Captain Sensible
10 March 2023 489 comments
Hibbo Hibbo
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Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are once again seeing “double” as four teams – Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford, Crystal Palace, and Southampton – play twice in Double Gameweek 27. 

In an open captaincy week, Ivan Toney (£7.8m) and a trio of Brighton assets assume the role of chief protagonists, with alternative options from Palace, Southampton, and a quartet of single fixture heavyweights providing the supporting cast in this edition of the armband argument.

As usual, the Captain Sensible article is here to highlight which assets have the best chance of hauling.

First, we will assess the fallout of the captain poll, before then analysing the best options, the Rate My Team (RMT) points projections and the Premier Fantasy Tools ratings ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 GMT deadline.

THE CAPTAIN POLL

The captain poll has a distinctly Double Gameweek feel, with Brentford’s Ivan Toney topping the charts for the first time this season, backed by a mite over four-tenths of the total votes cast by users at the time of writing.

Providing stiff competition is Brighton’s wing-wizard Kaoru Mitoma (£5.5m) who sits currently in second place, backed by just over one in four of our users. 

Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) occupies third place with 6.41% of the vote, followed by Erling Haaland (£12.2m) and Alexis Mac Allister (£5.4m) further back. 

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK CANDIDATES

IVAN TONEY

Ivan Toney converted from the penalty spot against Fulham on Monday night – his 15th goal of the season – to continue a prolific campaign for the Bees talisman. 

Toney is the third-highest scoring forward in Fantasy – with his tally sitting at 130 points for 2022/23 – and places in the top six for attacking returns (18) this season. 

Notably, Toney has received 26 big chances this season, a total that only Erling Haaland (40) can better. 

However, over the last six matches, Toney’s underlying numbers have underwhelmed, ranking joint-seventh best for goal attempts (19), with his seven shots on target bettered by ten other players. 

In those half-dozen matches, Toney ranks ninth-best in the division for non-penalty involvement (NPxGI, 3.28), a tally bettered by two immediate captaincy rivals – Alexis Mac Allister and Solly March. 

However, set pieces heighten Toney’s appeal, with the penalty supremo converting his 10th Premier League career spot-kick against the Cottagers.

Toney has also registered the most set-piece attempts (23) for Thomas Frank’s side and highlighted his free-kick potential when smashing the woodwork in the 35th minute against Fulham. 

A screenshot of a computer  Description automatically generated

Above: Ivan Toney places second for big chances received (26) this term – a tally bettered by only Erling Haaland (40)

Brentford travel to face an Everton side winless in three Premier League matches, following their initial “new manager bounce” under Sean Dyche. Despite two clean sheets over the last six matches, the Toffees still rank sixth worst for expected goals conceded (xGC, 9.21) over the period. 

Southampton host Thomas Frank’s side in the second fixture of Double Gameweek 27, with the Saints buoyant since the appointment of new manager Ruben Selles. 

The Spaniard has led Southampton to consecutive Premier League wins – over Leicester City and Chelsea – registering two clean sheets in the process. 

However, the Saints have been poor defensively ranking sixth worst for non-penalty expected goals conceded (NPxGC, 9.9) over the last six matches.

KAORU MITOMA/SOLLY MARCH/ALEXIS MAC ALLISTER



Hibbo Author of Captain Sensible. I write Fantasy Premier League articles, focusing on stats and strategy. Four top 10k finishes. 22/23 Rank - 6123.  Follow them on Twitter

489 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Morning/afternoon/evening, all.

    Loving all the weather chat. Reminds me of school and rumours of snow days. Like then, we’re still gonna have to do our homework tho.

  2. Ha.
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Never been so indecisive, but it's decision time.

    Kepa
    White, Shaw, Trippier
    Mac Allister, Saka, Rashford, Gakpo
    Haaland, Kane, Toney

    Ward Akanji, Andreas, Bueno

    I can get this team for -4.

    Or do I WC?

    Raya
    Mee, Zinchenko, Trippier
    Mac Allister, Mitoma, Rashford, Saka
    Haaland, Kane, Toney

    Steele Maddison Chilwell Botman

    Obviously tghe WC is a much better team, but bench looks far good to 'waste'. I'm thinking I therefore get through this week and then WC in 28 (would have XI) and then BB DGW29?

    Thoughts?

