With the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 3 deadline just two days away, we’ll be hearing from our panel of guest writers and pundits.
Here, eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, taking questions on ‘DefCon’, whether the premium picks are worth the cash and the best replacements for Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) and Cole Palmer (£10.5m).
You can read his Gameweek 3 team reveal here.
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Q: Are premium options worth the money with both Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland looking less dangerous?
Q. How long until the penny drops? Erling Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Cole Palmer have returned just 11 attacking returns since Gameweek 30. Time to truly spread the funds? So many split captaincy weeks make this more viable.
(via Pedersen and @FPL_here_fishy)
A: I think we must start this article with a reminder, and this will be relevant to every question here: it’s only been two Gameweeks. We have only seen 180 minutes of football from Premier League sides. Players/teams are rusty, formations/systems are gelling, and it will be a while before we see the cream rise to the top.
That being said, let’s ask ourselves: what has changed with Erling Haaland (£14.1m) and Mohamed Salah (£14.5m) to make them worse picks than last year?
With Salah, I think Liverpool have made a conscious effort to future-proof themselves for life without the Egyptian. The signings of Florian Wirtz (£8.4m) and Hugo Ekitike (£8.7m), and their intent to sign Alexander Isak (£10.4m, whether they are successful or not remains to be seen), are a clear signal of that.
Arne Slot built his team to feed Salah last season and from the opening two weeks, that does not seem to be the case: the Egyptian registered a total of 0.51 xGI over the two matches. I think the new 4-2-3-1 shape isn’t as reliant on him, while the lack of Trent Alexander-Arnold on that side also has a detrimental effect and the relationship with Ekitike just isn’t there yet. Both of Salah’s returns have come when the striker wasn’t on the pitch.
So yes, perhaps Salah is a worse asset than last season, but with Gameweeks 4 and 5 coming up, when he is a standout captain choice, he is worth sticking with. This could change post-transfer window if Isak joins; we might see the goal contributions spread out a bit more. We still need to give it more time, though.
Haaland had a poor season by his standards but was still posting decent xG numbers and I think, unlike Salah, I only expect Haaland’s goal share to go up this season. I look around the City team and I do not see many other goal scorers. Tijjani Reijnders (£5.7m) will chip in, of course, but their wingers and midfielders are more creators. We have already seen the influence of Pep Lijnders in their first two matches; City’s press is much more aggressive, they’re playing higher up the pitch and there is more transitional play, which suits Haaland’s strengths. We are perhaps overreacting to a blank against Spurs and I am confident Haaland remains a top asset.
In general, I would say if captaincy was not a consideration in FPL, there would be a case for going without either of Haaland or Salah and spreading the funds around. But as it stands, we need a captain every week and with Cole Palmer (£10.5m) and Bukayo Saka’s (£10.0m) fitness doubtful, it just makes sense to own one of these ultra-premiums right now.
Q: With defensive contributions, could 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 be the play moving forward, or is it too soon to tell?
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