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12 August 2014 24 comments
Bøwstring The Carp Bøwstring The Carp
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With just days to go until the launch of the new Premier League season, I thought I’d give a quick run down of the top differentials to look out for as you finalise your teams. All the below had a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) ownership of below 10% as of August 9.

Best Teams For Differentials

Manchester City – For the most attacking side last year, Manchester City attackers seem to have a relatively low ownership with many Fantasy managers divided on whom to have. David Silva (8.1%) has been generously priced at 9.0 again this year and consistently delivers every season, with a 6.2 Points Per Game (PPG) average last year. Sergio Aguero (8.9%) has cautiously been selected by many due to his injury history, yet the Argentine had probably one of the highest threats with 9.1 PPG average over a mere 1528 minutes. Lastly, Stevan Jovetic (6.5%) steps into many FFS managers’ teams for 8.0. The Montenegrin has impressed in preseason, in addition to coming out of an impressive few cameos in the first team for Man City last season with an 8.3 PPG rating.

Newcastle this year seems to be a differential in every position, except goalkeeper Tim Krul. With many expecting Newcastle to rise up the table after their vast spending to strengthen the squad, surprisingly no player has gone over the 10% mark. New signing Siem de Jong (5.9%), at 7.0, could be a decent pick with a likely role in the hole available. Newcastle’s defence seems the most neglected area of Fantasy manager’s teams with their main defeners all under 5.0% ownership.

Southampton have made plenty of changes so far to their team, and we can expect more before the window closes. So perhaps there is an element of caution in the ownership of new signings Dusan Tadic (1.8%) and Graziano Pellé (3.7%). Having said that, those willing to punt on the former early on may be rewarded generously. Tadic, as mentioned before, has given us plenty of reasons to include him in our squad for 7.5, yet evidently many seem to be keeping tabs on the Serbian for now.

Tottenham’s Érik Lamela (2.7%) will certainly have high expectations this year after a miserable debut season in English football. The Argentine, priced at 8.0, comes in at the same price as popular pick Eriksen. Where Eriksen has set-pieces and more creative ability, perhaps Lamela can become the flair pick under Pochettino as Spurs look to find a man to replace Gareth Bale. Another forgotten man set to re-establish himself could be Jan Vertonghen (6.1%) at 6.0. The Belgian found himself playing left-back for a lot of last season under Tim Sherwood, a position he made it clear he did not like. Under Pochettino, he will start at centre-back and hopefully emulate his first season in England when he managed five goals. With Pochettino’s defensive history, he may well be set for many more clean sheet points too.

Stoke have seen a renaissance under Mark Hughes, with the Potters becoming a more dangerous side as they finished in 9th place last term. Hughes has added to his squad over the summer bringing in Mame Biram Diouf who had an impressive spell in Germany. The Senegalese striker is owned by a mere 0.5%, with many opting for the ever-popular and cheaper Bójan instead. A key figure from last season was none other than Marko Arnautovic, who only has 2.8% ownership. The strong winger managed four goals and 10 assists and could be set for another great season with a 6.5 cost. Lastly, Robert Huth (0.7%) stands out as a great option for the coming season with a 5.0 price tag. The tall German has an eye for goal as his history shows, yet he may be eased back in after a knee injury ended his season last year.

Sunderland have many differentials, yet it remains to be seen where the points will come from. Cheap options such as Patrick van Aanholt (0.9%) could be a decent option for those that wish to use cheap rotation in defence. Adam Johnson (7.5%) seems the best midfield pick at 6.5 and has been very generously priced considering he was the 11th best midfielder in FPL last season with all those ahead of him being priced at 7.5 or higher.

Swansea have an array of differentials available to us Fantasy managers. New signing Bafetimbi Gomis (0.9%) is certainly one to watch if he can nail down a starting place. At the moment his 7.0 price tag is a bit steep, but should he cement a role in Swansea’s first team, we may see him replicate the form of his Lyon days. The popular Gylfi Sigurdsson (7.3%) has gone somewhat unnoticed in the wider community due to his relatively low ownership. His permanent move to Swansea could see him return to his form of yesteryear, and at 6.5, is emerging as a strong contender for bargain player of the season. In defence, Neil Taylor (0.7%), priced at 4.5, seems an easy route to Swansea’s back-line at the moment with Kyle Bartley (0.4%) also an option at 4.0 at the moment with the departure of Chico Flores. Another player to keep an eye on is Jefferson Montero, priced at 6.0, with an ownership of 0.3%.

West Brom are a team that are worth keeping an eye on under new manager Alan Irvine. Apart from Ben Foster (4.6%) at 4.5 there are no real standout differentials, with uncertainty surrounding the back-four. Stephane Sessegnon (0.6%) could return to form, but at 6.0, it is probably best to wait and see how the new team plays in the early games.