    1. Fodderx4
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I was in a simlar position as you and have already hit the WC button but if i was you i would probably hold off and wait to see if any games off due to the weather as this may affect what you do.

      1. Ha.
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Yeh only just hearing about potential weather impacts

        I feel bottom line is I can get a decent team out this week, just not as good as it could be

    2. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Who scores more this gamweek only?

      A. Raya, Mee Mitoma
      B. Kepa, Shaw, Gakpo

    3. Jumpers_for_goal_posts
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I have a similar team to the top one (Mitoma and not Mac, and Tark not Akanji) and I'm undecided about the WC. The bottom team just doesn't seem radically different enough to justify using the WC? (though if you're doing a -4 maybe it is).

      I guess wait to see about weather (if Brighton is off then I'll almost defs just WC next week).

    4. southernpacific
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Wc28 is my plan

  3. Fake Madrid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    How are you dealing with next week's reduced game week.

    How are trying to field 11 players for that week and take a hit or just going with a reduced team.
    Or maybe using a chip.

    I still have Bench boast, free hit and Wild card.

    Probably not use a chip next week.

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Don't think it's worth a FH next week

      Should be able to field XI

    2. Baines on Toast...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I am only going to have three players left so will be using FH

    3. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Have 10 just now. Might do Haaland to Watkins for free to get 11.

    4. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Fielding 9, I think.

  4. _Ninja_
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Who to start this week? I know both are minor doubts but I think both will start fwiw

    A Maddison (CHE)
    B Odegaard (Ful)

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      B

    2. Malinwa
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Any news on Odegaard illness?

  5. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Everybody needs to calm down and Wang Chung tonight!

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      The magical 80s

  6. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    So people are suggesting it is going to snow in Leeds tomorrow and lead to cancellation? Any other game at risk?

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      No snow tomorrow in Leeds just sleet

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      No more snow before the Leeds game according to the BBC forecast. Keep an eye on it as there is some small chance its called off, especially if fans can't travel, but don't let the fearmongers here get to you

      1. Hairy Potter
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        It's still snowing where I am in Leeds, but I get that the forecast is for it to stop. Still think the chance of the match being called off is low.

        1. AC/DC AFC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          yeah it warms up this afternoon and tomorrow so the freeze tonight should have a thaw either side.

          It would be the streets leading to Elland Road that could jeopardise it more than inside the stadium.

        2. The Mentaculus
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks for the updates Hairy

          1. TheTinman
            • 10 Years
            2 years, 9 months ago

            Same here. It's snowing but extremely lightly. It's currently 1 degree, so by midday if it's still snowing like this it will turn to sleet and clear majority of the snow.

            Roads were pretty much fine at 07:30.

            Snow came 1 day too soon for a cancellation. All will be fine

  7. dansmith1985
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Thinking of just doing Tark to Dunk this week leaving me with this team

    Kepa
    Mee Trippier Dunk
    Salah Saka Rashford Odegaard Mitoma
    Haaland Kane

    Ward White Bueno Gnonto

    Does my team look well set for a WC next week?

  8. adidasOriginals
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    I have all 4 chips left, what should I do I can't deal with it!?
    WC
    FH
    TC
    BB

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      below

    2. FISSH
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      wildcard when you think your team isnt good enough
      free hit when you cant field 10+ players, or you see a differential gameweek
      triple captain on a double gameweek
      BB on 29

      Do your own research!

    3. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Morning all - 1FT and 0m ITB. This week thinking Mahrez > Macallister.

      Next week i'll have to use my FH as i have 6 players playing.

      Kepa
      Saliba - Ake - Estupian - Trippier
      Salah - Saka - Rashford
      Toney - Haaland - Darwin

      (Ward) - Mahrez - Andreas - Tark

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        sorry posted incorrectly - but for your post you need to post your team

    4. TheTinman
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      FH this week, BB in 37, WC36, TC 28

      Good luck

  9. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    White Walkers seen in Leeds!

    1. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      That's just Luke Ayling.

      1. The Knights Template
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Well known polar explorer!

  10. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    If Liverpool don't go any further in the Champions League TC on Salah in a double gw.

    Everyone will say BB29 but I'd save the WC for gw30 rather than using 2 chips into one week.

    You're going to have to play them soon.

