Moving Target – Danny Graham

Hull City boss Steve Bruce added to his forward options late last week by acquiring Danny Graham on a season-long loan deal from Sunderland. The former Swansea man is the club’s seventh signing of the summer and follows the likes of Allan McGregor, Curtis Davies, Maynor Figueroa and Ahmed Elmohamady to the KC Stadium as The Tigers prepare for life back in the Premier League.

Having fallen out of favour under Paolo Di Canio after just six months at Sunderland, Graham’s security of game time looks set for a significant increase in the season ahead. Judging by his new manager’s comments, it’s clear that Bruce – who has an option to make the deal permanent at the end of 2013/14 – is a huge fan of the 27-year-old:

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3,371 Comments Post a Comment

Stupendous
10 years, 10 months ago
So here is my strategy for the early part of the season...

I plan to go straight for the top of my league (main league). First week I plan on loading heavy with City and Chelsea and all the big boys I can get from the big teams with great opening fixtures. MCFC, Chel, Arse, Lfc etc. (most of which you will want all season anyway).

Once I am in the lead, I can spend money and take hits to ensure I get great returns each and every week. It is basically the same strategy I used two years ago when I finished my highest place and won my main league (my most important thing).

Making money this year is a biggy. I have learnt from all of you that have been playing this a lot longer than me, that, making money, and making money early is very important. I found out last year the hard way when I was actually LOSING money from getting rid of players who ended up getting bandwagons right after I did so!

So, besides liking the sound of my own voice, and boring you lot to death, my question is...

What is your strategy for this season?

I really don't care about where in the world I finish, as chances of winning are what, 1 in 3 million really? I just want to have fun AND beat all my mates and win my leagues!!!
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1. Ryan
  10 years, 10 months ago
  For me its not so much about strategy but making good decisions every week. If you have the right players to begin with value will follow. I just like to use simple guidelines like picking players with good fixtures/form, don't transfer out form players, don't be too stubborn by refusing to get players because you thought they wouldn't do well etc.
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  1. Twelve years a slave
    10 years, 10 months ago
    lol my plan just to be in the first half million by end of GW3 then wildcard
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    1. Stupendous
      10 years, 10 months ago
      Think i will WC after 8, and load up on Chels, Rags and Arsenal. That is, if I can bring myself to be filthy, and get United in.
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2. Onana Whatsmyname
  10 years, 10 months ago
  for me I am going 433 for the first time from the off (have always previously been 343) as I think the new bonus and affordable premium options at the back can reap rewards. Eg Coleman, Nastasic, Mert and Toure as a 4 will only cost 21mil.
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  1. Stupendous
    10 years, 10 months ago
    I actually didn't even consider that! Looks like a plan!!!
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Jinswick
10 years, 10 months ago
A) Snodgrass & Giroud
B) Walcott & Anelka
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1. NapalmDeath (Northern Chaos…
  10 years, 10 months ago
  A
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2. Four Four Boyz
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Wouldn't be touching Giroud or Anelka if I was you...
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Elniñorules
10 years, 10 months ago
Sup geezers.

What's cooking?
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PAIRIDAEZAN
10 years, 10 months ago
REPOST from last page, please advise! ^_^

Hey lads,

Checking back in for another season. I got as high as inside the top 20,000 last season but I tailed off after moving house and not having the internet for a long time.

That said, I may have to upgrade to a full membership this time around.

So, down to business. Here's my first draft, just wanted to get some thoughts of you fine folk.

Mannone (Boruc)
Mert, Toure, Clyne (Whittaker, Ryan Bennett)
Miralles, Kagawa, Paulinho, Hazard, Walcott
RVW, RVP (Anelka)

First and foremost, I am a tad uneasy with leaving out Bale in place of Paulinho but I am hoping to make some quick money on him.

I think Kagawa could find a new and improved role under Moyes, particularly if Rooney leaves. Also, what are your thoughts on Zaha? I like the lad and he has exceptional movement and he carved up United when they met. Could take a while to see any reasonable return but he's on my watchlist.

Obviously, RVP is a machine but I could leave him out and put in another prospect striker in with the purview of making some quick money. A nightmarish scenario, I know but that would also allow me to get in someone like J-Rod over Anelka.

I don't like the idea of having neither of them (RVP & Bale) but IMO these early months are all about increasing your budget by a couple of million.

I hope to have roughly 102-104m to play with come January.

Thoughts?

Please, don't hold back...

I will happily rate your team in return if you so wish.

Kudos!
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1. Camzy
  10 years, 10 months ago
  It's a bit weak if you ask me.
  
  You have 2 Utd players lack of City and Liverpool, and no Bale.
  
  You must play the fixtures, and that means: City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool are priorities.
  
  Don't get Paulinho. He's a DM. Bale is indispensable if he stays in the league imo.
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  1. PAIRIDAEZAN
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Thanks for the advice. Do you rate Gerrard AND Sturridge? It's always nice to get those assists and goals in the same fixture...
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2. Onana Whatsmyname
  10 years, 10 months ago
  A decent start in my view but you need more City in there IMO mate
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  1. PAIRIDAEZAN
    10 years, 10 months ago
    I'm avoiding City for now. They're all priced too high and, to be honest, I haven't even done any recon on their pre-season.
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    1. Oz lotto
      10 years, 10 months ago
      you think silva priced too high? will be costing 10+ before christmas.
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NapalmDeath (Northern Chaos…
10 years, 10 months ago
Anyone considered the 'miserable blue trio'?

