Spot the Differential
2 January 2023 634 comments
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Double Gameweek 19 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Fulham, Chelsea and Leicester City, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

WILLIAN

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: lei + CHE | new | TOT | che | NFO

Willian (£5.5m) has been surprisingly impressive since joining Fulham on transfer deadline day.

The Brazilian doesn’t possess a great deal of pace nowadays, but his partnership with Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) is thriving, with the left-back’s advanced positioning allowing Willian to move inside, closer to goal.

Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) is the Cottagers’ creator-in-chief – Kevin De Bruyne (£12.5m) is the only FPL midfielder to have supplied more opportunities (54) than him (41) this season – but Willian is doing his best to keep pace. Indeed, his rate of 2.21 chances created per 90 minutes (p90) isn’t too far behind what Pereira has managed so far (2.64).

It’s also worth noting for a short period on Saturday, he had two assists in two games, before Pereira’s strike was later changed to an own goal. The passage of play stemmed from Willian’s corner, with his share of dead-ball duties another route to FPL points.

In terms of goal threat, he’s averaging an okay-ish 1.35 shots inside the box p90 and 0.37 big chances p90.

As for Fulham, they always play with an attacking mindset, which has seen them score 29 goals in 17 games so far this season, a very impressive return.

Now, they meet Leicester City and Chelsea in Double Gameweek 19, which is then followed by some tricky fixtures. However, the Cottagers have faced all of the current top six already and have scored against them all, which is encouraging.

Willian has been a key player for Fulham this season and is a nice alternative to the more popular Pereira and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£7.1m) picks.

RAHEEM STERLING

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £9.7m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: MCI + ful | CRY | liv | FUL | whu

Raheem Sterling (£9.7m) hasn’t hit top form at Chelsea since his summer switch from Manchester City, scoring four goals and providing two assists in 14 league appearances.

However, the England winger supplied the assist for Kai Havertz’s (£7.8m) opener in Gameweek 17 and followed it up with a goal against Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

Sterling hasn’t been completely immune to Graham Potter’s tinkering so far but has started each of Chelsea’s two matches since the restart. In that time, he has created four chances for his team-mates, more than any other Blues player. Just two shots inside the box have been registered, although Sterling’s past history suggests he can offer plenty of goal threat.

Assessing Sterling’s form, Potter recently said…

“He’s come into a new team that have lost some key players over the summer, brought some new ones in during the transfer window and had a manager change. The team hasn’t functioned as well as I believe it can and Raheem, along with all the players, has suffered for that. It would be wrong for me to say that Raheem has been at the absolute top of his game but he’s not the only one. It’s my responsibility to help the team function better so that he can play better because he’s got the quality of a top player.” – Graham Potter on Raheem Sterling

Chelsea put their pre-World Cup blues behind them with a comfortable 2-0 win over Bournemouth in Gameweek 17. Suggestions they had turned a corner proved to be premature, however, as they labored to a 1-1 draw at The City Ground on Sunday.

Despite that, with games against Manchester City and Fulham in Double Gameweek 19, followed by an appealing Stamford Bridge meeting with Crystal Palace after, midfielder Sterling might just be worth investing in.

HARVEY BARNES

Barnes offering differential potential between now and end of FPL season
  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £6.8m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: FUL | nfo | BHA | avl | TOT

Harvey Barnes (£6.8m) often slips under the FPL radar, with team-mate James Maddison (£8.1m) taking the majority of the headlines.

However, the winger has been putting in some top performances in recent months, scoring five goals in his last 10 league appearances. In fact, from the start of his purple patch in Gameweek 9, he’s racked up 51 points, more than any other FPL midfielder bar Miguel Almiron (£5.9m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.9m), plus Arsenal trio Martin Odegaard (£6.5m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.1m).

Overall this season, no Leicester City player has registered more shots inside the box (26) than Barnes, with his seven big chances, 67 penalty box touches and 218 passes received in the final third also team-leading tallies.

Against Liverpool in Gameweek 18, Barnes needed to show a little more composure in the final third but did get into some promising positions. Encouragingly, he and his Leicester colleagues are now about to meet two of the three worst sides for minutes per xGC in 2022/23: Fulham and Nottingham Forest.

There is no doubt there is more to come from Barnes, who could prove to be a decent differential pick, with his ownership currently sitting at just 1.6%.



