Spot the Differential
2 January 2023 634 comments
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Double Gameweek 19 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Fulham, Chelsea and Leicester City, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

WILLIAN

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: lei + CHE | new | TOT | che | NFO

Willian (£5.5m) has been surprisingly impressive since joining Fulham on transfer deadline day.

The Brazilian doesn’t possess a great deal of pace nowadays, but his partnership with Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) is thriving, with the left-back’s advanced positioning allowing Willian to move inside, closer to goal.

Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) is the Cottagers’ creator-in-chief – Kevin De Bruyne (£12.5m) is the only FPL midfielder to have supplied more opportunities (54) than him (41) this season – but Willian is doing his best to keep pace. Indeed, his rate of 2.21 chances created per 90 minutes (p90) isn’t too far behind what Pereira has managed so far (2.64).

It’s also worth noting for a short period on Saturday, he had two assists in two games, before Pereira’s strike was later changed to an own goal. The passage of play stemmed from Willian’s corner, with his share of dead-ball duties another route to FPL points.

In terms of goal threat, he’s averaging an okay-ish 1.35 shots inside the box p90 and 0.37 big chances p90.

As for Fulham, they always play with an attacking mindset, which has seen them score 29 goals in 17 games so far this season, a very impressive return.

Now, they meet Leicester City and Chelsea in Double Gameweek 19, which is then followed by some tricky fixtures. However, the Cottagers have faced all of the current top six already and have scored against them all, which is encouraging.

Willian has been a key player for Fulham this season and is a nice alternative to the more popular Pereira and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£7.1m) picks.

RAHEEM STERLING

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £9.7m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: MCI + ful | CRY | liv | FUL | whu

Raheem Sterling (£9.7m) hasn’t hit top form at Chelsea since his summer switch from Manchester City, scoring four goals and providing two assists in 14 league appearances.

However, the England winger supplied the assist for Kai Havertz’s (£7.8m) opener in Gameweek 17 and followed it up with a goal against Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

Sterling hasn’t been completely immune to Graham Potter’s tinkering so far but has started each of Chelsea’s two matches since the restart. In that time, he has created four chances for his team-mates, more than any other Blues player. Just two shots inside the box have been registered, although Sterling’s past history suggests he can offer plenty of goal threat.

Assessing Sterling’s form, Potter recently said…

“He’s come into a new team that have lost some key players over the summer, brought some new ones in during the transfer window and had a manager change. The team hasn’t functioned as well as I believe it can and Raheem, along with all the players, has suffered for that. It would be wrong for me to say that Raheem has been at the absolute top of his game but he’s not the only one. It’s my responsibility to help the team function better so that he can play better because he’s got the quality of a top player.” – Graham Potter on Raheem Sterling

Chelsea put their pre-World Cup blues behind them with a comfortable 2-0 win over Bournemouth in Gameweek 17. Suggestions they had turned a corner proved to be premature, however, as they labored to a 1-1 draw at The City Ground on Sunday.

Despite that, with games against Manchester City and Fulham in Double Gameweek 19, followed by an appealing Stamford Bridge meeting with Crystal Palace after, midfielder Sterling might just be worth investing in.

HARVEY BARNES

Barnes offering differential potential between now and end of FPL season
  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £6.8m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: FUL | nfo | BHA | avl | TOT

Harvey Barnes (£6.8m) often slips under the FPL radar, with team-mate James Maddison (£8.1m) taking the majority of the headlines.

However, the winger has been putting in some top performances in recent months, scoring five goals in his last 10 league appearances. In fact, from the start of his purple patch in Gameweek 9, he’s racked up 51 points, more than any other FPL midfielder bar Miguel Almiron (£5.9m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.9m), plus Arsenal trio Martin Odegaard (£6.5m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.1m).

Overall this season, no Leicester City player has registered more shots inside the box (26) than Barnes, with his seven big chances, 67 penalty box touches and 218 passes received in the final third also team-leading tallies.

Against Liverpool in Gameweek 18, Barnes needed to show a little more composure in the final third but did get into some promising positions. Encouragingly, he and his Leicester colleagues are now about to meet two of the three worst sides for minutes per xGC in 2022/23: Fulham and Nottingham Forest.

There is no doubt there is more to come from Barnes, who could prove to be a decent differential pick, with his ownership currently sitting at just 1.6%.



634 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Taegugk Warrior
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Any stand out fulham def..?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      2 punts

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Not really standout but probably Ream or Tete

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        yeah

        Tete for assist potential

        Any Fulham fans think he'll play both?

