Spot the Differential
11 March 2022 760 comments
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Gameweek 29 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Everton and Liverpool, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

GABRIEL MARTINELLI

FPL Gameweek 17 review: Martinelli update, bargain Broja and Antonio's blank
  • FPL ownership: 2.8%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEI + LIV | avl | cry | BHA | sou

Gabriel Martinelli (£5.3m) is back on the Fantasy radar after netting at Watford on Sunday.

Now, the cut-price midfielder presents an intriguing differential to Bukayo Saka (£6.6m), not least because his minutes-per-expected goal involvement (xGI) figure is better than all of the other Arsenal midfield regulars in 2021/22.

It’s also worth noting that Martinelli has an identical minutes-per-points average as Saka (15.7), which isn’t bad considering he costs £1.3m less, while his seven big chances from Gameweek 13 onwards is only bettered by Alexandre Lacazette (£8.3m) amongst team-mates.

Positional rival Emile Smith Rowe (£5.8m) will presumably be free from Covid-19 in time for the weekend, but Martinelli has started each of the last 11 Premier League matches he has been available for, producing four goals and two assists, which is encouraging for those backing the Brazilian winger to shine.

As for Arsenal, they have won their last four Premier League matches in a row, and now take on Leicester City (h) and Liverpool (h) in Gameweek 29, before facing Aston Villa (a), Crystal Palace (a) and Brighton and Hove Albion (h). In fact, their schedule right through until the end of the season is favourable, with two more as-yet-unannounced Double Gameweeks to fit in somewhere.

Martinelli offers a budget route into Arsenal’s attack for this double-header, and could be a useful differential in the coming weeks too.

DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN

Five-time top 1k FPL finisher Tom Freeman on Calvert-Lewin, Wolves and his Gameweek 2 plans 6
  • FPL ownership: 3.1%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: WOL + NEW | – | whu | MUN | –

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m) has struggled for form since returning from injury, but now faces back-to-back home matches against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Newcastle United in Double Gameweek 29.

Everton’s problematic away form continued at Tottenham Hotspur on Monday, but it is worth noting that their Goodison Park performances under Frank Lampard have generally been good.

The former Chelsea man oversaw a convincing 3-0 victory over Leeds United in his first Premier League home fixture last month, seven days after beginning his reign with a comprehensive Goodison FA Cup success (4-1) against Brentford. Events conspired against them versus Manchester City in Gameweek 27, but there were many positives to take from their display.

As for Calvert-Lewin, he started the 2021/22 campaign in good form, scoring in each of the opening three Gameweeks, but then early momentum was halted after an injury that saw him sidelined up until January. Since his return, the England international has failed to find the back of the net in his six appearances, but has racked up 12 shots in the box, two big chances and 1.99 expected goals (xG), all team-leading totals.

Given their position – they are currently one place and one point above the relegation zone – these two home matches are crucial for Everton, and if they are to get back on track, there is a decent chance Calvert-Lewin will be central to it.

LUIS DIAZ

Returning Sarr among the FPL differentials for Double Gameweek 26
  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £8.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: bha + ars | – | WAT | mci | avl

Luis Diaz (£8.0m) has hit the ground running at Liverpool following his January move from Porto.

Since making his first Premier League start in Gameweek 24, the Colombian winger has racked up 17 goal attempts, 11 shots in the box, five efforts on target, two big chances and 37 penalty area touches. He has also created nine chances, whilst amongst all team-mates, only Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) has received more passes in the final third.

At this stage, we should emphasise the rotation risk associated with the player. With Roberto Firmino (£8.7m) nearing a return to action, it’s at least five players competing for three spots in attack, perhaps leaving the likes of Diaz and Diogo Jota (£8.3m), maybe even premium option Sadio Mane (£11.7m), open to a spot of rotation. However, Diaz’s ability on the pitch has been clear for all to see, and if he were to get 120-ish minutes across the two matches, that could be enough for him to haul.

Liverpool return to Premier League action in Double Gameweek 29 when they visit Brighton and Hove Albion and Arsenal, as they aim to keep the pressure on table-toppers Manchester City. That’s followed by a Gameweek 30 blank, although they do have an appealing Anfield encounter against Watford to follow. For those looking further ahead, the Reds will also have another Double Gameweek to come between now and the end of the season.

Adding Diaz to Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m) and Salah – both of whom are locked into most Fantasy sides – is an appealing move this week, and could pay off given Liverpool’s attacking firepower.

760 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. RedJive79
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    James, Jimi, Dennis to Doherty, Kane, Broja for -8?

    1. FPL Emu
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'd keep Jimi and downgrade somewhere else

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      If no other way to afford Kane and no other spurs id do it

  2. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Do you think mount gonna start gw29?
    And if using TC, put it on kane or salah

    1. Neevesy
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'm 50/50 on Salah and Kane for my TC. Probably go Salah, just.

