In Part One of this article, I revealed some of the principles that helped steer me last season’s Fantasy Premier League crown: the time to take in matches, allied to the analysis using the tools in the Fantasy Football Scout members’ area.
I touched on my use of the Rate My Team tool when it comes to governing transfers and in this second part I’m going to go into more detail on how I put the tool to use over the course of the season. I’ll also offer you my views on transfer policy – on the merits of taking a punt and points hits.
Building in Rate My Team
One of the things I harked on about in Part One was the need to aspire to consistency – both across your squad and also over the course of every Gameweek. One-off big Gameweek scores are great but count for very little if they’re followed by five red arrows. I believe your team needs to be aiming at 55-65 FPL points per week minimum. It is far more likely for this to happen if you spread the risk throughout Gameweeks, rather than sign up the latest big thing because he’s playing Burnley next week (he might have Crystal Palace away then Chelsea at home in the next two fixtures and do nothing). It’s much better to have a player on Rate My Team (RMT) who is spreading the points over the weeks to come rather than someone whose fortunes are a little more erratic. For the squad/bench players who won’t be playing as much, RMT is also important for checking their returns in the weeks you plan to utilise them.
The way to use the Rate My Team function differs between pre-season and after the first Gameweek. Before the campaign begins, start to use the RMT tool to check how well your team will do over a long period, about ten weeks or more.
This will depend on your strategy; if you’re planning to wildcard early then just focus on the first few weeks. Personally, I think planning a wildcard can lead to it being wasted; you should always be focused on doing well without it – imagine it’s not there, then it can be used at a more advantageous point where it can get you out of an injury crisis, be used to set up for a double Gameweek or respond to a big swing in fixtures.
Ten Gameweeks into the season, the team ratings in RMT will have changed markedly, along with player form. Your squad will have also been forced to adjust and you may have even have laid down your wildcard. With this in mind, it’s rarely worth planning beyond that Gameweek 10 point when assessing your initial squad. The only area where long-term planning can help is regarding goalkeepers and defenders – it’s unlikely you’ll want to spend too many transfers in this area so finding some “fire and forget” options is advantageous.
If you pick your planning cut-off point, stick to it and then try out several different teams. Again, remember that, up to Gameweek 10, you have free transfers to tweak your squad so a player selected in your initial lineup is by no means fixed for those ten Gameweeks. Do your planning with this in mind and even pencil in your future transfers.
Some players should, by Gameweek 10, have emerged as clear value for money so build the squad around them. Bring players in and out, checking the overall score of the squad in RMT over that period. Obviously the aim is to get that total score as high as possible. Remember, though, that the RMT scores are projections of the future and, while reasonably accurate, are not definite values, so if you do feel a player is over/underrated, then act accordingly.
The amazing thing that RMT does that would take hours to do manually is picking which players you would include in you starting XI each week based on projected scores. This means that it’s an incredibly sophisticated way of looking at an accurate spread of likely points scoring and enables you to see the influence of players over a long period as opposed to week by week.
Once the squad is set up for the long haul, bring in the number of Gameweeks, first to six, then to three. This is where you are looking to see if there are changes you can make in the short term, where an alternative player could reap big rewards. It is helpful to establish when a transfer will have an effect on your overall team, as then you can plan your transfer strategy.
I often struggle to understand why people are averse to planning transfers; I feel it makes life easier in the long run. In some of the early months, I knew the transfer I would be making weeks in advance as RMT demonstrated that it would have a significant increase on total points in the weeks that follow.
I would try to remain flexible, however. If a player unexpectedly became established as a consistent source of points and/or was on good form or rising in ownership, I would work to incorporate them into my plans, or use a hit to get them in, maintaining my original transfer plans for the squad.
I had no fixed rule on when I would change a player for a hit but if the potential gain in points was around six or more on the RMT, over three-six Gameweeks, then it would often be an obvious move. Hits can make sense; when used wisely and in situations with the highest chances of return, they are actually sensible moves.