634 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Ady87
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Feel like tonight could be a goal fest. Tempted to do Martial > Darwin who then has a good run. Could see Martial getting reduced minutes as he’s a crock and needs to be managed that way.

    1. FPL Brains
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Think there are quite a few players with both in their teams.

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      All conjecture but I can see Martial getting benched. I moved to Mitrovic and kept Nunez myself, wasn't impressed with him against Wolves and I do feel Nunez will have a big game soon, question is when. But I'm doing rubbish anyway so it doesn't really matter which way it goes

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Lots of games in a short space of time tends to result in tired teams and fewer goals/managed games.

      I'm not too worried as a non-Darwin owner.

  2. Meechoo115
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Captain

    A. Mount
    B. Andreas
    C. Haaland
    D. Kepa
    E. Salah
    F. Martial

    1. lilmessipran
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C

    2. thewhitepele
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      B or C (safer)

    3. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Haaland out of those, only Rashford and Mitro as alternatives for me

  3. _Ninja_
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    2FT 0.8m ITB ...Best move here?

    Darwin to Mitro and save the other FT?

    Kepa
    Trippier Shaw White
    KDB Rashford Martinelli Andreas
    Haaland Kane Darwin

    Ward Almiron James Bueno

    1. Neo-Viper
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I did Kane to Mitro

      1. _Ninja_
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Do you not want Kane for the dgw next week?

      2. zdrojo187
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        This

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Your plan for James?

      1. _Ninja_
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Hope Cancelo is back and get him for the double or just get someone like Digne.

        1. Magic Zico
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          Then move for Digne rather than burning FT?

          1. _Ninja_
            • 15 Years
            3 years, 1 month ago

            Could do and play him over white?

  4. _Gunner
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bench one please:

    A- Marti
    B- Darwin

    1. lilmessipran
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A reluctantly

    2. thewhitepele
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

  5. lilmessipran
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Pick one each to play from mids and def

    Mids-
    A Martinelli
    B Almiron

    Def-
    1 White
    2 Trippier

    Currently on A2 which just feels wrong

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A2 looks right to me

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A2

    3. _Gunner
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A
      2

    4. zdrojo187
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      B2

      1. zdrojo187
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Sorry I mean A1

    5. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A1

  6. thewhitepele
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on banking FT? Would have Martial come in for Kulu if he's out. Got 1ft and 0.1m itb so can't do Martial --> Mitro only and doing e.g. Kulu+Martial --> Mount+Mitro gives me a benching headache..

    Kepa
    Cancelo Shaw Trippier
    KDB Kulu* Rash Martinelli Andreas
    KDB Darwin

    Ward, Martial, Patterson, Bueno

  7. The Senate
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    I have 2FT but am 0.1 short for just Nketiah to Mitro

    (A) Burn FT, keep Nketiah
    (B) sell Kane to Darwin/Havertz
    (C) sell DDG to Kepa
    (D) sell Cancelo to Robertson/Cucu/Robinson
    (E) sell KDB to Sterling

    1. lilmessipran
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      2 transfers and get in Mitro?

      1. The Senate
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Yes that is the point of the question

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      D and get Mitro

  8. Claudio555
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Should I bench boost? My current bench is Ward (FUL), Martinelli (NEW), Tripps (ars) and Bueno (avl)?

    1. lilmessipran
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      No

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I think there will be much better opportunities, I'd expect your 3 defenders to concede and wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Martinelli blank given the fixture, him and Trippier being directly up against one another could be an issue too

    3. Claudio555
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Ok make sense. Thanks!

  9. Nate(U)dog(ie)
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Haaland approaching 85% ownership, crazy to see

    1. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I’m just surprised 15% don’t own him. I get if you’re miles back trying to make ground but imo, not having him is FPL suicide. He’s on course for 45 prem goals!

      1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        85% of the entire ownership of every team in the game is madness though, think of all the dead teams created in GW1 or all of the teams some people create each GW trying to win prizes

  10. ronpateluk
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    HNY all

    Kepa (Ward)
    Shaw Cancelo Trippier (White, James inj)
    KDB Rashford Martinelli Andreas (Zaha)
    Haaland Darwin Martial

    2 FTs.
    A. Martial to Mitro + roll 1 FT
    B. Martial to Mitro, Zaha to Odegard, bench someone no idea
    C. Martial to Mitro, James to Varane

  11. Mooster©️
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Which one to bench:
    Almiron, Martinelli, Salah, Darwin?

