Big Numbers
11 January 2023 1483 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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With three more Gameweeks’ worth of Premier League player and team data available to assess after the Boxing Day restart, it’s time to once again wheel out the Big Numbers article ahead of Double Gameweek 20.

If you’re new to the site, this article series looks at the key Fantasy Premier League (FPL) statistics ahead of the upcoming Gameweek.

These cherry-picked Opta stats can all be found in our Premium Members’ Area.

Only subscribers can read the full article; those wishing to sign up to our site and continue reading, as well as see a list of the benefits that Membership brings, can do so by clicking here.




33 goals conceded by Gavin Bazunu (£4.5m) this season, a whopping 11.3 more than what Opta deem he should have shipped (21.7) based on the quality of shots he has faced. Southampton, despite being bottom of the league, actually have the eighth-best expected goals conceded (xGC) average in the division in 2022/23.

337 baseline bonus points registered by David Raya (£4.6m) in 2022/23, the most of any goalkeeper. It’s not just saves that are boosting his bonus points potential (he has 21 save points this season, the highest in the league) but he also leads the way for recoveries, which covers things like crosses claimed and loose balls pounced on. Having relatively easy, score-boosting stops to make can be important for an FPL goalkeeper, and Raya has that perfect blend in west London: the Bees are 20th for shots on target allowed but joint-eighth for big chances conceded.

7 shots in the box attempted by Fabian Schar (£5.0m) since the restart, the most by any FPL defender and more even than the likes of Marcus Rashford (£7.0m) and Anthony Martial (£6.6m) have managed – albeit without scoring. Over the course of 2022/23, the Switzerland international is the leading Fantasy defender for both goal attempts (23) and big chances (four). Ironically, his only goal came from 25 yards out.

6 big chances created by Kieran Trippier (£6.0m) since play resumed in Gameweek 17. That’s a tally that only one other defender, Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m), has managed to beat in the whole of 2022/23, let alone the last three Gameweeks.

FPL Gameweek 10: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus and statistics

98% of Premier League matches started by an available Joao Cancelo (£7.2m) between August 2021 and November 2022, with his only benching during that time coming in Gameweek 25 of last season when many other City regulars made way. Cancelo has played just 67 minutes since the post-World Cup restart.

14 penalty area touches in three Gameweeks recorded by Matt Doherty (£4.6m), the most by any FPL defender since Premier League football resumed in December. Only the aforementioned Schar beats him for shots in the box (six) in that time. It’s a Double Gameweek up next for Doherty and Spurs, although whether Antonio Conte’s semi-frequent rotation at wing-back deprives the Irishman of the chance to start two games is another question. A minutes-per-shot-in-the-box average of 61.1 is the best of any Fantasy defender this season (min. five appearances), to show what he can do when he is given the chance. Similarly…

239.4 minutes per expected goal involvement (xGI) is Ivan Perisic‘s (£5.5m) defender-best average in 2022/23 (min. five apps). The problem, again, has been game-time guarantees: of the combined 29 appearances made by Doherty and Perisic this season, 11 of them have been as substitutes and only five have lasted 90 minutes.


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  1. DavvaMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Can't decide who to bring in?

    A. Mitoma
    B. Almiron
    C. Mahrez

    Thanks

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      B

    2. Heiro
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Mahrez

    3. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      D. Bennerman

    4. FPL Brains
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      B but all good choices

    5. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      A

  2. vova
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Hey guys, a bit stuck on what to do with my team… got 2 free transfers so have at least one transfer to burn

    Kepa Ward
    Cancelo Trippier Dalot White Bueno
    Salah Saka Martinelli Rashford Andreas
    Haaland Darwin Mitrovic

    0.3 ITD

    Was thinking of shifting Cancelo/Dalot but not sure to who...

    Any advice?

    Thank you!

    1. FPL Brains
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Cancelo to Shaw. Play Dalot and hope he's back for Palace worst case?

  3. FPL Brains
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    An early repost for you.

    Current team;

    Ederson
    Trippier - Botman - Shaw
    Martinelli - Salah - Almiron - Rashford
    Haaland - Darwin - Martial

    Kepa - Odegaard - White - James

    Got 2FT, 0ITB.