Silva, Negredo, Aguero

Purely for city's favourable opening fixtures. Make adjustments later.
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1. PAIRIDAEZAN
  10 years, 10 months ago
  I have but that would involve wildcarding early on. Which is something which can work if done properly, the problem is, as always with this game, you're trying to predict the future.
  
  I can't remember the last time I had three players from the same team.
  
  Proceed with caution!
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2. Stupendous
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Definitely flirting with it..well 3 City that is! No bias!!! 🙂
  
  Why 'miserable'?
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3. Camzy
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Nah.
  
  Too risky by far when there are nice options like Hazard, Walcott and Sturridge around.
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  1. Sanguinista
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Hey Camzy, can you RMT
    
    RMT please -
    
    Mignolet 4.0 deadwood
    
    Collins Clyne Turner (Norwich) Parr Chester
    
    Bale Hazard Walcott Snodgrass Thomas
    
    Aguero Sturridge van Wolf
    
    Thinking whether i should downgrade Wolf and shore up my defence or get a regular 4.5 goalie
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  2. NapalmDeath (Northern Chaos…
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Giroud, Coutinho, Bale fill the other slots.
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FrankH
10 years, 10 months ago
Hi all,
Can anyone clarify if this is correct for the points scoring this season

As per the fpl site goals scored

Goalkeepers and defenders (4 points)
Midfielders (6 points)
Fowards (8 points)
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1. In Like Flynn.
  10 years, 10 months ago
  http://fantasy.premierleague.com/rules/
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Stupendous
10 years, 10 months ago
Think I have cracked opening week!!

Mannone (Boruc other)
Nastasic Enrique Demel
Mata Bale Hazard Snodgrass
Giroud Negredo Anelka

thomas, gabbidon, rosenior
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1. FrankH
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Mourinho came out and said today that mata and Torres may miss first game of season due to friendly international. Supposedly they will have a 15 hour flight before returning to training sat morning and will be too exhausted to play the Sunday. Hazard better option if you can afford him
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  1. Stupendous
    10 years, 10 months ago
    You mean the same Hazard two places to the right of Mata above?
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2. Onana Whatsmyname
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Very nice balance indeed. For me though you need one premium striker who is a guaranteed scorer eg Aguero/RVP to help balance some of the risk. I like the fact you have posted something different though so thanks for sharing.
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FrankH
10 years, 10 months ago
Can anyone clarify if this is correct for the points scoring this season

As per the fpl site goals scored

Goalkeepers and defenders (4 points)
Midfielders (6 points)
Fowards (8 points)
Surely they have this back to front?
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1. In Like Flynn.
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Just answered above. Give us a minute to find stuff, sheeesh!
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2. NapalmDeath (Northern Chaos…
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Idk where you're reading that, but its
  
  GK/Def (6)
  Mid (5)
  Fwd (4)
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3. The Shadow
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Those are the points under the new bonus points system to determine who gets the 1-3 bonus points.
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  1. Elniñorules
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Now that he's brought it up, that's weird. Surely defenders deserve more BPS for scoring a goal than forwards?
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    1. The Shadow
      10 years, 10 months ago
      Forwards get bonus for scoring, defenders get bonus for defensive stuff.
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      1. Elniñorules
        10 years, 10 months ago
        Why give defenders more FPL points though. Bonus should be proportional to points.
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        The Shadow
        10 years, 10 months ago
        A forward scoring multiple goals is still the surest route to bonus points. Defenders get rewarded in the low scoring games.
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        Elniñorules
        10 years, 10 months ago
        It might not be a defender's job to score a goal alright. That should only mean defenders are doing something that deems it even more worthy of a bonus as its outside their job scope. Equivalent of working over-time. Also surely a goal is a goal in the context of a game.
        
        I think the only argument for doing this is an attempt to even out the chance of getting a bonus at all positions. Still flawed imo.
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  2. Elniñorules
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Congrats btw, Norwich upto 3rd 😀
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    1. The Shadow
      10 years, 10 months ago
      Thanks, we may be third, but I would not trade places with any other team.
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      1. Elniñorules
        10 years, 10 months ago
        I think Peppie's machine would have you at first after this massive hike. Top stuff, keep em coming.
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@Bryan
10 years, 10 months ago
Gerrard or Coutinho...?

They are really close in stats. Gerrard has the set pieces, Coutinho more of a threat from open play. Gerrard has allot less ownership though, so if he blanks early, his price won't rocket down.

But I fancy Coutinho to have a touch more upside!
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1. Sleno
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Coutinho is going to be playing as one of the forward 3 in the good old 4-3-3, and Gerrard each year sits a little deeper, and cant see that trend stopping this year. Looking at the players Rodgers has bought they are all pretty attacking, so i see Stevie being asked to run the game a more from deep and let the other guys pull their weight for once!
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2. TokyoRed 東京赤
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Coutinho definitely, he will come on strong this season
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Twelve years a slave
10 years, 10 months ago
Notable results for GW1 since 2008/9 from the big 4

2008./9 Chelsea 4 Portsmouth 0
2009/10 Everton 1 Arsenal 6
2010/11 Arsenal 4 Fulham 0, Chlsea 6 wba 0
2011/12 Man c 4 Swansea 0
2012/13 Chelsea 4 Reading 2

If the trend continues , someone going to get a battering on GW1 at the hands of a top four club, and with Chelsea at home to Hull , Arsenal home to Villa and City home to Newcastle it not hard to imagine a battering or two.