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      50/50 on mount he has played a lot of mins off late
      TC SALAH

  3. FPL Emu
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A) Get Mahrez on wildcard and hope for a mega haul, transfer to a Leicester mid in GW30

    B) Get Barnes (ars) right away

    1. TopBinFC
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B, Mahrez might not even play

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

    3. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I dont have the best track record with Mahrez & not sure Palace (A) screams mega haul so prob B

  4. Stranger Mings
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Hi which option please a) Broja to lacca or b) James to TAA? Thanks

    1. Neevesy
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

  5. CABAYE4
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Is Bowen out?

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      wait for moyes presser

  6. Saintjack01
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Play 2 of 3
    Fraser
    Che Adams
    Raphinia

    1. TopBinFC
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Very tough, anyone else to bench?

      1. Saintjack01
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        No not really

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Fraser for sure and toss a coin for the other one

  7. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Bench boost Sa, Livra, Broja and Jimenez?

    1. The Mighty Whites
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Nah

    2. TopBinFC
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Nah

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I think if u want to get rid of the chip then sure its fine but there will be better weeks ahead imo

  8. The Mighty Whites
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A - Play Antonio, Livramento or Coady?

    B - Captain Salah or Kane?

    1. TopBinFC
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Play Antonio
      Captain Salah

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Livra
      Salah

  9. Prinzhorn
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Ramdale

    TAA - Tierney - Doherty - Rudiger

    Salah - Saka - Raphinha - Coutinho

    Kane - Pukki

    (Sanchez - Ramsey - King - Semedo)

    GTG?
    TC on Salah/Saka/Kane

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      GTG

      TC SALAH

  10. ZimZalabim
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Sell Watkins or Jimi for Kane ?

    and Which move to fund it ?

    A. Coutinho to Kulu/Martinelli
    B. Raph to Kulu/Martinelli
    C. Dennis to Broja or any other 5.5 striker

    Total move will be for a -8

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Watkins, B with Martinelli

      1. ZimZalabim
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        cheers

  11. MIGHTY JOE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Cancelo -> Doherty

    or

    JWP -> Kulu

    1. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      JWP to Kulu

      1. ZimZalabim
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        agreed

    2. demob
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      both. otherwise JWP to kulu. cancelo might play

    3. The Mighty Whites
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

  12. donkey73
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Stuck with St.Maximin who seems out of favour.
    Stick or ditch for a hit -4? (example DCL or Richarlison)

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      wait for news first
      if hes a doubt then sell for sure but I wouldnt go for everton players tbh must be other options u can find

  13. simong1
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Planning to BB this week. Current bench:

    Dubravka - Adams - Broja - Kilman

    Best move from the below to make the BB stronger?

    A) Keep as is
    B) Kilman > Doherty (-4)
    C) Kilman & Fraser > Doherty & Saka (-8)
    D) Kilman & Raphinha > Doherty & Saka (-8)
    E) Kilman & Adams > Doherty & Laca (-8)

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      all moves are massive upgrades and I would make most of those moves for the first 11

      Whats ur full team look like ?

      1. grennans2
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks, any preferences? Current plan is to go James > Robbo with the FT but unsure of how many/if any hits after that.

        Dubravka - Ramsdale
        TAA - James - Rudi - T. Silva - Kilman
        Salah - Fraser - Kulu - Gordon - Raph
        Kane - Adams - Broja

        1. ZimZalabim
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Dont think you shd BB tbh

          James to robbo plus Kilman to Doherty are good moves as is getting saka probably worth a -8 with the first two not expected to play.
          Silva is likely to be rested so that means you wont have a full bench broja also is a slight doubt will have to wait for news on that.
          you can move james to robbo, kilman to doherty and raph to saka or even fraser out over Raph if you need players for 30. Depends on ur plan for 30.

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Fraser/Raph to Saka if you can do that by itself

  14. footballcandy
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    I'm going to BB regardless.

    DUBRAWKA, Jimi, Broja, Kilman

    a) Kilman to Coleman
    b) Jimi to Richarlison
    c) Both for a hit?
    d) Save (feel like Kilman is not nailed anymore, and Jimi minutes worries me)

    Will mess up everything for GW30, but f.. it

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      D

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      look for better players to buy

  15. Klip Klopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Cancelo to Robertson for a -4? Already have TAA

    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'd try to get Robbo alongside Cancelo if you can. He might even be back for Monday.

    2. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah. Look at getting Cancelo back in 30 something.

  16. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Woud you do these moves?

    Cancelo, Bowen > Amartey, Salah(C)-4

    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'd want Cancelo and Bowen in GW31. Are you FHing in 30? Might be another way.

      You need Salah though. So get him the best way you can.