During the season, the method of using the RMT tool reverses: check how a player coming in to your team affects your projected tally for three weeks, then six, then long term. There will often be three players, for example, that you would like to bring in for the short-term but only two of those work mid-term. Work out what’s best for the squad and the projected total score but, initially, focus on the upcoming Gameweeks.
The RMT tool also enables you to pick up on the weak links in the squad throughout the season. Each week, have a look at RMT and anyone who is not pulling their weight needs to go: it should be illustrated quite clearly what position you need to target for a replacement, and this should aid your weekly transfer. If you’re happy with the squad, as predominantly you should be, tweaking it should only take up the occasional transfer but don’t neglect the long term in favour of a form player. If two transfers need to be made to find the right balance in maintaining a consistent Gameweek score then so be it. Find two players that will increase the projected points by at least four over a three to six weeks period and take the hit. Allowing yourself two transfers is also advantageous if there is a significant swing in fixture difficulty on show as it can often free you up to assess a larger pool of players.
The Punt
In general don’t take punts. It’s boring, I know, but winning can be boring, just ask Jose Mourinho.
I define a “punt” as any player that isn’t being talked about as an option by a noticeable proportion of Fantasy managers. The FFS comment boards can be a great indicator of this. The other barometer to use here is the activity of the “casual” Fantasy manager. Usually it’s better to bring in the players that are proving popular targets with the masses: it’s easy to locate these on the FPL site under “transfers in” on the status page.
Unfortunately, this can often leave us with a relatively small pool of players that are viable Fantasy picks with the wisdom of the crowd, as Mark has previously outlined, more often than not, an effective measure of who will perform.
Backing popular targets also helps with team value, although, of course, the crowd are not always spot on; the measure of good Fantasy manager is selecting those times to risk going against the grain.
The Members’ area again helps with this as you have access to statistics that can highlight if a player is under or over performing. There will be bandwagons and maverick left-field picks that earn a fan club but are best avoided, while others you should simply monitor over a longer time period before leaping aboard the bandwagon.
The Members’ area may keep you coming back to a player because of his stats but, if the community is unsure, then delaying the acquisition can be a wise move. If it’s a proven player who has shown form in the past and your gut is telling you to back him, then go for it. But avoid making crazy transfers thinking you’re a genius: you’re probably not. I know I’m not.
The Stats Tables
Although I neglected the sortable stats tables compared to the other tools in the Members’ area, it’s here that you’re find the most information available when looking for potential under-the-radar targets. The tables provide the data that, if utilised correctly, can find the differentials for Fantasy managers who like a punt or need something a little different to fill a gap in the squad created from other transfers.
The Rotation Policy
I’m not talking about the whims of Premier League managers here; I’m referring to the rotation of your use of the Members’ area tools. It’s much better to use the tools in unison and make the most of the data available. I found it effective to cycle through the different tools, adding and eliminating targets throughout a session. This prevents reliance on any particular tool and makes it less likely you will miss a glaring problem with a transfer.
The Final Word
If in doubt, go through everything again. Some weeks it took me two minutes to make a transfer as it was evident who needed to be brought in, even taking hits can sometimes be incredibly obvious. Try to be decisive: the Members’ area is great for this as confidence is usually based on knowledge and information – you’ll find you can be more decisive when backed with the opinion of others, plus a wealth of data that supports a certain view.
Towards the end of the season, I was perhaps less decisive but I found it was best to take as much time as possible, perhaps even an hour to go over my watchlist, then sleep on it before making my trade.
Some people may think that my approach is based too strongly on statistical analysis but it’s the reading of that data, alongside watching matches, that really leads to results. It makes sense to use data to inform your decisions rather than just opinion or a hunch. It is not about creating a team based on stats alone, but using the tools to eliminate the weak options and streamline your watchlist, to avoid the bandwagon flops and ultimately provide a strategy that can be successful.
Overall, try not to over think. The Members’ area was mostly helpful in that it made the next transfer easier to find, the key target often stood out and I could then just sit back and watch my transfers do their thing. That’s much more fun, in my opinion, than wondering why the punt you took just got subbed off on 59 minutes with a yellow card. Play the percentages, watch the matches so that you can do all you can to eliminate mistakes and hope that a bit of luck arrives on a regular basis.