Neglect coverage at your peril
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1. Ryan
  10 years, 10 months ago
  I agree that everyone should try and get a decent prospect from each of those teams. I think Hazard, Walcott/Giroud, & Silva/Aguero would be the likely candidates, although it will be interesting to see if Negredo starts regularly in pre season.
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  1. Twelve years a slave
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Lets not hope it Swansea 0 Man u 4
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2. Kostja
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Mid table teams have had some whippings on day 1 too. didnt Fulham beat Norwich 5-0 at the start of last season?
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  1. Kostja
    10 years, 10 months ago
    and swansea 5- qpr 0, also Liverpool 0- WBA 3
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  2. Twelve years a slave
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Blackpool won away 4 0 a few seasons back on GW1 Bandwagons galore
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    1. Kostja
      10 years, 10 months ago
      I just wanted to note that you dont really have a point there. Ofcourse players from good teams are better. But I doubt the stats you pointed out changed anyones team building plans
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      1. Twelve years a slave
        10 years, 10 months ago
        Dis i expect them too?
        
        Im just pointing out that it important to cover the major teams
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        Kostja
        10 years, 10 months ago
        and I tried to point out that good performances from bad teams are equally possible. I think first rounds are probably more than 50% luck.
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        Twelve years a slave
        10 years, 10 months ago
        You keep believing that
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        Kostja
        10 years, 10 months ago
        I will, maybe I figure it out someday and do as well as you 🙂
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Jay Jay Okocha
10 years, 10 months ago
2 questions from a curious newbie:

1. Is a defense of Collins, Turner, Clyne, Baker, Parr too uber?

2. I have 1.5 left to invest...

A) Mirallas -> Silva
B) Cornelius -> Aspas
C) Parr -> Mertesacker
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1. Twelve years a slave
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Just because a plyer is cheap dosent mean he is bad !!!
  
  Turner Clyne and Collins are all decent prospects for points , playing for clubs who should manage a few clean sheets and be finishing mid table. Dont know much about Baker and Parr
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  1. Sleno
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Yeah Baker is going to kill alot of peoples teams, so hard to get rid of a 4.0 without taking a couple of transfers. And all the talk from Villa is he would be starting. Chester a better bet at Hull
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2. nedfoo
  10 years, 10 months ago
  I like option C, gives you a bit more flexibility in defence in the long run as well
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  1. Twelve years a slave
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Palace and Hull rotate well if you have the stomach for it.
    
    Remember , 4.0m defenders dont need to get you points to be useful , its the other players they allow you to buy that get the extra points
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3. OShaughnessy
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Nothing wrong with the Uber... until something goes Uber wrong.
  
  An injury or player being dropped leaves you scrambling to plug the hole with another cheapo player.
  I'm looking at you rotating door of Reading!
  
  Legend has it that spending transfers on 4.5mil players makes the baby Jesus cry.
  
  Make your life easy & find at least one player to anchor your defense around...
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4. OShaughnessy
  10 years, 10 months ago
  "The Pitfalls of Going Uber”.
  
  DANIEL - I AM ONE OF YOU !!
  http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2013/07/04/scout-report-allan-mcgregor/?hc_page=2#hc_comment_5015270
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TorresMagic™
10 years, 10 months ago
Morning DeadZoners.

Just over 25 more days. 🙂
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1. zan
  10 years, 10 months ago
  DZ yo!!!!!
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2. In Like Flynn.
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Hi TM. Only 25 days? It's time to panic.
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Stupendous
10 years, 10 months ago
Whats the scoop on this Luis Alberto for Lfc? He is 6m. Frees up loads of cash. Viable option?
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svgcr
10 years, 10 months ago
lambert or berbatov?
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1. Sleno
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Lambo has the better starting fix. But 4-7 for berbs ... purrrrrr
  
  WBA
  che
  CAR
  STO
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nedfoo
10 years, 10 months ago
RMT

Boruc | Davis

Coleman | Collins | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0

Bale | Hazard | Mirallas | Nolan | Snodgrass

RVP | Sturridge | 4.5

If Bent moves to Fulham/Newcastle then he's in for the 4.5er and Snoddy is out for a 4.5er.

Thoughts on this team?
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Koflok
10 years, 10 months ago
1) Walker Nasty or Zaba Merte?
2) Mirallas or Snoddie?
With Mirallas, I can get the two defenders from Q1 + Collins,
With Snoddie, I can get Merte, Nasty and Walker (or Merte, Zaba and Kaboul, etc)
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1. OShaughnessy
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Nastasic price, fixtures & less of a rotation risk.
  *Mertesacker & ARS maybe struggling depending on the knock Koscielny took
  
  Leaning Snodgrass as EVE, HUL & SOT seem a decent run to start the year & as it appears you'll bolster your backline through the process.
  