  2. MADCHESTER UTD
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Hi all

    Pope
    Trippier saliba Gabriel cancelo
    Barnes Andreas Rashford
    Kane haaland mitro (c)

    Ward casagnetti martinelli almiron hoping for a 0-0 at emirates

    Or do I go ward and martinelli for pope trippier and hope arsenal score? Doesn’t help ward is playing Andreas mitrov

  3. Roshen
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bench one:
    1) Nunez
    2) Martinelli
    3) Andreas
    4) KDB

    1. Birdman77
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Reluctantly 2

  4. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Morning all. HNY!!

    I have 1FT left with 0.1itb. Defence looks my main weakness. Is it worth switching out James and then benching Cancelo? Who’s the best replacement if so? I like the Shaw pick this week but unsure longer term?
    Thank you 🙂

    Kepa
    Cancelo, Tripps, White
    KDB, Saka, Rash, Andreas
    Haaland, Darwin, Mitro
    (Ward, Miggy, James**, B.Williams**)

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      If amazingly Cancelo did not play you have no bench cover, so yes it's worth it

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        James >> Shaw or perhaps even just B.Williams >> Bueno?

  5. Tiggsy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Genuinely considering benching Haaland this week. Feels stupid but I need some differentials to catch up in some of my leagues and Ward-Prowse vs. Forest feels a reasonably likely source of points (only projected a little bit less than Haaland). I can see Chelsea being able to shut Haaland out but like, it's Haaland.

    1. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Don’t bench haaland. I remember benching RVP vs Chelsea at Stamford bridge and he got hatrick. I get you’re trying to catch up but not playing haaland us not the answer.

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      😆

    3. Fabreghastly
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Some are considering Capping Haaland over Mitro, but each to their own 🙂

    4. Rojo's Modern Life
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Chelsea allowed Forest several chances yesterday. They won't keep Haaland out

    5. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      The risk is higher than the upside by benching Haaland

  6. Scotty Dog
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play almiron or martinelli this week?

    1. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Martinelli just coz he’s at home but it’s toss of a coin. Tough week this with 6 arsenal Newcastle players

      1. MADCHESTER UTD
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        I’ll add that currently I’m benching both

    2. marcos11
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Martinelli

    3. Scotty Dog
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Cheers, I could see it being quite an open game with a few goals whichever I go it'll be the wrong one.

      1. Neo-Viper
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Tell me which one you choose then, i will go the opposite!

  7. El Presidente
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    If you had to chose ONE Chelsea player to have this DGW, which one would you pick?

    1. Nightf0x
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Kepa

  8. Pascal's Triangle
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bruno to Sterling for free and captain - madness?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      HP Lovecraftian levels of madness.

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      it's a plan

  9. FPLSuarridge
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Hi all ;),

    Ward
    Trippier White Perraud
    Salah KDB Rashford Marti Almiron
    Haaland Kane

    Iverson Bueno Patterson Greenwood

    2FT , 0 ITB, what would you guys do? I'm just in the 200k comment away!!! Thanks in advance 🙂

    1. DLLM
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Replace perraud

  10. hammersp2000
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Hey guys

    Is KDB to either sterling of mount a good move?

    I'll probably want KDB back next week though if they have a DGW

    Thanks

    1. FCHaalandaise
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      They already do have a dgw

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      No

  11. DV8R
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bench 1 from

    A) Trippier
    B) Cancelo
    C) White

    1. King Prawn
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Probably Trippier. I can’t see Newcastle keeping a clean sheet away to Arsenal

    2. Lieutenant Frank Columbo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Never, ever bench Trippier. Ever.

      Bench B

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        agreed

        B

    3. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C

    4. Tiggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Cancelo. At the moment he's struggling to even start

  12. King Prawn
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    I’ve got Halaand, Kane and Darwin upfront. Is Mitro essential? If so, should I:
    1. Transfer for Kane
    2. Transfer for Darwin
    3. Save

    1. FCHaalandaise
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Save

    2. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Mitro isn’t essential

      1. Rojo's Modern Life
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        This week, he's essential

    3. Lieutenant Frank Columbo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      3

    4. tim
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I have Darwin and Haaland and Greenwood

      Cant get Greenwood to Mitro without hits, so saving FT and going without Mitro.

      Haaland(C)

      1. King Prawn
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Do you have Andreas? Do you think he’s a better captain this week than Halaand?

        1. tim
          • 16 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          Dont have Andreas.

          Kdb Salah Rashford Martinelli Almiron and plan to play all of them.

  13. Jones Kusi
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts?
    1.1 ITB 2 FT
    Thinking Martial > Mitrovic but not sure if I should save my 2nd transfer or not.

