Illness postponed Sunday’s regular rinse through the members area stats for the Gameweek but the unfortunate delay has at least allowed us to bring proceedings to a close with a data blast. While the likes of Carlos Tevez and Luis Suarez understandably dominated the ICT Index rankings, here’s a look under the hood at some of the other protagonists from a Gameweek brimming with attacking verve…
Cannot wait for the next GW.
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Me too. Had a dreadful week but I have 10 homers this week.
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Same here. Odd weeks = good scores. Even weeks = abysmal scores!
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Garrido (c)
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Many people on my league scored well because of City players, but the rest of their squads arent great. Can't wait for GW13 and back to normal.
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Awful week,
Bale > caz or is it too knee jerk?Open Controls
When can we expect Facer's article on Mark's fitness?
Open ControlsWhat happened to Mark?
Open ControlsA non-specific illness - he claims to be fit but I'd like Facer's take on things.
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Mark is fit, we can expect him to keep posting on FFS, no worry 😉 😀
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Mark ➡ Paul for a hit?
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Dodgy seafood. Punished at both ends. Severely. I'll say no more.
Open ControlsThanks, no need to get more graphic than that (although I await Giggs Boson with an apt gif...)
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So where’s everyone at in UCL Fantasy? I'm at 21,820 with 222 points
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Is it worth having RVP and Rooney for the next 3 GWs?
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great grav katie 😛
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I think it would be a lovely gamble if there weren't any other strikers performing. Right now, there are just soooo many options.
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Serious amount of your budget tied up in one team, could pay off though.
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I have them. I've had for the last 2 and (obviously) regretted it, but the next 3 are tasty tasty fixtures.
Open ControlsTaraabt (c)
😎Open ControlsI'm going to start having some more fun soon.
Open ControlsYou've got a pretty impressive ranking to protect though. But aye, I enjoy the big gambles, it's only a game at the end of the day.
Open ControlsI did gamble a little this week with Tevez Santi -> Suarez Theo
Did not exactly pay off, but i am quietly confident about this move in the long run.Open Controls
+1 to their comments
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Hey folks
I have 2 FT and £1.5m in the bank.
Foster, Begovic
Baines, Davies, Demel, Cuellar, Gorkks
Nolan, Michu, Bale, Fellaini, Sterling
Ba, RVP, Aguero
Pick one of these:
1. Foster and Davies out for Ruddy and Jose Enrique.
2. Nolan and Aguero out for Walcott and Tevez.
3. Foster to Ruddy to free up funds and save FT.
Thoughts please?!
Thank youOpen Controls
Repost (because I really do want to keep thrashing on about this. Please ignore if you've made your mind up or don't want to get involved)
On Baines. Can we all agree that his FPL returns in the last 6 weeks or so have not justified his price? The question for me is whether there is an upturn round the corner.
I’m well aware of rate at which he creates possibilities. I’m also aware of the rate at which his teammates fail to convert them.
The question for me is whether there is any reason to think that having failed to convert his chances through their sunny fixtures, will they suddenly start converting them when the fixtures turn nasty.
Has it been just bad luck that he isn’t scoring much? Or is there some underlying reason and will that reason change in the near future?Open Controls😀 I was rather hoping for a bit more discussion than that 😀
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Given their fixtures, no, imo. (After this week that is)
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I think there is an element of bad luck involved in Baines points lately but how long is he gonna stay unlucky? I`ve had enough and punted him for Clichy this week. Could backfire badly but when you've had enough you've had enough i suppose.
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Baines, a must have player, never bench never captain, and never know when he explodes....if you switch him you'll regret, if you have him you'll regret.....so better not have him in the starting GW ` and if you have him already then better stick with him.
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I'm thinking that Fellaini at 7.7 is enough Everton coverage. He seems to be the main attacking threat atm, and Everton just cant keep clean sheets which is fine for a normal priced defender, but for 7 mil I want clean sheets AND attacking returns.
Hes out after Norwich for me, barring an incredible return at the weekend. Will switch him and Morrison out for Enrique and Fellaini.Open Controls
Last 6 weeks hav not justified, clearly, but he's been the best offensive defender so far, main reason he hasn't scored points is, as u said, the lack of his team-mates' ability to convert. I'm not too sure bout ur question but i know they'll start converting soon(mainly Fellaini) and i'm hoping that'll happen so i can get a price rise.