  Mirallas & EVE are away to NOR, home to WBA which seems 'OK' however, then EVE are away to the stingy CAR with CHE waiting for them after that.
  
  Sort term Sndograss comes out ahead...
  
  PS. Have you considered the "inbetween" with Pienaar at 7mil.
  Martinez loves to play through the left side & along with Baines this could be a decent shout.
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  1. Koflok
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Nasty in then. Unless ManCity bought another central defender.
    
    True Snoddie is a better short term investment it seems due to the fixture.
    
    Mirallas is more of a gut feeling thing. I don't know why I always wanted to have him.
    
    Is Pienaar nailed on? Interesting point on the left-side attack. And if he is on the left wing, then shouldn't he be considered OOP just like Mirallas as well?
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    1. OShaughnessy
      10 years, 10 months ago
      I don't see / know why Pienaar wouldn't be in the side? He netted 140+pts too...
      (Happy to know if I'm wrong about playing time?)
      
      As for Mirallas he seems a fave round these parts as he's supposed to get fwd this yr.
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      1. Koflok
        10 years, 10 months ago
        I think it's probably because Pieenar might have some competition vs Deulefou?
        And his scoring ability isn't as good as Mirallas.
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thorvaldsson
10 years, 10 months ago
I am going to flip a coin about Gerrard and Coutinho. Heads Stevie G, tails Coutinho that's the only way I can pick.
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1. OShaughnessy
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Why not both? *wink
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  1. thorvaldsson
    10 years, 10 months ago
    I can't I'm like Harvey Two Face from Batman I must have only one!
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2. TokyoRed 東京赤
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Flip a coin then pick Coutinho
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  1. thorvaldsson
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Flipped already (Heads) Gerrard! That is my fate.
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3. Tommytour
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Jordan Henderson
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Rabid Dog
10 years, 10 months ago
First 6 games starting X1 with and without RVP.

A, With.

Boruc
M Turner - Mertesacker - Baker
Hazzard - Bale - Walcott - Koren
RVP - Sturridge - Anelka

B, Without

Boruc
M Turner - Mertesacker - Baker
Coutinho - Bale - Hazzard - Walcott
Aguero - Giroud - Anelka
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1. Cluub
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Prefer A, tbh.
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  1. Rabid Dog
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Over the RVP team I'm tempted to downgrade Hazzard temporary due to GW 3 and upgrade for Citeh cover.
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k
10 years, 10 months ago
who else is tripling on the Liverpool defense?
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1. In Like Flynn.
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Too rich for my blood.
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2. OShaughnessy
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Unsure if this is a troll but, I'm gullible...
  
  Why take triple LIV & be unable to take advantage of favourable offensive fixtures.
  
  Further, last yrs results may not replicate themselves so perhaps a double up at the back & then wait to see?
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  1. In Like Flynn.
    10 years, 10 months ago
    This^^ Liverpool's big point potential looks to me to be in their attack.
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3. Tommytour
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Get some Arsenal instead
  
  Mignolet Toure max
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Cluub
10 years, 10 months ago
What do y'all think of this?

Mignolet, Marshall
Parr, Clyne, Collins, Vertonghen, Coleman
Bale, Mirallas, Snodgrass, Hazard, Koren
Sturridge, Negredo, J Rod
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1. Rabid Dog
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Just be sure Negredo starts from GW1 and gets reg 90 mins if not downgrade Vert and upgrade Neg for Aguero, the space that's getting filled by a absent RVP needs to spot on especially if RVP goes on a mission.
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  1. Cluub
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Good point. Yeah, Negredo is only a-go if he is nailed on. I'm not spending 9.5 on someone not playing every game.
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    1. Rabid Dog
      10 years, 10 months ago
      Both of the selections I'm tampering with will still change as there's plenty of time, see what happens leading up to the final week, you should have a better idea then.
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2. OShaughnessy
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Missing ARS coverage is going to be tough sir.
  
  AVL, FUL, TOT & SUN seem too good to pass up to start the yr.
  
  I want Hazard in my side too but, he didn't score well away from Stanford Bridge last yr.
  
  With CHE visiting MUN, EVE & TOT in their first 5 I'd be inclined to wait...
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  1. Tommytour
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Hazard for the Hull bashing then out
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Matt -"ain't no p…
10 years, 10 months ago
Morning chaps!
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1. Cluub
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Mornin sir! Where you at, currently?
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  1. Matt -"ain't no p…
    10 years, 10 months ago
    In Thailand mate, you?
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    1. Cluub
      10 years, 10 months ago
      Denver, CO
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    2. Cluub
      10 years, 10 months ago
      Currently 10pm 🙂
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Siva Mohan
10 years, 10 months ago
Good Day Gents!

MOURINHO: LOANS PLANNED

Nathaniel Chalobah
Josh McEachran
Lucas Piazon
Wallace Oliveira dos Santos
Bertrand Traore

5 players going out on loan..

** for Mata, Torres & Azpi owners **

Chelsea's three Spain internationals will miss Hull match. [Guardian]

José Mourinho is resigned to being without his Spanish trio Juan Mata, Fernando Torres and César Azpilicueta when Chelsea start their Premier League campaign at home to Hull City on 18 August. The trio are due back in London only 24 hours before the opener after Spain's friendly in Ecuador.