    Am I better of doing;

    1) Salah > KDB and roll 1FT
    2) Darwin > Kane, Salah > Mahrez

    Trying to weigh up if Kane is essential and if I even want Liverpool assets for their potential DGW

    1. Heiro
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      I have Kane and I wouldn't being him in.

      I have Darwin also and can't bring myself to take him out despite him missing so many chances.

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      2 for the upside, could do reversed moves next week for a hit if needed.

      1. FPL Brains
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Looking to avoid hits this season.

        An alternative is Martinelli > Mahrez and James > 5mil or less.

  4. Heiro
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Cooper to Botman?

    Boring transfer but can't bring myself to take Darwin out for Kane

    Gives me 2FTbnext week still

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Liam Cooper? Yeah he's gotta go. Kind of ridiculous that he's the same price as Botman

  5. Vlad Tepes
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    2 FT

    Salah --> KDB
    Cancelo --> ? or keep him?

    1. Heiro
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Think it depends if chasing. You won't make any ground doing that I expect as every man and their dog will have done the same.

      1. Vlad Tepes
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Im chasing but got other differentials to catch up with, Salah to KDB I think is a no brainer but Cancelo to Stones feels way to sideways.

    2. Boz
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      I'd do both. Cancelo not worth the money

  6. Miguel Sanchez
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    On a WC so for next couple:

    A) Son (ARS, mci, ful)
    B) Odegaard (tot, MAN)

    1. TheTinman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      B. Arsenal likely to have a double coming so if you look slightly longer than 3 weeks Odegaard is a way better pick

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      B. I'm keeping a sharp eye out for Son's return to form but can't see it yet unfortunately

    3. Pegboy
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Don't be fooled by the goal, Son is still playing v.poorly.

  7. Bggz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Do we know about doubles or blanks gw21 onwards? Liverpool etc

  8. Salarrivederci
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Gtg or would you start Bailey > Bueno?

    2.4 ITB and I've taken a hit.

    Ederson
    Trippier - Shaw - Roerslev - Bueno
    Salah - KDB - Rashford
    Haaland - Havertz - Martial

    (Ward, Bailey, Andreas, Patterson)

    1. mcginnntonic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      play bailey imo

  9. Bishopool
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Pretty classic situation with Cancelo. Basically there is no indications that Cancelo will be benched against upcoming PL fixtures. Yes, we can assume that Lewis gets nod, but thats also an assumption. Meanwhile we can say that Pep did not sub him off when it was the most critical moment yesterday. They did have to score and defend at the same time. That shows trust.

    I think im keeping Cancelo and will see what happens. I think mostly they have locker room issues, because ManC are not what they were before WC.

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Strongly disagree on "no indications"

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Powers are self-delusion are strong among the bishopric, I see

      1. The Mentaculus
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        *of self-delusion
        🙄

      2. The Mentaculus
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Not sure what you mean by "classic situation" - this is quite new for Cancelo. And "trust" isn't the word I'd use for leaving him to 90mins in a cup game where all the key players are rested / rotated ahead of 2 huge, tricky league games

        1. FPL Brains
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          Couldn't agree more.

          But it's funny how different people put different spins on the same situation.

          1. My heart goes Salalalalah
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 26 days ago

            "funny" isn't the word I'd use...

        2. Bishopool
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          "classic situation" meaning you see one game and there is panic.

    3. Bishopool
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      If there are refences that say Cancelo will be 100% dropped, please share with me.

  10. DantheManinaPan
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Salah to De Bruyne a no brainer for me.

    Question is whether I also move Cancelo to Akanji (for free)

    I'm not sure Akanji's ceiling is really that high though, and I think having 2FTs in hand could be very useful over the next weeks...

    But still leaning towards making the move.

    1. Boz
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      I'm getting rid of Cancelo. Just not a long term option anymore

  11. Boz
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    1FT

    Cancelo to...
    A) Shaw
    B) Stones

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      A

    2. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Shaw takes priority for multiple reasons atm

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Also, do we have another update on Stones? Is he now fit?

    3. Cojones of Destiny
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      A

    4. Fodderx4
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      a

  12. TheTinman
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Any news / rumours on Dalot fitness?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Last I saw:

      https://twitter.com/ColmVHayes/status/1613108694706692098?s=20&t=ZebhK07Z6hmYi5wh3F3TBw

      Erik ten Hag on Dalot injury: "Diogo came off but it was a precaution. We have to see how it develops.

      "I think it is not serious. [We did not want to] take a risk when we have, on Saturday, an important game."

