Our latest Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goal (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
In addition, we’ll also check out the form players on show, asking if their recent output is sustainable.
Having last looked at these tables ahead of Gameweek 14, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from our Members area.
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TEAMS
First up, let’s take a look at the recent xG data over the last six matches.
In the cases of Brighton and Hove Albion and Chelsea, it’s worth noting that both teams have now played seven league matches under Roberto De Zerbi and Graham Potter respectively, so all of the data you see here is relevant.
However, only one of Aston Villa’s last six matches have been under Unai Emery, which should be factored in.
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
So, what’s changed since last time?
Well, we have a new leader – Arsenal – who have racked up a combined 4.56 xG in their last two matches against Chelsea (a) and Nottingham Forest (h), more than any other side. The Gunners’ fixtures toughen up a bit after the winter World Cup, yet their attacking displays against sides currently inside the top half of the table (see below) suggest they can continue offering value.
| Opponent | Score | xG |
| Tottenham Hotspur (h) | 3-1 | 2.38 |
| Man Utd (a) | 3-1 | 1.32 |
| Chelsea (a) | 0-1 | 2.25 |
| Liverpool (h) | 3-2 | 3.09 |
| Fulham (h) | 2-1 | 2.73 |
| Crystal Palace (a) | 0-2 | 1.00 |
Leeds United jump up six places to fourth, with some decent attacking numbers across the board. In fact, they have returned above 1.7 xG in each of their last three home games, despite winning just one of those matches.
Chelsea have struggled to impose themselves on games recently, which was evident again on Sunday when they managed just one shot on target and 0.29 xG against Arsenal.
CHELSEA XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW10 (WOL) | GW11 (avl) | GW12 (bre) | GW13 (MUN) | GW14 (bha) | GW15 (ARS) | |
| Chelsea | 1.91 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 1.06 | 1.36 | 0.29 |
Elsewhere, whereas Newcastle United have overachieved their xG figure by a whopping +6.59, West Ham United have underperformed in front of goal, scoring just seven goals from 9.81 xG.
Also, a quick word on Brighton. The Seagulls have won only two of their seven league games under De Zerbi. However, they have posted the higher xG tally in four of those matches, averaging a very decent 1.47 xG per game, despite facing all of this season’s Champions League sides in that time.
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
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