Open ControlsI think with Baines, you never know when his returns will come. One has to be patient. If you manage to keep him throughout the season, he will no doubt be in the top 2-3 defenders overall.
Open Controls...but the money from Baines invested elsewhere could be enough to catch a couple of other players on hot form, who might not have been affordable otherwise and could potentially return more points. This is my take on the situation.
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Hard to know either way but if you throw enough crap at the wall some of it is going to stick. I think its the same as suarez a few weeks ago, lots of shots in his case rather than opportunities created but those that kept faith have seen it pay off.
*I may have told you this last time around, can't remember. Sorry if so 🙂Open Controls
I think that he has stats on his side and you have to think that he is gonna be worth his value when he inevitable has a 'big' game. And it is a inevitability.
I think that for me too it hard to have him not do much knowing that those funds could be put toward changing Michu for silva for example. That said I'm currently sticking.Open ControlsI haven't watched the games, does anyone know how many of the chances he's been creating have actually been good chances and how many are just technically chances but realistically wouldn't be expected to result in goals?
Open ControlsBaines never has a bad game in my opinion. That's why he has this allure. But it's not enough for me. Plenty of players to be owned and Baines is bringing us all down.
Open ControlsNot so much questioning the level of his performances, just wondering whether his stats are skewed by 'non-genuine' chances i.e. do corners which fail to beat the first man or 6 yard square passes 35 yards out count towards the 'chances created' stats?
Open ControlsI think you could say Baines is pretty much playing as Shorey is...with more skill and talent. A lot goes through the left back and it's the same with Reading. I just don't know if I want to have Baines when I can have cheaper alternatives that will get me that extra oomph in midfield/attack.
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+100000
I love Roscola, he is my most favourite poster. Besides the one of Garrido I keep by my bed.
Baines out to afford Silva/AgueroOpen ControlsI'm not sure Roscola was actually prescribing removing Baines from your team 🙂
Open ControlsI know but there's a lot of people with phobias about even any mention of the Baines out campaign.
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:def leppard:
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My team is full of past knee jerks. Need some help please guys.
Begovic (McCarthy)
Simpson Cameron Cuellar (Clichy Gorkks)
Silva Mata Cazorla Taraabt (Maloney)
RVP Suarez Berbatov
1) Is Simpson nailed on or not?
2) Who should I replace RVP with after next week Tevez or Aguero. Aguero means I get Adam Johnson while Tevez means I get Bale.
3) How does Ruiz injury affect Berbatov?
Thanks for any responses.Open Controls1) not really i think
2)Tevez or Aguero should roughly be the same, i went with Tevez
3)I will affect him somewhat but Berba can play no matter who he partners with
Ruiz: Creative, will create more chances
Rod: Berba plays in his more suited position(Technical Area post)
Petric: Not too sure, he can play thoughOpen Controls1. Yes (for the time being);
2. Although I prefer Aguero I would choose Tevez because of Bale;
3. Berbatov will perform regardless of Ruiz presence - he scored 3 goals when Ruiz wasn't playing.Open Controls
Seeing the highlights, Everton are close to being fixture proof offensively. Infact, with the defences around the leagues, almost all teams are fixture proof offensively. Fellaini looks like a keeper, until Sess/Johnson convince otherwise, again. Defensively, the Baines out move does have a strong argument. Might use that to get me Aguero.
Open ControlsI think the same - next week: Berb + Baines -> Aguero + Cuellar/Wisdom
Open Controls+1 fixture proof teams
Fellaini will be a season keeper when Baines' crosses finally get converted by him IMOOpen Controls
Yeah as things stand I'm just benching Fellaini and keeping until Winter WC at least. A Baines downgrade to someone like Cuellar, is a good move but then you just know Baines will start assisting.
Open ControlsHow about we all agree to ship baines out after norwich game? Then we can all suffer his immediate return to form together!
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Would it be unwise to sacrifice defense to have this team??