      1. Maddamotha
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Still have WC left, so plan to use that after gw30. Might FH in 30.

  17. thepancakeman123
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    I'm really torn on which midfielder to take out for Son. Salah, Saka and Mount are locked for me so it's between Coutinho and Raphinha. Coutinho's been in great form but has rubbish games coming up, Raphinha's been in rubbish form but has great games coming up. Who do I take out?

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Mount could easily be benched this week.

      I'd go Coutinho over Raphinha for sure.

      1. thepancakeman123
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        He could tbf, Chelsea's games are just so good that I don't want to sell their top scorer and assister you know? I'm moving towards Coutinho too but it's a bit scary given his form lol

  18. Piggs Boson
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Coady (eve) âž¡ Doherty (mun, bha) worth a hit?

    1. thepancakeman123
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I've been contemplating this move. I think I'll do it because I fancy Everton to score

    2. Gizzachance
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      yeah, hopefully doherty ex game will repay you

    3. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Dont think so.
      Nice arrow! How'd you do that?

      1. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        : arrow :

        âž¡

  19. Gizzachance
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    thoughts guys, would you b boost these
    forster WAT H) rudiger (new H) coady jimi ( eve A}
    thanks

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No. I Just don’t trust Wolves.

      1. Gizzachance
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        yeah true, could go either way with them, cs, goals, or nothing
        cheers

    2. footballcandy
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'm either BB this:

      DUBRAWKA, Jiminez, Broja, Kilman

      or

      DUBRAWKA, RICHARLISON, Broja, Kilman

      You are somewhat in a similar boat, and I would BB since I hate the chip (and no WC left).

      1. Gizzachance
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        never a fan of b boost really, bench has couple decent fixtures, may just get it out of the way
        cheers

      2. ILOVEBAPS
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Yep I am but I think I’ll get a better BB down the line.

    3. thepancakeman123
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      As far as single week bench boosts go that's a pretty decent one. If you don't see yourself bench boosting in GW36 then go for it

      1. Gizzachance
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        my thinking to, have 9 dgw players....in gw 36 dunno what my team will be like, or dgw players etc, im not gonna have 4 dgw on bench, no w/c left, will look to f/h in 36
        cheers

  20. internal error
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Selling Digne, benching Kilman

  21. The-Red-1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Play Coutinho or Cancelo?

    1. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Cancelo although I suspect he might miss the game

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Try Cancelo. Prob out but I feel like a cameo is unlikely so I'm starting him

    3. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Coutinho.

  22. Eightball
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Willock to Kulu for a -4?

    or do I just stick with him for the next two and then do the move for the blank gameweek (for free)

  23. Malinwa
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Free hit this team in GW30 or not?

    Lloris
    White - Doherty - Ait N
    Saka - Bowen - Raph - Son
    Laca

    1. JPSpurs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I wouldn’t.

      Using mine as I only have 5 players but would prefer to keep

      1. Malinwa
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        cheers

  24. JPSpurs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    People have way too many chips left - just as I was starting to rise up the ranking.

    Do we know how long James is out for?

    Will do either him or Digne to Doherty, the other will be on the bench this week. Would rather keep James if he’ll be back for the next CHE fixture…

    1. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      James apparently out between 5-14 days. Seems the issue isnt as bad as first thought

      1. JPSpurs
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks, will keep him then

      2. The Mentaculus
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Oh thats great news. Where did you see that?

  25. FCSB
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Start one:

    1. Broja (WAT)
    2. Jimenez (eve)
    3. Saiss (eve)

    Thanks

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      easy question please

      1. FCSB
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Too hard to call?

    2. JPSpurs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      2

    3. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      1

    4. El Presidente
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      1

    5. Bavarian
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      2

  26. DavvaMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Still not sure if a -8 is too much. I want Robbo after GW30 and no plans to FH until GW36.

    A. James > Robbo
    B. Digne > Doherty
    C. Havertz > Kulu

    What do you think?

    Thanks

  27. grennans2
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A or B for this week if you had to choose?

    A) Kilman & Lacazette
    B) Doherty & Adams (have Broja also)

  28. Tonyawesome69
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    VVD missed training

    "We had a few little things, but no-one is out of training. COVID is not over. We try everything to avoid but it's not always possible. Players/Staff have no symptoms but cannot be involved."

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Could covid be the reason VVD wasn't seen in training yesterday

    2. Buck The Trent
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Bugger, hopefully VVD plays

  29. The Mighty Whites
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Play Livramento or Antonio?

    Odds:
    Livramento CS = 11/8
    Antonio anytime goalscorer = 23/10

  30. FootballDog
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    James to Robertson, for -4

    ya or nah

    1. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Uncertainty never pays. Get Robbo.

      1. FootballDog
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Fair enough