In our second Selection Guide, we focus on the strategies that can be applied when mulling over defensive options for our 15-man squads. In recent seasons we’ve seen these players slip further down our list of priorities, overshadowed by a string of powerful midfielders and strikers who command high fees and our full attention.
Significantly there was just one defender in last season’s top 20 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) rankings – United’s Patrice Evra came in 14th, with Vincent Kompany next in 21st place. Little wonder, then, that we shelve our defensive planning and ferret away funds reserved for heavy investment in midfield and attack.
In many ways, the tide has turned against defenders due to the failure of the top bracket players. The rankings clearly reveal that the best defenders have struggled to keep pace with attacking heavy-hitters.
So why have so many of the top bracket defenders been failing us?
Clean sheets are, of course, the main source of income from our defenders and in recent seasons we’ve seen the numbers in decline. Certainly outside of the ranks of United and City, we’ve struggled to find regular returns. The likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs have failed to deliver on lofty price tags, while lower down the brackets, Everton, Villa and Fulham have stuttered and suffered from inconsistency.
Added to this we’ve seen defenders who have previously supplemented clean sheet returns with goals and assists – the likes of Leighton Baines, Robert Huth and Brede Hangeland, for example – suddenly reduce their output. With last season’s FPL bonus point system also favouring attacking players, defenders have suffered a malaise that has generally seen Fantasy managers begin to lose faith and shy away from significant investment.
Unexpected packages have at least come to the rescue – Newcastle and Swansea emerged last season and we saw some strong value delivered by the likes of Danny Simpson, with Michel Vorm overshadowing the Fantasy scoring of the cheap defenders in front of him.
However, the emergence of such talent further down the price bracket has only helped to highlight the failure of the heavy-hitters by narrowing the gap between them and the mid-price, pushing us towards cheaper options who offer strong value.
In truth, it’s difficult to argue against this with any real conviction. For that strategy to be found out, we’d have to see the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea rejuvenated as defensive powers, with Baines reaching 10+ assists and Thomas Vermaelen maintaining the impressive goal rate we saw on his return from injury last season. That could all happen, of course, it’s just few of us will be banking on it right now, with the likes of Gareth Bale and Wayne Rooney glittering so brightly.
So let’s discuss the likely strategies and tactics to apply when selecting our defences, starting with the key factor – budget.
Deciding on Spend
Before you can really start adding the budget and mid-price pebbles, it’s wise to put your defensive rocks in place. Whilst heavy-hitters are out of fashion, few Fantasy managers will go into the season without at least one player in their backline with good potential for clean sheet returns.
The popular thinking will be that both the United and City defences require covering, presuming that they will, once again, offer the most assured quota of returns. With Chelsea’s double Gameweek on offer, our initial thoughts here are also skewed somewhat, however; despite the Blues’ relatively poor showing of 10 clean sheets last season, Roberto Di Matteo’s backline will receive heavy initial investment.
That early interest in Chelsea is likely to mean less money going the way of the United backline – at least initially. As discussed in our Goalkeeping Selection guide, David De Gea enters the equation here, thanks in the main to his 6.0 valuation in the FPL but also because there is a general lack of certainty elsewhere in the United back four. Nemanja Vidic remains a doubt for the kick-off, leaving just Patrice Evra as a nailed-on option. A current ownership of 9.9% is perhaps surprising for a player who topped his position rankings last season but indicative of the caution shown when approaching the United defence – a trip to Goodison on the opening day is hardly doing them any favours, either.
As for City, Vincent Kompany is the dominant force and is currently the highest owned defender in the FPL. Arguably both Joleon Lescott and Gael Clichy have merits at 0.5 and 1.0 cheaper respectively, although Clichy could come under threat from Aleksandar Kolarov should Roberto Mancini stay true to his intentions of utilising a 3-5-2 on occasion next term.
Those factors considered, it’s likely that we’re looking at three spots left in the defence to fill – maybe even four for those opting to go with De Gea. So the next consideration is whether to scour the mid-price, or delve straight into the budget bracket to fill the spots.
For many, that decision will rest on the weight of investment elsewhere in the squad. Realistically, the three to four spare slots in defence will be filled once the key attacking assets are in place. The remaining budget will then dictate the pool in which you’re searching.
You also have to consider your chosen formation at this point. You’ll want to avoid having mid-price players on the bench, regardless of their position, so if you’re investing heavily in attack or midfield, without a budget option in either area, it’s likely you are forcing yourself into a formation that regularly fields just three defenders. In which case, you’ll want at least two defenders in the budget bracket (4.0 – 4.5).