  13. TheTinman
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Cancelo has never had massive attacking returns. He has always pushed his price up because City usually keep so many clean sheets and as stated in the article above, over the last season or so he has been the only city defender 100% nailed.

    A) City aren't keeping as many cleansheets
    B) Cancelo is not guaranteed starts

    Bite the bullet and get rid. He's not worth £7m anymore, not even close.

    1. Vlad Tepes
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Nope but if you have him for this week, why get rid? Long term yes.

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Because he's the most likely player in your XI to get 1 or 2 points, and there are reliable options elsewhere

        The idea of keeping someone who isn't guaranteed starts in a double applies more to attackers. Say, Foden can stay for DGW20 and go in GW21 because he might start one and come off the bench in another, or he might come off the bench in both. For attackers, this adds up to 60+ mins of a chance of scoring/assisting

        For a defender lacking form and confidence and even the simplicity of his coach's trust, "60 mins off the bench" doesn't scream "good chance of attacking returns"

        But to be clear, my point doesn't stand if you believe Cancelo starts one/both of those matches. I strongly feel Pep has said and done everything possible to show that Cancelo has been out of the first XI since the World Cup

  14. Sloane426
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    2 FTS. Doing Cancelo to Shaw for 1
    How would you use the other?
    (A) Darwin > Kane
    (B) James > Schar
    (C) Save Transfer
    I would start White if I don’t do B.

    1. Fodderx4
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      a

  15. mcginnntonic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    I’m bench boosting this, thoughts? Cost me a -8 (telling myself it’s a -4). Also wishing I went with almiron over eze.

    Kepa Ward
    Trippier Botman Doherty Shaw Dalot
    Martinelli Eze Andreas KDB Rashford
    Haaland Kane Nunez

    How does it look

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      If you haven't taken those hits yet, please consider BB23 before locking this in. You have FTs to prepare for it

  16. Cojones of Destiny
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    who’d you prioritize getting;
    a. Shaw
    b. Kane
    c. KDB or Mahrez

    1. Fodderx4
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      b

  17. Arteta
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    I still don't fully understand the need and hype for a City defender, especially if you already had or just bought attackers from TOT and MUN. What do you want and expect? Are you choosing them purely for cover or small clean sheet potential and chance of attacking returns? Spurs and United only failed to score in 2 games in the league this season, just so you know.

    Cancelo, Laporte, Stones, Ake, Akanji, Walker, Gomez and Lewis are available. Nobody is untouchable. If you go there, you're kind of asking for it and you don't deserve to crap on Pep later for rotating his squad, when he obviously has the luxury of doing it at the moment.

    1. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      My two cents, but you do you.

    2. Silecro
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Shouldn't they also have another double in gw23? rounded with solid upcoming fixtures after that.

    3. Vlad Tepes
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Agree, thats why I think I will keep Cancelo and just hope for the best, dont think its worth transfering him to Stones etc.

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        The problem with Cancelo is that he has to start to even have a chance of those clean sheets

        I'd advise running far away, to another strong but more nailed defence: Schar, Shaw, Gabriel

        1. Vlad Tepes
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          can only get Gabriel of those and they play Spurs, rather take a gambling and keep Cancelo for this DGW then get rid of later. Not that many options out there for this GW.

    4. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      This. There's a simple use of my 2nd FT: Sanchez to Ederson, to bench Kepa

      But Pep's recent lineup experiments have tanked his side's rhythm and I wonder if I really need to double up (got Akanji) or if I can just go Andreas to Mitoma and bench Schar (risky too). It's been doing my head in because there's quite the chance of a massive point swing: Mitoma multi-return or blank, Ederson CS or double-blank, Schar G or GC, Kepa CS vs Palace. And now added to the pile, but not transfer-based: 40% owned Rashford (C) vs 85% owned (and TC'd by many) Haaland (C) at 2.5m OR

      Annoying because I know how this usually goes

  18. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    On -4 right now, GTG?
    Anything else for a hit?

    Kepa
    Trippier/Shaw/Cucu
    KDB/Rash/Martinelli/Almiron
    Haaland/Kane/Darwin

    Ward/White/Bueno/Andreas

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Good enough.