West Ham – like Newcastle, the entire West Ham team are differentials, with Kevin Nolan, at 5.3% ownership, the highest owned player in the squad. Similarly to Sunderland, it seems difficult to spot where the points will come from in midfield. With Andy Carroll out, Mauro Zárate (1.2%) and Enner Valencia (0.9%), at 6.5 and 7.0 respectively, would be the likely source of goals in the team should the latter be deemed fit to start the season. West Ham’s defence is arguably overpriced, for example left-back Aaron Cresswell.

Best of the Rest

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (1.9%) The Arsenal midfielder could be an early differential due to Walcott’s absence. He could be a decent punt for 6.5, averaging 6.9 PPG last season over his 529 minutes played.

Michael Duff (2.2%) The Burnley man seems likely to start for 4.0 but remains under the radar among most managers.

Scott Dann (0.4%) The Crystal Palace defender has a surprisingly low ownership given the hype around his side’s clean sheet potential this year. The 5.0-priced Dann was drafted in by manager Tony Pulis in January and featured heavily, tallying five clean sheets and a goal in his 14 games played.

James Chester (0.9%) The Hull defender is perhaps another option that we wouldn’t expect to have such a low ownership. Hull, with a European campaign upcoming, have broadened their squad, yet it seems Chester is set to see plenty of game time for a mere 4.5, in addition to Hull’s great run of opening fixtures.

Liam Moore (1.4%) has impressed during pre-season, with Leicester putting in with some good performances and has surely given manager Nigel Pearson food for thought with regards to his selection in the starting XI. Last year, Moore was a key figure in the heart of the defence but was dropped to the bench in the latter half of the season where Leicester kept nine clean sheets in their final 18 games.

Jose Enrique (1.0%) had a year to forget with an early injury that kept him out of Liverpool’s impressive season. The strong left-back managed two assists and three clean sheets in the Red’s first seven games, averaging 5.2 PPG. Likewise, Phillippe Coutinho (4.6%), at 8.0, could be an alternative to other Liverpool options, with the news that Lallana will miss the start of the season.

Ashley Young’s popularity has soared in the FFS community in recent games, and with a price of 5.5 and an ownership of 4.6%, he could be the ultimate differential this year. The United man has impressed over pre-season and could still have a first-team place under new manager Louis van Gaal. Capable of playing in right-midfield or left-midfield as a sort of advanced wing-back, his ability to get forward and track back has appealed to United’s new style of play. With  Antonia Valencia picking up an injury last game, and Rafael’s inconsistency, it may well suit United to play Young on the right when left-back Luke Shaw is fit.

High Ownership Players To Watch Out For

On the other end of the spectrum, high-owned players that don’t seem to feature in a lot of Fantasy Football Scout  managers’ teams include:

Pablo Zabaleta (14.4%), Leighton Baines (14.0%), Seamus Coleman (13.6%), Yaya Touré (22.9%), Mirallas (11.6%). It is worth keeping these players in mind when finalising our teams before next weekend as a high score from any of this group could hurt non-owners.

Bøwstring The Carp Active since 2011 on FFS. Occasional poster and community article writer. Twitter: @MattKearney92 Follow them on Twitter

24 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Denis Denis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Ashley Young is definitely piquing my interest ... could end up being 5.5 better spent that Bojan?

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  2. Borgus Aurelius
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Does anyone know, or would anyone like to take a guess at the likely Stoke defensive line up for the first few games?

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    1. Axel5000
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Bardsley - Shawcross - Wilson - Pieters to start GW1. Huth to replace Wilson as soon as he's fully fit. Hughes started what looked like his starting 11 in a friendly against Real Betis last week and his back four was as above.

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      1. Borgus Aurelius
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks a lot for that!

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  3. v12w12
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    A: Joevtic/ Sterling

    B: Dzeko/ Siggy or Snod

    Cheers

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    1. biomy
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A

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  4. @BigChrisso
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Free Beer

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  5. Benteke10
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Would really appreciate your thoughts on this set up 🙂

    Krull/Foster
    Terry - Ward - Chester
    Fabregas - Ramsey - Mata - Henderson
    Rooney - Costa - Jovetic

    - Albrighton - Ferdinand - Wisdom

    Cheers! 🙂

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    1. Benteke10
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Fken wrong thread ffs..

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  6. The Woyzeck Warriors
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Austin?

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  7. The Woyzeck Warriors
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Schurrle? OOP, great stats and fixtures. Gametime is the main issue but could step up this year.

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    1. timPgoodwin
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I was looking at that too, at 7.5 is an option, I'm waiting to see his game time this w'kend, will most likely play on the right for 60 minutes at least.