The World Cup and European Championship winners will play in Guayaquil on 14 August, the night England host Scotland at Wembley, with all three of Chelsea's Spanish contingent expected to be included in Vicente del Bosque's squad. Mourinho is already planning his team for the visit of promoted Hull on the following Sunday and, while the extra 24 hours granted by television coverage means the trio could be included on the bench, the Chelsea manager does not anticipate starting with any of the three.

'If a guy goes to Ecuador and arrives back in London on Saturday without sleep after 15 hours of flight, and arrives to train on Saturday morning, I don't think he is going to play on Sunday.'
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1. Matt -"ain't no p…
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Cheers on the post Siva!
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2. Always (C)ane
  10 years, 10 months ago
  how about Silva, Negredo and Navas?
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  1. Manani
    10 years, 10 months ago
    good point
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  2. Tommytour
    10 years, 10 months ago
    They play on Monday night I wouldn't worry
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3. Elniñorules
  10 years, 10 months ago
  This is going to be Tomas Kalas season!
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4. Michaelangelo
  10 years, 10 months ago
  feeling good about lukaku now
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5. Acquafresca
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Lukakuwagon?
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  1. Michaelangelo
    10 years, 10 months ago
    you know it
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  2. Siva Mohan
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Lukaku/Hazard
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Michaelangelo
10 years, 10 months ago
Hello infidels! 🙂

United has a friendly in about 5 hours i think. Hope we see kagawa playing behind rvp
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xxxiang
10 years, 10 months ago
Hi guys,

any comments on this team for the first 5-7 games?

mannone/boruc
clyne/mert/nast/parr/turner
walcott/coutinho/bale/hazard/thomas
sturridge/kone/rodriguez

lacking man city coverage up front?
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1. Tommytour
  10 years, 10 months ago
  No need to double on Pool attack
  
  Coutinho > Silva
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  1. Michaelangelo
    10 years, 10 months ago
    didn't notice coutinho. this seems like the best move ^
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2. Michaelangelo
  10 years, 10 months ago
  think so. aguero or silva are the safer choices but i don't know who you want to drop. I'd say city have arguably the best fixtures so you may think of getting hazard out considering the match against united and then the blank (unless double gameweek is confirmed)
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3. xxxiang
  10 years, 10 months ago
  ^/^^ thanks.but coutinho seems to be in good form as per pre season.or should i drop sturridge for a 9.5m striker?
  
  ya i will drop hazard if not for the double gameweek.
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  1. Big Fudge
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Could drop Sturridge to Negredo
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  2. Tommytour
    10 years, 10 months ago
    I wouldn't risk Negredo or Jovetic starting first game
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  3. Michaelangelo
    10 years, 10 months ago
    you may have to drop sturridge. He's injured, isn't he?
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Big Fudge
10 years, 10 months ago
Thoughts on Aspas? Good for the start of the season? Are Kone/Berbatov/Lambert/RvW better than him?
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1. TokyoRed 東京赤
  10 years, 10 months ago
  He looks a decent punt but it is a punt. Berba is more proven, RvW another interesting punt.
  
  I was flitting between Berba and RvW until I shorned Negrodo in and downgraded my midfield.
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  1. Big Fudge
    10 years, 10 months ago
    I had thought about Negredo, but I have found that my side looks stronger with Hazard, M. Turner and Aspas compared to Mirallas, Chester and Negredo.
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2. Valar(Keith)
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Berbatov and Kone(if jelly leaves)
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3. Tommytour
  10 years, 10 months ago
  A wait and see for me, Sturridge > Aspas downgrade possibly if he does well
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Tommytour
10 years, 10 months ago
As its quiet rip my team apart

Boruc Given
Coleman Turner Clyne Collins Chester
Bale Walcott Hazard Mirallas Thomas
Aguero Sturridge J Rod
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1. Big Fudge
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Very nice midfield, although I reckon downgrade Mirallas to Snodgrass, upgrade Coleman to Mertesacker, then you should have 0.5m to spend wherever you want. Maybe Given to Mannone if he named as Sunderland keeper. Decent rotation.
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  1. Tommytour
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Sound advice
    
    Only problem comes when I want to fit in RVP
    
    Aguero > RVP GW4 is a must for me, soi would be looking to downgrade Hazard to a 6.5 possibly Snodgrass?
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    1. 808Shadow
      10 years, 10 months ago
      this is assuming that RVP's price doesn't rise too much for you which can be a dangerous assumption
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      1. Tommytour
        10 years, 10 months ago
        A 6m or hit if needed
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    2. Big Fudge
      10 years, 10 months ago
      Well Norwich have stronger fixtures than Everton early, but I understand your logic. Perhaps have a look at which teams are strong from GW4 onwards and make a choice from there. Bear in mind you would have 3 transfers before the Aguero > RVP to save up some money. Hell you could even just have 1.0 in the bank before it and then go Hazard > Mirallas which would give you the 3.0m you need 😀
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      1. Tommytour
        10 years, 10 months ago
        Barfa looks a prime candidate for GW4 but needs to show some form first
        
        I'll keep tinkering 😉
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2. Koflok
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Haha wow this is my exact team before changes to below.
  