    You could FH32 into Liverpool players if your squad doesn't have them then, or FH28 into Chelsea is another short term option.

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Which GW do you mean? 34?

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        I hit my TC on Rashford in gw22 so not really thinking about that anymore.

        was just trying to help out above with a reply fail.

    2. rjcv177
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Since the surprises in FA cup i decided on FH28. More games with Higher potential.
      That let me focus my team on 27/29 and go big on Chelsea plus Kane and better arsenal

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        yeah

        I was on FH28 but it's really just Chelsea with the fixture edge and unless everyone piles back into Liverpool they have the fixture in FH32.

        I guess many will save it and splurge into a FH38 which is decent too.

  11. JabbaWookiee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Benching headache! Who to drop from the front 8? Just gonna list them all.

    Salah - Saka - Mitoma - Mac Allister - Rashford
    Haaland - Kane - Toney

    1. Sailboats
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I'd drop Kane

    2. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Very tough, probably Saka or Kane but could easily backfire.

      1. JabbaWookiee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Yeah this is horrible. Still have the bench boost but not really interested in using that for single gameweekers. I'm currently benching Saka purely due to the fixture. Haaland's form is a worry especially away though. And Spurs are so diabolical they are ruining Kane's fixture-proofness, plus Forest are no pushovers.

        Someone is gonna blank. Question is who?

        1. Flying Dutchman
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          I'd bench Salah

          1. JabbaWookiee
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 9 months ago

            A resurgent Liverpool against Bournemouth though? Not sure.

    3. ChuckyPancamo
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I'll have the exact same front 8 (when/if I get Mac Allister). Saka or Kane for me. I'm leaning towards Kane.

      1. JabbaWookiee
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Is it between him and March? Proper coin toss situation if so.

    4. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Kane

  12. Stranger Mings
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    IF Leeds v BRI is OFF on a WC is mitoma & mac to salah & Maddy the way to go?

    1. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      It wont be off. Snow has stopped in Leeds and no more is expected.

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Yeh seen weather forecast - just preparing an option b!!

    2. Sailboats
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      If that game is off, I'd rather have Mitoma and Salah.

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Was thinking Maddy as plays GW28

    3. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I would still keep one BHA mid at least even if called off

  13. Sailboats
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Guys, Andreas or White first on the bench? Andreas right?

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Yes

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      yes

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      White

  14. FISSH
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Odegaard > Mac Allister -4?

    Will be WC next week anyway

    1. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I was thinking of doing it for free but not sure.

      1. FISSH
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        that yellow flag tempting me haha

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah I think I would after the illness reports, especially since it sounds like it was a late call so no guarantees he's back for Sunday

    3. Shark Team
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      He had sore throat I read so I think Ode is fine for Sunday.
      I’m also contemplating whether to make the move or not but this will mean not playing Ode vs CRY(H) which can backfire

      1. Shark Team
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        You are gonna WC, so I’d make the move

  15. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Inuit buying property in Leeds, skewering market!

    1. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      As a Geordie living in Leeds, I'd say it's long sleeve weather rather than t-shirt today.

      1. The Knights Template
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Someone said they saw a polar bear in Leeds, perhaps high on cocaine.

        1. The Mentaculus
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          😆

        2. The Mentaculus
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          Probably just a friend of mine, no reason to panic

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Nanook (TC)

  16. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Morning all - 1FT and 0m ITB. This week thinking Mahrez > Macallister.

    Next week i'll have to use my FH as i have 6 players playing.

    Kepa
    Saliba - Ake - Estupian - Trippier
    Salah - Saka - Rashford
    Toney - Haaland - Darwin

    (Ward) - Mahrez - Andreas - Tark

    1. Tshelby
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Sounds good, who are you benching for MacA?

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Ake probably

        1. Bobby_Baggio
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          or maybe saliba as i can see fulham scoring

    2. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Yup Mac or Mitoma. Bench Saliba or Ake.

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers was thinking same

  17. Friday's Press Conference Times
    Skonto Rigga
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    8.30am - De Zerbi
    10am - Howe
    12pm - Klopp
    1pm - Lopetegui, O'Neil, Vieira
    1.30pm - Potter, Silva, Guardiola, Conte, Selles
    2.15pm - Emery

    Arteta, ten Hag and Moyes all did their GW27 press conferences after their respective European fixtures last night, the quotes from which will hopefully be released from embargo today.