Bego
Shorey, cuellar, obrien
Mata, bale, Walcott, silva
Suarez, Rooney, tevez
Gazza, Maloney, turner, nelsenOpen Controls
yes...u can easily dgrade the mid or forward to upgrade def later imo(if they r not performing)...
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I think Berb or even Ba will get you similar returns as Rooney.
How about ditching Rooney for Berb and use the extra to treat yourself to a better defender - a rafael perhaps or Shawcross.Open ControlsI must say though I'm on the whole hugely envious of that team...looks like my Metro front line (the pricing is far more generous)
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Forwards and Midfielders are dependable and at least they can be predicted on their performance but defenders are never ever predictable, who knew O'Brian will score this GW,....so this team will never let you down unless one of the MFs comes as Sub(Like Mata did this week)
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since you are likely to always play all big 4 midfielder, perhaps consider downgrading maloney to a 4.2 and upgrade Nelsen
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Begovic (mannone)
rafael baines cueller (davies demel)
michu cazorla sterling nasri (fellaini)
rvp berba Ba
Have 1FT and 0.7m in the bank….Not sure what to do.
A:. ba + cazorla >> giroud + silva…. for a hit but then i will have both nasri and silva
B: ba + nasri >> suarez + any mid upto 6.8 i.e. morrison…for a hit
C: ba + nasri >> tevez + any mid upto 7.5 i.e. lennon/johnson…for a hit
D: Nasri >>> walcott (but doubling up on ars is bad and i want to use nasri > silva for city coverage)
E: save the FT
I want to bring in suarez and tevez but taking out Ba doesnt make sense since they playing southampton. suarez is on 4 yellows and tevez is playing chelsea.
If i had the cash, i would have just done nasri >> silva but in order to do that now, i have to take a hit…
thoughts??Open ControlsE
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got 2 Frees 0.4 in bank
Which to pick?
A. Clyne -> Shorey, save 2nd Transfer
B. Baines -> Rafa, Barnett-> Cuellar
C. Ba -> Fletcher, Barnett -> Cuellar
D. Hazard -> Bale, Barnett -> Cuellar
Bego (Juss)
Baines Hughes Cameron (Clyne Barnett)
Cazorla Hazard Michu Maloney (Noble)
Rvp Tevez BaOpen Controls
I’m sure I’m not alone here, but I have only just checked my team from the weekend having refused to these last couple of days. My worst fears realised… slid from top 3k down to 25k 🙁 I made my first 4ph of the season, Michu + Fletcher > Fellaini + Berbs. Sterling on the bench. Demel 1pt also kept Cuellar on the bench. 38pt gameweek in a massively high scoring week for many people, slid down many places in all my mini-leagues.
Like I said, I’m sure others are in the same boat, but if I can’t moan here where can I? One of the worst FPL gameweeks in all the years I’ve been playing it..Open ControlsSo now comparing these big hitters ala Bale Silva Mata Hazard Santi vs. the likes of cheaper options like Michu Fellaini Nolan and the likes of Berbs/Ba vs. Kun, i don't think having a Silva over lets say a Fellaini/Michu is a huge advantage or is it even an advantage at all. There is money to throw around and there is money to save, but do we really think these 'big hitters' will massively outscore these budget options or will they even outscore them at all? One major advantage that the budget players have are they are central to their teams and are completely rotation free. Do we think they will eventually get outrun by these big hitters when form fades or when the stronger teams tighten up defensively?
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tough to say, but i agree there will be not a lot of points gap between them. as long as you have a safe captain choice up front each week i think the mids should be relatively similar.
Open ControlsYou're absolutely right at the moment but are Fell and Michu really going to keep this form up all season? At the moment almost every team is scoring goals for fun but if teams do start tightening up then only the big teams will be a reliable source of goals.
Not to mention impact injuries would have on smaller teams later in the season. Its a tough one for sure, I'd lean slightly towards big hitters out performing the rest significantly but not totally convinced.Open Controls
I think it's the need to balance them out. When an expensive mid is in form, you're not really moved by their tough fixtures, as you're certain that the expensive mid's team can score goals in almost any game. That is not the case with the budgeted ones, so I think budgeted options are more likely to get more points per million than the expensive ones when they have easier fixtures.
