The FPL Watchlist: Palace + City players up, Chilwell down

The Watchlist takes a medium-term look at the more desirable Fantasy Premier League (FPL) transfer targets, rather than concentrating on just the upcoming Gameweek as the Scout Picks does.

We’ve recently had our weekly refresh, with the main changes explained below.

ABOUT THE WATCHLIST

We typically concentrate on a four-to-six-Gameweek lookahead when compiling the Watchlist but it’d be remiss not to be thinking about what lies just beyond that hill, as Newcastle United, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs still have at least one more Double Gameweek to come after Gameweek 34.

Players are selected and ranked according to factors such as form, club injuries, forthcoming fixtures, Rate My Team’s points projections and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.

Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has climbed or fallen in our reckoning since the previous update or if they are a new entry into the tables.

We typically toe the line with FPL’s definition of ‘form’ (average points accrued in matches played over the last 30 days) but here we’ve incorporated Gameweek 27 onwards to make up for the two weeks of non-action over the international break.

The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL GOALKEEPERS

It’s important to acknowledge from the start that each individual manager’s Watchlist may be different from someone else’s and indeed ours. For example, FPL bosses playing a Free Hit in Gameweek 32 will likely be looking at different transfer targets to those who are negotiating the upcoming blank for Chelsea, Brighton and the two Manchester clubs without a chip.

So there’s a ‘something for everyone’ approach to this feature, at least until Gameweek 32 is out of the way.

In second and third here are goalkeepers who ‘double’, don’t blank and have decent remaining individual fixtures in the shape of premium pair Alisson (£5.4m) and Nick Pope (£5.4m). The Brazilian, who has made light of the abject defence in front of him to sit joint-second in the FPL goalkeeper standings, is the highest projected points scorer in his position in the run-in, with five games at fortress Anfield and four trips to bottom-half clubs still to come.

The custodians of City and United are positioned just behind Alisson and Pope: David de Gea (£5.0m) and Ederson (£5.4m) both have two Double Gameweeks to come and will likely rise further up the standings once their Blank Gameweek is out of the way but, as mentioned above, that’s less of an issue for Gameweek 32 Free Hitters.

Ahead of them all, however, is Jason Steele (£3.9m). Even factoring in the upcoming blank for Albion, you’ll get more fixtures and Double Gameweeks out of the Seagulls than any other side:

At least £1.1m cheaper than any other goalkeeper we’ve already mentioned, Steele has also averaged more points per match (4.7) than any other current first-choice number one. Despite the gung-ho reputation, Brighton are a creditable fourth for fewest expected goals conceded (xGC) since Roberto De Zerbi took over.

Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.7m) just about stays in view: Chelsea do have a Double Gameweek still to come but it will involve trips to the two Manchester clubs, while there are clashes with Brighton, Newcastle and Arsenal on either side. Given Kepa’s chequered past with Frank Lampard, there’ll be a concern about a demotion at some point, too.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL DEFENDERS

Chelsea’s iffy schedule also costs Ben Chilwell (£6.0m) a couple of places, although his red card in Wednesday’s defeat to Real Madrid is likely good news for his game-time in Gameweek 31 as he might otherwise have been preserved for Tuesday’s return leg.

There’s still a heck of an FPL asset in there, as Chilwell was top among defenders for shots, chances created and expected goal involvement (xGI) during his unbroken run of starts from Gameweeks 24-29 – just don’t count on many clean sheets with the fixtures to come.

The defenders’ Watchlist has a similar feel to the goalkeeper version, with non-blanking doublers Kieran Trippier (£6.2m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) top of the pops and Gameweek 32 blankers Ruben Dias (£6.0m) and Pervis Estupinan (£4.8m) waiting in the wings for their time in the sun in Gameweeks 34-38.

Dias seems to have become the token mainstay of Pep Guardiola’s defence, shaking off his mid-season injury woes to start the last eight Premier League matches in a row. The deeper City get into the FA Cup and Champions League, the more the concern about the odd spot of rotation, but let’s not forget that the destiny of the league title is also now in the reigning champions’ hands following Arsenal’s draw at Liverpool.

Luke Shaw (£5.1m) remains on the periphery following Erik ten Hag’s declaration that he expects the defender back “at short notice”. Again, he’ll surge up the standings once he’s back to fitness and United’s Gameweek 32 blank is over and done with.

The one new entry is Joachim Andersen (£4.5m). There’s no Palace representation on our goalkeeping list due to Vicente Guaita (£4.4m) potentially returning to challenge Sam Johnstone (£4.4m) soon, but there are no such worries about the heart of the defence.

Joint-ninth among defenders for shots in the box this season, Andersen is part of a backline that boasts the second-best xGC in the last six matches. The upcoming fixtures are excellent, too, with the Eagles’ only remaining opponents sitting any higher than 10th in the table being a far-from-formidable Tottenham Hotspur.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL MIDFIELDERS

Again, we reiterate the earlier caveat about diverging chip strategies and the different transfer targets that accompany each approach.

Here in this strategy-neutral zone we’ve placed slightly more weight on the short term (as we tend to do in this article), so Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) and the two Arsenal representatives rank higher than the Gameweek 32 blankers from Brighton, Man City and Man Utd.

Jack Grealish (£7.1m) gets the nod after 11 straight league starts for the Citizens and as many post-restart attacking returns; only the Arsenal pair featured above and the injured Marcus Rashford (£7.2m) can better that goals/assists tally among midfielders.

Kevin De Bruyne (£12.1m) is also on the fringes of re-entering the Watchlist but after being withdrawn in midweek for “tactical reasons” minutes after being crocked, we’ll hang fire on the offchance that there’s any Gameweek 31 game-time doubt.

Bruno Fernandes (£9.6m) falls slightly, even though the return of Casemiro (£4.9m) and Christian Eriksen (£6.2m) raises hope that he’ll be back in his usual number 10 role soon. He was still playing deep alongside Casemiro against Sevilla on Thursday, while there’ll be concern that he’s actually performed well in this quarter-back role, impressing Erik ten Hag sufficiently enough that the United head coach might consider it a viable tactic going forward. The fact that Marcel Sabitzer (£4.7m) is thriving in the more advanced midfield position is also worthy of note.

• READ MORE: Who are the best Rashford replacements in FPL?
• READ MORE: Eze v Olise: Who is the best Palace midfield pick in FPL?

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL FORWARDS

There’s not much movement in the forwards’ list, with Erling Haaland (£12.2m) set for a climb back to top spot once Blank Gameweek 32 is out of the way.

Gabriel Jesus (£8.1m) nudges up the standings despite Arsenal’s lack of a double, with three goals in two starts since his return from injury. The Gunners being out of Europe and the domestic cup competitions is in their favour from an FPL perspective, while Jesus is second only to Haaland for minutes per xG among forwards this season.

With Luis Diaz (£7.8m) potentially set to return to the Liverpool matchday squad on Monday night to give Jurgen Klopp a full complement of six fit attackers, there’s too much game-time risk for Darwin Nunez (£8.7m) to elevate him any higher than where he is now.