Spot the Differential
2 January 2023 634 comments
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Double Gameweek 19 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Fulham, Chelsea and Leicester City, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

WILLIAN

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: lei + CHE | new | TOT | che | NFO

Willian (£5.5m) has been surprisingly impressive since joining Fulham on transfer deadline day.

The Brazilian doesn’t possess a great deal of pace nowadays, but his partnership with Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) is thriving, with the left-back’s advanced positioning allowing Willian to move inside, closer to goal.

Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) is the Cottagers’ creator-in-chief – Kevin De Bruyne (£12.5m) is the only FPL midfielder to have supplied more opportunities (54) than him (41) this season – but Willian is doing his best to keep pace. Indeed, his rate of 2.21 chances created per 90 minutes (p90) isn’t too far behind what Pereira has managed so far (2.64).

It’s also worth noting for a short period on Saturday, he had two assists in two games, before Pereira’s strike was later changed to an own goal. The passage of play stemmed from Willian’s corner, with his share of dead-ball duties another route to FPL points.

In terms of goal threat, he’s averaging an okay-ish 1.35 shots inside the box p90 and 0.37 big chances p90.

As for Fulham, they always play with an attacking mindset, which has seen them score 29 goals in 17 games so far this season, a very impressive return.

Now, they meet Leicester City and Chelsea in Double Gameweek 19, which is then followed by some tricky fixtures. However, the Cottagers have faced all of the current top six already and have scored against them all, which is encouraging.

Willian has been a key player for Fulham this season and is a nice alternative to the more popular Pereira and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£7.1m) picks.

RAHEEM STERLING

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £9.7m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: MCI + ful | CRY | liv | FUL | whu

Raheem Sterling (£9.7m) hasn’t hit top form at Chelsea since his summer switch from Manchester City, scoring four goals and providing two assists in 14 league appearances.

However, the England winger supplied the assist for Kai Havertz’s (£7.8m) opener in Gameweek 17 and followed it up with a goal against Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

Sterling hasn’t been completely immune to Graham Potter’s tinkering so far but has started each of Chelsea’s two matches since the restart. In that time, he has created four chances for his team-mates, more than any other Blues player. Just two shots inside the box have been registered, although Sterling’s past history suggests he can offer plenty of goal threat.

Assessing Sterling’s form, Potter recently said…

“He’s come into a new team that have lost some key players over the summer, brought some new ones in during the transfer window and had a manager change. The team hasn’t functioned as well as I believe it can and Raheem, along with all the players, has suffered for that. It would be wrong for me to say that Raheem has been at the absolute top of his game but he’s not the only one. It’s my responsibility to help the team function better so that he can play better because he’s got the quality of a top player.” – Graham Potter on Raheem Sterling

Chelsea put their pre-World Cup blues behind them with a comfortable 2-0 win over Bournemouth in Gameweek 17. Suggestions they had turned a corner proved to be premature, however, as they labored to a 1-1 draw at The City Ground on Sunday.

Despite that, with games against Manchester City and Fulham in Double Gameweek 19, followed by an appealing Stamford Bridge meeting with Crystal Palace after, midfielder Sterling might just be worth investing in.

HARVEY BARNES

Barnes offering differential potential between now and end of FPL season
  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £6.8m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: FUL | nfo | BHA | avl | TOT

Harvey Barnes (£6.8m) often slips under the FPL radar, with team-mate James Maddison (£8.1m) taking the majority of the headlines.

However, the winger has been putting in some top performances in recent months, scoring five goals in his last 10 league appearances. In fact, from the start of his purple patch in Gameweek 9, he’s racked up 51 points, more than any other FPL midfielder bar Miguel Almiron (£5.9m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.9m), plus Arsenal trio Martin Odegaard (£6.5m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.1m).

Overall this season, no Leicester City player has registered more shots inside the box (26) than Barnes, with his seven big chances, 67 penalty box touches and 218 passes received in the final third also team-leading tallies.