Open ControlsIndeed, and players you know you can keep playing whatever the game help long term planning. Its clearly better to use transfers for tweaking / sorting injured players out rather than taking hits to make wholesale changes every other week.
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The great thing with 'big hitters' is that they become real viable captaincy options. When on occasion they play a team you know are gonna concede they provide an odds on chance of big points.
For example captaining silva or tevez was a fairly straightforward choice last week and paid off. However if Swansea had that same fixture would you still ba as sure captaining him?Open ControlsIts a good point to make over the christmas rotation period. Will Fellaini be rested? Probably not. Will Walcott or Silva...probably yes, and probably for an easy game.
Like with all things its good to have a mixture. A couple of Fellaini/Michu/Nolan/ Two of Bale/Silva/Santi/Haz/Mata and one of Sterling/Maloney is pretty template but has so far been successful.Open Controls
Garrido = essential?
Open ControlsRelated to Baines (for me) is the question of Arsenal's defence. If you look at the stats, they are very high in the table for the regular defensive solidity. But they top the table for errors and errors that led to goals.
So, have they been unlucky to have paid so heavily for an unusual number of silly errors? When the error rate regresses to the mean, will the solidity shine through to create clean sheets? Or are those errors intrinsic to the players?Open ControlsNotice the Arsenal errors when Gibbs is present and when Gibbs isn't. Just a coincidence?
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The errors when Gibbs was present coincided with when Diaby was present I think? My feeling is they are missing his presence badly in midfield where they look v weak at the mo. Another point is podolski was working hard to impress defensively as well as in attack and to me he has regressed in his definition workrate recently leaving the fb exposed.
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These are excellent observations and great questions - could you do me a favour and come up some equally good answers? 🙂
Open ControlsYes I think they will tighten up...Mertesacker/Sagna is one of my touted Baines replacements...along with Clichy/Zaba
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Play 1 from these:
Hughes(stk)
Shorey(wig)
Ridgewell(sun)
Fulham haven't kept a CS away fromhome, and have conceded quite a lot too, though it's Stoke this time.
Sunderland have scored in each of their home games, except against Aston Villa.
Wigan haven't given away a CS to any side after the GW1 game against Chelsea.
All down to the most attacking player?Open Controls+1
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Arsenal and Man Utd have both had players scoring 20+ PL goals in a season nine times, more than any other club.
Giroud!Open ControlsEveryone should warm up to him. Such a great lad. 😀
GIROUDDD (Even though i don't have him, i remain a Giroud lover. He's like an orphan i adopted when everyone threw him out the door :D)Open ControlsWell yeah, that goes without saying.
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Giroud will slowly creep to 15 goals...the goals are being shared out equally at Arsenal.
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It's been a long time since i've actually seen meaningful discussions rather than RMT...... seems odd actually but it's nice
Open ControlsLiverpool FC winger Raheem Sterling, 17, quizzed by police over alleged assault on a woman in Liverpool. Details soon
according to BBCOpen Controls
He's settled right into the England squad hasn't he?
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Not the best way to go about losing your virginity Raheem.
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Mark was bang on with The Watchlist again.
Clyne - assist.
Sterling - 2 assists.
Cuellar - goal.Open Controlsto be fair though the watchlist is a long list of players, many of which don't necessarily perform. when you list that many, a lot are bound to come right.
Open ControlsAye, but ranking Sterling at no.3 caused debate. I know I doubted it.
Open Controlsa lot of people did doubt him actually, i saw him on many people's bench. the watchlist is excellent, i always have a look at it - but the sheer number of recommendations always means some are going to do well, and others not. They put the right players in front of you though, its just a matter of choosing yourself. I started sterling and got good reward this week thankfully.
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What did he predict? That they had good fixtures? It doesn't take a rocket scientist.
That's no slight on Mark. The guy is a hero and a legend. But he didn't predict these outcomes mate. He also benched sterling like all of us. Bang on!Open ControlsHe predicts which player to have from the team, could easily have gone with Bardsley, Gerrard etc... Couple of weeks ago, the top 3 defenders were Baines, Rafael and Huth, i had all three and it worked out well. Again, he could easily have picked Wilson over Huth. You seem to have a massive problem with The Watchilist for no good reason, it is probably my favourite weekly article.