    1. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Almiron for me

      1. Mooster©️
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Takk!

    2. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Darwin.

      1. Mooster©️
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        You’re downvoted by the others. I need to go Almiron

        1. GreennRed
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          Tight call. Nunez ability to find scoring form is what sways it for me plus Arsenal conceded in 6/7 home games. Would live to see Darwin score a few for all his work ethic. Just needs to slow himself down when it's goaltime. And use his left a bit more!

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Easy Almiron. Arsenal away is possibly the worst fixture on the calendar this year.

      1. Mooster©️
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Thanx!

    4. aapoman
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Almiron and not even close

      1. Mooster©️
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Alrighty!

  12. MGD
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Kepa / Ward
    Shaw - Trippier - Cancelo / White - Patterson
    Salah - KDB - Martinelli - Andreas - Rashford
    Haaland - Martial / Greenwood

    1,2 ITB - 1 FT

    I have Cancelo stinking up my team... Worth just doing Cancelo -> Cucurella or try to get an attacker on doubles like Havertz/Mitro?

    1. tom2224
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Have you watched Chelsea and Cucurella play recently?

  13. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Sell Martial for Mitrovic?

    A yes
    B no

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Yes

  14. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Keep Zaha or switch to Sterling/Mount? I have to use an FT. BB active. Can’t really see any other way in for a doubler?

    Ward
    Trippier Saliba Cancelo
    Salah ZAHA Rashford Martinelli
    Haaland Mitro(c) Martial

    Leno Andreas Bueno Patterson

    1. Here we go McGinn
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I switched Zaha for Mount

  15. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Ahh...

    The Willian transfer trap rears it's head!

    1. Kellz86
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Yeah wouldn’t go near anyone besides Mitro/Andreas from Fulham

  16. dshv
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Actually guys is it a must to bring Mitrovic?

    Possible blank against both foxes and chelsea?

    1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Definitely not a must, but he's a solid option this week and long-term. He's the only player I was happy to bring in this week and keep after it, both fixtures are good for him as both defences are weak IMO. Could get booked and miss Chelsea but Leicester is still a good fixture

    2. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I’ve just bought him in but that’s coz I have Toney who looks like he might be injured tonight and got ban looming. If he didn’t have those 2 things then I probably still would’ve gone Toney to Mitro for a one week DGW punt coz of Liverpool fixture. Though he did get 2 vs city.

      Mitro’s yellow card is a worry though

      1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Frank supposedly said Toney is fine for tonight

    3. tom2224
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Also Mitro is 1 yellow away from suspension

  17. Ruinenlust
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Captain Mitro or Haaland?

    1. SpaceCoyote97
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I'm asking the exact same question. My heart says Mitro, my brain says Haaland, so I think I'll stick with Haaland.

    2. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I’ve gone mitrovic but it’s a toss of a coin. I think he has pretty much exactly half the points of haaland so statistically 2 games for Mitro is the same as 1 for haaland

    3. tom2224
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Rashford

  18. SpaceCoyote97
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Should I keep captain on Haaland or take a gamble on Mitrovic or Andreas?

  19. The Mentaculus
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Worth -4 to bring in Estupinan to start 19 (eve) & 21 (DGW) over Gabriel (NEW) & Patterson (AVL) / Shaw (ars)? Or Castagne (FUL, BHA)?

    1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Are Brighton definitely getting a DGW? Castagne actually has decent fixtures too offensively, just not sure how much I trust a Maddison-less Leicester. Not sure I think a hit for Estupiñan is great either as Brighton have been so poor defensively under de Zerbi (although I know the return of Caicedo and MacAllister will help)

      1. The Mentaculus
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Seems like one of the most certain according to Crellin & co, just a question of who they play. Have the same reservations though, both feel slightly punty & perhaps dependent on attacking returns to pay off. Intended to rotate Gabriel & Shaw in a couple of upcoming fixtures but not quite convinced by any of the other options really. Might just leave it

        1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          Nah that's a fair idea. Will be keeping a close eye on Brighton this week myself, if MacAllister plays and ends up in the more forward role then he's a dead cert for me given he's on penalties too

  20. focaccia
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Who to play - Almiron or Foden?