  Clyne's a good value but you sure you want to double up Sot defense?
  
  If Newcastle fixed their defensive issue, Mbiwa can be a good shout.
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  1. Tommytour
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Change back 😉
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    1. Koflok
      10 years, 10 months ago
      😉
      
      Considering it if I ended up going back with Aguero.
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Koflok
10 years, 10 months ago
Okay so.. Rate this team please?

Boruc - 4.0
Walker - Nasty - Coleman - Collins - Turner
Bale - Hazard - Walcott - Snoddie - Thomas
Negredo - Sturridge - JRod

I like Negredo as a short term punt (assuming he doesn't go to the Spain friendly vs Ecuador) - before exchanging him to Berba or Joga BONYto in week 5ish.
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1. Tommytour
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Don't like the Negredo punt, can see him being eased in
  Walker pretty pricey for a team that kept few cleansheets last year, replace with Arsenal defender
  Downgrade Turner or Collins to a 4 and get another keeper
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  1. Koflok
    10 years, 10 months ago
    My reasoning behind Negredo is he's the only out and out striker in City, and that Aguero is at his best when he's playing behind a striker (like interchangeably with Tevez or with Forlan during his Atletico days). I can see Pellegrini experimenting Aguero-Negredo partnership.
    
    Although true it's a punt that can easily go fail. I need to keep an eye on the Spain friendly as well as Cty's lineup during friendlies.
    
    Walker is a not a favourite here I know but I just love Tottenham opening fixtures. Plenty of CS I can see. Probably Kaboul is a better shout for a team that kept few cleansheets last year, but I can't see him being nailed on right away. And yeah again, I want to have Tottenham coverage in defense.
    
    You reckon Merte will get more CS than Walker in these fixtures?
    
    TOT: cpl SWA ars NOR car CHE WHM avl HUL
    ARS: AVL ful TOT sun STO swa wba NOR cpl
    
    It's Turner from Cardiff 😉
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    1. Tommytour
      10 years, 10 months ago
      I'd still back Arsenal and 0.5 cheaper
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Rotation and fixture difficulty analysis
Absinthe 42
10 years, 10 months ago
For my latest project, I’ve been working on working out what are the best defensive rotations based on fixture difficulty.

I have calculated ratings for the bottom 14 teams, so excluding LIV, TOT, ARS, CHL, MCI & MUN. Teams that we could reasonably include in a rotation should they prove to have a 4.5m option or a 5m if we are feeling a fit flush.

I’ve worked out EVERY COMBINATION of these 14 teams for the 2x1, 3x1, 4x2 & Uber. I wanted to throw my laptop out of the window at one point, but I eventually worked out a workflow that meant it wasn’t too painful. But all up votes are of course welcome 

METHODOLOGY
- Assign each team a rating for how likely they are to score at home & away.
o I used my opinion, yours may vary of course.
- Compare the ratings in each fixture.
- Work out the difficulty to keep a clean sheet for each team per fixture.
- Work out every combination of teams up to and inc. GW19
2x1 = 91 combinations
3x1 = 364 combinations
4x2 = 1001 combinations
Uber = 2002 combinations (Excel almost melted down here)
- Assign every combination a rating based on the total fixture scores for the games you will actually play divided by the total $ cost.
o By this I mean that in the 4x2, for example, each week I use the two best fixtures to contribute to the rating, not all four fixtures.
- No transfers are assumed in this, it’s fire & forget. Obviously even better results could be got by making changes at strategic points.
- The worksheets are at the point where they are almost totally data driven, so I should be able to make changes very easily.

ASSUMPTIONS
We can find a nailed on defender from these teams at the price suggested. E.g. EVE rate highly but assuming $4.5m Alcaraz with play is another factor, and so $5m is the 100$ safe amount really.

FLEXIBILITY
I’ve seen a few people suggest that when an injury comes or a player falls out of favour then the rotations break down. I don’t go for that. If for instance something happens in GW6 to my NEW def, then I simply look at the ratings for GW7 onwards with my other defenders and bring in another NEW or someone from a team that now makes the rotation even better.

TEAM SCORES
As a baseline, here are the ratings for each team based on just their own fixtures over GW1-19.
The lower the score the better.

ARS -50.0
AVL 12.5
CAR 58.0
CHE -56.5
CPL 35.0
EVE -21.0
FUL 24.0
HUL 50.5
LIV -41.5
MCI -46.5
MUN -59.0
NEW 11.5
NOR 43.0
SOT 4.5
STO 23.5
SUN 15.0
SWA 2.0
TOT -50.5
WBA 23.5
WHM 22.0

PART ONE – 2 x 1
Let’s start with the easiest, two defenders, one of which you play every week.
What we are looking to do here is lower the above scores by combining two teams.
e.g. WHM are at 22, but if we combine with a defender from another team we want to drive that 22 down much lower for the combination.

TOP 50 PAIRS
e.g. By themselves EVE are -21, FUL are +24, combine them and they are -38.
SWA & EVE are better but cost more, so rated lower.

Note – CPL have an annoying habit of having their good fixtures when some of the strong lower 14 teams face difficult fixtures, so they tend to crop up in the rotations. This scares me, so always buyer beware of CPL rotations!