Open ControlsIt's a nice article. My problem with it lately was that there was no representation of Norwich's defence. Despite it looking so good.
Open ControlsThey were playing Man Utd! Nobody thought Norwich would keep a CS. He has highlighted Norwich as a tight defence before, i remember R.Martin was in the Watchlist for the first month of the season.
Open ControlsYeah, I regret not backing Norwich but they had United this week and Everton the next - the two most attacking teams in the league currently - that just dented their appeal and kept them out of the Watchlist rankings. Will likely change now that the United game is dead and with form so strong.
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He did get quite a lot of stick for last week's watchlist.
Open ControlsMostly from the guy above... shock.
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Dude, there's no need to challenge other people's opinions so vehemently. If you disagree with someone, that's fine, but you don't have to be so confrontational all the time. You do it A LOT - perhaps you don't even realise.
I don't wish to start an argument so please don't take this as a personal challenge or anything.Open Controls
Yeah, credit where credit's due. He stuck by his convictions and it paid off.
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2012/11/13/the-watchlist-updated-gameweek-12/comment-page-1/#comment-4321589Open Controls(assuming he went with Sterling in the end)
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Walcott or Giroud?
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Hi guys
Good to go for next week?
Schwarzer
Evans?/Cameron Shawcross Gibbs
Sterling Bale Mata Lallana
RVP Suarez Ba
Really unsure about the Gibbs/Evans injury situationsOpen ControlsOk, Roscola and anyone else who feels they have something constructive to add, let's talk about Baines! I prefer the term discussion to debate, as debate suggests those taking part have an agenda.
This much we know: Baines has been consistently creating chances at a higher rate than any other player. Disregarding a few players who have all played less than 90 minutes and a few strikers who haven't managed to cement a place in their respective sides, he has the highes rate this season of one chance created every 22.8 minutes*. Incidentally, this also better than Mata and Silva's rates from last season (25.9 and 28.4 respectively) and is a big jump up from his rate of 46.8 from last season. Since chances created are probably the best measurement we can use to forecast future assists, he has the potential to get more assists than any other player.
As a result, he's been hailed as a '6th midfielder' and his set-piece duties give him a huge attacking threat and bonus points galore, especially due to his classification as a defender where goals scored count for more and attacking contribution is weighted more heavily for the PPI for defenders. With the bonus of four points for a clean sheet instead of one for midfielders and his sub £8m price (which is in the mid price range for a midfielder), he would seem to be a must-have. In fact, a glance at his average position shows that he's playing almost as far forward as an orthodox winger.
However, despite the glut of chances created so far this season (50), he's managed only meagre returns in the assist department and has only two to his name. Last season's data shows a similar story. This has lead to many claiming he is not worth his price tag and more money should be spent further up the pitch where historically more points are to be gained. The question is this: Why have only 4% of the chances he's created been converted by team-mates?
*Granted, it's a relatively small sample size, but we can fairly say that Everton have significantly improved their attacking threat this year and are top for both total shots and shots in the box.Open ControlsBaines OUT!
Open Controlsi feel i have to sacrifice him, as much as i like the fella for FPL, but its kind of a decision between whether that extra investment up front (suarez instead of fletcher/berba), or mid (silva/caz over michu/nolan/fellaini) is worth it. its hard to call because a lot of cheaper options up front have been performing well. i just cant afford to get left behind without suarez etc..
Open ControlsYeah, it's important to keep assessing whether the extra cash spent up front or on other expensive defenders is in fact money well spent when you consider the alternatives. At the moment, I'd argue it isn't. It could also be subjective. For example, I'm happy with my front 8.
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The chances ain't been converted, and the clean sheets, well..er..they're dirty! I'd hope for some increase in his returns, but can't expect them given how things are panning out. Alot depends on how the cash could be used elsewhere in upgrades, but patience is required with Leighton. Think the Norwich games returns will impact greatly on many of his owners.
Open ControlsYeah, patience is needed for any player whose main attacking threat comes from creating chances for other players as there's no telling if/when those chances will be converted.
