The FPL Watchlist: James returns, Leno up, Palace drop

With the international break now over, we’ve updated The Watchlist for Gameweek 13 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) and beyond.

It’s a tentative refresh, however, with myriad injury flags to clear up in the pre-match press conferences on Thursday and Friday.

Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m), for instance, will be removed if David Moyes rules the winger-turned-striker out for any significant length of time this week.

If you’re new to this article series, we attempt to pick out the stand-out FPL picks over the medium term.

This is in contrast to the Scout Picks, which deals only in the upcoming Gameweek.

MORE ABOUT THE WATCHLIST

We rank players according to factors such as club injuries, form (last four Gameweeks), underlying numbers, forthcoming fixtures, Rate My Team’s points projections and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.

Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has increased in appeal or fallen in our reckoning since the previous Gameweek or if they are a new entry into the tables.

The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:

THE WATCHLIST: GOALKEEPERS

Bernd Leno (£4.7m) is the biggest riser this time, with Fulham about to embark on a favourable four-match run at Craven Cottage. No one higher than ninth in the Premier League table visits west London before New Year’s Eve.

The Cottagers only have two away trips before Christmas, tricky ones at Liverpool and Newcastle United. But the Boxing Day game at Bournemouth, just outside of this six-week lookahead, prolongs the favourable spell.

There are also three successive meetings with sides sitting 16th or below from Gameweeks 22-24.

Marco Silva’s side are no great shakes defensively, ranked 15th for expected goals conceded (xGC). But in Leno, they boast last season’s biggest xG-defyer. While he’s not quite hitting those heights this time around, he’s still racking up the saves to supplement – or compensate for the loss of – clean sheets.

Only Sheffield United’s Wes Foderingham (£4.5m) has made more stops than Leno this season.

With the Cottagers being quite a low-scoring team, there are few of Leno’s attacking team-mates threatening to enter the bonus points mix in most games – another boost to the German’s bonus points potential.

Sam Johnstone (£4.6m) drops down our rankings: while there are two excellent short-term fixtures approaching against newly promoted sides, he faces seven of the league’s ten highest scorers from Gameweeks 14-21.

We’re persevering with Alphonse Areola (£4.3m) for now: he’s got four of the Premier League’s seven lowest-scoring sides coming up before Christmas.

THE WATCHLIST: DEFENDERS

To paraphrase President George W. Bush: “Fool me once, shame on you… if you don’t pick Reece James, you can’t get fooled again.”

There’s such a paucity of attractive defenders right that we’re lured to the rocks again by the modern-day Darren Anderton.

Arsenal, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur, sides who have provided some of the most popular FPL defenders of the campaign, have some iffy short-term fixtures – and a blank, in City’s case – coming up before Christmas.

Chelsea’s next two matches aren’t ideal either but there are some favourable games thereafter, and we’re including a trip to Manchester United in that. The Red Devils have scored just 13 goals in 12 Premier League matches this season, and just two in the four fixtures they’ve played against teams in the top half.

Shut-out potential isn’t all it’s cracked up to be anyway in 2023/24, with all that added time contributing to a modern-day low for clean sheets. More and more we’re looking to the attacking credentials of our Watchlist candidates.

James has only started three Premier League matches this season, coming on as a substitute in a further two, but has already created five ‘big’ chances – that’s a tally that only Kieran Trippier (£7.0m) can beat amongst FPL defenders.

A minutes-per-shot average of 52.4 is also superior to virtually every other FPL defender this season.

We know the risks (the injury history, plus a rest in Gameweek 19 wouldn’t be a shock) but it’s not as if there are too many other candidates putting their hands up right now.

Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.5m) is one leftfield alternative. Right off the bat, we’ll acknowledge that he’s on four bookings, so just one away from a ban.

But Wolves are top of our ticker from Gameweek 13-20, facing just one of the top eight – Arsenal – in that spell.

Used as a left wing-back or even a left winger by Gary O’Neil from Gameweek 7 onwards, he’s joint-fourth for shots (seven) and joint-seventh for chances created (seven) among FPL defenders over that time.

Joachim Andersen (£5.1m) meanwhile falls for the same reason as Johnstone but we’re holding firm on Ben White (£5.8m) until we hear more about his fitness. Kostas Tsimikas (£4.7m) is also a non-mover after his Gameweek 12 heroics, too, even if that rotation risk tag is still very much warranted.

With news awaited on Sven Botman (£4.6m), we again resist the urge to include Jamaal Lascelles (£4.1m) here – so Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.0m) remains our go-to bargain-buy for now, with two or three (Forest, Burnley… Man Utd?) decent clean sheet opportunities in the next five Gameweeks. He, too, is walking the suspension tightrope, however.

THE WATCHLIST: MIDFIELDERS

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