Score - Combined fixture score
$ - Price for cheapest combo
Rating - Score / Price

Pair Score $ Rating
1 FUL EVE -38.5 9.0 -4.28
2 SWA EVE -40.5 9.5 -4.26
3 SOT EVE -37.5 9.0 -4.17
4 CPL EVE -32.0 8.5 -3.76
5 WBA EVE -35.0 9.5 -3.68
6 STO EVE -33.5 9.5 -3.53
7 AVL EVE -31.0 9.0 -3.44
8 NEW EVE -30.5 9.0 -3.39
9 HUL EVE -27.5 8.5 -3.24
10 SUN EVE -28.5 9.0 -3.17
11 NEW SWA -29.5 9.5 -3.11
12 SWA NEW -29.5 9.5 -3.11
13 NEW SOT -26.0 9.0 -2.89
14 SOT NEW -26.0 9.0 -2.89
15 WHM EVE -25.5 9.0 -2.83
16 CAR EVE -23.0 8.5 -2.71
17 SOT WHM -24.0 9.0 -2.67
18 WHM SOT -24.0 9.0 -2.67
19 SOT WBA -24.0 9.5 -2.53
20 WBA SOT -24.0 9.5 -2.53
21 NOR EVE -22.5 9.0 -2.50
22 SOT SWA -22.5 9.5 -2.37
23 SWA SOT -22.5 9.5 -2.37
24 CPL SOT -19.0 8.5 -2.24
25 SOT CPL -19.0 8.5 -2.24
26 AVL SWA -20.5 9.5 -2.16
27 SWA AVL -20.5 9.5 -2.16
28 SWA WHM -20.5 9.5 -2.16
29 WHM SWA -20.5 9.5 -2.16
30 FUL SWA -20.0 9.5 -2.11
31 SWA FUL -20.0 9.5 -2.11
32 AVL STO -18.5 9.5 -1.95
33 STO AVL -18.5 9.5 -1.95
34 SOT SUN -17.0 9.0 -1.89
35 SUN SOT -17.0 9.0 -1.89
36 SOT STO -17.5 9.5 -1.84
37 STO SOT -17.5 9.5 -1.84
38 NEW SUN -16.5 9.0 -1.83
39 SUN NEW -16.5 9.0 -1.83
40 FUL WHM -16.0 9.0 -1.78
41 WHM FUL -16.0 9.0 -1.78
42 AVL WBA -16.0 9.5 -1.68
43 WBA AVL -16.0 9.5 -1.68
44 AVL SOT -15.0 9.0 -1.67
45 SOT AVL -15.0 9.0 -1.67
46 STO SWA -16.5 10.0 -1.65
47 SWA STO -16.5 10.0 -1.65
48 STO WHM -15.5 9.5 -1.63
49 WHM STO -15.5 9.5 -1.63
50 FUL NEW -14.0 9.0 -1.56
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1. Absinthe 42
  10 years, 10 months ago
  #1 new Home Crowd feature, edit our posts! Bloody formatting.
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2. Tommytour
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Excellent stuff, so I should keep Coleman then 😉
  
  What's your defence looking like?
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  1. Absinthe 42
    10 years, 10 months ago
    I'm thinking a 4x2, more of which to come when I get to that article.
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3. Just A Hat
  10 years, 10 months ago
  I didn't bother reading this as I'm going with 3 Liverpool defenders but I upvoted it as it seems useful to a lot of people!
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  1. Tommytour
    10 years, 10 months ago
    What 3?
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4. Ryan
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Could you please clarify the maths a bit more I don't understand how you got to this equation
  
  "e.g. By themselves EVE are -21, FUL are +24, combine them and they are -38"
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  1. Absinthe 42
    10 years, 10 months ago
    EVE's 19 fixtures come to -21 on my difficulty scale.
    FUL's 19 fixtures come to +24, so they are harder to gain clean sheets from.
    
    However when you put the two teams together it comes to -38 which is much better, therefore FUL contribute quite well whenever EVE have a hard fixture so they make a good rotation partner for EVE in a 2x1.
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    1. Ryan
      10 years, 10 months ago
      Ok I think I get it. Is there a way we can work out 5 way rotations? Perhaps you know say the top 50 combinations?
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      1. Absinthe 42
        10 years, 10 months ago
        As mentioned in my original post, I've got them all. ALL 2002 OF THEM.
        Coming to a post once we've done the 3x1s & 4x2s.
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    2. Absinthe 42
      10 years, 10 months ago
      Ryan, -21 & +24 are not mathematical inputs to any equation that gives -38. It's just the scores for the fixtures.
      
      I'll list them now.
      