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Something to note, 'Der Hammer' took a few of the corners off Baines didn't he? He'll likely take his fair share of free-kicks too.
Open ControlsThis is something to consider, but since he's playing in such an advanced position, I doubt set-pieces account for all of his chances created. It may have an impact but it's difficult to say how much, especially since we don't know how often 'Der Hammer' will play.
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i have been wondering if is to do with fellaini position, last year when jelavic was scoring it was straight from crosses or through balls. This year it seems to be those passes all go through fellaini first to knock down/ chest down etc. and he either shoots himself or lays of to player coming through. might explain why others have been scoring rather than jelavic also.
So has baines become the assisters assister?Open ControlsPossibly, but he's still creating more chances, so this isn't really that relevant.
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Good point there, but what stats really don't take into account, is the quality of those chances. We can't really point out just by looking at these stats, that Baines can't cross, or the strikers can't score. I think it's fair to believe that the quality of chances created by Mata and Silva, are better than those created by Baines, or that the strikers that convert Baines' creations, aren't as good as the strikers that convert Mata or Silva's creations.
Open ControlsThe quality of players converting the chances is definitely something we have to consider. The fact that Baines is creating more chances than either of those two would surely go some way to making up for that disadvantage though.
I agree that the chances created aren't idea but they're the best single indication we have for creativity. Does anyone have any other ideas? Doos?Open ControlsI don't think creativity can be measured in statistical terms. A player can be very creative, but the striker finishing it off might not be so good, and a player may just not be so creative, but the striker finishing the chance created can be world class. This will lead to the stats showing that the latter is much more creative than the former, which might not be the case in reality.
Open ControlsTrue, but it's still the single best indication we have. See my comments below in reply to Roscola regarding crossing.
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Excellent summary of the conundrum. Why are his chances not being converted and will that change? For me it has to change to justify his price.
Impasse. Greenwindmill has asked the right question - is there something about the passes he makes that are reported as chances that mean that they're not really what you would expect to be converted?Open ControlsThat could be the case. A quick look at his crosses vs thru balls tells us that they're coming from crosses. Players like Bale and especially Valencia have historically had success that way though. Then we have to start looking at the quality of crosses I suppose. You'd think the sheer volume of them (49 successful - significantly more than anyone else) might make up for it a little though.
Open ControlsBut there's another way of looking at it, since I don't know the detailed stats, I'm just going to use 4% here, and this would ony mean that out of those 49 successful crosses, the strikers have converted just 2, this might be wrong though, but I'm just using the stats you've provided. And this is quite alarming, it also depends on whether the crosses he's provided, have been converted straight in, or have been nodded down for another playeby let's say Fellaini, who eventually got the assist.
Do you have the stats for the crosses completed by Baines, which resulted in a shot(header) at goal or off-target?Open ControlsI would recommend signing up for a full membership and having a look at the stats yourself!
The 4% I mentioned is the amount of chances created (regardless of how they were created) converted into goals. I don't have access to more specific data on crosses and even if I did watch all of the games from this season, I don't think it would be a big enough sample size to really make a solid judgement.Open Controls
The problem is that chances created isn't as reliable a metric as we think it is. Every time Baines whips in a cross or plays a long ball its a chance created (as is a corner) but these will obviously have lower conversion rates then a through ball which puts the forward 1 v 1 with the keeper.
Open ControlsAlso while looking at Baines, I believe you should look at the opportunity cost of having Baines i.e. will not having Baines get you a significant upgrade?
Open ControlsYeah, I've touched upon this. I think it depends on the options available and whether it would mean using a lot of transfers.
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got 2 Frees 0.4 in bank
Which to pick?
A. Clyne -> Shorey, save 2nd Transfer
B. Baines -> Rafa, Barnett-> Cuellar
C. Ba -> Fletcher, Barnett -> Cuellar
D. Hazard -> Bale, Barnett -> Cuellar
E. Hazard -> Silva, Barnett -> Cuellar
Bego (Juss)
Baines Hughes Cameron (Clyne Barnett)
Cazorla Hazard Michu Maloney (Noble)
Rvp Tevez BaOpen Controls