Against Liverpool in Gameweek 18, Barnes needed to show a little more composure in the final third but did get into some promising positions. Encouragingly, he and his Leicester colleagues are now about to meet two of the three worst sides for minutes per xGC in 2022/23: Fulham and Nottingham Forest.

There is no doubt there is more to come from Barnes, who could prove to be a decent differential pick, with his ownership currently sitting at just 1.6%.



634 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. YouReds
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Would you BB Ward, Almiron, White, Bueno?

    1. Vote Joke
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      No

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Got the same here bar Bueno > Patterson and won't do it GW23 is potentially better

    3. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      yeah

      Why not

      Almiron could assist and White heads one in

    4. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      No

  2. jcr1997
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play 1 of the following :

    Patterson
    Bueno
    Trippier

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Don't bench the highest scoring defender

    2. ball c
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Trippier

  3. Fernandito
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Who would you bench:

    A Trippier
    B Cancelo

    I know Trippier on form and Cancelo been benched recently but Arsenal could be a tough game for Trippier

    1. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      B

  4. Magic Hamster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    2 FT, thinking James to Cucu and KDB to Salah.

    Seem sensible?

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      First one is fine for short term, KDB to Salah not so sure if next week KDB got a double

  5. abaalan
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    2 FT, 0.3 ITB - which would you do?
    A) Nunez -> Mitro / Havertz
    B) Nunez + Peraud > Mitro/Havertz + Azpi
    C) Nunez + Almiron -> Mitro + Mount

    Really think Nunez will explode sooner or later so bit loathe to get rid of (could be vs Brentford this week!?)

    1. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

  6. Ruinenlust
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Captain Haaland or Mitro?

    1. ball c
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I’ve gone with Mitro

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      DGW is fun, Mitro it is

  7. royals forever
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Are there any changes that you make to this team

    Kepa

    Trippier White Shaw

    Sterling Saka Rashford Mount Peirera

    Haaland Darwin

    Ward Wilson Botman Patterson

    4.3 ITB 1FT

    Any ideas would be welcomed

  8. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    GTG ?
    Ramsdale (Ward)
    Cucu - Shaw - Trippier (White Patt
    Rashford - KDB - Andreas - Ødegaard (Almiron)
    Kane - Mitro C - Haaland
    0 FT 2.6 itb

    A- Ramsdale > Leno or Kepa for -4
    B- White > Digne or DGW defender for -4
    C- Keep it like that
    D- Keep it but C Haaland

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Thxxxx

  9. Henning
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Darwin or Kane out for Mitrovic or keep ft?

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Darwin especially if you've got Salah

  10. runupstream
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Foden for Sterling for -4?

  11. Skout
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    A) Almiron to Mount
    B) James to Cuc / someone else
    C) Save the FT

    1 FT, 1.9m itb
    Kepa
    Tripper Shaw Patterson
    KDB Martinelli Rash Andreas
    Haaland Kane Mitro

    Ward R.James* Almiron Bueno

  12. ball c
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    A with Kepa.

    1. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      ?

  13. ball c
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    7.8m itb to spend on a James replacement:
    Which is best option;

    A) Trent
    B) Cucu
    C) Botman
    D) anyone else

    Back line & current team:

    Kepa
    Walker - James - Beuno - Trippier - Shaw
    KDB - Salah - Rashford - Andreas - Martinelli
    Mitro - Haaland - Greenwood

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      D

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Tete or Pascal Struijk to punt or Shaw to play it safer this week.

        1. AC/DC AFC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          scrub Shaw

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Save FT or AVL/NEW def maybe?

    3. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C Botman
      with 3.4m ITB to upgrade Greenwood any spare money Pope

  14. ididnt
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Haaland is the only logical c choice every gw

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Unless you sniff the chance to get an upside albeit risky

    2. MrZ
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      No tks. Vs kepa

  15. FCSB
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Kepa
    Trippier White Cancelo
    Andreas Martinelli Rashford Salah
    Mitrovic Darwin Haaland

    Ward Almiron Bueno James

    1FT, 1.6itb

    What to do here please, anything worth the 1FT or save?

