Boxing Day offers little opportunity to rest the pains of excess. Our heads must be clear to ponder a rare scenario that perfectly captures the form-versus-fixtures debate and potentially splits the Fantasy football community.
Arguably, we should tattoo the captainβs armband to Luis Suarez. His recent performances have brought him four consecutive double-figure hauls in a run of goals that has mercilessly punished those slow to adopt him to their lineups. Itβs difficult to recall a player in such form β Ronaldo in his pomp is the only name who can come close. Considering this, the captain decision, both today and from this point on, should be a foregone conclusion.
The problem, of course, is that such a strategy is undoubtedly a βplay safeβ option. Suarez is owned by over 50% of the Fantasy Premier League manager base, while Smarty Pantsβ regular analysis revealed that 100% of the top 1000 managers ahead of Gameweek 17 owned him.
Clearly, captaining Suarez is the obvious solution but it also means that, when it comes to weapons at your disposal in the battle to make up ground, youβre effectively removing the captaincy from your arsenal.
If I was flying high in mini-leagues and the rankings, I would unquestionably captain Suarez and leave the rest of my side to help sneak further progress. Regular readers of this column and listeners to the ScoutCast will know all too well that Iβm currently not in that position.
While I consider turning my back on Suarez a drastic measure, reserved perhaps for an end of season βHail Maryβ to gain ground, Iβve also got to assess the full picture that todayβs programme presents. There are very few fixtures that offer the opportunity to ignore Suarez with any real security β Man City away is certainly one of them.
Suarez possesses outstanding form but will travel to the Etihad to test that against a defence that has conceded just five league goals in eight home matches and 37 shots inside the box β the fewest of any team in front of their own fans.
To counter this, Liverpool are amongst the most effective away teams on show. Statistically, the most threatening side on the road in the league in terms of chances created.
That, in itself, is a fascinating head-to-head scenario but, when I consider that the majority of Suarez owners will, quite rightly, be backing the Uruguayan with the captaincy, the potential rewards of taking a risk and looking elsewhere begin to appeal.
Deliciously, there is a temptation on offer to me which is an almost perfect antithesis to Suarez.
Despite a run of four outings without a goal, Romelu Lukaku somehow has more appeal to me than the Wayne Rooney option (who has long left my squad). At his best, the Belgian is capable of exploding points. More significantly, heβs facing up to a Sunderland side rooted to the foot of the table who are likely to be lining up with a makeshift centre-back pairing with Wes Brown banned and John OβShea crocked. Gus Poyetβs defence looks vulnerable and theyβre up against a side which have averaged two goals a game at home. An Everton win looks likely and, unless Roberto Martinez pulls a major surprise with his teamsheet, Lukaku will surely get every opportunity to break out of his dry spell.
At this point I have to contemplate the potential swing this could achieve. Suarez may well maintain his scoring run but, to strike major blows, Liverpool would have to score two, if not three goals at the Etihad. Given the form of both sides, City are also likely to score, so Suarezβs monopoly on the maximum bonus is at risk βΒ weβve almost taken those points for granted.
While turning your back on Suarez represents a gamble, then, he and Liverpool would likely have to match Arsenalβs recent Etihad output and possibly win the match to achieve another double-figure haul. Heβs more than capable of that β Iβve given up trying to fathom the capabilities of a player who seems almost unstoppable.
Even so, as someone βplayingβ Fantasy Football, I have to weigh the risk and reward of going against my better judgement. I havenβt the luxury of a high rank and, if I consider that Suarez will be my captain week after week, the option of using the captaincy to make up ground will be very limited.
Today is different. Itβs a chance to make that call with some logic at play. However, Suarez is a player who defies logic and his form is capable of flattening our preconceptions of βfixture difficultyβ. Typically, for every argument, there is a counter theory equally convincing.
A few weeks ago many, including myself, were claiming that Suarez had made Fantasy Football easy and yet, for those looking to make up ground, this morning he plays his part in presenting one of the most difficult dilemmas in memory.
Whatever youβre doing today, get it done before 5.30. One way or another, this eveningβs match is going to make or break the Gameweek.
Can Suarez ruin Christmas? That might just be going too far, even in my house.
