Most of us buy a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) player with more than just one Gameweek in mind – and that’s where our Watchlist comes into play.
Unlike the Scout Picks, which focuses exclusively on the very next Gameweek alone, here we pick out the players who are the best medium-term targets in each position based on fixtures, form and value.
After the carnage of recent postponements and blanks, we’re back to more minimal tinkering in this latest weekly update.
ABOUT THE WATCHLIST
In our Watchlist, which is visible on the sidebar, the initial focus is on the next four Gameweeks but anything up to six weeks is factored in.
Players are selected and ranked according to factors such as form, club injuries, forthcoming fixtures and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.
We usually draw on FPL’s ‘form’ ratings for this (points accrued in matches played over the last 30 days) but with some players not involved at all in Gameweeks 7 and 8, we’ve taken the liberty to extend the form period back to Gameweek 6 – which is only just outside the usual 30-day window.
The tables in the article below display the player name and club, along with the abbreviation for the factors that played a part in their ranking.
A key for these factors is as follows:
Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has climbed or fallen in our reckoning since the previous update or if they are a new entry into the tables.
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL GOALKEEPERS
There’s little change in our goalkeeping pecking order. It’s not exactly a vintage year for shot-stoppers in FPL so far: despite failing to keep a clean sheet in five of his last six matches, Nick Pope (£5.3m) still sits top of the points table among goalkeepers.
Pope’s ability to throw in saves and bonus points, something we highlighted recently in a Members article, gives him the edge in our eyes, while three teams who are scoring at just 1.0 goals a game or worse (Everton, Aston Villa and Southampton) are to come between now and Gameweek 15.
The favourable fixture run starts now for Crystal Palace, which should hopefully help the Eagles and Vicente Guaita (£4.5m) get back towards the promising underlying stats we saw in 2021/22. Speaking of which, West Ham have the fourth-best minutes per expected goals conceded (xGC) average in the division this season and some appealing matches to come, even more so if Gameweek 10 opponents Fulham are without their star striker this weekend. Lukasz Fabianski (£5.0m) consquently sit just behind a rotation-proof route into a Tottenham Hotspur defence that can’t be beaten for big chances conceded, Hugo Lloris (£5.5m).
After having staved off – for now – whatever threat was posed to him by Daniel Iversen (£3.9m) and keeping his first clean sheet of the season in Gameweek 9, Danny Ward (£4.1m) climbs slightly. There’s still a healthy scepticism about Leicester’s backline but there’s no denying that he’s the only option for FPL managers wanting a playing sub-£4.5m goalkeeper, and up next is a Bournemouth side with the worst expected goals (xG) tally in 2022/23 so far.
Dropping out altogether is Jose Sa (£5.0m), despite sitting second in the goalkeepers’ points table. The uncertainty over exactly who managerless Wolverhampton Wanderers will bring in (favourite Julen Lopetegui does come with a conservative reputation, at least) is partly the reason for this, although also factored in is the current shortage of numbers at centre-half due to suspension and the fact that Wolves face Chelsea next and then four of the division’s seven highest scorers in Gameweeks 13-16.
Replacing Sa is Jordan Pickford (£4.5m), who is in something approaching the form of his life. Everton, remarkably, have conceded fewer goals than any other Premier League side this season. Pickford has had much to do with that, boasting the best expected goals prevented (xGP) tally in the division. A ‘big six’ double-header up next keeps him relatively low down the Watchlist for now but more favourable fixtures await right the way through to the World Cup.
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL DEFENDERS
There’s also not much activity in a fairly static defender market.
Kieran Trippier (£5.5m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m), Reece James (£6.0m) and Ivan Perisic (£5.6m) are the top four defenders for expected goal involvement (xGI) in 2022/23 so far, with James retaining the number one spot in our Watchlist thanks to some juicy fixtures ahead – starting with the division’s lowest scorers, Wolves.
For Alexander-Arnold to be fourth is a humbling demotion by his lofty historical standards but confidence is still low in the Liverpool backline after Saturday’s six-goal thriller against Brighton; only five teams have allowed more ‘big chances’ than the Reds this season. The right-back at least looked a little more like his old self when scoring in Tuesday’s comfortable win over Rangers, although didn’t exactly have his much-scrutinised defensive attributes tested.
Joao Cancelo (£7.2m) is the odd man out when it comes to the xGI front-runners; in fact, he sits down in 26th place among defenders. With his attacking numbers down on last season and two free-scoring sides to come either side of a Gameweek 12 blank, the full-back takes a small tumble in our pecking order. He’s never going to be too far from the summit, however, given that he’s traditionally been the most secure, most attack-minded route into the division’s best defence (for clean sheets) in the last three years.