    Thanks

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      GTG. Only thing I'd consider is selling James for someone you could start over White (also providing cover in the event of Cancelo no-show), but its not strictly necessary

  16. mdm
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Not sure what to do with 2 FTs.. Please, advise:

    A. Cancelo to Cucu
    B. Gabriel to Cucu
    C. burn FT

    Thanks.

    1. Veni Vidi Vialli
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C

  17. HEY JUDE
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    HELP!! Play 2 of them

    1 Martineli
    2 Trippier
    3 Almiron
    4 Nktiah

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      BB?

      Or bench Nketiah

    2. One Flew Over The Goalies N…
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Play 1&2

  18. tim
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Mitro yellow in the first 20mins.

    Captain Haaland hattie.

    Just saying.

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Congrats! 😛

    2. ididnt
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      It’s written in the wind…

    3. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      That still permits a hatty in the 90 against leaky Leicester

  19. Malinwa
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    A) Darwin + Castagne > Mitro + Shaw/Cucu
    B) Ward + Darwin > Leno + Mitro (have Kepa)

    Thanks!

    1. Veni Vidi Vialli
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

      1. Malinwa
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Cucu or Shaw?
        Cheers

  20. mikeyboss33
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Salah to Mount or Sterling?

    1. Malinwa
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Mount

  21. FantasyClub
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Guys I need some advice please

    Bench???
    A) Zaha vs TOT(h)
    B) Antony vs BOU(h)

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Bench Zaha so that he can troll you 😉

  22. aapoman
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Andreas captain anyone? Mitro would require a -4 so don't think it's worth bringing him in. Haaland also an option but a bit boring.

  23. John Colby (C)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bruno for the gw19 armband anyone?

  24. lewis274
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Robertson to start?

  25. Fodderx4
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Any news on Robbo's injury, what are the chances of him starting and if not is he likely to come off the bench? Currently starting him over Bueno and White.

    a) play robbo
    b) play bueno
    c) play white

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      C

      But start Robbo if you have him still

      1. Bluetiger1
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Good call using White as first on the bench

    2. Fabreghastly
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      a

      I think Newcastle will score so it's worth the risk of a cameo

  26. GCM0803
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    2FT
    Darwin > mitro
    Cancelo > shaw ?

    1. Fabreghastly
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      TAA?

  27. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    which teams could double for gw23? cheers

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        thanks

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Just Arsenal & City I think. This chart is quite handy (draws probabilities from Crellin):
      https://twitter.com/MikkelTokvam/status/1608845823709958146/photo/1

  28. klopptimusprime
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bench 1
    - White
    - Cancelo
    - Trippier
    - Castagne

    1. aapoman
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Castagne

    2. Fabreghastly
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Castagne

    3. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Castagne

  29. Stranger Mings
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play Patterson (BRI) over Walker (che) right?

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Pat

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers just can’t see city cleansheet

    2. aapoman
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Walker

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Oh I know city have better cleansheet odds but just can’t see them keeping one

  30. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Happy New Year, all! Bit of a quandary.

    Leno (Sa)

    Trippier | Saliba | Cancelo (N. Williams, Patterson)

    KdB | Martinelli | Rashford | Andreas | Almiron

    Haaland | Nunez (Moore)

    2FTs and 0.3 itb. Toying with Moore + Cancelo --> Mitro + a def, but am really not excited by any of the alternatives to Cancelo. Chelsea look shaky at the back and not sure who's nailed on; ditto Man City; don't wanna double up on Fulham. Not even considering Spurs. The other short-term good fixture teams (Sou, Hammers) aren't doing well defensively at the moment. Villa might be worth a punt.

    But would only make the moves to bring in Mitro, who'll undoubtedly pick up his 5th yellow against Leicester... Think I've talked myself into sticking for now. Thanks for listening.

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Yo Becks! Guess you're playing the regular (non-differential) game as a 2nd chance thing now? I would go for Shaw & Mitrovic