    1. tom2224
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Almirion

  21. Malkmus
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Morning all. How is this looking? Right subs ?

    Kepa (Ward)
    White - Cancelo- Trips
    Salah- Kdb - Rashford- Almiron- Andreas
    Haaland - Mitro (c)

    Subs - Nketiah, Patterson, Bueno

    Ta

    1. Fish up a tree
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I would play Eddie over Almiron

    2. aapoman
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Nketiah over Almiron and then it's good

      1. Malkmus
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Ok thanks both

  22. aapoman
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Which one? Done with Foden, 2nd time I have him this season and 2nd time he is always benched...

    A. Foden -> Mount
    B. Foden -> Pereira (captain yolo)
    C. Foden, Greenwood -> Pereira, Mitrovic (-4)

    1. DARE TO BISCAN
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C looks good long-term. The double should offset the hit

  23. DARE TO BISCAN
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Morning all. How's she looking?

    Kepa
    Trippier, Cucu, Shaw
    Martinelli, Andreas, KDB, Rashford
    Mitro(c), Haaland, Kane

    (Ward, Almiron, Gabriel, Bueno) 2.8 0FT

    Cucu/Shaw could become Cancelo for DGW20. We'll see (not convinced on that one)

    1. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Similar situation; I’ve reluctantly got martinelli and almiron on bench and playing pope trip saliba Gabriel hoping for a 0-0. Don’t like my mids playing my defenders. Toss of a coin though; could easily be goals in which case I should play martinelli almiron.

      1. DARE TO BISCAN
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah, a tough one to predict. I went with the XI I thought had the highest ceiling. Trippier always has a chance for points/bonus. Ars defence not been as good, of late. Went Saliba > Gab in the break, as a ML differential. Wish I'd saved the cash

  24. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    A play zaha or Andreas?
    B kdb to sterling and captain sterling?

    Cheers

  25. Strchld
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Just can't decide which one have to go for Mitro.

    A) Kane to Mitro (If Kane have DGW20, probably bringing him back next week)

    B) Darwin to Mitro (great fixtures)

    1. DARE TO BISCAN
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I went with Darwin. Keeping Kane for GW20. Can always switch back, or swap Kane for Darwin later. I may just do KDB > Salah, depending on form. Issues for future me to fix 🙂

    2. Kellz86
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Darwin to Mitro imo

      Keep Kane

    3. tom2224
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Darwin for me

    4. Strchld
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks all

  26. focaccia
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Start one:

    A) Foden
    B) Almiron

  27. Tango74
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    I see Ben crellin is saying to save your FT for Gw20 as there could be many DGW. So should I still get Mitrovic ?

    https://twitter.com/bencrellin/status/1609708272025735168?s=46&t=3BDmHE0LhbcBpIVaP_Cyig

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Yes. Get him.

      I'd say roll FT in 20 is good and then you'll be ready since DGWs will really start hitting in GW21.

    2. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I’ve got mitrovic in for Toney. Yeah you could save FT for future week but then you’re missing out on mitrovic DGW this week so it’s swings and roundabouts

    3. Mirror Man
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Crellin Shmellin. Save shmave. The cool kids are taking -8's and benching Trippier etc.

    4. Maddamotha
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Would you do Martial > Mitro?
      Already own Rash and Shaw.

      1. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Ya

      2. tom2224
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        I just did

    5. ACCOUNTING ON CHRIS
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      2fts and 0.9m itb

      Kepa Ward

      James* Cancelo* Trippier Shaw Gabriel

      Martinelli KDB Rashford Andreas Almiron

      Mitro Darwin* Haaland

      Planning on doing James to Bueno so I can do Darwin to Kane for the DGW, is that sane? Can't see any other sensible move.

    6. richb71
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Hi all and a happy new year!

      What do you think to using my FT for Kane to Mitro? I won't lose any money from Kane as I only transferred him in with WC over world cup period but not sure of his points haul away to Palace. I would then probably swap back for Spurs double in game week 20

      KEPA (Ward)
      CUCU - Trippier - Shaw (Perraud, Bueno)
      Kdb - Almiron - Martinelli - Rashford - (ANDREAS)
      Haaland - Darwin - Kane

      Cheers

      1. DARE TO BISCAN
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        I swapped for Darwin. Kane has been more reliable than Darwin, so far, and has the DGW. Also playing Andreas over Almiron

        1. OptimusBlack
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          Who is ur C ?

          1. DARE TO BISCAN
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 1 month ago

            Mitro. Feck it. Scrolly up a bit for full squad

          2. richb71
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 1 month ago

            mayb mitro if i bring him in....then tempted to use BB as i don't know who to sub for Andreas