    The other five managers faced the media yesterday: https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2023/03/09/fpl-gameweek-27-team-news-brentford-injury-news-more/

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Cheers Neale.

      De Zerbi done already! Anyone have a link to it? Can't find it

      1. Skonto Rigga
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Here we go!

        https://www.sussexlive.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/zerbi-brighton-leeds-crystal-palace-8236038

        Colwill and March "on the list". Hopefully the squad list and not the injury variety 😀

        Lamptey a doubt, Moder and Lallana out.

        Quotes on Sanchez/Steele here:

        https://www.sussexexpress.co.uk/sport/football/brighton-and-hove-albion/roberto-de-zerbi-discusses-goalkeeping-dilemma-ahead-of-leeds-game-4058568

        Putting these in an article shortly!

        1. The Mentaculus
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          Brilliant, thanks. Noticed March took a couple knocks last game so wanted to check up on that. Guess being "on the list" is probably ok

        2. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks a lot!

  18. Rhodes your boat
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Play

    A) martinelli (ful)
    B) maddison (CHE)

    1. CheesyGonzalez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      A

  19. Tshelby
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    3.1 itb

    Anything worth a hit?

    Kepa, Ward
    Trippier, tarkowski, Gabriel, Shaw, Estu
    Rash, Bruno, Mitoma, Saka, Odegaard
    Toney, Haaland, Darwin

    Thinking about playing my wc next week

    1. CheesyGonzalez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I'd personally take tarkowski out for a brighton or brentford defender

      1. Tshelby
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        For a hit? And bench one of shaw or Gabriel than?

  20. niaz1982
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    All set for this week with below, will have 2FT for next week & £1.9ITB, what are the best changes with DGW29 to think about?

    Raya
    Trippier Estupinan Mee
    Saka March Macallister Rashford
    Kane Toney Haaland

    Subs: Ward, Gabriel, James, Martinelli

    Current GW28 only allows for 8 playing at the minute.
    Not sure whether better to bring in Lei or Villa as a bit meh for GW28/29
    THoughts?

  21. Johnny too hotty
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    does anyone think liverpool game will be postponed? Im in a LMS and need to plan 🙂

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      In Bournemouth? Due to drizzle? No

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        sand whipped up the cliffs into their eyes?

  22. Millie7
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Morning all!
    I'm Wildcarding next week.

    Am I on the right track?

    Kepa
    White Estupinan Trippier
    Saka Rashford Mitoma KDB
    Haaland Toney Darwin

    Ward Odegaard Tark Patterson

    A) White > Mee
    B) White + KDB > Mee + Mac/March -4

  23. Ha.
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Who scores more this gameweek only?

    A. Raya, Mee, Mitoma
    B. Kepa, Shaw, Gakpo

  24. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Northern lights visible from Elland Road!

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      Diamond Lights audible too.

  25. Malinwa
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Play one:

    A) Odegaard (FUL)
    B) Maddison (CHE)

    1. Millie7
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      a

    2. The Mighty Whites
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      A

  26. Stamford B
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Do you think that quote about Solly March means he’s out?

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      I'm pretty sure last week he said Estupinan & March were "on the list" meaning in the matchday squad, and they started

    2. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      The article clarifies the manager meant on the list for selection.

  27. Millie7
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Ode

  28. Stamford B
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    "Solly March and Levi Colwill are on the list for tomorrow, Tariq [Lamptey] I don't know.

    "I want to see how Levi is this morning before making a final decision on the squad."

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      S'oll good, man.

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      De Zerbi goes Bananas

      1. Stamford B
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks Shakey

  29. The Mighty Whites
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    1FT, 2.7 ITB, G2G?

    Raya
    Trippier/Estupinan/Henry
    Saka/Rashford/Mitoma/March
    Haaland/Kane/Toney (C)

    Subs: Kepa/Odegaard/Botman/Zinchenko

    1. Millie7
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      yep

  30. Digital-Real
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 9 months ago

    Your score prediction for:
    Bournemouth vs Liverpool

    1. The Mighty Whites
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      0-3

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      2-5

    3. Flying Dutchman
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      1-1

    4. Paqueta Rice
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 9 months ago

      7-0