We close our coverage of Gameweek 8 by investigating how faith is gradually being restored in a failed pre-season “essential”, whilst considering the potential role played by City’s cast of differentials. We round-off by pondering whether those clinging to hopes of rotation and diminishing form for Arsenal’s unstoppable midfield starlet, will ultimately be forced to swallow their pride.
The Player
Prior to Saturday’s haul in the win over Cardiff, Eden Hazard was the most-sold asset in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game. Having registered nine goals and 16 assists in his debut campaign, Fantasy managers had looked to Hazard in pre-season, anticipating that the Belgian would hit the ground running from Gameweek 1. With a double fixture booked in, Hazard found his way into thousands of initial squads, only to suffer significant ownership losses week by week as he struggled to meet our lofty expectations.
Hazard avoided Jose Mourinho’s much publicised rotation policy to start the opening six league matches but returned just a single assist in that run. Meanwhile, team-mate Oscar, given the number 10 role ahead of Juan Mata, opened the campaign with a series of bright displays and two goals to emerge as the weapon of choice amongst Chelsea’ attacking midfield assets.
Oscar remains a popular target. Boosted by his fourth goal of the season in Saturday’s win, the Brazilian is now priced identically to Hazard at 9.0. That change appears to be significant, with the tide now turning towards Hazard.
With Hazard’s 14% ownership likely to include a significant portion of inactive managers, it’s difficult to assess just how much of a differential he can provide over Oscar, or how long he’ll trail the Brazilian. However, there are other factors in Hazard’s favour.
Mourinho appears to class him as an “untouchable”, having started him in every match when fully fit. While Oscar will suffer rotation, Hazard appears to offer a little more security. If we discard Oscar as an alternative, the Belgian’s price looks hugely favourable. He ended 2012/13 priced at 9.6 and our members need only run a comparison to last season’s averages to see he is producing numbers that suggest he can deliver strong value.
While Fernando Torres may eventually emerge as the most viable option up front for Mourinho’s side, it’s unlikely that we will look beyond the midfield when it comes to investing in his attacking assets. With just two FPL points currently separating Hazard and Oscar, it remains to be seen if this presents us Fantasy managers with a dilemma that will, over the season, prove significant.
The Team
When it comes to differentials with the potential to deliver double figure returns, we need look no further than Man City. While Yaya Toure has so far monopolized the FPL investment heading in the direction of Manuel Pellegrini’s side, there is full cast of assets worthy of our attention.
The 3-1 win at Upton Park has seen both David Silva and Sergio Aguero confirm their heavy-hitter status, with the Argentine striker attracting more transfers in than any other forward in the FPL this week. Silva presents a less obvious option given the presence of Toure in so many squads and the unshakable faith in Mesut Ozil as the big midfield investment.
Like Hazard, however, Silva is putting in displays and producing numbers to suggest that he will improve on last season’s output and, with a price tag of 9.3, could present strong value. Given City’s goalscoring return so far, there’s an argument to say that he could even keep pace with Ozil if given comparable pitch time.
With the emphasis on attack and Vincent Kompany still sidelined, investment in the Pellegrini defence will remain subdued. That may only change for brief windows in the season, when Aleks Kolarov could enter the equation due to his attacking potential. We’ve been stung by the Serbian’s promise before but there’s little doubt that he, like Silva, could prove a decisive differential if he can finally deliver and we can time our interest with a run of City clean sheets. Our members can look to their tickers and pencil in the Gameweek 26-31 spell as a window to re-examine Kolarov as an option.
The Talking Point
When Saturday’s teamsheets were named, those who had, to that point, resisted the allure of Aaron Ramsey, received a boost. It proved no more than temporary, though as Ramsey emerged from the bench to replace a concussed Mathieu Flamini and claim a goal and assist in the 4-1 win over Norwich on his way to a third double figure return of the season. The Welshman continues to defy all expectations and deliver incredible value for those who jumped on board early on in his remarkable run of form.
Those who have yet to acquire him continue to hope that Ramsey’s form will dip, backing the theory that, on consultation of the statistics and data, he is over-delivering.
Wenger’s teamsheet did at least hint that Ramsey’s relentless returns could be halted by sporadic rests in league outings. The addition of Santi Cazorla and, eventually, Theo Walcott, to the starting lineup could also see Arsenal’s goals and assist spread wider, perhaps diminishing his output further.
Maybe these are forlorn hopes. Desperate straw clutching theories that could ultimately see the doubters and naysayers lose further ground, only to eventually be forced to concede on a player who has taken us, and his manager, by surprise.