      GW EVE FUL Low
      1 -2.5 3 -2.5
      2 -3 1.5 -3
      3 -2.5 3 -2.5
      4 1 -2.5 -2.5
      5 -0.5 6 -0.5
      6 -3 -4.5 -4.5
      7 2 -3 -3
      8 -5 2 -5
      9 -0.5 3 -0.5
      10 1 2 1
      11 -1.5 5 -1.5
      12 0.5 -1.5 -1.5
      13 -3.5 3 -3.5
      14 2.5 1.5 1.5
      15 2.5 -2 -2
      16 -4 4 -4
      17 0 1.5 0
      18 -2.5 1 -2.5
      19 -2 1 -2
      Sum -21 24 -38.5
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      1. Ryan
        10 years, 10 months ago
        Yep got it, I understand now. Looking forward to when you post the other combinations.
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        Twelve years a slave
        10 years, 10 months ago
        I worry you are giving Everton too much credit. Under Martinez they could be leaky
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        Absinthe 42
        10 years, 10 months ago
        Yes they could. But they are a consistent top 8 team, so it's hard to rate them lower based on a 'could'.
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        OShaughnessy
        10 years, 10 months ago
        @Triggerlips
        
        On the surface / "our gut" tells us that this is the case however, the Reddit user 'layendecker' had an interesting take on this subject entitled :
        
        "Is Martinez a better defensive tactician than he is getting credit for?"
        
        Some highlights from the piece:
        
        "Using the OPTA stat of 'Big Chances', we can see that Wigan hardly gave away more clear cut opportunities than Everton.
        Everton gave away 70 and Wigan 73- this indicates that it was not the tactics that were flawed, but the last ditch defending and goalkeeping."
        
        "[There is a] Clean Sheet - Big Chance relationship... [a] correlation between big chances and clean sheets... Which was somewhat obvious anyway... But Wigan are still way off the normal line..."
        
        "I have tagged it as better and worse 'luck'... Wigan [were] just unfortunate."
        
        "If the above analysis is correct then it seems like Everton could become a formidable defensive force.
        If we combine Martinez's seemingly underrated tactical nous with Everton's last ditch goalkeeping and defending, then that backline may be grossly underpriced."
        
        So with all that, perhaps you gentlemen may look into the links provided for the underlying stats / assumptions & shed some light on the subject for the rest of us plebs?
        
        http://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/1irz54/analysis_is_martinez_a_better_defensive_tactician/
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        FISSH
        10 years, 10 months ago
        Shame this is football, and as we know, anything can happen. Good luck with all this, but I fear it will be useless.
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        OShaughnessy
        10 years, 10 months ago
        Ah, yes the "Any Two Cards Can Win" theory.
        
        Very true... I mean in Hold'em 72 will crack AA's 12% of the time!
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        Ginkapo FPL
        10 years, 10 months ago
        HAHA Thats stolen from here, I pretty much wrote that word for word a month ago. Gotta love reddit.
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        OShaughnessy
        10 years, 10 months ago
        @Ginkapo I tried to give creddit where creddit was due.
        
        In any case, great piece & Baines for me!
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        Ginkapo FPL
        10 years, 10 months ago
        😀 thx
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5. thetinkerman
  10 years, 10 months ago
  "But all up votes are of course welcome"
  
  *downvotes* 😉
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6. In Tommy We Trust
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Great work Absinthe.
  
  I see NEW/SWA is the highest non Everton rotation. I've been favouring a NEW/SWA/HUL 3*1 as you call it. Can I have a sneaky preview of where this ranks for 3*1 🙂
  
  btw, my season ticker uses the exact same theory 😉
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  1. Ryan
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Where is this season ticker of yours, I couldn't find it on your blog. I found the link but it wasn't there?
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    1. In Tommy We Trust
      10 years, 10 months ago
      It's in the sidebar of my blog under FPL Management weaponry.
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      1. Ryan
        10 years, 10 months ago
        Bloody hell that is one intense ticker. I'll need to spend a bit of time on it to figure out how I can use it best.
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        In Tommy We Trust
        10 years, 10 months ago
        Cheers Ryan. You can wack your own tinker configurable values to make it your own
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  2. In Tommy We Trust
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Just a quick post of thanks for all the hard work you must have put into this analysis 🙂
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    1. Absinthe 42
      10 years, 10 months ago
      No worries 🙂
      
      I have considered a method to improve the ratings over night.
      Not sure if I can pull it off, but I'll give it a go.
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7. Ryan
  10 years, 10 months ago
  3x1 rotation http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2013/07/22/moving-target-danny-graham/?hc_page=20#hc_comment_5088365
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8. Ryan
  10 years, 10 months ago
  4x2 rotation
  
  http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2013/07/22/moving-target-danny-graham/?hc_page=20#hc_comment_5088472
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  1. krumcake
    10 years, 10 months ago
    Thank you for posting the links!
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9. Ryan
  10 years, 10 months ago
  5 way uber rotation
  
  http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2013/07/22/moving-target-danny-graham/?hc_page=20#hc_comment_5088479
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10. In Tommy We Trust
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Cheers Ryan for the links
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Tommytour
10 years, 10 months ago
In UFPL I will have a defence of

Mignolet
Mert Kos Toure

😎
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barca_xi
10 years, 10 months ago
how it looks

foster

mertsacker,,clyne, azpilicueta

hazard, cazorla, silva, koren,

rvp, lambert, berba

sub:davis, thomas, chester, perr

how can i fit bale?? is it risky going without bale ??
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1. GreennRed
  10 years, 10 months ago
  It is risky without Bale. SOmeone posted here that Torres, Mata and Azplicueta won't start 1st game cos they'll be tired after a Spain friendly somewhere that week? Not sure about that though.
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2. Rabid Dog
  10 years, 10 months ago
  Very risky going without Bale although you do have the added bonus of having RVP.
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