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    2. Paradoxymoron
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I still see him being most effective as an impact sub. I'd be surprised if he starts in the majority of games this season. As far as Chelsea are concerned Hazard and Fabregas are the only midfielders I'd consider as sure starters. Then again, Schurrle did have a great world cup, and is significantly cheaper than Fabregas or Hazard. He's a player who I'll be watching closely. If he hits a purple patch he could be well worth transferring in.

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  8. d_manga_fanatic
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    How nailed on is Bartley for Swansea? If he is that nailed on, I'm thinking of doing swapping

    N.Taylor -> Barley and
    S.Davis -> A. Young

    Thoughts?

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  9. vyvanater
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Jerome Williams of Palace has finally been added at 4.5, nailed on?

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  10. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Last season Silva scored 5.6ppg, Aguero 6.8ppg and Jovetic 2.6ppg.

    Were the higher figures that you quoted actually for points per 90 minutes, not points per game?

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    1. Bøwstring The Carp
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Yea, I took total points and divided by total minutes played to find an average points per minutes played then just multiplied by 90 to give a representation of a 90 minute game.

      Its a lot more representative of the players ability than taking his points and dividing by the amount of appearances he's made. Rather than taking 34 points and dividing by the 13 games Jovetic played to get 2.6, if you factor in the minutes its a whole lot more accurate. Otherwise this would be more of a Points Per Appearance (PPA) rating.

      So 34/368 = 0.09239 X 90 = 8.31 points per 90 minutes played

      But obviously it doesn't mean much unless the player is playing regularly.

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      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Points per 90 minutes can sometimes be quite misleading. FPL scores are per game not per 90 minutes, so I prefer to look at points per game.

        To take an extreme example, if a player played a series of one minute cameos for one point a time, he would have a points per 90 minutes average of 90.0!

        Even if a player has been playing say 60 minutes per game in the past but is expected to play 90 minutes per game in the future his points for the match will not automatically increase by 50%, because his appearance and clean sheet points will not increase during that additional 30 minutes.

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      2. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        .....The player may also tire in the extra 30 minutes, because he is not used to playing that long.

        So if Jovetic starts getting more game-time he will probably get significantly more than 2.6 points per game, but he is most unlikely to get as much as 8.3 points per game.

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      3. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        .....Also, a player who is taken off after 60 minutes keeps any clean sheet points that he may have earned up to that point, while his colleagues who play the full 90 minutes will lose theirs if their team concedes a late goal.

        And more goals are scored in second halves of games than in the first halves. So an impact substitute who comes on at half time has a number of advantages over players who play the full 90 minutes. He will be less tired than those who have already played the 45 minutes of the first half, and he will be playing the half games in which more goals are likely to be scored. He is therefore likely to require fewer minutes per goal or assist than if he had played the full 90 minutes. There are many examples of impact substitutes who are less effective when playing the full 90 minutes.

        Bonus points will also be affected. It is normally much easier to earn bonus points when playing 90 minutes in a single match than if those 90 minutes are split over a couple of matches. But if a player twice scores two goals in half a match then he might get two sets of 3 bonus points, but if he scores four goals in a single match then he only gets one set of 3 bonus points.

        TL;DR:
        In short, using the points scored by a player in a number of short appearances to estimate the average number of points that he would have scored if he had played the full 90 minutes every time is far more complicated than just simply dividing his total points by his minutes played and then multiplying this by 90.

        (Also, points per game in the statistics on the FPL website refer to points per appearance, not points per 90 minutes, and that is what most of us understand by ppg. So if you are talking about points per 90 minutes then you should call them pp90m, not ppg.)

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  11. DommWright
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Ageuro or Sturridge? Why?

    Mata or Lukaku? Why?

    Thanks 🙂

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  12. DommWright
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Aguero or Sturridge? Why?
    Mata or lukaku? Why?

    Thank you 🙂

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    1. Finnexer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A - Sturridge, atleast for now - more stable, no competition, will play everygame irrespective of oppnent unless injured. Will provide assists as well.

      B - Mata, he has got the Hole role nailed! With Herrera behind him he can get forward more = scoring chances. With rooney in front his through balls/crosses have better finishing chances = assists. Plus they keep clean sheet he gets 1 point. and also for the sheer personal reason that i strongly feel lukaku will not be able to replicate the same form of last season. And looking at everton pre-season, i dont see much hope from the midfield in creating many chances.

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  13. Gibpinta
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts on my team any feedback will b greatly appficiated

    De gea, mangala,lovron,bebuchy (Cameron) (coloccine)
    Hazard,mata,sigurdsson,erickson ( al ahmadi )
    D costa,Rooney,jelavic

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