think there’s A chance of A cameo?

      1. Shineonme
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah maybe but only 15 min at most.

  24. RobMcM1991
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Trying again, would love some advice: What do I do???

    Ramsdale
    Trent • Cancelo • Reguilon* • Livramento
    Salah • Raphina • Foden • Jota • Gallagher
    Kane*
    (Foster / Hwang / Amartey / Davis) 1FT 0.4ITB

    1. storr84
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Kane to Ronaldo?

  25. Sakib.jafar
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Do I start ASM instead of Jota?

  26. Ohh1454
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Raph or Jota to Bilva ? If Jota doesn’t play I’ve sissoko coming in

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Raph.

  27. CLOD
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ho folks, would you start jota over watkins this week? Thanks in advance!

    1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes, the grapevine suggests Watkins will come in for you anyways.
      Can't see a cameo for sure.

  28. Dannyb
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Jota to Mount - 4 or risk ESR playing?

    1. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I think both won't start

  29. Corona is not good 4 U
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    What to do?

    Sánchez, Foster
    Alexander-Arnold, Cancelo, Rüdiger, James, White
    Salah, Jota, Bernado, Smith Rowe, Gilmour
    Antonio, Vardy, Dennis

    1 free transfers and 0.6 in the bank.

    Thanks!

    1. Baron Penguin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Looks OK, maybe it's the time to get Ramsdale?

  30. MikeS
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Any of these worth a -4?

    A. Jota to Bowen or mount
    B. ESR to Bowen or mount
    C. Scarlett to king