      1. Atimis
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Cheers

  19. rnrd
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Dalot owners what do you do?
    Being familiar with tight hamstring muyself I find it very odd Dalot being subbed off as a precaution. When you feel you're tight, it means you're on the edge. Ten Hag seems to imply he needs Dalot for the derby but even if Dalot plays in the derby, it clearly isn't the best fixture and I doubt he'll play again again CRY 4 days later.

    Are you playing him or benching?
    My other options are Bueno (WHU) or Andreas (new), both being better options I believe

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      I'd happily play him over a Wolves defender or any attacker facing Newcastle, yes

      Some players felt such tightness and actually continued the match. Some end up worse, and some fully recover (Thiago Silva recently?)

      I wouldn't read too much into it in FPL terms. Take the chance that he starts both

      Casemiro can keep a CS vs Pep's experimental lineups. Not likely, but not close to the impossibility of their last match

  20. davewg59
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    On -4. Salah to KDB for a -8??

    1. JT11fc
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Not for me

  21. CostaCoffee
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Which of Ake, Akanji and Lewis is the best option? I assume they all start this weekend but who has the best chance of having a good run of starts, Ake?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Minefield. Sure you can't get someone else?

      I'm on Akanji because I got him on WC18, but I really wouldn't even go there now

  22. Fodderx4
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    What to do with Foden lads? I got him with unlimited transfers and it's not worked out. I've already used my free transfer on Rash in for Kulu.

    a) Stick with Foden for the double and hope for the best
    b) -4 for Mahrez
    c) -4 for Odegaard
    d) any other hit worth it?

    1. JT11fc
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Id assume hel be on the bench, although Grealish may be dropped after yesterday? Id save

    2. Cojones of Destiny
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      a

  23. JT11fc
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Bench one
    1. Havertz

    2. Odegaard

    3. Rodrigo (Leeds)

    1. Fodderx4
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Definitely not 2, probably 1 for me.

      1. JT11fc
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Thanks

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      1

      1. JT11fc
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Cheers

  24. Konstaapeli
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 26 days ago

    Been out of loop for a while. What's the latest on Kulu?

    1. Mirror Man
        3 years, 26 days ago

        He's training.

      • The Mentaculus
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Just back in training. Alastair Gold reckons he's the most likely injury returnee for Arsenal. Could start with Rich out but wouldn't get too carried away with his xMins. Already own him?

        1. Konstaapeli
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          Yes. Already got him. Have two FT's and trying to figure out what to do.

          Could do Kulu + Cancelo to KDB + Robbo.

      • Fodderx4
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Back in training anyway so should be back in the squad. I sold for Rashford earlier in the week for free.

      • Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        In his house at R'lyeh, he waits dreaming

    2. rowdog24
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Who scored more this GW:

      A) Foden & Cancelo + 8 points
      B) De Bruyne & Lewis

      1. rowdog24
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        *scores

      2. Fodderx4
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        b

      3. Konstaapeli
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        A

      4. Bavarian
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        A

    3. klopptimusprime
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Which Brentford defender

      1. Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Is this a knock knock joke?

        1. klopptimusprime
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          Ahah could be, I'm on WC though

      2. Bavarian
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Pinnock

        1. The Mentaculus
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          Who's there?

      3. Ze_Austin
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        It could have Ben Mee, but I'd just prioritize the top defences instead: Newcastle double-up, Shaw and Arsenal

        1. klopptimusprime
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          Currently on exactly that plus Brentford ahah

    4. Bavarian
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      I think Salah will outscore KDB with a SGW

      1. Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Could do. Fortune favours the brave.

      2. Mirror Man
          3 years, 26 days ago

          I don't.

      3. GE
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        1) Kepa -> Ederson/DDG
        2) Darwin/Mitro -> Martial
        3) Andreas -> Mahrez
        4) Darwin/Mitro -> Kane
        5) Other
        6) Save

        (1FT, 5.4 itb)

        Kepa
        Trippier/Shaw/White
        KDB/Rashford/Martinelli/Almiron
        Haaland/Darwin/Mitro

        Bench: Ward, Andreas, Bueno, Mings

        1. Fulchester's New Centr…
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          3 most exciting (or most frustrating)

        2. Bavarian
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          4 Mitro

      4. it lies in the proles
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Sterling to Mahrez for -4?

        1. Fulchester's New Centr…
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 26 days ago

          Yep

      5. Feed tha Sheep
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 26 days ago

        Are Liverpool expected to double soon? Thought I seen something a few days ago about doubling in GW22/23 but can’t see anything now