    Ward Kepa
    Bueno Trippier James Cancelo White
    KDB Rashford Andreas Almiron Martinelli
    Darwin Haaland Martial

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      just Mitrovic

  14. MikeLowrey
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    A) Roll FT
    B) Foden to Andreas
    C) Kulu & Foden to Sterling & Andreas (-4)
    D) Foden & Greenwood to Andreas & Mitro (-4)

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      D

  15. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Hi all. Few questions for you

    1) any Robertson news?

    2) would u hokey dokey kdb/salah this wk?

    3) would u BB this?
    (Ward/Rodrigo/Patterson/Bueno)

    Thanks a mil.

  16. George Agdgdgwngo
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Got 2FTs.

    How does Castagne > Botman sound?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Mid term yes, but maybe not the best week to do it.

  17. The Wizard of Ozil
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Kepa (Ward)
    Trippier - Shaw - Cucu (Patterson,Bueno)
    Salah - KDB - Rashford - Martinelli - Andreas
    Haaland - Darwin (Greenwood)

    A) Darwin -> Mitro(C)
    B) Save and have 2ft’s for possible upcoming doubles

    Starting to lean towards B

  18. it lies in the proles
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    KDB to Sterling yes/no?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Tempting, but no

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      it's bullish

  19. shirtless
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Might actually keep Zaha, and switch Martial to Havertz? Gives me a better fixture next week, as Utd play City, then bring in Kulu for Zaha for the DGW.

    One goal in three weeks from Martial and move on. Spurs are looking very Spursy. Zaha might just do some damage.

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Sound plan for Zaha, like this fixture for him too

  20. how now brown cow
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Wilson to mitro?

    Just know he sick note is going to hit form the minute I sell him.

  21. FCHaalandaise
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play Ward or Pope?

    Please and thanks

    1. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Ward

  22. KUNingas
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    2FTs, 2.3 ITB

    A) Martial -> Mitro, save another FT
    B) James -> Digne, save another FT
    C) Both above

    Currently leaning towards A and see next week if Dalot is ready to be transferred in

  23. The Frenchie
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Pick two:

    Mount (MCI, FUL)
    Havertz (MCI, FUL)
    Kane (CRY)
    Salah (BRE)
    De Bruyne (CHE)

    Already own Kepa, Andreas and Mitrovic (c)

    Cheers guys

    1. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Salah and kane

      1. The Frenchie
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks

  24. Danstoke82
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Am chasing in cash ML and leader has Mitro. Should I bring in Mitro for a -4 and captain?

    A) Darwin > Mitro (c)
    B) Kane > Mitro (c)
    C) neither and just have Kepa + Andreas for DGW

    Thanks in advance!

    1. The Frenchie
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I did A

      1. Danstoke82
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        I’m leaning towards A. I know losing Darwin is dodgy but I plan to bring in Salah soon to cover LIV attack.

  25. MADCHESTER UTD
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    At least captaining mitrovic even if he blanks 1st game and haaland hauls, at least you know he’s got another game coming up to catch up points. Rather than captains haaland who scores say 1 then that’s it for the week

    1. FCHaalandaise
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Even if Mitro had 3 games I'd probably still captain Haaland

    2. Jimmers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      not if Mittrovic gets a yellow in the first game..............

      1. MADCHESTER UTD
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        That is a worry…..

  26. FPLSuarridge
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Anymore suggestions everyone!!!

    1. FPLSuarridge
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Ward
      Trippier White Perraud
      Salah KDB Rashford Marti Almiron
      Haaland Kane

      Iverson Bueno Patterson Greenwood

      2FT , 0 ITB, what would you guys do? I'm just in the 200k comment away!!! Thanks in advance

      1. The Mentaculus
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Having 4 premiums really limits the flexibility of your squad in being able to chase DGW hauls. Would consider downgrading one of them

  27. Vote Joke
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Trippier or Cancelo? Hmmmm

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Trip

      1. Vote Joke
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers

  28. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play zaha or Andreas? Cheers.

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Andreas

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers

  29. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Morning all. Bench order correct? (C) worth gamble? Thanks

    Kepa
    Trippier, Shaw, Saliba
    KDB, Rashford, Martinelli, Andreas
    Haaland, Kane, Mitro(C)

    Ward, Almiron, Bueno, Faes

    1. Vote Joke
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Yep

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers

    2. FPL Brains
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Brave. Looks good.

  30. gooberman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    So many decisions to make and Im struggling with all of them. Who to captain, who to bench and what transfer to do! Headache central.

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Put your team and C in and we'll try help.

      1. gooberman
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Currently before any changes with 2 frees:

        Ward
        Shaw, Cancelo, Trippier
        Saka, Odegaard, Rashford, Kulusevski
        Mitrovic, Haaland (C), Kane
        Bench, Pope, Almiron, White, Bueno