Elsewhere, Vladimir Coufal (£4.4m) has lost his grip on the right-back slot at West Ham and is replaced in our Watchlist by team-mate Kurt Zouma (£4.5m), who is joint-second among FPL defenders for headed attempts this season.
Ben Mee (£4.5m) and Tyrone Mings (£4.3m) both banked clean sheets in Gameweek 8 to justify their ongoing inclusion with some decent fixtures ahead; Brentford and Aston Villa sit fourth and third in our Season Ticker over the next six Gameweeks.
The favourable matches are getting fewer and fewer for a beleagured and porous Nottingham Forest, however, and Neco Williams (£4.1m) is pretty much still in the above table only based on his bargain price, starting status, Nathan Patterson‘s (£4.1m) injury and good attacking numbers.
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL MIDFIELDERS
With Luis Sinisterra (£6.5m) suspended and the set-piece-taking Morgan Gibbs-White (£5.5m) bowing out due to Forest’s state of disarray and shortening number of favourable matches, we’ve got two new entries in the midfielders’ Watchlist.
Accusations of shameless knee-jerkery will fly our way given that we’ve elevated two Gameweek 9 hat-trick heroes to the list but with Phil Foden (£8.1m) a current ever-present starter in the division’s best attack and with Leandro Trossard‘s (£6.7m) new coach Roberto De Zerbi pledging to be even more attacking than his predecessor, it’d be perverse to ignore their credentials when they sit among the top three midfielders for FPL points in 2022/23. There are underlying numbers to back up these selections, too: Foden is actually now third among players his position for xGI, while Trossard is joint-top for big chances. What keeps those two players, along with Kevin De Bruyne (£12.4m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.6m), low down the list above is that they aren’t obvious pressing ‘transfers in’ just now, with unfavourable fixtures and/or a Blank Gameweek 12 in the short-term.
Jarrod Bowen (£8.1m) is a miserable joint-28th for xGI among midfielders but just to underscore how favourable fixtures can induce FPL points, Bowen’s two best Gameweeks for shots in the box, chances created and xGI this season have been in Gameweeks 8 and 9. Up next for the Hammers in Gameweeks 10-13 are four teams who are all in the bottom half for big chances conceded, including Liverpool. Bowen rises to fifth in our midfielders’ Watchlist as a result.
Despite pressure from the likes of Miguel Almiron (£5.1m) and Joe Willock (£4.9m), both of whom are in the top 10 for xGI among midfielders this season, Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) remains our go-to budget midfield asset. Willian’s (£5.5m) calf injury should help Andreas retain set-piece duties, while Fulham are top of our Season Ticker over the next five Gameweeks.
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL FORWARDS
The top five forwards above are the leading strikers for goal attempts, shots in the box, big chances and xGI this season and remain unmoved, although we will obviously revisit this list later in the week should the injury sustained by Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m) in Gameweek 9 prove to be anything other than minor.
For what it’s worth, our Rate My Team points projections also have them as the highest five points scorers among forwards from now until the World Cup.
Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m), remember, is a single yellow card away from a one-match suspension.
Dominic Solanke (£5.7m) is a nailed starter, on penalties and about to face four teams who have got just four clean sheets between them in the whole of 2022/23 but it’s fair to say that the xG-dodger’s inclusion is more about him being the go-to sub-£6.0m forward for anyone playing 3-5-2 and wanting a playable emergency bench option, particularly in Gameweek 12 when Arsenal and City assets blank.
Ollie Watkins (£7.2m) clings onto a place given that Aston Villa now play teams who all sit in the bottom half for big chances conceded this season, including Chelsea, while Watkins himself is seventh among FPL forwards for xGI. But Brennan Johnson (£5.9m), who has the second-worst minutes-per-shot average of any forward this season despite having just enjoyed a run of favourable games, drops out.
In come Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£9.0m) and Odsonne Edouard (£5.3m), both of whom are about to enjoy favourable fixture runs starting in Gameweek 10. It’s still early days when it comes to assessing Chelsea assets under Graham Potter, hence Aubameyang’s relatively low placing, while most of us are all too aware of the rotation risk that comes with being a Crystal Palace striker. There isn’t a single starting FPL striker who is cheaper than Edouard, however, and he is RMT’s best-value FPL forward for projected points from now until the World Cup break. We can’t 100% rely on Edouard for starts but game-time of some variety is almost guaranteed as a ‘third’ forward in a 3-5-2/4-4-2, and the medium-term opposition couldn’t be much more favourable.
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