Spending to Find the Differential
Should that be the case, though? Arguably there are options in the mid-price that could possibly override some attacking choices and push the balance back towards four in defence.
The aforementioned Huth and Hangeland are snuggled in the mid-price bracket with the potential to outscore their valuations should the goals and bonus arrive. While there are doubts that Michael Laudrup can instill the same defensive resolve at Swansea, there’s no escaping the fact that the likes of Angel Rangel and Ashley Williams have strong fixtures to open the season.
In the heavy-hitter bracket, meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, Baines and Vermaelen stand out as defenders who, while unlikely to get close to City and United’s defensive points, could easily compensate for this with strong attacking returns. These two are ready-made differentials who will likely set your squad apart from your rivals. Unless you’re willing to back them ahead of a City defender, their acquisition is likely to scupper that Wayne Rooney/Sergio Aguero combo up front, or see you pack the midfield with budget options.
The key strength or, indeed, weakness of opting for defenders with attacking potential is that you can, to some extent, dispose of fixture analysis. If you pick Vermaelen and Baines, they surely start for you week in, week out. To a certain extent the same can be said for options like Huth and Terry; regardless of their opponents, they’ll be in your lineup in anticipation of goals papering over the cracks.
By spending more in defence, then, you’ll be narrowing your attacking options but reducing the risk of having to rely on mid-price or budget defenders. There is, however, a potential solution that can manage that risk, although it requires some leg work…
Rotating To Fixtures
Rotation to fixture difficulty, or at least home matches, certainly takes some hands-on management and analysis but is worth exploring if you’re intent on a thrifty backline.
The idea is that you find two or three defenders who demand paltry fees but offer a regular configuration of strong or home fixtures, allowing you to rotate them alongside a couple of defensive heavy hitters.
There are various approaches to this – one method is to first look for teams who alternate their fixtures home and away, or at least over a long spell of Gameweeks. The danger here is that, by linking two teams in this way, you can end up selecting two defences due to convenience of their rotating fixtures, rather than their form or the difficulty of their forthcoming opponents. Personally, I have a two-step tactic that relies mainly on analysis of the difficulty of a short period of fixtures.
The obvious first move is to use the Season Ticker to identify strong defences for the coming Gameweeks. The Next Six Ticker in the side bar quickly reveals that Swansea and West Ham have favourable fixtures in the first six and, while they don’t rotate home and away, both offer a solid starting point in the mid-price and budget bracket. Add the expected Man City defender to this and you can start to build a picture of your likely defensive selections for the first six weeks.
My next step, once I have three teams in place, is to identify the Gameweeks in which these three defences face tougher opponents or away matches. The premise being that, in these Gameweeks, you may elect to call on your spare, and preferably cheaper defenders, to step in from the bench.
As an example, our existing defensive lineup of West Ham, Swansea and City gives us no home defenders in Gameweeks 4 and 6. While the fixtures aren’t awful, we obviously want to ship in two defenders who can offer us home games and preferably favourable fixtures in these Gameweeks.
Another glance at the ticker reveals that, in the mid-price/budget bracket, both Norwich and Villa have home games in those Gameweeks, thus they stand out as options to complete our defensive five. We may only use their budget defenders in two of the six Gameweeks, but that’s all we require when playing three at the back.
Of course, this is just one of many configurations. With the double Gameweek, many will already be planning to go in with Chelsea and Reading defenders. Again though, the above principle can be applied. Plan ahead, but not too far, identify the weak points and then find the defences who can fill those gaps.
This kind of process is so much easier when using our Members Ticker and particularly the Clean Sheet filter. Using this you can drag rows around and quickly find combinations that provide at least three favourable fixtures from your five every Gameweek.
Longer term, you can then start planning your transfers alongside these steps. While you’ll more than likely have higher priorities to address, the hope is that, by Gameweek 7, your squad will have some stability, allowing you to use your transfer to rotate budget defenders in and out according to your fixture planning.
You should also be quick to exploit opportunities that emerge as the season unfolds, like that 4.0 full-back who suddenly cements a starting role, or the United or Chelsea defender that benefits from an injury to present a cheaper route to clean sheets. Both could be short-term, but, for that very reason, you’ll want the flexibility to react quickly.
The ability to keep your defence agile and to swoop on opportunities is key, which is why planning a complete defensive unit beyond the first 10 Gameweeks, particularly one governed by rotation, can be folly. Such plans can be torn up by a twist of events that changes the complexion of defensive selection. I like to narrow the window of analysis, choose my key, essential targets and then identify the cheap options that combine with them best. Then it’s about form, fixtures and the opportunity to cash in on the bargains that emerge.
